Adaptive Resilience of Complex Safety-Critical Sociotechnical Systems: Toward a Unified Conceptual Framework and Its Formalization

Resilience is commonly understood as the capacity for a system to maintain a desirable state while undergoing adversity or to return to a desirable state as quickly as possible after being impacted. In this paper, we focus on resilience for complex sociotechnical systems (STS), specifically those where safety is an important aspect. Two main desiderata for safety-critical STS to be resilient are adaptive capacity and adaptation. Formal studies integrating human cognition and social aspects are needed to quantify the capacity to adapt and the effects of adaptation. We propose a conceptual framework to elaborate on the concept of resilience of safety-critical STS, based on adaptive capacity and adaptation and how this can be formalized. A set of mechanisms is identified that is necessary for STS to have the capacity to adapt. Mechanisms belonging to adaptive capacity include situation awareness, sensemaking, monitoring, decision-making, coordination, and learning. It is posited that the two mechanisms required to perform adaptation are anticipation and responding. This framework attempts to coherently integrate the key components of the multifaceted concept of STS adaptive resilience. This can then be used to pursue the formal representation of adaptive resilience, its modeling, and its operationalization in real-world safety-critical STS.

Quantitative Characterization of Complex Systems—An Information Theoretic Approach

A significant increase in System-of-Systems (SoS) is currently observed in the social and technical domains. As a result of the increasing number of constituent system components, Systems of Systems are becoming larger and more complex. Recent research efforts have highlighted the importance of identifying innovative statistical and theoretical approaches for analyzing complex systems to better understand how they work. This paper portrays the use of an agnostic two-stage examination structure for complex systems aimed towards developing an information theory-based approach to analyze complex technical and socio-technical systems. Towards the goal of characterizing system complexity with information entropy, work was carried out in exploring the potential application of entropy to a simulated case study to illustrate its applicability and to establish the use of information theory within the broad horizon of complex systems. Although previous efforts have been made to use entropy for understanding complexity, this paper provides a basic foundation for identifying a framework to characterize complexity, in order to analyze and assess complex systems in different operational domains.

Robust adaptation of PKCζ-IRS1 insulin signaling pathways through integral feedback control

Insulin signaling pathways in muscle tissue play a major role in maintaining glucose homeostasis. Dysregulation in these pathways results in the onset of serious metabolic disorders like type 2 diabetes. Robustness is an essential characteristic of insulin signaling pathways that ensures reliable signal transduction in the presence of perturbations as a result of several feedback mechanisms. Integral control, according to control engineering, provides reliable setpoint tracking and disturbance rejection. The presence of negative feedback and integrating process is crucial for biological processes to achieve integral control. The existence of an integral controller leads to the rejection of perturbations which resulted in the robust regulation of biochemical entities within acceptable levels. In the presentin silicoresearch work, the presence of integral control in the protein kinase Cζ- insulin receptor substrate-1 (PKCζ-IRS1) pathway is identified, verified mathematically and model is simulated in Cell Designer. The data is exported to Minitab software and robustness analysis is carried out statistically using the Mann-Whitney test. The p-value of the results obtained with given parameters perturbed by ±1% is greater than the significance level of 0.05 (0.2132 for 1% error in k7(rate constant of IRS1 phosphorylation), 0.2096 for -1% error in k7, 0.9037 for both ±1% error in insulin and 0.9037 for ±1% error in k1(association rate constant of the first molecule of insulin to bind the insulin receptor), indicated that our hypothesis is proved The results satisfactorily indicate that even when perturbations are present, glucose homeostasis in muscle tissue is robust due to the presence of integral regulation in the PKCζ-IRS1 insulin signaling pathways. In this paper, we have analysed the findings from the framework of robust control theory, which has allowed us to examine that how PKCζ-IRS1 insulin signaling pathways produces desired output in presence of perturbations.

A Participatory Approach for Balancing Accuracy and Complexity in Modeling Resilience and Robustness

