1
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Freeman J, Gil AF, Peralta EA, Franchetti F, López JM, Neme G. A model of long-term population growth with an application to Central West Argentina. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0307703. [PMID: 39110658 PMCID: PMC11305588 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0307703] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2024] [Accepted: 07/09/2024] [Indexed: 08/10/2024] Open
Abstract
We propose an Ideal Specialization Model to help explain the diversity of population growth trajectories exhibited across archaeological regions over thousands of years. The model provides a general set of expectations useful for guiding empirical research, and we provide a concrete example by conducting a preliminary evaluation of three expectations in Central West Argentina. We use kernel density estimates of archaeological radiocarbon, estimates of paleoclimate, and human bone stable isotopes from archaeological remains to evaluate three expectations drawn from the model's dynamics. Based on our results, we suggest that innovations in the production of food and social organization drove demographic transitions and population expansion in the region. The consistency of population expansion in the region positively associates with changes in diet and, potentially, innovations in settlement and social integration.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jacob Freeman
- Anthropology Program, Utah State University, Logan, UT, United States of America
- The Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT, United States of America
| | - Adolfo F. Gil
- Instituto de Evolución, Ecología Histórica y Ambiente, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (IDEVEA, CONICET & UTN). J. J. Urquiza 314, San Rafael, Mendoza, Argentina
- Facultad de Filosofía y Letras, Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza, Argentina
| | - Eva A. Peralta
- Instituto de Evolución, Ecología Histórica y Ambiente, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (IDEVEA, CONICET & UTN). J. J. Urquiza 314, San Rafael, Mendoza, Argentina
| | - Fernando Franchetti
- Instituto de Evolución, Ecología Histórica y Ambiente, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (IDEVEA, CONICET & UTN). J. J. Urquiza 314, San Rafael, Mendoza, Argentina
| | - José Manuel López
- Instituto Argentino de Investigaciones de las Zonas Áridas (IADIZA, CCT CONICET Mendoza), Mendoza, Argentina
| | - Gustavo Neme
- Instituto de Evolución, Ecología Histórica y Ambiente, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (IDEVEA, CONICET & UTN). J. J. Urquiza 314, San Rafael, Mendoza, Argentina
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2
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Davis DS, DiNapoli RJ, Pakarati G, Hunt TL, Lipo CP. Island-wide characterization of agricultural production challenges the demographic collapse hypothesis for Rapa Nui (Easter Island). SCIENCE ADVANCES 2024; 10:eado1459. [PMID: 38905341 PMCID: PMC11192071 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.ado1459] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2024] [Accepted: 05/16/2024] [Indexed: 06/23/2024]
Abstract
Communities in resource-poor areas face health, food production, sustainability, and overall survival challenges. Consequently, they are commonly featured in global debates surrounding societal collapse. Rapa Nui (Easter Island) is often used as an example of how overexploitation of limited resources resulted in a catastrophic population collapse. A vital component of this narrative is that the rapid rise and fall of pre-contact Rapanui population growth rates was driven by the construction and overexploitation of once extensive rock gardens. However, the extent of island-wide rock gardening, while key for understanding food systems and demography, must be better understood. Here, we use shortwave infrared (SWIR) satellite imagery and machine learning to generate an island-wide estimate of rock gardening and reevaluate previous population size models for Rapa Nui. We show that the extent of this agricultural infrastructure is substantially less than previously claimed and likely could not have supported the large population sizes that have been assumed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dylan S. Davis
- Columbia Climate School, Columbia University, New York, NY USA
- Division of Biology and Paleoenvironment, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY USA
- Columbia Center for Archaeology, Columbia University, New York, NY USA
| | - Robert J. DiNapoli
- Office of Strategic Research Initiatives, Binghamton University, Binghamton, NY USA
- Environmental Studies Program, Binghamton University, Binghamton, NY USA
| | | | - Terry L. Hunt
- School of Anthropology, University of Arizona, Tuscon, AZ USA
| | - Carl P. Lipo
- Environmental Studies Program, Binghamton University, Binghamton, NY USA
- Department of Anthropology, Binghamton University, Binghamton, NY USA
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3
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Freeman J, Robinson E, Bird D, Hard RJ, Mauldin RP, Anderies JM. The long-term expansion and recession of human populations. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2024; 121:e2312207121. [PMID: 38466852 PMCID: PMC10962983 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2312207121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/05/2023] [Accepted: 01/31/2024] [Indexed: 03/13/2024] Open
Abstract
