Quasispecies theory for multiple-peak fitness landscapes

Phase transitions in virology

Viruses have established relationships with almost every other living organism on Earth and at all levels of biological organization: from other viruses up to entire ecosystems. In most cases, they peacefully coexist with their hosts, but in most relevant cases, they parasitize them and induce diseases and pandemics, such as the AIDS and the most recent avian influenza and COVID-19 pandemic events, causing a huge impact on health, society, and economy. Viruses play an essential role in shaping the eco-evolutionary dynamics of their hosts, and have been also involved in some of the major evolutionary innovations either by working as vectors of genetic information or by being themselves coopted by the host into their genomes. Viruses can be studied at different levels of biological organization, from the molecular mechanisms of genome replication, gene expression and encapsidation, to global pandemics. All these levels are different and yet connected through the presence of threshold conditions allowing for the formation of a capsid, the loss of genetic information or epidemic spreading. These thresholds, as occurs with temperature separating phases in a liquid, define sharp qualitative types of behaviour. Thesephase transitionsare very well known in physics. They have been studied by means of simple, but powerful models able to capture their essential properties, allowing us to better understand them. Can the physics of phase transitions be an inspiration for our understanding of viral dynamics at different scales? Here we review well-known mathematical models of transition phenomena in virology. We suggest that the advantages of abstract, simplified pictures used in physics are also the key to properly understanding the origins and evolution of complexity in viruses. By means of several examples, we explore this multilevel landscape and how minimal models provide deep insights into a diverse array of problems. The relevance of these transitions in connecting dynamical patterns across scales and their evolutionary and clinical implications are outlined.

Hidden role of mutations in the evolutionary process

Mutations not only alter allele frequencies in a genetic pool but may also determine the fate of an evolutionary process. Here we study which allele fixes in a one-step, one-way model including the wild type and two adaptive mutations. We study the effect of the four basic evolutionary mechanisms-genetic drift, natural selection, mutation, and gene flow-on mutant fixation and its kinetics. Determining which allele is more likely to fix is not simply a question of comparing fitnesses and mutation rates. For instance, if the allele of interest is less fit than the other, then not only must it have a greater mutation rate, but also its mutation rate must exceed a specific threshold for it to prevail. We find exact expressions for such conditions. Our conclusions are based on the mathematical description of two extreme but important regimes, as well as on simulations.

Dynamics of Influenza A (H5N1) virus protein sequence diversity

Background

Influenza A (H5N1) virus is a global concern with potential as a pandemic threat. High sequence variability of influenza A viruses is a major challenge for effective vaccine design. A continuing goal towards this is a greater understanding of influenza A (H5N1) proteome sequence diversity in the context of the immune system (antigenic diversity), the dynamics of mutation, and effective strategies to overcome the diversity for vaccine design.

Methods

Herein, we report a comprehensive study of the dynamics of H5N1 mutations by analysis of the aligned overlapping nonamer positions (1–9, 2–10, etc.) of more than 13,000 protein sequences of avian and human influenza A (H5N1) viruses, reported over at least 50 years. Entropy calculations were performed on 9,408 overlapping nonamer position of the proteome to study the diversity in the context of immune system. The nonamers represent the predominant length of the binding cores for peptides recognized by the cellular immune system. To further dissect the sequence diversity, each overlapping nonamer position was quantitatively analyzed for four patterns of sequence diversity motifs: index, major, minor and unique.

Results

Almost all of the aligned overlapping nonamer positions of each viral proteome exhibited variants (major, minor, and unique) to the predominant index sequence. Each variant motif displayed a characteristic pattern of incidence change in relation to increased total variants. The major variant exhibited a restrictive pyramidal incidence pattern, with peak incidence at 50% total variants. Post this peak incidence, the minor variants became the predominant motif for majority of the positions. Unique variants, each sequence observed only once, were present at nearly all of the nonamer positions. The diversity motifs (index and variants) demonstrated complex inter-relationships, with motif switching being a common phenomenon. Additionally, 25 highly conserved sequences were identified to be shared across viruses of both hosts, with half conserved to several other influenza A subtypes.

