Fluctuating selection and global change: a synthesis and review on disentangling the roles of climate amplitude, predictability and novelty

Predictable patterns within the kelp forest can indirectly create temporary refugia from ocean acidification

Kelps are recognized for providing many ecosystem services in coastal areas and considered in ocean acidification (OA) mitigation. However, assessing OA modification requires an understanding of the multiple parameters involved in carbonate chemistry, especially in highly dynamic systems. We studied the effects of sugar kelp (Saccharina latissima) on an experimental farm at the north end of Hood Canal, Washington-a low retentive coastal system. In this field mesocosm study, two oyster species (Magallana gigas, Ostrea lurida) were exposed at locations in the mid, edge, and outside the kelp array. The Hood Head Sugar Kelp Farm Model outputs were used to identify dominating factors in spatial and temporal kelp dynamics, while wavelet spectrum analyses helped in understanding predictability patterns. This was linked to the measured biological responses (dissolution, growth, isotopes) of the exposed organisms. Positioned in an area of high (sub)-diel tidal fluxes with low retention potential, there were no measurable alterations of the seawater pH at the study site, demonstrating that the kelp array could not induce a direct mitigating effect against OA. However, beneficial responses in calcifiers were still observed, which are linked to two causes: increased pH predictability and improved provisioning through kelp-derived particulate organic resource utilization and as such, kelp improved habitat suitability and indirectly created refugia against OA. This study can serve as an analogue for many coastal bay habitats where prevailing physical forcing drives chemical changes. Future macrophyte studies that investigate OA mitigating effects should focus also on the importance of predictability patterns, which can additionally improve the conditions for marine calcifiers and ecosystem services vulnerable to or compromised by OA, including aquaculture sustainability.

Continuously fluctuating selection reveals extreme granularity and parallelism of adaptive tracking

Temporally fluctuating environmental conditions are a ubiquitous feature of natural habitats. Yet, how finely natural populations adaptively track fluctuating selection pressures via shifts in standing genetic variation is unknown. We generated high-frequency, genome-wide allele frequency data from a genetically diverse population of Drosophila melanogaster in extensively replicated field mesocosms from late June to mid-December, a period of ∼12 generations. Adaptation throughout the fundamental ecological phases of population expansion, peak density, and collapse was underpinned by extremely rapid, parallel changes in genomic variation across replicates. Yet, the dominant direction of selection fluctuated repeatedly, even within each of these ecological phases. Comparing patterns of allele frequency change to an independent dataset procured from the same experimental system demonstrated that the targets of selection are predictable across years. In concert, our results reveal fitness-relevance of standing variation that is likely to be masked by inference approaches based on static population sampling, or insufficiently resolved time-series data. We propose such fine-scaled temporally fluctuating selection may be an important force maintaining functional genetic variation in natural populations and an important stochastic force affecting levels of standing genetic variation genome-wide.

Breeding and Selecting Corals Resilient to Global Warming

Selective breeding of resilient organisms is an emerging topic in marine conservation. It can help us predict how species will adapt in the future and how we can help restore struggling populations effectively in the present. Scleractinian corals represent a potential tractable model system given their widescale phenotypic plasticity across fitness-related traits and a reproductive life history based on mass synchronized spawning. Here, I explore the justification for breeding in corals, identify underutilized pathways of acclimation, and highlight avenues for quantitative targeted breeding from the coral host and symbiont perspective. Specifically, the facilitation of enhanced heat tolerance by targeted breeding of plasticity mechanisms is underutilized. Evidence from theoretical genetics identifies potential pitfalls, including inattention to physical and genetic characteristics of the receiving environment. Three criteria for breeding emerge from this synthesis: selection from warm, variable reefs that have survived disturbance. This information will be essential to protect what we have and restore what we can.

