Inferring local dynamics and connectivity of spatially extended systems with long-range links based on steady-state stabilization

A framework for reconstructing transmission networks in infectious diseases

In this paper, we propose a general framework for the reconstruction of the underlying cross-regional transmission network contributing to the spread of an infectious disease. We employ an autoregressive model that allows to decompose the mean number of infections into three components that describe: intra-locality infections, inter-locality infections, and infections from other sources such as travelers arriving to a country from abroad. This model is commonly used in the identification of spatiotemporal patterns in seasonal infectious diseases and thus in forecasting infection counts. However, our contribution lies in identifying the inter-locality term as a time-evolving network, and rather than using the model for forecasting, we focus on the network properties without any assumption on seasonality or recurrence of the disease. The topology of the network is then studied to get insight into the disease dynamics. Building on this, and particularly on the centrality of the nodes of the identified network, a strategy for intervention and disease control is devised.

Full reconstruction of simplicial complexes from binary contagion and Ising data

Previous efforts on data-based reconstruction focused on complex networks with pairwise or two-body interactions. There is a growing interest in networks with higher-order or many-body interactions, raising the need to reconstruct such networks based on observational data. We develop a general framework combining statistical inference and expectation maximization to fully reconstruct 2-simplicial complexes with two- and three-body interactions based on binary time-series data from two types of discrete-state dynamics. We further articulate a two-step scheme to improve the reconstruction accuracy while significantly reducing the computational load. Through synthetic and real-world 2-simplicial complexes, we validate the framework by showing that all the connections can be faithfully identified and the full topology of the 2-simplicial complexes can be inferred. The effects of noisy data or stochastic disturbance are studied, demonstrating the robustness of the proposed framework.

Data-driven recovery of topology is challenging for networks beyond pairwise interactions. The authors propose a framework to reconstruct complex networks with higher-order interactions from time series, focusing on networks with 2-simplexes where social contagion and Ising dynamics generate binary data.

Inferring Network Connectivity from Event Timing Patterns

Reconstructing network connectivity from the collective dynamics of a system typically requires access to its complete continuous-time evolution, although these are often experimentally inaccessible. Here we propose a theory for revealing physical connectivity of networked systems only from the event time series their intrinsic collective dynamics generate. Representing the patterns of event timings in an event space spanned by interevent and cross-event intervals, we reveal which other units directly influence the interevent times of any given unit. For illustration, we linearize an event-space mapping constructed from the spiking patterns in model neural circuits to reveal the presence or absence of synapses between any pair of neurons, as well as whether the coupling acts in an inhibiting or activating (excitatory) manner. The proposed model-independent reconstruction theory is scalable to larger networks and may thus play an important role in the reconstruction of networks from biology to social science and engineering.

Data-driven prediction and prevention of extreme events in a spatially extended excitable system

Extreme events occur in many spatially extended dynamical systems, often devastatingly affecting human life, which makes their reliable prediction and efficient prevention highly desirable. We study the prediction and prevention of extreme events in a spatially extended system, a system of coupled FitzHugh-Nagumo units, in which extreme events occur in a spatially and temporally irregular way. Mimicking typical constraints faced in field studies, we assume not to know the governing equations of motion and to be able to observe only a subset of all phase-space variables for a limited period of time. Based on reconstructing the local dynamics from data and despite being challenged by the rareness of events, we are able to predict extreme events remarkably well. With small, rare, and spatiotemporally localized perturbations which are guided by our predictions, we are able to completely suppress extreme events in this system.

The estimation of neurotransmitter release probability in feedforward neuronal network based on adaptive synchronization

In this paper, we proposed a new approach to estimate unknown parameters and topology of a neuronal network based on the adaptive synchronization control scheme. A virtual neuronal network is constructed as an observer to track the membrane potential of the corresponding neurons in the original network. When they achieve synchronization, the unknown parameters and topology of the original network are obtained. The method is applied to estimate the real-time status of the connection in the feedforward network and the neurotransmitter release probability of unreliable synapses is obtained by statistic computation. Numerical simulations are also performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive controller. The obtained results may have important implications in system identification in neural science.

Inferring network connectivity by delayed feedback control

We suggest a control based approach to topology estimation of networks with N elements. This method first drives the network to steady states by a delayed feedback control; then performs structural perturbations for shifting the steady states M times; and finally infers the connection topology from the steady states' shifts by matrix inverse algorithm (M = N) or l(1)-norm convex optimization strategy applicable to estimate the topology of sparse networks from M << N perturbations. We discuss as well some aspects important for applications, such as the topology reconstruction quality and error sources, advantages and disadvantages of the suggested method, and the influence of (control) perturbations, inhomegenity, sparsity, coupling functions, and measurement noise. Some examples of networks with Chua's oscillators are presented to illustrate the reliability of the suggested technique.

Estimating and adjusting abnormal networks with unknown parameters and topology

The changes of parameters and topology in a complex network often lead to unexpected accidents in complex systems, such as diseases in neural systems and unexpected current in circuit system, so the methods of adjusting the abnormal network back to its normal conditions are necessary to avoid these problems. However, it is not easy to detect the structures and information of each network, even if we can find a network which has the same function as the abnormal network, it is still hard to use it as a reference to adjust the abnormal network because a lot of network information is unknown. In this paper, we design a "bridging network" as an information bridge between a normal network and an abnormal network to estimate and control the abnormal network. Through the "bridging network" and some adaptive laws, the abnormal parameters and connections in abnormal network can be adjusted to the same conditions as those of the normal network which is chosen as a reference model. Finally, the "bridging network" and the abnormal network achieve synchronization with the normal network. Besides, the detailed inner information in normal network and abnormal network can be accurately estimated by this "bridging network." Finally, the nodes in the abnormal network will behave normally after the correction. In this paper, we use Hindmarsh-Rose model as an example to describe our method.