Over the last 12,000 y, human populations have expanded and transformed critical earth systems. Yet, a key unresolved question in the environmental and social sciences remains: Why did human populations grow and, sometimes, decline in the first place? Our research builds on 20 y of archaeological research studying the deep time dynamics of human populations to propose an explanation for the long-term growth and stability of human populations. Innovations in the productive capacity of populations fuels exponential-like growth over thousands of years; however, innovations saturate over time and, often, may leave populations vulnerable to large recessions in their well-being and population density. Empirically, we find a trade-off between changes in land use that increase the production and consumption of carbohydrates, driving repeated waves of population growth over thousands of years, and the susceptibility of populations to large recessions due to a lag in the impact of humans on resources. These results shed light on the long-term drivers of human population growth and decline.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jacob Freeman
- Anthropology Program, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84321
- The Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84321
| | - Erick Robinson
- Native Environment Solutions LLC., Boise, ID 83701
- Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV 89512
- School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85281
| | - Darcy Bird
- Department of Anthropology, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164
- University of Florida, Florida Museum of Natural History, Gainesville, FL 32611
| | - Robert J Hard
- Department of Anthropology, University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX 78249
| | - Raymond P Mauldin
- Department of Anthropology, The Center for Archaeological Research, University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX 78249
| | - John M Anderies
- School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85281
- School of Sustainabilty, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85281
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4
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Gayo EM, Lima M, Gurruchaga A, Estay SA, Santoro CM, Latorre C, McRostie V. Towards understanding human-environment feedback loops: the Atacama Desert case. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2024; 379:20220253. [PMID: 37952616 PMCID: PMC10645077 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2022.0253] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2023] [Accepted: 08/15/2023] [Indexed: 11/14/2023] Open
Abstract
The overall trajectory for the human-environment interaction has been punctuated by demographic boom-and-bust cycles, phases of growth/overshooting as well as of expansion/contraction in productivity. Although this pattern has been explained in terms of an interplay between population growth, social upscaling, ecosystem engineering and climate variability, the evoked demographic-resource-complexity mechanisms have not been empirically tested. By integrating proxy data for population sizes, palaeoclimate and internal societal factors into empirical modelling approaches from the population dynamic theory, we evaluated how endogenous (population sizes, warfare and social upscaling) and exogenous (climate) variables module the dynamic in past agrarian societies. We focused on the inland Atacama Desert, where populations developed agriculture activities by engineering arid and semi-arid landscapes during the last 2000 years. Our modelling approach indicates that these populations experienced a boom-and-bust dynamic over the last millennia, which was coupled to structure feedback between population sizes, hydroclimate, social upscaling, warfare and ecosystem engineering. Thus, the human-environment loop appears closely linked with cooperation, competition, limiting resources and the ability of problem-solving. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eugenia M. Gayo
- Departamento de Geografía, Universidad de Chile, Santiago 8331051, Chile
- Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Santiago 8331150, Chile
- Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago 8370449, Chile
- Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity (IEB), Santiago 7750000, Chile
| | - Mauricio Lima
- Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Santiago 8331150, Chile
- Departamento de Ecología, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago 8331150, Chile
| | - Andone Gurruchaga
- Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Santiago 8331150, Chile
| | - Sergio A. Estay
- Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Santiago 8331150, Chile
- Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales y Evolutivas, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia 5090000, Chile
| | - Calogero M. Santoro
- Instituto de Alta Investigación, Universidad de Tarapacá, Arica 1001236, Chile
| | - Claudio Latorre
- Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity (IEB), Santiago 7750000, Chile
- Departamento de Ecología, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago 8331150, Chile
- Centro PUC Desierto de Atacama (CDA), Santiago 7821093, Chile
| | - Virginia McRostie
- Escuela de Antropología, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago 7821093, Chile
- Centro PUC Desierto de Atacama (CDA), Santiago 7821093, Chile
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5