Robustness and resilience are widely used in the biological sciences and related disciplines to describe how systems respond to change. Robustness is the ability to tolerate change without adapting or moving to another state. Resilience refers to the ability for a system to sustain a perturbation and maintain critical functions. Robustness and resilience transcend levels of biological organization, though they do not scale directly across levels. We live in an era of novel stressors and unprecedented change, including climate change, emerging environmental contaminants, and changes to earth's biogeochemical and hydrological cycles. We envision a common framework for developing models to predict the robustness and resilience of biological functions associated with complex systems that can transcend disciplinary boundaries. Conceptual and quantitative models of robustness and resilience must consider cross-scale interactions of potentially infinite complexity, but it is impossible to capture everything within a single model. Here, we discuss the need to balance accuracy and complexity when designing models, data collection, and downstream analyses to study robustness and resilience. We also consider the difficulties in defining the spatiotemporal domain when studying robustness and resilience as an emergent property of a complex system. We suggest a framework for implementing transdisciplinary research on robustness and resilience of biological systems that draws on participatory stakeholder engagement methods from the fields of conservation and natural resources management. Further, we suggest that a common, simplified model development framework for describing complex biological systems will provide new, broadly relevant educational tools. Efficient interdisciplinary collaboration to accurately develop a model of robustness and resilience would enable rapid, context-specific assessment of complex biological systems with benefits for a broad range of societally relevant problems.

Diversity-enabled sweet spots in layered architectures and speed-accuracy trade-offs in sensorimotor control

Nervous systems sense, communicate, compute, and actuate movement using distributed components with severe trade-offs in speed, accuracy, sparsity, noise, and saturation. Nevertheless, brains achieve remarkably fast, accurate, and robust control performance due to a highly effective layered control architecture. Here, we introduce a driving task to study how a mountain biker mitigates the immediate disturbance of trail bumps and responds to changes in trail direction. We manipulated the time delays and accuracy of the control input from the wheel as a surrogate for manipulating the characteristics of neurons in the control loop. The observed speed-accuracy trade-offs motivated a theoretical framework consisting of two layers of control loops-a fast, but inaccurate, reflexive layer that corrects for bumps and a slow, but accurate, planning layer that computes the trajectory to follow-each with components having diverse speeds and accuracies within each physical level, such as nerve bundles containing axons with a wide range of sizes. Our model explains why the errors from two control loops are additive and shows how the errors in each control loop can be decomposed into the errors caused by the limited speeds and accuracies of the components. These results demonstrate that an appropriate diversity in the properties of neurons across layers helps to create "diversity-enabled sweet spots," so that both fast and accurate control is achieved using slow or inaccurate components.

Supply chain resilience: an adaptive cycle approach

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to develop a conceptual framework for extending an understanding of resilience in complex adaptive system (CAS) such as supply chains using the adaptive cycle framework. The adaptive cycle framework may help explain change and the long term dynamics and resilience in supply chain networks. Adaptive cycles assume that dynamic systems such as supply chain networks go through stages of growth, development, collapse and reorientation. Adaptive cycles suggest that the resilience of a complex adaptive system such as supply chains are not fixed but expand and contract over time and resilience requires such systems to navigate each of the cycles’ four stages successfully.

Design/methodology/approach

This research uses the adaptive cycle framework to explain supply chain resilience (SCRES). It explores the phases of the adaptive cycle, its pathologies and key properties and links these to competences and behaviors that are important for system and SCRES. The study develops a conceptual framework linking adaptive cycles to SCRES. The goal is to extend dynamic theories of SCRES by borrowing from the adaptive cycle framework. We review the literature on the adaptive cycle framework, its properties and link these to SCRES.

Findings

The key insight is that the adaptive cycle concept can broaden our understanding of SCRES beyond focal scales, including cross-scale resilience. As a framework, the adaptive cycle can explain the mechanisms that support or prevent resilience in supply chains. Adaptive cycles may also give us new insights into the sort of competences required to avoid stagnation, promote system renewal as resilience expands and contracts over time.

Research limitations/implications

The adaptive cycle may move our discussion of resilience beyond engineering and ecological resilience to include evolutionary resilience. While the first two presently dominates our theorizing on SCRES, evolutionary resilience may be more insightful than both are. Adaptive cycles capture the idea of change, adaptation and transformation and allow us to explore cross-scale resilience.

Practical implications

Knowing how to prepare for and overcoming key pathologies associated with each stage of the adaptive cycle can broaden our repertoire of strategies for managing SCRES across time. Human agency is important for preventing systems from crossing critical thresholds into imminent collapse. More importantly, disruptions may present an opportunity for innovation and renewal for building more resilience supply chains.

Originality/value

This research is one of the few studies that have applied the adaptive cycle concept to SCRES and extends our understanding of the dynamic structure of SCRES

Lessons from "a first-principles approach to understanding the internet's router-level topology"

Our main purpose for this editorial is to reiterate the main message that we tried to convey in our SIGCOMM'04 paper but that got largely lost in all the hype surrounding the use of scale-free network models throughout the sciences in the last two decades. That message was that because of (1) the Internet's highly-engineered architecture, (2) a thorough understanding of its component technologies, and (3) the availability of extensive (but typically noisy) measurements, this complex man-made system affords unique opportunities to unambiguously resolve most claims about its properties, structure, and functionality. In the process, we point out the fallacy of popular approaches that consider complex systems such as the Internet from the perspective of disorganized complexity and argue for renewed efforts and increased focus on advancing an "architecture first" view with its emphasis on studying the organized complexity of systems such as the Internet.

