A new mechanistic model of weather-dependent Septoria tritici blotch disease risk

Climate change and plant pathogens

Global food security is threatened by climate change, both directly through responses of crop physiology and productivity, and indirectly through responses of plant-associated microbiota, including plant pathogens. While the interactions between host plants, pathogens and environmental drivers can be complex, recent research is beginning to indicate certain overall patterns in how plant diseases will affect crop production in future. Here, we review the results of three methodological approaches: large-scale observational studies, process-based disease models and experimental comparisons of pathosystems under current and future conditions. We find that observational studies have tended to identify rising temperatures as the primary driver of disease impact. Process-based models suggest that rising temperatures will lead to latitudinal shifts in disease pressure, but drying conditions could mitigate disease risk. Experimental studies suggest that rising atmospheric CO₂ will exacerbate disease impacts. Plant diseases may therefore counteract any crop yield increases due to climate change.

Threats to global food security from emerging fungal and oomycete crop pathogens

Emerging fungal and oomycete pathogens infect staple calorie crops and economically important commodity crops, thereby posing a significant risk to global food security. Our current agricultural systems - with emphasis on intensive monoculture practices - and globalized markets drive the emergence and spread of new pathogens and problematic traits, such as fungicide resistance. Climate change further promotes the emergence of pathogens on new crops and in new places. Here we review the factors affecting the introduction and spread of pathogens and current disease control strategies, illustrating these with the historic example of the Irish potato famine and contemporary examples of soybean rust, wheat blast and blotch, banana wilt and cassava root rot. Our Review looks to the future, summarizing what we see as the main challenges and knowledge gaps, and highlighting the direction that research must take to face the challenge of emerging crop pathogens.

Detection, forecasting and control of infectious disease epidemics: modelling outbreaks in humans, animals and plants

The 1918 influenza pandemic is one of the most devastating infectious disease epidemics on record, having caused approximately 50 million deaths worldwide. Control measures, including prohibiting non-essential gatherings as well as closing cinemas and music halls, were applied with varying success and limited knowledge of transmission dynamics. One hundred years later, following developments in the field of mathematical epidemiology, models are increasingly used to guide decision-making and devise appropriate interventions that mitigate the impacts of epidemics. Epidemiological models have been used as decision-making tools during outbreaks in human, animal and plant populations. However, as the subject has developed, human, animal and plant disease modelling have diverged. Approaches have been developed independently for pathogens of each host type, often despite similarities between the models used in these complementary fields. With the increased importance of a One Health approach that unifies human, animal and plant health, we argue that more inter-disciplinary collaboration would enhance each of the related disciplines. This pair of theme issues presents research articles written by human, animal and plant disease modellers. In this introductory article, we compare the questions pertinent to, and approaches used by, epidemiological modellers of human, animal and plant pathogens, and summarize the articles in these theme issues. We encourage future collaboration that transcends disciplinary boundaries and links the closely related areas of human, animal and plant disease epidemic modelling. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'.