Individualized Models for Glucose Prediction in Type 1 Diabetes: Comparing Black-Box Approaches to a Physiological White-Box One

Enhancing the Capabilities of Continuous Glucose Monitoring With a Predictive App

BACKGROUND

Despite abundant evidence demonstrating the benefits of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) in diabetes management, a significant proportion of people using this technology still struggle to achieve glycemic targets. To address this challenge, we propose the Accu-Chek® SmartGuide Predict app, an innovative CGM digital companion that incorporates a suite of advanced glucose predictive functionalities aiming to inform users earlier about acute glycemic situations.

METHODS

The app's functionalities, powered by three machine learning models, include a two-hour glucose forecast, a 30-minute low glucose detection, and a nighttime low glucose prediction for bedtime interventions. Evaluation of the models' performance included three data sets, comprising subjects with T1D on MDI (n = 21), subjects with type 2 diabetes (T2D) on MDI (n = 59), and subjects with T1D on insulin pump therapy (n = 226).

RESULTS

On an aggregated data set, the two-hour glucose prediction model, at a forecasting horizon of 30, 45, 60, and 120 minutes, achieved a percentage of data points in zones A and B of Consensus Error Grid of: 99.8%, 99.3%, 98.7%, and 96.3%, respectively. The 30-minute low glucose prediction model achieved an accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, mean lead time, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC) of: 98.9%, 95.2%, 98.9%, 16.2 minutes, and 0.958, respectively. The nighttime low glucose prediction model achieved an accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and ROC AUC of: 86.5%, 55.3%, 91.6%, and 0.859, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The consistency of the performance of the three predictive models when evaluated on different cohorts of subjects with T1D and T2D on different insulin therapies, including real-world data, offers reassurance for real-world efficacy.

Nocturnal Hypoglycemia in the Era of Continuous Glucose Monitoring

Nocturnal hypoglycemia is a common acute complication of people with diabetes on insulin therapy. In particular, the inability to control glucose levels during sleep, the impact of external factors such as exercise, or alcohol and the influence of hormones are the main causes. Nocturnal hypoglycemia has several negative somatic, psychological, and social effects for people with diabetes, which are summarized in this article. With the advent of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM), it has been shown that the number of nocturnal hypoglycemic events was significantly underestimated when traditional blood glucose monitoring was used. The CGM can reduce the number of nocturnal hypoglycemia episodes with the help of alarms, trend arrows, and evaluation routines. In combination with CGM with an insulin pump and an algorithm, automatic glucose adjustment (AID) systems have their particular strength in nocturnal glucose regulation and the prevention of nocturnal hypoglycemia. Nevertheless, the problem of nocturnal hypoglycemia has not yet been solved completely with the technologies currently available. The CGM systems that use predictive models to warn of hypoglycemia, improved AID systems that recognize hypoglycemia patterns even better, and the increasing integration of artificial intelligence methods are promising approaches in the future to significantly minimize the risk of a side effect of insulin therapy that is burdensome for people with diabetes.

AWD-stacking: An enhanced ensemble learning model for predicting glucose levels

Accurate prediction of blood glucose levels is essential for type 1 diabetes optimizing insulin therapy and minimizing complications in patients with type 1 diabetes. Using ensemble learning algorithms is a promising approach. In this regard, this study proposes an improved stacking ensemble learning algorithm for predicting blood glucose level, in which three improved long short-term memory network models are used as the base model, and an improved nearest neighbor propagation clustering algorithm is adaptively weighted to this ensemble model. The OhioT1DM dataset is used to train and evaluate the performance of the proposed model. This study evaluated the performance of the proposed model using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) as the evaluation metrics. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves an RMSE of 1.425 mg/dL, MAE of 0.721 mg/dL, and MCC of 0.982 mg/dL for a 30-minute prediction horizon(PH), RMSE of 3.212 mg/dL, MAE of 1.605 mg/dL, and MCC of 0.950 mg/dL for a 45-minute PH; and RMSE of 6.346 mg/dL, MAE of 3.232 mg/dL, and MCC of 0.930 mg/dL for a 60-minute PH. Compared with the best non-ensemble model StackLSTM, the RMSE and MAE were improved by up to 27.92% and 65.32%, respectively. Clarke Error Grid Analysis and critical difference diagram revealed that the model errors were within 10%. The model proposed in this study exhibits state-of-the-art predictive performance, making it suitable for clinical decision-making and of significant importance for the effective treatment of diabetes in patients.

A personalized multitasking framework for real-time prediction of blood glucose levels in type 1 diabetes patients

Real-time prediction of blood glucose levels (BGLs) in individuals with type 1 diabetes (T1D) presents considerable challenges. Accordingly, we present a personalized multitasking framework aimed to forecast blood glucose levels in patients. The patient data was initially categorized according to gender and age and subsequently utilized as input for a modified GRU network model, creating five prediction sub-models. The model hyperparameters were optimized and tuned after introducing the decay factor and incorporating the TCN network and attention mechanism into the GRU model. This step was undertaken to improve the capability of feature extraction. The Ohio T1DM clinical dataset was used to train and evaluate the performance of the proposed model. The metrics, including Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Clark Error Grid Analysis (EGA), were used to evaluate the performance. The results showed that the average RMSE and the MAE of the proposed model were 16.896 and 9.978 mg/dL, respectively, over the prediction horizon (PH) of 30 minutes. The average RMSE and the MAE were 28.881 and 19.347 mg/dL, respectively, over the PH of 60 min. The proposed model demonstrated excellent prediction accuracy. In addition, the EGA analysis showed that the proposed model accurately predicted 30-minute and 60-minute PH within zones A and B, demonstrating that the framework is clinically feasible. The proposed personalized multitask prediction model in this study offers robust assistance for clinical decision-making, playing a pivotal role in improving the outcomes of individuals with diabetes.