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Chiarelli A, Dobrovolny H. Viral Rebound After Antiviral Treatment: A Mathematical Modeling Study of the Role of Antiviral Mechanism of Action. Interdiscip Sci 2024:10.1007/s12539-024-00643-w. [PMID: 39033482 DOI: 10.1007/s12539-024-00643-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/12/2023] [Revised: 06/12/2024] [Accepted: 06/17/2024] [Indexed: 07/23/2024]
Abstract
The development of antiviral treatments for SARS-CoV-2 was an important turning point for the pandemic. Availability of safe and effective antivirals has allowed people to return back to normal life. While SARS-CoV-2 antivirals are highly effective at preventing severe disease, there have been concerning reports of viral rebound in some patients after cessation of antiviral treatment. In this study, we use a mathematical model of viral infection to study the potential of different antivirals to prevent viral rebound. We find that antivirals that block production are most likely to result in viral rebound if the treatment time course is not sufficiently long. Since these antivirals do not prevent infection of cells, cells continue to be infected during treatment. When treatment is stopped, the infected cells will begin producing virus at the usual rate. Antivirals that prevent infection of cells are less likely to result in viral rebound since cells are not being infected during treatment. This study highlights the role of antiviral mechanism of action in increasing or reducing the probability of viral rebound.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aubrey Chiarelli
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, Texas Christian University, Fort Worth, 76129, USA
| | - Hana Dobrovolny
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, Texas Christian University, Fort Worth, 76129, USA.
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Esmaeili S, Owens K, Wagoner J, Polyak SJ, White JM, Schiffer JT. A unifying model to explain frequent SARS-CoV-2 rebound after nirmatrelvir treatment and limited prophylactic efficacy. Nat Commun 2024; 15:5478. [PMID: 38942778 PMCID: PMC11213957 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-49458-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/06/2024] [Accepted: 06/04/2024] [Indexed: 06/30/2024] Open
Abstract
In a pivotal trial (EPIC-HR), a 5-day course of oral ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir, given early during symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (within three days of symptoms onset), decreased hospitalization and death by 89.1% and nasal viral load by 0.87 log relative to placebo in high-risk individuals. Yet, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir failed as post-exposure prophylaxis in a trial, and frequent viral rebound has been observed in subsequent cohorts. We develop a mathematical model capturing viral-immune dynamics and nirmatrelvir pharmacokinetics that recapitulates viral loads from this and another clinical trial (PLATCOV). Our results suggest that nirmatrelvir's in vivo potency is significantly lower than in vitro assays predict. According to our model, a maximally potent agent would reduce the viral load by approximately 3.5 logs relative to placebo at 5 days. The model identifies that earlier initiation and shorter treatment duration are key predictors of post-treatment rebound. Extension of treatment to 10 days for Omicron variant infection in vaccinated individuals, rather than increasing dose or dosing frequency, is predicted to lower the incidence of viral rebound significantly.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shadisadat Esmaeili
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
| | - Katherine Owens
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Jessica Wagoner
- Department of Laboratory Medicine & Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Stephen J Polyak
- Department of Laboratory Medicine & Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Judith M White
- Department of Cell Biology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
| | - Joshua T Schiffer
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
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Esmaeili S, Owens K, Wagoner J, Polyak SJ, White JM, Schiffer JT. A unifying model to explain high nirmatrelvir therapeutic efficacy against SARS-CoV-2, despite low post-exposure prophylaxis efficacy and frequent viral rebound. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2024:2023.08.23.23294505. [PMID: 38352583 PMCID: PMC10862980 DOI: 10.1101/2023.08.23.23294505] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/03/2024]
Abstract
In a pivotal trial (EPIC-HR), a 5-day course of oral ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir, given early during symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (within three days of symptoms onset), decreased hospitalization and death by 89.1% and nasal viral load by 0.87 log relative to placebo in high-risk individuals. Yet, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir failed as post-exposure prophylaxis in a trial, and frequent viral rebound has been observed in subsequent cohorts. We developed a mathematical model capturing viral-immune dynamics and nirmatrelvir pharmacokinetics that recapitulated viral loads from this and another clinical trial (PLATCOV). Our results suggest that nirmatrelvir's in vivo potency is significantly lower than in vitro assays predict. According to our model, a maximally potent agent would reduce the viral load by approximately 3.5 logs relative to placebo at 5 days. The model identifies that earlier initiation and shorter treatment duration are key predictors of post-treatment rebound. Extension of treatment to 10 days for Omicron variant infection in vaccinated individuals, rather than increasing dose or dosing frequency, is predicted to lower the incidence of viral rebound significantly.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shadisadat Esmaeili
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center; Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Katherine Owens
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center; Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Jessica Wagoner
- Department of Medicine, University of Washington; Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Judith M. White
- Department of Cell Biology, University of Virginia; Charlottesville, VA, USA
| | - Joshua T. Schiffer
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center; Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Medicine, University of Washington; Seattle, WA, USA
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Wong CKH, Lau JJ, Au ICH, Lau KTK, Hung IFN, Peiris M, Leung GM, Wu JT. Optimal timing of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir treatment after COVID-19 symptom onset or diagnosis: target trial emulation. Nat Commun 2023; 14:8377. [PMID: 38104114 PMCID: PMC10725470 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43706-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/16/2023] [Accepted: 11/17/2023] [Indexed: 12/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Reports of symptomatic rebound and/or test re-positivity among COVID-19 patients following the standard five-day treatment course of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir have sparked debates regarding optimal treatment timing and dosage. It is unclear whether initiating nirmatrelvir/ritonavir immediately after symptom onset would improve clinical outcomes and/or lead to post-treatment viral burden rebound due to inadequate viral clearance during treatment. Here we show that, by emulating a randomized target trial using real-world electronic medical record data from all 87,070 adult users of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir in Hong Kong between 16th March 2022 and 15th January 2023, early initiation of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir treatment (0 to 1 days after symptom onset or diagnosis) significantly reduced the incidence of 28-day all-cause mortality and hospitalization compared to delayed initiation (2 or more days) (absolute risk reduction [ARR]: 1.50% (95% confidence interval 1.17-1.80%); relative risk [RR]: 0.77 (0.73, 0.82)), but may be associated with a significant elevated risk of viral burden rebound (ARR: -1.08% (-1.55%, -0.46%)), although the latter estimates were associated with high uncertainty due to limited sample sizes. As such, patients should continue to initiate nirmatrelvir/ritonavir early after symptom onset or diagnosis to better protect against the more serious outcomes of hospitalization and mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carlos K H Wong
- Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health (D24H), Hong Kong SAR, China
- Department of Pharmacology and Pharmacy, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
- Department of Family Medicine and Primary Care, School of Clinical Medicine, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
- Vaccine Confidence Project, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Jonathan J Lau
- Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health (D24H), Hong Kong SAR, China
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
- School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Ivan C H Au
- Department of Pharmacology and Pharmacy, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
- School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Kristy T K Lau
- Department of Pharmacology and Pharmacy, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Ivan F N Hung
- Infectious Diseases Division, Department of Medicine, School of Clinical Medicine, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
- State Key Laboratory of Emerging Infectious Diseases, Carol Yu Centre for Infection, Department of Microbiology, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Malik Peiris
- School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
- Centre for Immunology and Infection, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Gabriel M Leung
- Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health (D24H), Hong Kong SAR, China
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
- School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Joseph T Wu
- Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health (D24H), Hong Kong SAR, China.
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.
- School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.
- The University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen, China.
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