Causal Inference Methods to Integrate Omics and Complex Traits

Prediction of causal genes at GWAS loci with pleiotropic gene regulatory effects using sets of correlated instrumental variables

Multivariate Mendelian randomization (MVMR) is a statistical technique that uses sets of genetic instruments to estimate the direct causal effects of multiple exposures on an outcome of interest. At genomic loci with pleiotropic gene regulatory effects, that is, loci where the same genetic variants are associated to multiple nearby genes, MVMR can potentially be used to predict candidate causal genes. However, consensus in the field dictates that the genetic instruments in MVMR must be independent (not in linkage disequilibrium, which is usually not possible when considering a group of candidate genes from the same locus. Here we used causal inference theory to show that MVMR with correlated instruments satisfies the instrumental set condition. This is a classical result by Brito and Pearl (2002) for structural equation models that guarantees the identifiability of individual causal effects in situations where multiple exposures collectively, but not individually, separate a set of instrumental variables from an outcome variable. Extensive simulations confirmed the validity and usefulness of these theoretical results. Importantly, the causal effect estimates remained unbiased and their variance small even when instruments are highly correlated, while bias introduced by horizontal pleiotropy or LD matrix sampling error was comparable to standard MR. We applied MVMR with correlated instrumental variable sets at genome-wide significant loci for coronary artery disease (CAD) risk using expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) data from seven vascular and metabolic tissues in the STARNET study. Our method predicts causal genes at twelve loci, each associated with multiple colocated genes in multiple tissues. We confirm causal roles for PHACTR 1 and ADAMTS 7 in arterial tissues, among others. However, the extensive degree of regulatory pleiotropy across tissues and the limited number of causal variants in each locus still require that MVMR is run on a tissue-by-tissue basis, and testing all gene-tissue pairs with cis-eQTL associations at a given locus in a single model to predict causal gene-tissue combinations remains infeasible. Our results show that within tissues, MVMR with dependent, as opposed to independent, sets of instrumental variables significantly expands the scope for predicting causal genes in disease risk loci with pleiotropic regulatory effects. However, considering risk loci with regulatory pleiotropy that also spans across tissues remains an unsolved problem.

Population Neuroscience: Principles and Advances

In population neuroscience, three disciplines come together to advance our knowledge of factors that shape the human brain: neuroscience, genetics, and epidemiology (Paus, Human Brain Mapping 31:891-903, 2010). Here, I will come back to some of the background material reviewed in more detail in our previous book (Paus, Population Neuroscience, 2013), followed by a brief overview of current advances and challenges faced by this integrative approach.

Genetically Predicted Apolipoprotein E Levels with the Risk of Panvascular Diseases: A Mendelian Randomization Study

The aim of this study was to comprehensively assess the causal relationship between the overall genetic effect of circulating ApoE levels and panvascular lesions using newer genome-wide association data and two-sample bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis. Two-way MR using single-nucleotide polymorphisms of circulating ApoE as instrumental variables was performed using the highest-priority Genome-wide association study (GWAS) data, with factor-adjusted and data-corrected statistics, to estimate causal associations between circulating ApoE levels and 10 pan-vascular diseases in > 500,000 UK Biobank participants, > 400,000 participants of Finnish ancestry, and numerous participants in a consortium of predominantly European ancestry. Meta-analysis was conducted to assess positive results. After correcting for statistical results, elevated circulating ApoE levels were shown to have a significant protective effect against Cerebral ischemia (CI) [IVW odds ratio (OR) 0.888, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.823-0.958, p = 2.3 × 10-3], Coronary heart disease [IVW OR 0.950,95% CI: 0.924-0.976, p = 2.0 × 10-4] had a significant protective effect and potentially suggestive protective causality against Angina pectoris [IVW odds ratio (OR) 0.961, 95%CI: 0.931-0.991, p = 1.1 × 10-2]. There was a potential causal effect for increased risk of Heart failure (HF) [IVW ratio (OR) 1.040, 95%CI: 1.006-1.060, p = 1.8 × 10-2]. (Bonferroni threshold p < 0.0026, PFDR < 0.05) Reverse MR analysis did not reveal significant evidence of a causal effect of PVD on changes in circulating ApoE levels. Meta-analysis increases reliability of results. Elevated circulating ApoE levels were particularly associated with an increased risk of heart failure. Elevated ApoE levels reduce the risk of cerebral ischemia, coronary heart disease, and angina pectoris, reflecting a protective effect. The possible pathophysiological role of circulating ApoE levels in the development of panvascular disease is emphasized.

High-resolution omics of vascular ageing and inflammatory pathways in neurodegeneration

High-resolution omics, particularly single-cell and spatial transcriptomic profiling, are rapidly enhancing our comprehension of the normal molecular diversity of gliovascular cells, as well as their age-related changes that contribute to neurodegeneration. With more omic profiling studies being conducted, it is becoming increasingly essential to synthesise valuable information from the rapidly accumulating findings. In this review, we present an overview of the molecular features of neurovascular and glial cells that have been recently discovered through omic profiling, with a focus on those that have potentially significant functional implications and/or show cross-species differences between human and mouse, and that are linked to vascular deficits and inflammatory pathways in ageing and neurodegenerative disorders. Additionally, we highlight the translational applications of omic profiling, and discuss omic-based strategies to accelerate biomarker discovery and facilitate disease course-modifying therapeutics development for neurodegenerative conditions.