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Lima M, Gayó EM, Gurruchaga A, Estay SA, Santoro CM. 1000 years of population, warfare, and climate change in pre-Columbian societies of the Central Andes. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0278730. [PMID: 38032927 PMCID: PMC10688747 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0278730] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/20/2022] [Accepted: 04/26/2023] [Indexed: 12/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Different Andean societies underwent processes of expansion and collapse during propitious or adverse climate conditions, resource boost or depletion along with population variations. Previous studies have emphasized that demographic collapses of polities in the Central Andes Area were triggered by warfare and the negative impacts of fluctuating climate (droughts) on crop productivity. Nevertheless, the interactions between climatic variability, demography and warfare have been less thoroughly evaluated. We develop population dynamic models to test feedback relationships between population growth, climate change and warfare in the Central Andes, where considerable regional hydroclimate variations have occurred over a millennium. Through population models, we found out that the rise and demise of social polities in the northern coast of the Central Andes appear to be a consequence of climate change. In contrast, for the highlands of Peru and the Titicaca basin, population models suggest that warfare intensity has a negative effect on population growth rates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mauricio Lima
- Departamento de Ecología, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
- Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | - Eugenia M. Gayó
- Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
- Departamento de Geografía, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
- Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, Chile
- Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity (IEB), Santiago, Chile
| | - Andone Gurruchaga
- Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | - Sergio A. Estay
- Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
- Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales y Evolutivas, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile
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6
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Carmel Y. Human societal development: is it an evolutionary transition in individuality? Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2023; 378:20210409. [PMID: 36688399 PMCID: PMC9869447 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2021.0409] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/24/2023] Open
Abstract
An evolutionary transition in individuality (ETI) occurs when a previously independent organism becomes a lower level unit within a higher hierarchical level (for example, cells in an organism, ants in a colony). Using archaeological and historical accounts from the last 12 000 years, I empirically examine the proposition that human society increasingly functions as a higher hierarchical level within which individuals integrate as lower level units. I evaluate human societal development with respect to three criteria that together indicate complexity in biological systems and serve as an operationalization scheme for ETIs: size, inseparability and specialization. The size of the largest polity has increased seven orders of magnitude, from hundreds to billions. Inseparability became nearly complete since Mesopotamian city-states, following the first appearance of intricate specialization (division of labour). Connectivity within a polity has increased rapidly during the last few centuries, and particularly within the last few decades. In view of these results, I formulate the following hypothesis: human society is undergoing an evolutionary transition in individuality, driven by socio-cultural-technological processes. This proposition requires a detailed theoretical basis and further empirical testing. I propose four predictions derived from the hypothesis that may be used to test it. This article is part of the theme issue 'Human socio-cultural evolution in light of evolutionary transitions'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yohay Carmel
- Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Technion, Haifa 32000, Israel
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7
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Bird D, Miranda L, Vander Linden M, Robinson E, Bocinsky RK, Nicholson C, Capriles JM, Finley JB, Gayo EM, Gil A, d'Alpoim Guedes J, Hoggarth JA, Kay A, Loftus E, Lombardo U, Mackie M, Palmisano A, Solheim S, Kelly RL, Freeman J. p3k14c, a synthetic global database of archaeological radiocarbon dates. Sci Data 2022; 9:27. [PMID: 35087092 PMCID: PMC8795199 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-022-01118-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/03/2021] [Accepted: 12/07/2021] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Archaeologists increasingly use large radiocarbon databases to model prehistoric human demography (also termed paleo-demography). Numerous independent projects, funded over the past decade, have assembled such databases from multiple regions of the world. These data provide unprecedented potential for comparative research on human population ecology and the evolution of social-ecological systems across the Earth. However, these databases have been developed using different sample selection criteria, which has resulted in interoperability issues for global-scale, comparative paleo-demographic research and integration with paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental data. We present a synthetic, global-scale archaeological radiocarbon database composed of 180,070 radiocarbon dates that have been cleaned according to a standardized sample selection criteria. This database increases the reusability of archaeological radiocarbon data and streamlines quality control assessments for various types of paleo-demographic research. As part of an assessment of data quality, we conduct two analyses of sampling bias in the global database at multiple scales. This database is ideal for paleo-demographic research focused on dates-as-data, bayesian modeling, or summed probability distribution methodologies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Darcy Bird
- Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History, Jena, Germany.
