Ongoing over-exploitation and delayed responses to environmental change highlight the urgency for action to promote vertebrate recoveries by 2030

Adaptive responses to habitat change: Theory and tests with field experiments

Habitat loss and change are often implicated as the primary causes of species extinction. Although any population can be instantly imperiled by catastrophe, most habitat loss occurs gradually, thus enabling affected individuals an adaptive advantage to occupy the best of their dwindling opportunities. I demonstrate how to infer the advantage between two habitats for any density and frequency-dependent strategy of habitat selection. I explore the concept of an Adaptive Dispersal Strategy Landscape to reveal the Evolutionarily Stable Strategy separately for ideal-free and ideal preemptive habitat selectors. Both solutions reveal an initially counterintuitive expectation that individuals living at high density gain insufficient adaptive advantage to disperse from a deteriorating habitat. Adaptive dispersal is constrained at high density because habitats of better quality are fully occupied. I test the theory with measures of movement and foraging in crossover experiments on a seminatural population of meadow voles. The experiment allowed the voles to choose among patches and between enclosures in which I differentially manipulated food and shelter. Although photographs from an infrared camera documented voles venturing from one habitat to the other, none became resident. Voles preferentially foraged in the richer of the two enclosures, even when I reversed treatments, and they foraged more in patches protected by mulched straw. The adaptive advantage of dispersal using a surrogate fitness proxy based on the voles' giving-up densities mirrored that generated by theory. The convergence between theory and experiment yields much-needed insight into our ability to test, predict, and hopefully resolve, the ecological, evolutionary, and conservation consequences of habitat loss.

Modeling a hot, dry future: Substantial range reductions in suitable environment projected under climate change for a semiarid riparian predator guild

An understanding of species-environmental relationships is invaluable for effective conservation and management under anthropogenic climate change, especially for biodiversity hotspots such as riparian habitats. Species distribution models (SDMs) assess present species-environmental relationships which can project potential suitable environments through space and time. An understanding of environmental factors associated with distributions can guide conservation management strategies under a changing climate. We generated 260 ensemble SDMs for five species of Thamnophis gartersnakes (n = 347)-an important riparian predator guild-in a semiarid and biogeographically diverse region under impact from climate change (Arizona, United States). We modeled present species-environmental relationships and projected changes to suitable environment under 12 future climate scenarios per species, including the most and least optimistic greenhouse gas emission pathways, through 2100. We found that Thamnophis likely advanced northward since the turn of the 20th century and overwinter temperature and seasonal precipitation best explained present distributions. Future ranges of suitable environment for Thamnophis are projected to decrease by ca. -37.1% on average. We found that species already threatened with extinction or those with warm trailing-edge populations likely face the greatest loss of suitable environment, including near or complete loss of suitable environment. Future climate scenarios suggest an upward advance of suitable environment around montane areas for some low to mid-elevation species, which may create pressures to ascend. The most suitable environmental areas projected here can be used to identify potential safe zones to prioritize conservation refuges, including applicable critical habitat designations. By bounding the climate pathway extremes to, we reduce SDM uncertainties and provide valuable information to help conservation practitioners mitigate climate-induced threats to species. Implementing informed conservation actions is paramount for sustaining biodiversity in important aridland riparian systems as the climate warms and dries.

Effects of human depopulation and warming climate on bird populations in Japan

Quantifying biodiversity trends in economically developed countries, where depopulation, associated secondary succession, and climate warming are ongoing, provides insights for global biodiversity conservation in the 21st century. However, few studies have assessed the impacts of secondary succession and climate warming on species' population trends at a national scale. We estimated the population trends of common breeding bird species in Japan and examined the associations between the overall population trend and species traits with the nationwide bird count data on 47 species collected from 2009 to 2020. The overall population trend varied among species. Four species populations increased moderately, 18 were stable, and 11 declined moderately. Population trends for 13 species were uncertain. The difference in overall trends among the species was associated with their habitat group and temperature niche. Species with relatively low-temperature niches experienced more pronounced declines. Multispecies indicators showed a moderate increase in forest specialists and moderate declines in forest generalists (species that use both forests and open habitats) and open-habitat specialists. Forest generalists and open-habitat specialists also declined more rapidly at sites with more abandoned farmland. All species groups showed an accelerated decline or decelerated increase after 2015. These results suggest that common breeding birds in Japan are facing deteriorating trends as a result of nationwide changes in land use and climate. Future land-use planning and policies should consider the benefits of passive rewilding for forest specialists and active restoration measures (e.g., low-intensive forestry and agriculture) for nonforest specialists to effectively conserve biodiversity in the era of human depopulation and climate warming.

How many species will Earth lose to climate change?

Climate change may be an important threat to global biodiversity, potentially leading to the extinction of numerous species. But how many? There have been various attempts to answer this question, sometimes yielding strikingly different estimates. Here, we review these estimates, assess their disagreements and methodology, and explore how we might reach better estimates. Large-scale studies have estimated the extinction of ~1% of sampled species up to ~70%, even when using the same approach (species distribution models; SDMs). Nevertheless, worst-case estimates often converge near 20%-30% species loss, and many differences shrink when using similar assumptions. We perform a new review of recent SDM studies, which show ~17% loss of species to climate change under worst-case scenarios. However, this review shows that many SDM studies are biased by excluding the most vulnerable species (those known from few localities), which may lead to underestimating global species loss. Conversely, our analyses of recent climate change responses show that a fundamental assumption of SDM studies, that species' climatic niches do not change over time, may be frequently violated. For example, we find mean rates of positive thermal niche change across species of ~0.02°C/year. Yet, these rates may still be slower than projected climate change by ~3-4 fold. Finally, we explore how global extinction levels can be estimated by combining group-specific estimates of species loss with recent group-specific projections of global species richness (including cryptic insect species). These preliminary estimates tentatively forecast climate-related extinction of 14%-32% of macroscopic species in the next ~50 years, potentially including 3-6 million (or more) animal and plant species, even under intermediate climate change scenarios.