Estimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine allocation inequities: a modeling study

Behavioral Changes Associated With COVID-19 Vaccination: Cross-National Online Survey

BACKGROUND

During the initial phases of the vaccination campaign worldwide, nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remained pivotal in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. In this context, it is important to understand how the arrival of vaccines affected the adoption of NPIs. Indeed, some individuals might have seen the start of mass vaccination campaigns as the end of the emergency and, as a result, relaxed their COVID-safe behaviors, facilitating the spread of the virus in a delicate epidemic phase such as the initial rollout.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to collect information about the possible relaxation of protective behaviors following key events of the vaccination campaign in four countries and to analyze possible associations of these behavioral tendencies with the sociodemographic characteristics of participants.

METHODS

We developed an online survey named "COVID-19 Prevention and Behavior Survey" that was conducted between November 26 and December 22, 2021. Participants were recruited using targeted ads on Facebook in four different countries: Brazil, Italy, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. We measured the onset of relaxation of protective measures in response to key events of the vaccination campaign, namely personal vaccination and vaccination of the most vulnerable population. Through calculation of odds ratios (ORs) and regression analysis, we assessed the strength of association between compliance with NPIs and sociodemographic characteristics of participants.

RESULTS

We received 2263 questionnaires from the four countries. Participants reported the most significant changes in social activities such as going to a restaurant or the cinema and visiting relatives and friends. This is in good agreement with validated psychological models of health-related behavioral change such as the Health Belief Model, according to which activities with higher costs and perceived barriers (eg, social activities) are more prone to early relaxation. Multivariate analysis using a generalized linear model showed that the two main determinants of the drop of social NPIs were (1) having previously tested positive for COVID-19 (after the second vaccine dose: OR 2.46, 95% CI 1.73-3.49) and (2) living with people at risk (after the second vaccine dose: OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.22-2.03).

CONCLUSIONS

This work shows that particular caution has to be taken during vaccination campaigns. Indeed, people might relax their safe behaviors regardless of the dynamics of the epidemic. For this reason, it is crucial to maintain high compliance with NPIs to avoid hindering the beneficial effects of the vaccine.

Retrospective Analysis of Equity-Based Optimization for COVID-19 Vaccine Allocation

Marginalized racial and ethnic groups in the United States were disproportionally affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. To study these disparities, we construct an age-and-race-stratified mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission fitted to age-and-race-stratified data from 2020 in Oregon and analyze counter-factual vaccination strategies in early 2021. We consider two racial groups: non-Hispanic White persons and persons belonging to BIPOC groups (including non-Hispanic Black persons, non-Hispanic Asian persons, non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native persons, and Hispanic or Latino persons). We allocate a limited amount of vaccine to minimize overall disease burden (deaths or years of life lost), inequity in disease outcomes between racial groups (measured with five different metrics), or both. We find that, when allocating small amounts of vaccine (10% coverage), there is a trade-off between minimizing disease burden and minimizing inequity. Older age groups, who are at a greater risk of severe disease and death, are prioritized when minimizing measures of disease burden, and younger BIPOC groups, who face the most inequities, are prioritized when minimizing measures of inequity. The allocation strategies that minimize combinations of measures can produce middle-ground solutions that similarly improve both disease burden and inequity, but the trade-off can only be mitigated by increasing the vaccine supply. With enough resources to vaccinate 20% of the population the trade-off lessens, and with 30% coverage, we can optimize both equity and mortality. Our goal is to provide a race-conscious framework to quantify and minimize inequity that can be used for future pandemics and other public health interventions.

Sociodemographic Factors Associated with COVID-19 Vaccination among People in Guatemalan Municipalities

The Republic of Guatemala's reported COVID-19 vaccination coverage is among the lowest in the Americas and there are limited studies describing the disparities in vaccine uptake within the country. We performed a cross-sectional ecological analysis using multi-level modeling to identify sociodemographic characteristics that were associated with low COVID-19 vaccination coverage among Guatemalan municipalities as of 30 November 2022. Municipalities with a higher proportion of people experiencing poverty (β = -0.25, 95% CI: -0.43--0.07) had lower vaccination coverage. Municipalities with a higher proportion of people who had received at least a primary education (β = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.38-1.08), children (β = 1.07, 95% CI: 0.36-1.77), people aged 60 years and older (β = 2.94, 95% CI: 1.70-4.12), and testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection (β = 0.25, 95% CI: 0.14-0.36) had higher vaccination coverage. In the simplified multivariable model, these factors explained 59.4% of the variation in COVID-19 vaccination coverage. Poverty remained significantly associated with low COVID-19 vaccination coverage in two subanalyses restricting the data to the time period of the highest national COVID-19-related death rate and to COVID-19 vaccination coverage only among those aged 60 years or older. Poverty is a key factor associated with low COVID-19 vaccination and focusing public health interventions in municipalities most affected by poverty may help address COVID-19 vaccination and health disparities in Guatemala.