- Department of Anthropology, Washington State University, Pullman, USA.
| | - Lux Miranda
- Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Systems, University of Central Florida, Orlando, USA
| | - Marc Vander Linden
- Department of Archaeology and Anthropology, Bournemouth University, Poole, UK
| | - Erick Robinson
- Department of Anthropology, Boise State University, Boise, USA
| | - R Kyle Bocinsky
- Montana Climate Office, WA Franke College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, USA
| | - Chris Nicholson
- Center for Digital Antiquity, School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, USA
| | - José M Capriles
- Department of Anthropology, The Pennsylvania State University, State College, USA
| | | | - Eugenia M Gayo
- Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES) & Nucleo Milenio UPWELL, Santiago, Chile
| | - Adolfo Gil
- Instituto de Evolución, Ecología Histórica y Ambiente (CONICET & UTN), Mendoza, Argentina
| | - Jade d'Alpoim Guedes
- Department of Anthropology, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California - San Diego, San Diego, USA
| | - Julie A Hoggarth
- Department of Anthropology & Institute of Archaeology, Baylor University, Waco, USA
| | - Andrea Kay
- Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History, Jena, Germany
| | - Emma Loftus
- Department of Archaeology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | | | - Madeline Mackie
- Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Weber State University, Ogden, USA
| | - Alessio Palmisano
- Department of Ancient History, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, München, Germany
| | - Steinar Solheim
- Museum of Cultural History, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - Robert L Kelly
- Department of Anthropology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, USA
| | - Jacob Freeman
- Anthropology Program, Utah State University, Logan, USA.
- The Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, USA.
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8
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Kim H, Lee GA, Crema ER. Bayesian analyses question the role of climate in Chulmun demography. Sci Rep 2021; 11:23797. [PMID: 34893660 PMCID: PMC8664936 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-03180-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2021] [Accepted: 11/26/2021] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
We investigate the relationship between climatic and demographic events in Korea during the Chulmun period (10,000-3,500 cal. BP) by analyzing paleoenvironmental proxies and 14C dates. We focus on testing whether a cooling climate, and its potential negative impact on millet productivity around the mid 5th-millennium cal. BP, triggered the population decline suggested by the archaeological record. We employ a Bayesian approach that estimates the temporal relationship between climatic events and change-points in the rate of growth in human population as inferred from radiocarbon time frequency data. Our results do not support the climate-induced population decline hypothesis for three reasons. First, our Bayesian analyses suggest that the cooling event occurred after the start of the population decline inferred from the radiocarbon time-frequency record. Second, we did not find evidence showing a significant reduction of millet-associated dates occurring during the cooling climate. Third, we detected different magnitudes of decline in the radiocarbon time-frequency data in the inland and coastal regions, indicating that the even if cooling episodes were ultimately responsible of these population 'busts', their impact was most likely distinct between these regions. We discuss our results highlighting the long tradition of mobility-based subsistence strategy in coastal regions as a potential factor contributing to the regional differences we were able to detect.
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Affiliation(s)
- Habeom Kim
- Department of Anthropology, University of Oregon, 1321 Kincaid Street, Eugene, OR, 97403, USA
| | - Gyoung-Ah Lee
- Department of Anthropology, University of Oregon, 1321 Kincaid Street, Eugene, OR, 97403, USA
| | - Enrico R Crema
- Department of Archaeology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3ER, UK.