Developmental temperature, more than long-term evolution, defines thermal tolerance in an estuarine copepod

Climate change is resulting in increasing ocean temperatures and salinity variability, particularly in estuarine environments. Tolerance of temperature and salinity change interact and thus may impact organismal resilience. Populations can respond to multiple stressors in the short-term (i.e., plasticity) or over longer timescales (i.e., adaptation). However, little is known about the short- or long-term effects of elevated temperature on the tolerance of acute temperature and salinity changes. Here, we characterized the response of the near-shore and estuarine copepod, Acartia tonsa, to temperature and salinity stress. Copepods originated from one of two sets of replicated >40 generation-old temperature-adapted lines: ambient (AM, 18°C) and ocean warming (OW, 22°C). Copepods from these lines were subjected to one and three generations at the reciprocal temperature. Copepods from all treatments were then assessed for differences in acute temperature and salinity tolerance. Development (one generation), three generations, and >40 generations of warming increased thermal tolerance compared to Ambient conditions, with development in OW resulting in equal thermal tolerance to three and >40 generations of OW. Strikingly, developmental OW and >40 generations of OW had no effect on low salinity tolerance relative to ambient. By contrast, when environmental salinity was reduced first, copepods had lower thermal tolerances. These results highlight the critical role for plasticity in the copepod climate response and suggest that salinity variability may reduce copepod tolerance to subsequent warming.

Does the definition of a novel environment affect the ability to detect cryptic genetic variation?

Anthropogenic change exposes populations to environments that have been rare or entirely absent from their evolutionary past. Such novel environments are hypothesized to release cryptic genetic variation, a hidden store of variance that can fuel evolution. However, support for this hypothesis is mixed. One possible reason is a lack of clarity in what is meant by 'novel environment', an umbrella term encompassing conditions with potentially contrasting effects on the exposure or concealment of cryptic variation. Here, we use a meta-analysis approach to investigate changes in the total genetic variance of multivariate traits in ancestral versus novel environments. To determine whether the definition of a novel environment could explain the mixed support for a release of cryptic genetic variation, we compared absolute novel environments, those not represented in a population's evolutionary past, to extreme novel environments, those involving frequency or magnitude changes to environments present in a population's ancestry. Despite sufficient statistical power, we detected no broad-scale pattern of increased genetic variance in novel environments, and finding the type of novel environment did not explain any significant variation in effect sizes. When effect sizes were partitioned by experimental design, we found increased genetic variation in studies based on broad-sense measures of variance, and decreased variation in narrow-sense studies, in support of previous research. Therefore, the source of genetic variance, not the definition of a novel environment, was key to understanding environment-dependant genetic variation, highlighting non-additive genetic variance as an important component of cryptic genetic variation and avenue for future research.

Whole-Genome Sequencing Reveals That Regulatory and Low Pleiotropy Variants Underlie Local Adaptation to Environmental Variability in Purple Sea Urchins

AbstractOrganisms experience environments that vary across both space and time. Such environmental heterogeneity shapes standing genetic variation and may influence species' capacity to adapt to rapid environmental change. However, we know little about the kind of genetic variation that is involved in local adaptation to environmental variability. To address this gap, we sequenced the whole genomes of 140 purple sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus) from seven populations that vary in their degree of pH variability. Despite no evidence of global population structure, we found a suite of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) tightly correlated with local pH variability (outlier SNPs), which were overrepresented in regions putatively involved in gene regulation (long noncoding RNA and enhancers), supporting the idea that variation in regulatory regions is important for local adaptation to variability. In addition, outliers in genes were found to be (i) enriched for biomineralization and ion homeostasis functions related to low pH response, (ii) less central to the protein-protein interaction network, and (iii) underrepresented among genes highly expressed during early development. Taken together, these results suggest that loci that underlie local adaptation to pH variability in purple sea urchins fall in regions with potentially low pleiotropic effects (based on analyses involving regulatory regions, network centrality, and expression time) involved in low pH response (based on functional enrichment).

