Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy

National Climate Change Risk Assessments to inform adaptation policy priorities and environmental sustainability outcomes: a knowledge systems perspective

National Climate Change Risk Assessments (CCRAs) have a key role in informing priorities for adaptation policy but face significant challenges due to multiple facets of risk and adaptation. Issues are especially pronounced for meeting goals of environmental sustainability due to the complex dynamics of socio-ecological systems. In practice, a CCRA can therefore differ from its original conceptual blueprint. These challenges are explored from a knowledge systems perspective, focusing on the role of stakeholders/policymakers, risk descriptors, methods, evidence sources, and scientists. A UK case study evaluates recent developments (CCRA3) including identification of policy urgency through adaptation shortfalls and its application to the natural environment. Important science-policy issues are also highlighted regarding inclusion of opportunities, systemic risks, residual risks, and risk tolerance. A general conclusion is that CCRAs inevitably leave open questions which lead back to their evolving role in the science-policy interface. A knowledge systems perspective identifies CCRAs as open, adaptive, reflexive processes that help redefine interpretations of risk and adaptation, rather than just providing a specific policy-relevant product. This perspective identifies scope for progressive refinement of CCRAs to enhance collective science-policy adaptive capacity whilst also engaging wider society. For environmental sustainability, this open process can be used to iteratively redefine robust future pathways and system reference conditions that also better reflect evolving societal perceptions and tolerance on sustainability risk in the face of climate change.

Impacts of Cross-Sectoral Climate Policy on Forest Carbon Sinks and Their Spatial Spillover: Evidence from Chinese Provincial Panel Data

This paper examines the impact of cross-sectoral climate policy on forest carbon sinks. Due to the complexity of the climate change issue and the professional division of labor among government departments, cross-sectoral cooperation in formulating climate policy is a desirable strategy. Forest carbon sinks play an important role in addressing climate change, but there are few studies focusing on forest carbon sinks and cross-sectoral climate policies. Thus, based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2007 to 2020, this paper establishes a benchmark regression model and a spatial panel model to analyze the impact of cross-sectoral climate policies on forest carbon sinks. We find that cross-sectoral climate policies positively impact forest carbon sinks. Under the influence of the "demonstration effect", we find that cross-sectoral climate policies have a positive impact not only on the forest carbon sinks in the region but also on those in the neighboring region. Further analysis shows that for provinces with less developed forestry industry and small forest areas, the positive effect of cross-sectoral climate policies on forest carbon sinks is more obvious. Overall, this paper can serve as an important reference for local governments to formulate climate policies and increase the capacity of forest carbon sinks.

Role of agriculture in climate change and adaptability: Use of innovative technologies in the Russian agricultural sector for climate conservation and protection

Global climate change poses two major challenges to the agricultural sector of the economy. First, it is necessary to assess the value and extent of its impact on atmospheric pollution by greenhouse gases, and, based on this, to determine priorities and the emission reduction strategy. The second concerns the adaptation of agriculture to threats and the use of causes from global climate change. Therefore, the purpose of the study is to disclose these two aspects. First, the national contribution of agriculture to greenhouse gas pollution was studied using the example of the Russian Federation according to the author’s methodology. Then the directions of the state adaptation policy towards the studied sector in the light of climate change are proposed. The results of the study can be useful in developing the adaptation strategy, increasing the flexibility of the agricultural sector of different countries to climate change.

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.