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9
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Heffern EFW, Huelskamp H, Bahar S, Inglis RF. Phase transitions in biology: from bird flocks to population dynamics. Proc Biol Sci 2021; 288:20211111. [PMID: 34666526 PMCID: PMC8527202 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2021.1111] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2021] [Accepted: 09/27/2021] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Phase transitions are an important and extensively studied concept in physics. The insights derived from understanding phase transitions in physics have recently and successfully been applied to a number of different phenomena in biological systems. Here, we provide a brief review of phase transitions and their role in explaining biological processes ranging from collective behaviour in animal flocks to neuronal firing. We also highlight a new and exciting area where phase transition theory is particularly applicable: population collapse and extinction. We discuss how phase transition theory can give insight into a range of extinction events such as population decline due to climate change or microbial responses to stressors such as antibiotic treatment.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Holly Huelskamp
- Department of Biology, University of Missouri at St Louis, St Louis, MO, USA
| | - Sonya Bahar
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Missouri at St Louis, St Louis, MO, USA
| | - R. Fredrik Inglis
- Department of Biology, University of Missouri at St Louis, St Louis, MO, USA
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10
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Long-term decrease in Asian monsoon rainfall and abrupt climate change events over the past 6,700 years. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2021; 118:2102007118. [PMID: 34282014 PMCID: PMC8325342 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2102007118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
The variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is important for the functioning of ecological and societal systems at regional to continental scales, but the long-term evolution and interannual variability of this system is not well understood. Here, we present a stable isotope–based reconstruction of ASM variability covering 4680 BCE to 2011 CE. Superimposed on a gradual drying trend, a rapid drop in mean annual precipitation (>40%) toward persistently drier conditions occurred in ∼1675 BCE. This megadrought caused regional forest deterioration and enhanced aeolian activity affecting Chinese ecosystems. We argue that this abrupt aridification starting ∼2000 BCE triggered waves of human migration and societal transformation in northern China, which contributed to the alteration of spatial pattern of ancient civilizations. Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability and its long-term ecological and societal impacts extending back to Neolithic times are poorly understood due to a lack of high-resolution climate proxy data. Here, we present a precisely dated and well-calibrated tree-ring stable isotope chronology from the Tibetan Plateau with 1- to 5-y resolution that reflects high- to low-frequency ASM variability from 4680 BCE to 2011 CE. Superimposed on a persistent drying trend since the mid-Holocene, a rapid decrease in moisture availability between ∼2000 and ∼1500 BCE caused a dry hydroclimatic regime from ∼1675 to ∼1185 BCE, with mean precipitation estimated at 42 ± 4% and 5 ± 2% lower than during the mid-Holocene and the instrumental period, respectively. This second-millennium–BCE megadrought marks the mid-to late Holocene transition, during which regional forests declined and enhanced aeolian activity affected northern Chinese ecosystems. We argue that this abrupt aridification starting ∼2000 BCE contributed to the shift of Neolithic cultures in northern China and likely triggered human migration and societal transformation.
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11
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Approximate Bayesian Computation of radiocarbon and paleoenvironmental record shows population resilience on Rapa Nui (Easter Island). Nat Commun 2021; 12:3939. [PMID: 34168160 PMCID: PMC8225912 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24252-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/12/2021] [Accepted: 06/02/2021] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Examining how past human populations responded to environmental and climatic changes is a central focus of the historical sciences. The use of summed probability distributions (SPD) of radiocarbon dates as a proxy for estimating relative population sizes provides a widely applicable method in this research area. Paleodemographic reconstructions and modeling with SPDs, however, are stymied by a lack of accepted methods for model fitting, tools for assessing the demographic impact of environmental or climatic variables, and a means for formal multi-model comparison. These deficiencies severely limit our ability to reliably resolve crucial questions of past human-environment interactions. We propose a solution using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to fit complex demographic models to observed SPDs. Using a case study from Rapa Nui (Easter Island), a location that has long been the focus of debate regarding the impact of environmental and climatic changes on its human population, we find that past populations were resilient to environmental and climatic challenges. Our findings support a growing body of evidence showing stable and sustainable communities on the island. The ABC framework offers a novel approach for exploring regions and time periods where questions of climate-induced demographic and cultural change remain unresolved. Summed probability distributions of radiocarbon dates can be used to estimate past demography, but methods to test for associations with environmental change are lacking. Here, DiNapoli et al. propose an approach using Approximate Bayesian Computation and illustrate it in a case study of Rapa Nui.
