Learning Optimal Individualized Treatment Rules from Electronic Health Record Data

Projection based inverse reinforcement learning for the analysis of dynamic treatment regimes

Dynamic Treatment Regimes (DTRs) are adaptive treatment strategies that allow clinicians to personalize dynamically the treatment for each patient based on their step-by-step response to their treatment. There are a series of predefined alternative treatments for each disease and any patient may associate with one of these treatments according to his/her demographics. DTRs for a certain disease are studied and evaluated by means of statistical approaches where patients are randomized at each step of the treatment and their responses are observed. Recently, the Reinforcement Learning (RL) paradigm has also been applied to determine DTRs. However, such approaches may be limited by the need to design a true reward function, which may be difficult to formalize when the expert knowledge is not well assessed, as when the DTR is in the design phase. To address this limitation, an extension of the RL paradigm, namely Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL), has been adopted to learn the reward function from data, such as those derived from DTR trials. In this paper, we define a Projection Based Inverse Reinforcement Learning (PB-IRL) approach to learn the true underlying reward function for given demonstrations (DTR trials). Such a reward function can be used both to evaluate the set of DTRs determined for a certain disease, as well as to enable an RL-based intelligent agent to self-learn the best way and then act as a decision support system for the clinician.

A novel kernel based approach to arbitrary length symbolic data with application to type 2 diabetes risk

Predictive modeling of clinical data is fraught with challenges arising from the manner in which events are recorded. Patients typically fall ill at irregular intervals and experience dissimilar intervention trajectories. This results in irregularly sampled and uneven length data which poses a problem for standard multivariate tools. The alternative of feature extraction into equal-length vectors via methods like Bag-of-Words (BoW) potentially discards useful information. We propose an approach based on a kernel framework in which data is maintained in its native form: discrete sequences of symbols. Kernel functions derived from the edit distance between pairs of sequences may then be utilized in conjunction with support vector machines to classify the data. Our method is evaluated in the context of the prediction task of determining patients likely to develop type 2 diabetes following an earlier episode of elevated blood pressure of 130/80 mmHg. Kernels combined via multi kernel learning achieved an F1-score of 0.96, outperforming classification with SVM 0.63, logistic regression 0.63, Long Short Term Memory 0.61 and Multi-Layer Perceptron 0.54 applied to a BoW representation of the data. We achieved an F1-score of 0.97 on MKL on external dataset. The proposed approach is consequently able to overcome limitations associated with feature-based classification in the context of clinical data.

Reinforcement learning for intelligent healthcare applications: A survey

Discovering new treatments and personalizing existing ones is one of the major goals of modern clinical research. In the last decade, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has enabled the realization of advanced intelligent systems able to learn about clinical treatments and discover new medical knowledge from the huge amount of data collected. Reinforcement Learning (RL), which is a branch of Machine Learning (ML), has received significant attention in the medical community since it has the potentiality to support the development of personalized treatments in accordance with the more general precision medicine vision. This report presents a review of the role of RL in healthcare by investigating past work, and highlighting any limitations and possible future contributions.

A semiparametric instrumental variable approach to optimal treatment regimes under endogeneity

There is a fast-growing literature on estimating optimal treatment regimes based on randomized trials or observational studies under a key identifying condition of no unmeasured confounding. Because confounding by unmeasured factors cannot generally be ruled out with certainty in observational studies or randomized trials subject to noncompliance, we propose a general instrumental variable approach to learning optimal treatment regimes under endogeneity. Specifically, we establish identification of both value function E [ Y D ( L ) ] for a given regime D and optimal regimes arg max D E [ Y D ( L ) ] with the aid of a binary instrumental variable, when no unmeasured confounding fails to hold. We also construct novel multiply robust classification-based estimators. Furthermore, we propose to identify and estimate optimal treatment regimes among those who would comply to the assigned treatment under a monotonicity assumption. In this latter case, we establish the somewhat surprising result that complier optimal regimes can be consistently estimated without directly collecting compliance information and therefore without the complier average treatment effect itself being identified. Our approach is illustrated via extensive simulation studies and a data application on the effect of child rearing on labor participation.

Learning Personalized Treatment Rules from Electronic Health Records Using Topic Modeling Feature Extraction

To address substantial heterogeneity in patient response to treatment of chronic disorders and achieve the promise of precision medicine, individualized treatment rules (ITRs) are estimated to tailor treatments according to patient-specific characteristics. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) provide gold standard data for learning ITRs not subject to confounding bias. However, RCTs are often conducted under stringent inclusion/exclusion criteria, and participants in RCTs may not reflect the general patient population. Thus, ITRs learned from RCTs lack generalizability to the broader real world patient population. Real world databases such as electronic health records (EHRs) provide new resources as complements to RCTs to facilitate evidence-based research for personalized medicine. However, to ensure the validity of ITRs learned from EHRs, a number of challenges including confounding bias and selection bias must be addressed. In this work, we propose a matching-based machine learning method to estimate optimal individualized treatment rules from EHRs using interpretable features extracted from EHR documentation of medications and ICD diagnoses codes. We use a latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) model to extract latent topics and weights as features for learning ITRs. Our method achieves confounding reduction in observational studies through matching treated and untreated individuals and improves treatment optimization by augmenting feature space with clinically meaningful LDA-based features. We apply the method to EHR data collected at New York Presbyterian Hospital clinical data warehouse in studying optimal second-line treatment for type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients. We use cross validation to show that ITRs outperforms uniform treatment strategies (i.e., assigning same treatment to all individuals), and including topic modeling features leads to more reduction of post-treatment complications.

Precision Medicine

Precision medicine seeks to maximize the quality of healthcare by individualizing the healthcare process to the uniquely evolving health status of each patient. This endeavor spans a broad range of scientific areas including drug discovery, genetics/genomics, health communication, and causal inference all in support of evidence-based, i.e., data-driven, decision making. Precision medicine is formalized as a treatment regime which comprises a sequence of decision rules, one per decision point, which map up-to-date patient information to a recommended action. The potential actions could be the selection of which drug to use, the selection of dose, timing of administration, specific diet or exercise recommendation, or other aspects of treatment or care. Statistics research in precision medicine is broadly focused on methodological development for estimation of and inference for treatment regimes which maximize some cumulative clinical outcome. In this review, we provide an overview of this vibrant area of research and present important and emerging challenges.

Deep Reinforcement Learning for Dynamic Treatment Regimes on Medical Registry Data

In this paper, we propose the first deep reinforcement learning framework to estimate the optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes from observational medical data. This framework is more flexible and adaptive for high dimensional action and state spaces than existing reinforcement learning methods to model real life complexity in heterogeneous disease progression and treatment choices, with the goal to provide doctor and patients the data-driven personalized decision recommendations. The proposed deep reinforcement learning framework contains a supervised learning step to predict the most possible expert actions; and a deep reinforcement learning step to estimate the long term value function of Dynamic Treatment Regimes. We motivated and implemented the proposed framework on a data set from the Center for International Bone Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR) registry database, focusing on the sequence of prevention and treatments for acute and chronic graft versus host disease. We showed results of the initial implementation that demonstrates promising accuracy in predicting human expert decisions and initial implementation for the reinforcement learning step.