A Longitudinal Support Vector Regression for Prediction of ALS Score

CNN-based severity prediction of neurodegenerative diseases using gait data

Neurodegenerative diseases occur because of degeneration in brain cells but can manifest as impairment of motor functions. One of the side effects of this impairment is an abnormality in walking. With the development of sensor technologies and artificial intelligence applications in recent years, the disease severity of patients can be estimated using their gait data. In this way, decision support applications for grading the severity of the disease that the patient suffers in the clinic can be developed. Thus, patients can have treatment methods more suitable for the severity of the disease. The presented research proposes a deep learning-based approach using gait data represented by a Quick Response code to develop an effective and reliable disease severity grading system for neurodegenerative diseases such as amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, Huntington's disease, and Parkinson's disease. The two-dimensional Quick Response data set was created by converting each one-dimensional gait data of the subjects with a novel representation approach to a Quick Response code. This data set was regressed with the convolutional neural network deep learning method, and a solution was sought for the problem of grading disease severity. Further, to demonstrate the success of the results obtained with the novel approach, native machine learning approaches such as Multilayer Perceptron, Random Forest, Extremely Randomized Trees, and K-Nearest Neighbours, and ensemble machine learning methods, such as voting and stacking, were applied on one-dimensional data. Finally, the results obtained on the prediction of disease severity by testing one-dimensional gait data with a convolutional neural network architecture that operates on one-dimensional data were included. The results showed that, in most cases, the two-dimensional convolutional neural network approach performed the best among all methods.

Classifying Patients with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis by Changes in FVC. A Group-based Trajectory Analysis

Rationale: A model for stratifying progression of respiratory muscle weakness in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) would identify disease mechanisms and phenotypes suitable for future investigations. This study sought to categorize progression of FVC after presentation to an outpatient ALS clinic.Objectives: To identify clinical phenotypes of ALS respiratory progression based on FVC trajectories over time.Methods: We derived a group-based trajectory model from a single-center cohort of 837 patients with ALS who presented between 2006 and 2015. We applied our model to the Pooled Resource Open-Access ALS Clinical Trials (PRO-ACT) database with 7,461 patients with ALS. Baseline characteristics at first visit were used as predictors of trajectory group membership. The primary outcome was trajectory of FVC over time in months.Measurements and Main Results: We found three trajectories of FVC over time, termed "stable low," "rapid progressor," and "slow progressor." Compared with the slow progressors, the rapid progressors had shorter diagnosis delay, more bulbar-onset disease, and a lower ALS Functional Rating Scale-Revised (ALSFRS-R) total score at baseline. The stable low group had a shorter diagnosis delay, lower body mass index, more bulbar-onset disease, lower ALSFRS-R total score, and were more likely to have an ALSFRS-R orthopnea score lower than 4 compared with the slow progressors. We found that projected group membership predicted respiratory insufficiency in the PRO-ACT cohort (concordance statistic = 0.78, 95% CI, 0.76-0.79).Conclusions: We derived a group-based trajectory model for FVC progression in ALS, which validated against the outcome of respiratory insufficiency in an external cohort. Future studies may focus on patients predicted to be rapid progressors.

Development of a prognostic model of respiratory insufficiency or death in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

A clinically useful model to prognose onset of respiratory insufficiency in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) would inform disease interventions, communication and clinical trial design. We aimed to derive and validate a clinical prognostic model for respiratory insufficiency within 6 months of presentation to an outpatient ALS clinic.We used multivariable logistic regression and internal cross-validation to derive a clinical prognostic model using a single-centre cohort of 765 ALS patients who presented between 2006 and 2015. External validation was performed using the multicentre Pooled Resource Open-Access ALS Clinical Trials (PRO-ACT) database with 7083 ALS patients. Predictors included baseline characteristics at first outpatient visit. The primary outcome was respiratory insufficiency within 6 months, defined by initiation of noninvasive ventilation, forced vital capacity (FVC) <50% predicted, tracheostomy, or death.Of 765 patients in our centre, 300 (39%) had respiratory insufficiency or death within 6 months. Six baseline characteristics (diagnosis age, delay between symptom onset and diagnosis, FVC, symptom onset site, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis functional rating scale-revised (ALSFRS-R) total score and ALSFRS-R dyspnoea score) were used to prognose the risk of the primary outcome. The derivation cohort c-statistic was 0.86 (95% CI 0.84-0.89) and internal cross-validation produced a c-statistic of 0.86 (95% CI 0.85-0.87). External validation of the model using the PRO-ACT cohort produced a c-statistic of 0.74 (95% CI 0.72-0.75).We derived and externally validated a clinical prognostic rule for respiratory insufficiency in ALS. Future studies should investigate interventions on equivalent high-risk patients.