Discussion

The presence of distinct sequences (nonatypes) at nearly all nonamer positions represents a large repertoire of reported viral variants in the proteome, which influence the variability dynamics of the viral population. This work elucidated and provided important insights on the components that make up the viral diversity, delineating inherent patterns in the organization of sequence changes that function in the viral fitness-selection. Additionally, it provides a catalogue of all the mutational changes involved in the dynamics of H5N1 viral diversity for both avian and human host populations. This work provides data relevant for the design of prophylactics and therapeutics that overcome the diversity of the virus, and can aid in the surveillance of existing and future strains of influenza viruses.

Solution of the Crow-Kimura model with a periodically changing (two-season) fitness function

Since the origin of life, both evolutionary dynamics and rhythms have played a key role in the functioning of living systems. The Crow-Kimura model of periodically changing fitness function has been solved exactly, using integral equation with time-ordered exponent. We also found a simple approximate solution for the two-season case. The evolutionary dynamics accompanied by the rhythms provide important insights into the properties of certain biological systems and processes.

Quasispecies model of evolution with migration

We consider the model of asexual evolution with migration, which was proposed by Waclaw et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 105, 268101 (2010)PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.105.268101]. This model setting is based on the standard mutation scheme from the quasispecies theory but with replicators moving from one habitat to another. The primary goal is to solve exactly the infinite population-genome length version of the model for the independent random distribution of fitnesses considered in the original paper. Moreover, we propose the analytical solution for the single peak and the symmetric fitness landscape. Our analytical solution is exact at the limit of large N. We found two phases-the correlated phase with the identical distributions of mutations in both habitats and the uncorrelated phase where the second habitat is choosing another peak of distribution in sequence space compared to the peak in the first habitat.

Mathematical Models of Quasi-Species Theory and Exact Results for the Dynamics

We formulate the Crow-Kimura, discrete-time Eigen model, and continuous-time Eigen model. These models are interrelated and we established an exact mapping between them. We consider the evolutionary dynamics for the single-peak fitness and symmetric smooth fitness. We applied the quantum mechanical methods to find the exact dynamics of the evolution model with a single-peak fitness. For the smooth symmetric fitness landscape, we map exactly the evolution equations into Hamilton-Jacobi equation (HJE). We apply the method to the Crow-Kimura (parallel) and Eigen models. We get simple formulas to calculate the dynamics of the maximum of distribution and the variance. We review the existing mathematical tools of quasi-species theory.

Quasispecies theory for evolution of modularity

Biological systems are modular, and this modularity evolves over time and in different environments. A number of observations have been made of increased modularity in biological systems under increased environmental pressure. We here develop a quasispecies theory for the dynamics of modularity in populations of these systems. We show how the steady-state fitness in a randomly changing environment can be computed. We derive a fluctuation dissipation relation for the rate of change of modularity and use it to derive a relationship between rate of environmental changes and rate of growth of modularity. We also find a principle of least action for the evolved modularity at steady state. Finally, we compare our predictions to simulations of protein evolution and find them to be consistent.

What Is a Quasispecies? Historical Origins and Current Scope

The quasispecies concept is introduced by means of a simple theoretical model that uses as little chemical kinetics and mathematics as possible but fully in the spirit of Albert Einstein who said: "Things should be made as simple as possible but not simpler." More elaborate treatments follow in the forthcoming chapters. It is shown that the most important results of the theory, in particular the existence of error thresholds, are not dependent on simplifying assumptions concerning the distribution of fitness values. Error thresholds are regularly found on landscapes with large and irregular scatter of fitness. After the introduction to theory, it will be shown how experimental data on the evolution of molecules or viruses may be fit to the theoretical model.