The providential randomisation of genotypes

When building causal knowledge in behavioural genetics, the natural randomisation of genotypes at conception (approximately analogous to the artificial randomisation occurring in randomised controlled trials) facilitates the discovery of genetic causes. More importantly, the randomisation of genetic material within families also enables a better identification of (environmental) risk factors and aetiological pathways to diseases and behaviours.

mGWAS-Explorer 2.0: Causal Analysis and Interpretation of Metabolite-Phenotype Associations

Metabolomics-based genome-wide association studies (mGWAS) are key to understanding the genetic regulations of metabolites in complex phenotypes. We previously developed mGWAS-Explorer 1.0 to link single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), metabolites, genes and phenotypes for hypothesis generation. It has become clear that identifying potential causal relationships between metabolites and phenotypes, as well as providing deep functional insights, are crucial for further downstream applications. Here, we introduce mGWAS-Explorer 2.0 to support the causal analysis between >4000 metabolites and various phenotypes. The results can be interpreted within the context of semantic triples and molecular quantitative trait loci (QTL) data. The underlying R package is released for reproducible analysis. Using two case studies, we demonstrate that mGWAS-Explorer 2.0 is able to detect potential causal relationships between arachidonic acid and Crohn's disease, as well as between glycine and coronary heart disease.

From pharmacogenetics to pharmaco-omics: Milestones and future directions

The origins of pharmacogenetics date back to the 1950s, when it was established that inter-individual differences in drug response are partially determined by genetic factors. Since then, pharmacogenetics has grown into its own field, motivated by the translation of identified gene-drug interactions into therapeutic applications. Despite numerous challenges ahead, our understanding of the human pharmacogenetic landscape has greatly improved thanks to the integration of tools originating from disciplines as diverse as biochemistry, molecular biology, statistics, and computer sciences. In this review, we discuss past, present, and future developments of pharmacogenetics methodology, focusing on three milestones: how early research established the genetic basis of drug responses, how technological progress made it possible to assess the full extent of pharmacological variants, and how multi-dimensional omics datasets can improve the identification, functional validation, and mechanistic understanding of the interplay between genes and drugs. We outline novel strategies to repurpose and integrate molecular and clinical data originating from biobanks to gain insights analogous to those obtained from randomized controlled trials. Emphasizing the importance of increased diversity, we envision future directions for the field that should pave the way to the clinical implementation of pharmacogenetics.

Causal Inference with Genetic Data: Past, Present, and Future

The set of methods discussed in this collection has emerged from the convergence of two scientific fields-genetics and causal inference. In this introduction, we discuss relevant aspects of each field and show how their convergence arises from the natural experiments that genetics offer. We present introductory concepts useful to readers unfamiliar with genetically informed methods for causal inference. We conclude that existing applications and foreseeable developments should ensure that we rapidly reap the rewards of this relatively new field, not only in terms of our understanding of human disease and development, but also in terms of tangible translational applications.

Mendelian Randomization: Concepts and Scope

Mendelian randomization (MR) is a method of studying the causal effects of modifiable exposures (i.e., potential risk factors) on health, social, and economic outcomes using genetic variants associated with the specific exposures of interest. MR provides a more robust understanding of the influence of these exposures on outcomes because germline genetic variants are randomly inherited from parents to offspring and, as a result, should not be related to potential confounding factors that influence exposure-outcome associations. The genetic variant can therefore be used as a tool to link the proposed risk factor and outcome, and to estimate this effect with less confounding and bias than conventional epidemiological approaches. We describe the scope of MR, highlighting the range of applications being made possible as genetic data sets and resources become larger and more freely available. We outline the MR approach in detail, covering concepts, assumptions, and estimation methods. We cover some common misconceptions, provide strategies for overcoming violation of assumptions, and discuss future prospects for extending the clinical applicability, methodological innovations, robustness, and generalizability of MR findings.

Triangulating Evidence through the Inclusion of Genetically Informed Designs

Much research effort is invested in attempting to determine causal influences on disease onset and progression to inform prevention and treatment efforts. However, this is often dependent on observational data that are prone to well-known limitations, particularly residual confounding and reverse causality. Several statistical methods have been developed to support stronger causal inference. However, a complementary approach is to use design-based methods for causal inference, which acknowledge sources of bias and attempt to mitigate these through the design of the study rather than solely through statistical adjustment. Genetically informed methods provide a novel and potentially powerful extension to this approach, accounting by design for unobserved genetic and environmental confounding. No single approach will be absent from bias. Instead, we should seek and combine evidence from multiple methodologies that each bring different (and ideally uncorrelated) sources of bias. If the results of these different methodologies align-or triangulate-then we can be more confident in our causal inference. To be truly effective, this should ideally be done prospectively, with the sources of evidence specified in advance, to protect against one final source of bias-our own cognitions, expectations, and fondly held beliefs.

Computational Tools for Causal Inference in Genetics

The advent of large-scale, phenotypically rich, and readily accessible data provides an unprecedented opportunity for epidemiologists, statistical geneticists, bioinformaticians, and also behavioral and social scientists to investigate the causes and consequences of disease. Computational tools and resources are an integral component of such endeavors, which will become increasingly important as these data continue to grow exponentially. In this review, we have provided an overview of computational software and databases that have been developed to assist with analyses in causal inference. This includes online tools that can be used to help generate hypotheses, publicly accessible resources that store summary-level information for millions of genetic markers, and computational approaches that can be used to leverage this wealth of data to study causal relationships.