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12
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Crema ER, Shoda S. A Bayesian approach for fitting and comparing demographic growth models of radiocarbon dates: A case study on the Jomon-Yayoi transition in Kyushu (Japan). PLoS One 2021; 16:e0251695. [PMID: 34010349 PMCID: PMC8133439 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0251695] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/20/2021] [Accepted: 05/02/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Large sets of radiocarbon dates are increasingly used as proxies for inferring past population dynamics and the last few years, in particular, saw an increase in the development of new statistical techniques to overcome some of the key challenges imposed by this kind of data. These include: 1) null hypothesis significance testing approaches based on Monte-Carlo simulations or mark permutations; 2) non-parametric Bayesian modelling approaches, and 3) the use of more traditional techniques such as correlation, regression, and AIC-based model comparison directly on the summed probability distribution of radiocarbon dates (SPD). While the range of opportunities offered by these solutions is unquestionably appealing, they often do not consider the uncertainty and the biases arising from calibration effects or sampling error. Here we introduce a novel Bayesian approach and nimbleCarbon, an R package that offers model fitting and comparison for population growth models based on the temporal frequency data of radiocarbon dates. We evaluate the robustness of the proposed approach on a range of simulated scenarios and illustrate its application on a case study focused on the demographic impact of the introduction of wet-rice farming in prehistoric Japan during the 1st millennium BCE.
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Affiliation(s)
- Enrico R. Crema
- Department of Archaeology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Shinya Shoda
- BioArCh, University of York, Wentworth Way, Heslington, York, United Kingdom
- Nara National Research Institute for Cultural Properties, Nara, Japan
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13
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Lima M, Gayo EM, Latorre C, Santoro CM, Estay SA, Cañellas-Boltà N, Margalef O, Giralt S, Sáez A, Pla-Rabes S, Chr Stenseth N. Ecology of the collapse of Rapa Nui society. Proc Biol Sci 2020; 287:20200662. [PMID: 32576113 PMCID: PMC7329031 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2020.0662] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Collapses of food producer societies are recurrent events in prehistory and have triggered a growing concern for identifying the underlying causes of convergences/divergences across cultures around the world. One of the most studied and used as a paradigmatic case is the population collapse of the Rapa Nui society. Here, we test different hypotheses about it by developing explicit population dynamic models that integrate feedbacks between climatic, demographic and ecological factors that underpinned the socio-cultural trajectory of these people. We evaluate our model outputs against a reconstruction of past population size based on archaeological radiocarbon dates from the island. The resulting estimated demographic declines of the Rapa Nui people are linked to the long-term effects of climate change on the island's carrying capacity and, in turn, on the ‘per-capita food supply’.
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Affiliation(s)
- M Lima
- Departamento de Ecología, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.,Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | - E M Gayo
- Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.,Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile
| | - C Latorre
- Departamento de Ecología, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.,Centro UC del Desierto de Atacama, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.,Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity (IEB), Santiago, Chile
| | - C M Santoro
- Instituto de Alta Investigación, Universidad de Tarapacá, Arica, Chile
| | - S A Estay
- Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.,Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales y Evolutivas, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile
| | - N Cañellas-Boltà
- Institute of Earth Sciences Jaume Almera (ICTJA-CSIC), Lluís Solé Sabarís s/n, E-08028 Barcelona, Spain
| | - O Margalef
- Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB, 08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès, Catalonia, Spain.,Center for Ecological Research and Forestry Application (CREAF), E-08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès, Catalonia, Spain
| | - S Giralt
- Institute of Earth Sciences Jaume Almera (ICTJA-CSIC), Lluís Solé Sabarís s/n, E-08028 Barcelona, Spain
| | - A Sáez
- Department of Earth and Ocean Dynamics, Universitat de Barcelona, Marti i Franques s/n, E-08028 Barcelona, Spain
| | - S Pla-Rabes
- BABVE, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Cerdanyola del Vallès 08193, Spain.,Center for Ecological Research and Forestry Application (CREAF), E-08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès, Catalonia, Spain
| | - N Chr Stenseth
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, PO Box 1066, Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway
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