Getting to Know Viral Evolutionary Strategies: Towards the Next Generation of Quasispecies Models

Viral populations are formed by complex ensembles of genomes with broad phenotypic diversity. The adaptive strategies deployed by these ensembles are multiple and often cannot be predicted a priori. Our understanding of viral dynamics is mostly based on two kinds of empirical approaches: one directed towards characterizing molecular changes underlying fitness changes and another focused on population-level responses. Simultaneously, theoretical efforts are directed towards developing a formal picture of viral evolution by means of more realistic fitness landscapes and reliable population dynamics models. New technologies, chiefly the use of next-generation sequencing and related tools, are opening avenues connecting the molecular and the population levels. In the near future, we hope to be witnesses of an integration of these still decoupled approaches, leading into more accurate and realistic quasispecies models able to capture robust generalities and endowed with a satisfactory predictive power.

Punctuated equilibrium and shock waves in molecular models of biological evolution

We consider the dynamics in infinite population evolution models with a general symmetric fitness landscape. We find shock waves, i.e., discontinuous transitions in the mean fitness, in evolution dynamics even with smooth fitness landscapes, which means that the search for the optimal evolution trajectory is more complicated. These shock waves appear in the case of positive epistasis and can be used to represent punctuated equilibria in biological evolution during long geological time scales. We find exact analytical solutions for discontinuous dynamics at the large-genome-length limit and derive optimal mutation rates for a fixed fitness landscape to send the population from the initial configuration to some final configuration in the fastest way.

Catastrophic shifts and lethal thresholds in a propagating front model of unstable tumor progression

Unstable dynamics characterizes the evolution of most solid tumors. Because of an increased failure of maintaining genome integrity, a cumulative increase in the levels of gene mutation and loss is observed. Previous work suggests that instability thresholds to cancer progression exist, defining phase transition phenomena separating tumor-winning scenarios from tumor extinction or coexistence phases. Here we present an integral equation approach to the quasispecies dynamics of unstable cancer. The model exhibits two main phases, characterized by either the success or failure of cancer tissue. Moreover, the model predicts that tumor failure can be due to either a reduced selective advantage over healthy cells or excessive instability. We also derive an approximate, analytical solution that predicts the front speed of aggressive tumor populations on the instability space.

Evolution dynamics of a model for gene duplication under adaptive conflict

We present and solve the dynamics of a model for gene duplication showing escape from adaptive conflict. We use a Crow-Kimura quasispecies model of evolution where the fitness landscape is a function of Hamming distances from two reference sequences, which are assumed to optimize two different gene functions, to describe the dynamics of a mixed population of individuals with single and double copies of a pleiotropic gene. The evolution equations are solved through a spin coherent state path integral, and we find two phases: one is an escape from an adaptive conflict phase, where each copy of a duplicated gene evolves toward subfunctionalization, and the other is a duplication loss of function phase, where one copy maintains its pleiotropic form and the other copy undergoes neutral mutation. The phase is determined by a competition between the fitness benefits of subfunctionalization and the greater mutational load associated with maintaining two gene copies. In the escape phase, we find a dynamics of an initial population of single gene sequences only which escape adaptive conflict through gene duplication and find that there are two time regimes: until a time t single gene sequences dominate, and after t double gene sequences outgrow single gene sequences. The time t is identified as the time necessary for subfunctionalization to evolve and spread throughout the double gene sequences, and we show that there is an optimum mutation rate which minimizes this time scale.

Variability in mutational fitness effects prevents full lethal transitions in large quasispecies populations

The distribution of mutational fitness effects (DMFE) is crucial to the evolutionary fate of quasispecies. In this article we analyze the effect of the DMFE on the dynamics of a large quasispecies by means of a phenotypic version of the classic Eigen's model that incorporates beneficial, neutral, deleterious, and lethal mutations. By parameterizing the model with available experimental data on the DMFE of Vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) and Tobacco etch virus (TEV), we found that increasing mutation does not totally push the entire viral quasispecies towards deleterious or lethal regions of the phenotypic sequence space. The probability of finding regions in the parameter space of the general model that results in a quasispecies only composed by lethal phenotypes is extremely small at equilibrium and in transient times. The implications of our findings can be extended to other scenarios, such as lethal mutagenesis or genomically unstable cancer, where increased mutagenesis has been suggested as a potential therapy.