Phenotypic Plasticity Drives Seasonal Thermal Tolerance in a Baltic Copepod

Seasonal changes in environmental conditions require substantial physiological responses for population persistence. Phenotypic plasticity is a common mechanism to tolerate these changes, but for organisms with short generation times rapid adaptation may also be a contributing factor. Here, we aimed to disentangle the impacts of adaptation from phenotypic plasticity on thermal tolerance of the calanoid copepod Acartia hudsonica collected throughout spring and summer of a single year. We used a common garden (11 °C and 18 °C) design to determine the relative impacts of plasticity versus adaptation. Acartia hudsonica were collected from five time points across the season and thermal tolerance was determined using critical thermal maximum (CTmax) followed by additional measurements after one generation of common garden. As sea surface temperature increased through the season, field collected individuals showed corresponding increases in thermal tolerance but decreases in body size. Despite different thermal tolerances of wild collections, common garden animals did not differ in CTmax within thermal treatments. Instead, there was evidence of phenotypic plasticity where higher temperatures were tolerated by the 18 °C versus the 11 °C treatment animals across all collections. Acclimation also had significant effects on body size, with higher temperatures resulting in smaller individuals, consistent with the temperature size rule. Therefore, the differences in thermal tolerance and body size observed in field collected A. hudsonica were likely driven by plasticity rather than adaptation. However, the observed decrease in body size suggests that nutrient availability and ecosystem functioning could be impacted if temperatures consistently increase with no change in copepod abundance. This is the first record of A. hudsonica in the Baltic Sea known to the authors.

Pacific oysters do not compensate growth retardation following extreme acidification events

Ocean acidification caused by anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions alters the growth of marine calcifiers. Although the immediate effects of acidification from global ocean models have been well studied on calcifiers, their recovery capacity over a wide range of pH has never been evaluated. This aspect is crucial because acidification events that arise in coastal areas can far exceed global ocean predictions. However, such acidification events could occur transiently, allowing for recovery periods during which the effects on growth would be compensated, maintained or amplified. Here we evaluated the recovery capacity of a model calcifier, the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas. We exposed juveniles to 15 pH conditions between 6.4 and 7.8 for 14 days. Oyster growth was retarded below pH 7.1 while shells were corroded at pH 6.5. We then placed the oysters under ambient pH > 7.8 for 42 days. Growth retardation persisted at pH levels below pH 7.1 even after the stress was removed. However, despite persistent retardation, growth has resumed rapidly suggesting that the oysters can recover from extreme acidification. Yet we found that the differences in individual weight between pH conditions below 7.1 increased over time, and thus the growth retardation cannot be compensated and may affect the fitness of the bivalves.

Climate adaptation and vulnerability of foundation species in a global change hotspot

Climate change is altering species ranges, and relative abundances within ranges, as populations become differentially adapted and vulnerable to the climates they face. Understanding present species ranges, whether species harbour and exchange adaptive variants, and how variants are distributed across landscapes undergoing rapid change, is therefore crucial to predicting responses to future climates and informing conservation strategies. Such insights are nonetheless lacking for most species of conservation concern. We assess genomic patterns of neutral variation, climate adaptation and climate vulnerability (offsets in predicted distributions of putatively adaptive variants across present and future landscapes) for sister foundation species, the marine tubeworms Galeolaria caespitosa and Galeolaria gemineoa, in a sentinel region for climate change impacts. We find that species are genetically isolated despite uncovering sympatry in their ranges, show parallel and nonparallel signals of thermal adaptation on spatial scales smaller than gene flow across their ranges, and are predicted to face different risks of maladaptation under future temperatures across their ranges. Our findings have implications for understanding local adaptation in the face of gene flow, and generate spatially explicit predictions for climatic disruption of adaptation and species distributions in coastal ecosystems that could guide experimental validation and conservation planning.

Evidence for adaptive morphological plasticity in the Caribbean coral, Acropora cervicornis

Genotype-by-environment interactions (GxE) indicate that variation in organismal traits cannot be explained by fixed effects of genetics or site-specific plastic responses alone. For tropical coral reefs experiencing dramatic environmental change, identifying the contributions of genotype, environment, and GxE on coral performance will be vital for both predicting persistence and developing restoration strategies. We quantified the impacts of G, E, and GxE on the morphology and survival of the endangered coral, Acropora cervicornis, through an in situ transplant experiment exposing common garden (nursery)-raised clones of ten genotypes to nine reef sites in the Florida Keys. By fate-tracking outplants over one year with colony-level 3D photogrammetry, we uncovered significant GxE on coral size, shape, and survivorship, indicating that no universal winner exists in terms of colony performance. Rather than differences in mean trait values, we found that individual-level morphological plasticity is adaptive in that the most plastic individuals also exhibited the fastest growth and highest survival. This indicates that adaptive morphological plasticity may continue to evolve, influencing the success of A. cervicornis and resulting reef communities in a changing climate. As focal reefs are active restoration sites, the knowledge that variation in phenotype is an important predictor of performance can be directly applied to restoration planning. Taken together, these results establish A. cervicornis as a system for studying the ecoevolutionary dynamics of phenotypic plasticity that also can inform genetic- and environment-based strategies for coral restoration.

