On epigenetic stochasticity, entropy and cancer risk

Mapping the Temporal Landscape of Breast Cancer Using Epigenetic Entropy

Although generally unknown, the age of a newly diagnosed tumor encodes valuable etiologic and prognostic information. Here, we estimate the age of breast cancers, defined as the time from the start of growth to detection, using a measure of epigenetic entropy derived from genome-wide methylation arrays. Based on an ensemble of neutrally fluctuating CpG (fCpG) sites, this stochastic epigenetic clock differs from conventional clocks that measure age-related increases in methylation. We show that younger tumors exhibit hallmarks of aggressiveness, such as increased proliferation and genomic instability, whereas older tumors are characterized by elevated immune infiltration, indicative of enhanced immune surveillance. These findings suggest that the clock captures a tumor's effective growth rate resulting from the evolutionary-ecological competition between intrinsic growth potential and external systemic pressures. Because of the clock's ability to delineate old and stable from young and aggressive tumors, it has potential applications in risk stratification of early-stage breast cancers and guiding early detection efforts.