Stationary distribution of self-organized states and biological information generation

Self-organization, where spontaneous orderings occur under driven conditions, is one of the hallmarks of biological systems. We consider a statistical mechanical treatment of the biased distribution of such organized states, which become favored as a result of their catalytic activity under chemical driving forces. A generalization of the equilibrium canonical distribution describes the stationary state, which can be used to model shifts in conformational ensembles sampled by an enzyme in working conditions. The basic idea is applied to the process of biological information generation from random sequences of heteropolymers, where unfavorable Shannon entropy is overcome by the catalytic activities of selected genes. The ordering process is demonstrated with the genetic distance to a genotype with high catalytic activity as an order parameter. The resulting free energy can have multiple minima, corresponding to disordered and organized phases with first-order transitions between them.

Evolutionary advantage via common action of recombination and neutrality

We investigate evolution models with recombination and neutrality. We consider the Crow-Kimura (parallel) mutation-selection model with the neutral fitness landscape, in which there is a central peak with high fitness A, and some of 1-point mutants have the same high fitness A, while the fitness of other sequences is 0. We find that the effect of recombination and neutrality depends on the concrete version of both neutrality and recombination. We consider three versions of neutrality: (a) all the nearest neighbor sequences of the peak sequence have the same high fitness A; (b) all the l-point mutations in a piece of genome of length l≥1 are neutral; (c) the neutral sequences are randomly distributed among the nearest neighbors of the peak sequences. We also consider three versions of recombination: (I) the simple horizontal gene transfer (HGT) of one nucleotide; (II) the exchange of a piece of genome of length l, HGT-l; (III) two-point crossover recombination (2CR). For the case of (a), the 2CR gives a rather strong contribution to the mean fitness, much stronger than that of HGT for a large genome length L. For the random distribution of neutral sequences there is a critical degree of neutrality ν(c), and for μ<μ(c) and (μ(c)-μ) is not large, the 2CR suppresses the mean fitness while HGT increases it; for ν much larger than ν(c), the 2CR and HGT-l increase the mean fitness larger than that of the HGT. We also consider the recombination in the case of smooth fitness landscapes. The recombination gives some advantage in the evolutionary dynamics, where recombination distinguishes clearly the mean-field-like evolutionary factors from the fluctuation-like ones. By contrast, mutations affect the mean-field-like and fluctuation-like factors similarly. Consequently, recombination can accelerate the non-mean-field (fluctuation) type dynamics without considerably affecting the mean-field-like factors.

Evolution in a changing environment

We propose a simple model for genetic adaptation to a changing environment, describing a fitness landscape characterized by two maxima. One is associated with "specialist" individuals that are adapted to the environment; this maximum moves over time as the environment changes. The other maximum is static, and represents "generalist" individuals not affected by environmental changes. The rest of the landscape is occupied by "maladapted" individuals. Our analysis considers the evolution of these three subpopulations. Our main result is that, in presence of a sufficiently stable environmental feature, as in the case of an unchanging aspect of a physical habitat, specialists can dominate the population. By contrast, rapidly changing environmental features, such as language or cultural habits, are a moving target for the genes; here, generalists dominate, because the best evolutionary strategy is to adopt neutral alleles not specialized for any specific environment. The model we propose is based on simple assumptions about evolutionary dynamics and describes all possible scenarios in a non-trivial phase diagram. The approach provides a general framework to address such fundamental issues as the Baldwin effect, the biological basis for language, or the ecological consequences of a rapid climate change.