Natural Analogues in pH Variability and Predictability across the Coastal Pacific Estuaries: Extrapolation of the Increased Oyster Dissolution under Increased pH Amplitude and Low Predictability Related to Ocean Acidification

Coastal-estuarine habitats are rapidly changing due to global climate change, with impacts influenced by the variability of carbonate chemistry conditions. However, our understanding of the responses of ecologically and economically important calcifiers to pH variability and temporal variation is limited, particularly with respect to shell-building processes. We investigated the mechanisms driving biomineralogical and physiological responses in juveniles of introduced (Pacific; Crassostrea gigas) and native (Olympia; Ostrea lurida) oysters under flow-through experimental conditions over a six-week period that simulate current and future conditions: static control and low pH (8.0 and 7.7); low pH with fluctuating (24-h) amplitude (7.7 ± 0.2 and 7.7 ± 0.5); and high-frequency (12-h) fluctuating (8.0 ± 0.2) treatment. The oysters showed physiological tolerance in vital processes, including calcification, respiration, clearance, and survival. However, shell dissolution significantly increased with larger amplitudes of pH variability compared to static pH conditions, attributable to the longer cumulative exposure to lower pH conditions, with the dissolution threshold of pH 7.7 with 0.2 amplitude. Moreover, the high-frequency treatment triggered significantly greater dissolution, likely because of the oyster's inability to respond to the unpredictable frequency of variations. The experimental findings were extrapolated to provide context for conditions existing in several Pacific coastal estuaries, with time series analyses demonstrating unique signatures of pH predictability and variability in these habitats, indicating potentially benefiting effects on fitness in these habitats. These implications are crucial for evaluating the suitability of coastal habitats for aquaculture, adaptation, and carbon dioxide removal strategies.

Loss of transcriptional plasticity but sustained adaptive capacity after adaptation to global change conditions in a marine copepod

Adaptive evolution and phenotypic plasticity will fuel resilience in the geologically unprecedented warming and acidification of the earth’s oceans, however, we have much to learn about the interactions and costs of these mechanisms of resilience. Here, using 20 generations of experimental evolution followed by three generations of reciprocal transplants, we investigated the relationship between adaptation and plasticity in the marine copepod, Acartia tonsa, in future global change conditions (high temperature and high CO₂). We found parallel adaptation to global change conditions in genes related to stress response, gene expression regulation, actin regulation, developmental processes, and energy production. However, reciprocal transplantation showed that adaptation resulted in a loss of transcriptional plasticity, reduced fecundity, and reduced population growth when global change-adapted animals were returned to ambient conditions or reared in low food conditions. However, after three successive transplant generations, global change-adapted animals were able to match the ambient-adaptive transcriptional profile. Concurrent changes in allele frequencies and erosion of nucleotide diversity suggest that this recovery occurred via adaptation back to ancestral conditions. These results demonstrate that while plasticity facilitated initial survival in global change conditions, it eroded after 20 generations as populations adapted, limiting resilience to new stressors and previously benign environments.

Rapid adaptation will facilitate species resilience under global climate change, but its effects on plasticity are less commonly investigated. This study shows that 20 generations of experimental adaptation in a marine copepod drives a rapid loss of plasticity that carries costs and might have impacts on future resilience to environmental change.

The genetic basis and adult reproductive consequences of developmental thermal plasticity

Increasing temperature and thermal variability generate profound selection on populations. Given the fast rate of environmental change, understanding the role of plasticity and genetic adaptation in response to increasing temperatures is critical. This may be especially true for thermal effects on reproductive traits in which thermal fertility limits at high temperatures may be lower than for survival traits. Consequences of changing environments during development on adult phenotypes may be particularly problematic for core traits such as reproduction that begin early in development. Here we examine the consequences of developmental thermal plasticity on subsequent adult reproductive traits and its genetic basis.

