Analysis of synchronization in a slowly changing environment: how slow coupling becomes fast weak coupling

Integrating psychosocial variables and societal diversity in epidemic models for predicting COVID-19 transmission dynamics

During the current COVID-19 pandemic, governments must make decisions based on a variety of information including estimations of infection spread, health care capacity, economic and psychosocial considerations. The disparate validity of current short-term forecasts of these factors is a major challenge to governments. By causally linking an established epidemiological spread model with dynamically evolving psychosocial variables, using Bayesian inference we estimate the strength and direction of these interactions for German and Danish data of disease spread, human mobility, and psychosocial factors based on the serial cross-sectional COVID-19 Snapshot Monitoring (COSMO; N = 16,981). We demonstrate that the strength of cumulative influence of psychosocial variables on infection rates is of a similar magnitude as the influence of physical distancing. We further show that the efficacy of political interventions to contain the disease strongly depends on societal diversity, in particular group-specific sensitivity to affective risk perception. As a consequence, the model may assist in quantifying the effect and timing of interventions, forecasting future scenarios, and differentiating the impact on diverse groups as a function of their societal organization. Importantly, the careful handling of societal factors, including support to the more vulnerable groups, adds another direct instrument to the battery of political interventions fighting epidemic spread.

Multiple-Timescale Neural Networks: Generation of History-Dependent Sequences and Inference Through Autonomous Bifurcations

Sequential transitions between metastable states are ubiquitously observed in the neural system and underlying various cognitive functions such as perception and decision making. Although a number of studies with asymmetric Hebbian connectivity have investigated how such sequences are generated, the focused sequences are simple Markov ones. On the other hand, fine recurrent neural networks trained with supervised machine learning methods can generate complex non-Markov sequences, but these sequences are vulnerable against perturbations and such learning methods are biologically implausible. How stable and complex sequences are generated in the neural system still remains unclear. We have developed a neural network with fast and slow dynamics, which are inspired by the hierarchy of timescales on neural activities in the cortex. The slow dynamics store the history of inputs and outputs and affect the fast dynamics depending on the stored history. We show that the learning rule that requires only local information can form the network generating the complex and robust sequences in the fast dynamics. The slow dynamics work as bifurcation parameters for the fast one, wherein they stabilize the next pattern of the sequence before the current pattern is destabilized depending on the previous patterns. This co-existence period leads to the stable transition between the current and the next pattern in the non-Markov sequence. We further find that timescale balance is critical to the co-existence period. Our study provides a novel mechanism generating robust complex sequences with multiple timescales. Considering the multiple timescales are widely observed, the mechanism advances our understanding of temporal processing in the neural system.

A multiple timescales approach to bridging spiking- and population-level dynamics

A rigorous bridge between spiking-level and macroscopic quantities is an on-going and well-developed story for asynchronously firing neurons, but focus has shifted to include neural populations exhibiting varying synchronous dynamics. Recent literature has used the Ott-Antonsen ansatz (2008) to great effect, allowing a rigorous derivation of an order parameter for large oscillator populations. The ansatz has been successfully applied using several models including networks of Kuramoto oscillators, theta models, and integrate-and-fire neurons, along with many types of network topologies. In the present study, we take a converse approach: given the mean field dynamics of slow synapses, we predict the synchronization properties of finite neural populations. The slow synapse assumption is amenable to averaging theory and the method of multiple timescales. Our proposed theory applies to two heterogeneous populations of N excitatory n-dimensional and N inhibitory m-dimensional oscillators with homogeneous synaptic weights. We then demonstrate our theory using two examples. In the first example, we take a network of excitatory and inhibitory theta neurons and consider the case with and without heterogeneous inputs. In the second example, we use Traub models with calcium for the excitatory neurons and Wang-Buzsáki models for the inhibitory neurons. We accurately predict phase drift and phase locking in each example even when the slow synapses exhibit non-trivial mean-field dynamics.