Biological evolution in a multidimensional fitness landscape

We considered a multiblock molecular model of biological evolution, in which fitness is a function of the mean types of alleles located at different parts (blocks) of the genome. We formulated an infinite population model with selection and mutation, and calculated the mean fitness. For the case of recombination, we formulated a model with a multidimensional fitness landscape (the dimension of the space is equal to the number of blocks) and derived a theorem about the dynamics of initially narrow distribution. We also considered the case of lethal mutations. We also formulated the finite population version of the model in the case of lethal mutations. Our models, derived for the virus evolution, are interesting also for the statistical mechanics and the Hamilton-Jacobi equation as well.

Viral quasispecies evolution

Evolution of RNA viruses occurs through disequilibria of collections of closely related mutant spectra or mutant clouds termed viral quasispecies. Here we review the origin of the quasispecies concept and some biological implications of quasispecies dynamics. Two main aspects are addressed: (i) mutant clouds as reservoirs of phenotypic variants for virus adaptability and (ii) the internal interactions that are established within mutant spectra that render a virus ensemble the unit of selection. The understanding of viruses as quasispecies has led to new antiviral designs, such as lethal mutagenesis, whose aim is to drive viruses toward low fitness values with limited chances of fitness recovery. The impact of quasispecies for three salient human pathogens, human immunodeficiency virus and the hepatitis B and C viruses, is reviewed, with emphasis on antiviral treatment strategies. Finally, extensions of quasispecies to nonviral systems are briefly mentioned to emphasize the broad applicability of quasispecies theory.

Quasispecies as a matter of fact: viruses and beyond

We review the origins of the quasispecies concept and its relevance for RNA virus evolution, viral pathogenesis and antiviral treatment strategies. We emphasize a critical point of quasispecies that refers to genome collectivities as the unit of selection, and establish parallels between RNA viruses and some cellular systems such as bacteria and tumor cells. We refer also to tantalizing new observations that suggest quasispecies behavior in prions, perhaps as a result of the same quantum-mechanical indeterminations that underlie protein conformation and error-prone replication in genetic systems. If substantiated, these observations with prions could lead to new research on the structure-function relationship of non-nucleic acid biological molecules.

Short-time evolution in the adaptive immune system

We exploit a simple model to numerically and analytically investigate the effect of enforcing a time constraint for achieving a system-wide goal during an evolutionary dynamics. This situation is relevant to finding antibody specificities in the adaptive immune response as well as to artificial situations in which an evolutionary dynamics is used to generate a desired capability in a limited number of generations. When the likelihood of finding the target phenotype is low, we find that the optimal mutation rate can exceed the error threshold, in contrast to conventional evolutionary dynamics. We also show how a logarithmic correction to the usual inverse scaling of population size with mutation rate arises. Implications for natural and artificial evolutionary situations are discussed.

Lethal mutants and truncated selection together solve a paradox of the origin of life

Background

Many attempts have been made to describe the origin of life, one of which is Eigen's cycle of autocatalytic reactions [Eigen M (1971) Naturwissenschaften 58, 465–523], in which primordial life molecules are replicated with limited accuracy through autocatalytic reactions. For successful evolution, the information carrier (either RNA or DNA or their precursor) must be transmitted to the next generation with a minimal number of misprints. In Eigen's theory, the maximum chain length that could be maintained is restricted to nucleotides, while for the most primitive genome the length is around . This is the famous error catastrophe paradox. How to solve this puzzle is an interesting and important problem in the theory of the origin of life.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We use methods of statistical physics to solve this paradox by carefully analyzing the implications of neutral and lethal mutants, and truncated selection (i.e., when fitness is zero after a certain Hamming distance from the master sequence) for the critical chain length. While neutral mutants play an important role in evolution, they do not provide a solution to the paradox. We have found that lethal mutants and truncated selection together can solve the error catastrophe paradox. There is a principal difference between prebiotic molecule self-replication and proto-cell self-replication stages in the origin of life.