We used a panel of Drosophila melanogaster (the Drosophila Genetic Reference Panel; DGRP) in which male fertility performance was previously defined as either showing relatively little (status = ‘high’‐performing lines) or substantial (‘low’‐performing lines) decline when exposed to increasing developmental temperatures. We used a thermal reaction norm approach to quantify variation in the consequences of developmental thermal plasticity on multiple adult reproductive traits, including sex‐specific responses, and to identify candidate genes underlying such variation.

Developmental thermal stress impacted the means and thermal reaction norms of all reproductive traits except offspring sex ratio. Mating success declined as temperature increased with no difference between high and low lines, whereas increasing temperature resulted in declines for both male and female fertility and productivity but depended on line status. Fertility and offspring number were positively correlated within and between the sexes across lines, but males were more affected than females.

We identified 933 SNPs with significant evolved genetic differentiation between high and low lines. In all, 54 of these lie within genomic windows of overall high differentiation, have significant effects of genotype on the male thermal reaction norm for productivity and are associated with 16 genes enriched for phenotypes affecting reproduction, stress responses and autophagy in Drosophila and other organisms.

Our results illustrate considerable plasticity in male thermal limits on several reproductive traits following development at high temperature, and we identify differentiated loci with relevant phenotypic effects that may contribute to this population variation. While our work is on a single population, phenotypic results align with an increasing number of studies demonstrating the potential for stronger selection of thermal stress on reproductive traits, particularly in males. Such large fitness costs may have both short‐ and long‐term consequences for the evolution of populations in response to a warming world.

Environmental Heterogeneity Determines Diatom Colonisation on Artificial Substrata: Implications for Biomonitoring in Coastal Marine Waters

Benthic diatoms form an important component of the microphytobenthos and have long been utilised as suitable bioindicators in aquatic systems. However, knowledge on benthic diatom community succession on hard substrata (biofilm) remains understudied in austral marine coastal systems. In this study, we investigated benthic diatom colonisation on artificial substrates (Plexiglass) over a period of 5 weeks at two locations with different physical environments along the warm temperate coast of South Africa. Results revealed relatively similar physico-chemical conditions but highly contrasting diatom community development were observed between the two sites. While there were some shared taxa, site-specific dynamics resulted in significantly different diatom species diversity and richness, facilitated by common (e.g., Nitzschia ventricosa and Cocconeis scutellum) and a large percentage of rarely observed species such as Cocconeis testudo and Lyrella lyra. A total of 134 species belonging to 44 genera were observed during the study. The overall diatom composition differed spatio-temporally during the experimental period, with the fluctuating species occurrences and abundances highlighting the rapid microalgal species turnover within days, under natural conditions. Environmental variables were shown to have varying influences as drivers of the diatom community descriptors. Multivariate modelling confirmed that study site and the interaction between site and sampling occasion were important predictors of diatom abundances, and the overall observed community composition. The current results suggest that benthic diatoms on artificial substrata could be incorporated as suitable indicators of change along the coastline subject to further investigations, taking into account site-specific differences driven by habitat complexity and environmental variability. The experimental method proved to be efficient and can be implemented to study the response of benthic diatoms to localised nutrient enrichment around the coastline.

Individual-based eco-evolutionary models for understanding adaptation in changing seas

As climate change threatens species' persistence, predicting the potential for species to adapt to rapidly changing environments is imperative for the development of effective conservation strategies. Eco-evolutionary individual-based models (IBMs) can be useful tools for achieving this objective. We performed a literature review to identify studies that apply these tools in marine systems. Our survey suggested that this is an emerging area of research fuelled in part by developments in modelling frameworks that allow simulation of increasingly complex ecological, genetic and demographic processes. The studies we identified illustrate the promise of this approach and advance our understanding of the capacity for adaptation to outpace climate change. These studies also identify limitations of current models and opportunities for further development. We discuss three main topics that emerged across studies: (i) effects of genetic architecture and non-genetic responses on adaptive potential; (ii) capacity for gene flow to facilitate rapid adaptation; and (iii) impacts of multiple stressors on persistence. Finally, we demonstrate the approach using simple simulations and provide a framework for users to explore eco-evolutionary IBMs as tools for understanding adaptation in changing seas.