Conclusions/Significance

We have applied methods of statistical physics to make an important breakthrough in the molecular theory of the origin of life. Our results will inspire further studies on the molecular theory of the origin of life and biological evolution.

Optimal mutation rates in dynamic environments: The Eigen model

We consider the Eigen quasispecies model with a dynamic environment. For an environment with sharp-peak fitness in which the most-fit sequence moves by k spin-flips each period T we find an asymptotic stationary state in which the quasispecies population changes regularly according to the regular environmental change. From this stationary state we estimate the maximum and the minimum mutation rates for a quasispecies to survive under the changing environment and calculate the optimum mutation rate that maximizes the population growth. Interestingly we find that the optimum mutation rate in the Eigen model is lower than that in the Crow-Kimura model, and at their optimum mutation rates the corresponding mean fitness in the eigenmodel is lower than that in the Crow-Kimura model, suggesting that the mutation process which occurs in parallel to the replication process as in the Crow-Kimura model gives an adaptive advantage under changing environment.

Selection via flatness as a dynamical effect in evolution models with finite population

We investigate the phenomenon of selection via flatness. In the static case, the finiteness of the population does not seriously influence the increase of mean fitness of population due to flatness around a peak. The effect is proportional to 1/square root(L), where L is the genome length. We investigated the two peak model (high peak and a flat peak). We find that the selection of flatness for long genome lengths occurs as a dynamic phenomenon in the case of evolution with small populations. We found that two factors are crucial to define the role of flatness: special initial distribution (the population is located at centers of peaks) allows flat peak to attract more population, and the large value of mutations per population per virus life cycle sometimes also increases the role of flatness. We suggested simple criteria to identify the phenomenon of dynamical arresting of population around flat peak by experiment. We infer that selection via robustness is possible in evolution as a nonequilibrium phenomenon.

Evolution models with lethal mutations on symmetric or random fitness landscapes

We calculate the mean fitness for evolution models, when the fitness is a function of the Hamming distance from a reference sequence, and there is a probability that this fitness is nullified (Eigen model case) or tends to the negative infinity (Crow-Kimura model case). We calculate the mean fitness of these models. The mean fitness is calculated also for the random fitnesses with logarithmic-normal distribution, reasonably describing sometimes the situation with RNA viruses.

Different fitnesses for in vivo and in vitro evolutions due to the finite generation-time effect

We consider the finite generation-time effect in virus evolution models, introducing differential equations with delay. The suggested approach more adequately describes the evolution in case of growing populations than the popular models of population genetics, especially for the viruses with large number of offspring during one life cycle. Now the mean fitness, as a coefficient for exponential population growth, could not be defined via instant characteristics of the model. For the constant population size the finite generation-time does not affect mean fitness in the steady state. The growing virus population is characterized by different fitness than the population with a constant size.

Recombination in one- and two-dimensional fitness landscapes

We consider many-site mutation-recombination models of molecular evolution, where fitness is a function of a Hamming distance from one (one-dimensional case) or two (two-dimensional case) sequences. For the one-dimensional case, we calculate the population distribution dynamics for a model with zero fitness and an arbitrary symmetric initial distribution and find an error threshold transition point in the single-peak fitness model for a given initial symmetric distribution. We calculate the recombination period in the case of a single-peak fitness function, when the original population is located at one sequence, at some Hamming distance from the peak configuration. Steady-state fitness is calculated with finite genome length corrections. We derive analytical equations for the two-dimensional mutation-recombination model.

Quasispecies theory for finite populations

We present stochastic, finite-population formulations of the Crow-Kimura and Eigen models of quasispecies theory, for fitness functions that depend in an arbitrary way on the number of mutations from the wild type. We include back mutations in our description. We show that the fluctuation of the population numbers about the average values is exceedingly large in these physical models of evolution. We further show that horizontal gene transfer reduces by orders of magnitude the fluctuations in the population numbers and reduces the accumulation of deleterious mutations in the finite population due to Muller's ratchet. Indeed, the population sizes needed to converge to the infinite population limit are often larger than those found in nature for smooth fitness functions in the absence of horizontal gene transfer. These analytical results are derived for the steady state by means of a field-theoretic representation. Numerical results are presented that indicate horizontal gene transfer speeds up the dynamics of evolution as well.

Theoretical aspects of immunity

The immune system recognizes a myriad of invading pathogens and their toxic products. It does so with a finite repertoire of antibodies and T cell receptors. We here describe theories that quantify the dynamics of the immune system. We describe how the immune system recognizes antigens by searching the large space of receptor molecules. We consider in some detail the theories that quantify the immune response to influenza and dengue fever. We review theoretical descriptions of the complementary evolution of pathogens that occurs in response to immune system pressure. Methods including bioinformatics, molecular simulation, random energy models, and quantum field theory contribute to a theoretical understanding of aspects of immunity.

Maximum, minimum, and optimal mutation rates in dynamic environments

We analyze the dynamics of the parallel mutation-selection quasispecies model with a changing environment. For an environment with the sharp-peak fitness function in which the most fit sequence changes by k spin flips every period T , we find analytical expressions for the minimum and maximum mutation rates for which a quasispecies can survive, valid in the limit of large sequence size. We find an asymptotic solution in which the quasispecies population changes periodically according to the periodic environmental change. In this state we compute the mutation rate that gives the optimal mean fitness over a period. We find that the optimal mutation rate per genome, k/T , is independent of genome size, a relationship which is observed across broad groups of real organisms.

Lethal mutagenesis in a structured environment

We analyze how lethal mutagenesis operates in a compartmentalized host. We assume that different compartments receive different amounts of mutagen and that virions can migrate among compartments. We address two main questions: (1) To what extent can refugia, i.e., compartments that receive little mutagen, prevent extinction? (2) Does migration among compartments limit the effectiveness of refugia? We find that if there is little migration, extinction has to be achieved separately in all compartments. In this case, the total dose of mutagen administered to the host needs to be so high that the mutagen is effective even in the refugia. By contrast, if migration is extensive, then lethal mutagenesis is effective as long as the average growth in all compartments is reduced to below replacement levels. The effectiveness of migration is governed by the ratio of virion replication and death rates, R(0). The smaller R(0), the less migration is necessary to neutralize refugia and the less mutagen is necessary to achieve extinction at high migration rates.

Phase diagram for the Eigen quasispecies theory with a truncated fitness landscape

Using methods of statistical physics, we present rigorous theoretical calculations of Eigen's quasispecies theory with the truncated fitness landscape which dramatically limits the available sequence space of information carriers. As the mutation rate is increased from small values to large values, one can observe three phases: the first (I) selective (also known as ferromagnetic) phase, the second (II) intermediate phase with some residual order, and the third (III) completely randomized (also known as paramagnetic) phase. We calculate the phase diagram for these phases and the concentration of information carriers in the master sequence (also known as peak configuration) x0 and other classes of information carriers. As the phase point moves across the boundary between phase I and phase II, x0 changes continuously; as the phase point moves across the boundary between phase II and phase III, x0 has a large change. Our results are applicable for the general case of a fitness landscape.

Quasispecies theory for horizontal gene transfer and recombination

We introduce a generalization of the parallel, or Crow-Kimura, and Eigen models of molecular evolution to represent the exchange of genetic information between individuals in a population. We study the effect of different schemes of genetic recombination on the steady-state mean fitness and distribution of individuals in the population, through an analytic field theoretic mapping. We investigate both horizontal gene transfer from a population and recombination between pairs of individuals. Somewhat surprisingly, these nonlinear generalizations of quasispecies theory to modern biology are analytically solvable. For two-parent recombination, we find two selected phases, one of which is spectrally rigid. We present exact analytical formulas for the equilibrium mean fitness of the population, in terms of a maximum principle, which are generally applicable to any permutation invariant replication rate function. For smooth fitness landscapes, we show that when positive epistatic interactions are present, recombination or horizontal gene transfer introduces a mild load against selection. Conversely, if the fitness landscape exhibits negative epistasis, horizontal gene transfer or recombination introduces an advantage by enhancing selection towards the fittest genotypes. These results prove that the mutational deterministic hypothesis holds for quasispecies models. For the discontinuous single sharp peak fitness landscape, we show that horizontal gene transfer has no effect on the fitness, while recombination decreases the fitness, for both the parallel and the Eigen models. We present numerical and analytical results as well as phase diagrams for the different cases.

Diploid biological evolution models with general smooth fitness landscapes and recombination

Using a Hamilton-Jacobi equation approach, we obtain analytic equations for steady-state population distributions and mean fitness functions for Crow-Kimura and Eigen-type diploid biological evolution models with general smooth hypergeometric fitness landscapes. Our numerical solutions of diploid biological evolution models confirm the analytic equations obtained. We also study the parallel diploid model for the simple case of recombination and calculate the variance of distribution, which is consistent with numerical results.

Emergence of order in quantum extensions of the classical quasispecies evolution

We study evolution equations which model selection and mutation within the framework of quantum mechanics. The main question is to what extent order is achieved for an ensemble of typical systems. As an indicator for mixing or purification, a quadratic entropy is used which assumes values between zero for pure states and (d-1)/d for fully mixed states. Here, d is the dimension. Whereas the classical counterpart, the quasispecies dynamics, has previously been found to be predominantly mixing, the quantum quasispecies (QS) evolution surprisingly is found to be strictly purifying for all dimensions. This is also typically true for an alternative formulation (AQS) of this quantum mechanical flow. We compare this also to analogous results for the Lindblad evolution. Although the latter may be viewed as a simple linear superposition of the purifying QS and AQS evolutions, it is found to be predominantly mixing. The reason for this behavior may be explained by the fact that the two subprocesses by themselves converge to different pure states, such that the combined process is mixing. These results also apply to high-dimensional systems.

Evolutionary dynamics of the most populated genotype on rugged fitness landscapes

We consider an asexual population evolving on rugged fitness landscapes which are defined on the multidimensional genotypic space and have many local optima. We track the most populated genotype as it changes when the population jumps from a fitness peak to a better one during the process of adaptation. This is done using the dynamics of the shell model which is a simplified version of the quasispecies model for infinite populations and standard Wright-Fisher dynamics for large finite populations. We show that the population fraction of a genotype obtained within the quasispecies model and the shell model match for fit genotypes and at short times, but the dynamics of the two models are identical for questions related to the most populated genotype. We calculate exactly several properties of the jumps in infinite populations, some of which were obtained numerically in previous works. We also present our preliminary simulation results for finite populations. In particular, we measure the jump distribution in time and find that it decays as t(-2) as in the quasispecies problem.

Self-organizing behavior in a lattice model for co-evolution of virus and immune systems

We propose a lattice model for the co-evolution of a virus population and an adaptive immune system. We show that, under some natural assumptions, both probability distribution of the virus population and the distribution of activity of the immune system tend during the evolution to a self-organized critical state.

Phase diagrams of quasispecies theory with recombination and horizontal gene transfer

We consider how transfer of genetic information between individuals influences the phase diagram and mean fitness of both the Eigen and the parallel, or Crow-Kimura, models of evolution. In the absence of genetic transfer, these physical models of evolution consider the replication and point mutation of the genomes of independent individuals in a large population. A phase transition occurs, such that below a critical mutation rate an identifiable quasispecies forms. We show how transfer of genetic information changes the phase diagram and mean fitness and introduces metastability in quasispecies theory, via an analytic field theoretic mapping.