Automation to optimise physician treatment of individual patients: examples in psychiatry

There is widespread agreement by health-care providers, medical associations, industry, and governments that automation using digital technology could improve the delivery and quality of care in psychiatry, and reduce costs. Many benefits from technology have already been realised, along with the identification of many challenges. In this Review, we discuss some of the challenges to developing effective automation for psychiatry to optimise physician treatment of individual patients. Using the perspective of automation experts in other industries, three examples of automation in the delivery of routine care are reviewed: (1) effects of electronic medical records on the patient interview; (2) effects of complex systems integration on e-prescribing; and (3) use of clinical decision support to assist with clinical decision making. An increased understanding of the experience of automation from other sectors might allow for more effective deployment of technology in psychiatry.

Living on the edge: substrate competition explains loss of robustness in mitochondrial fatty-acid oxidation disorders

Background

Defects in genes involved in mitochondrial fatty-acid oxidation (mFAO) reduce the ability of patients to cope with metabolic challenges. mFAO enzymes accept multiple substrates of different chain length, leading to molecular competition among the substrates. Here, we combined computational modeling with quantitative mouse and patient data to investigate whether substrate competition affects pathway robustness in mFAO disorders.

Results

First, we used comprehensive biochemical analyses of wild-type mice and mice deficient for medium-chain acyl-CoA dehydrogenase (MCAD) to parameterize a detailed computational model of mFAO. Model simulations predicted that MCAD deficiency would have no effect on the pathway flux at low concentrations of the mFAO substrate palmitoyl-CoA. However, high concentrations of palmitoyl-CoA would induce a decline in flux and an accumulation of intermediate metabolites. We proved computationally that the predicted overload behavior was due to substrate competition in the pathway. Second, to study the clinical relevance of this mechanism, we used patients’ metabolite profiles and generated a humanized version of the computational model. While molecular competition did not affect the plasma metabolite profiles during MCAD deficiency, it was a key factor in explaining the characteristic acylcarnitine profiles of multiple acyl-CoA dehydrogenase deficient patients. The patient-specific computational models allowed us to predict the severity of the disease phenotype, providing a proof of principle for the systems medicine approach.

Conclusion

We conclude that substrate competition is at the basis of the physiology seen in patients with mFAO disorders, a finding that may explain why these patients run a risk of a life-threatening metabolic catastrophe.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12915-016-0327-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

On the Origins and Control of Community Types in the Human Microbiome

Microbiome-based stratification of healthy individuals into compositional categories, referred to as "enterotypes" or "community types", holds promise for drastically improving personalized medicine. Despite this potential, the existence of community types and the degree of their distinctness have been highly debated. Here we adopted a dynamic systems approach and found that heterogeneity in the interspecific interactions or the presence of strongly interacting species is sufficient to explain community types, independent of the topology of the underlying ecological network. By controlling the presence or absence of these strongly interacting species we can steer the microbial ecosystem to any desired community type. This open-loop control strategy still holds even when the community types are not distinct but appear as dense regions within a continuous gradient. This finding can be used to develop viable therapeutic strategies for shifting the microbial composition to a healthy configuration.

Safety-I, Safety-II and Resilience Engineering

In the quest to continually improve the health care delivered to patients, it is important to understand "what went wrong," also known as Safety-I, when there are undesired outcomes, but it is also important to understand, and optimize "what went right," also known as Safety-II. The difference between Safety-I and Safety-II are philosophical as well as pragmatic. Improving health care delivery involves understanding that health care delivery is a complex adaptive system; components of that system impact, and are impacted by, the actions of other components of the system. Challenges to optimal care include regular, irregular and unexampled threats. This article addresses the dangers of brittleness and miscalibration, as well as the value of adaptive capacity and margin. These qualities can, respectively, detract from or contribute to the emergence of organizational resilience. Resilience is characterized by the ability to monitor, react, anticipate, and learn. Finally, this article celebrates the importance of humans, who make use of system capabilities and proactively mitigate the effects of system limitations to contribute to successful outcomes.

Operational models of infrastructure resilience

We propose a definition of infrastructure resilience that is tied to the operation (or function) of an infrastructure as a system of interacting components and that can be objectively evaluated using quantitative models. Specifically, for any particular system, we use quantitative models of system operation to represent the decisions of an infrastructure operator who guides the behavior of the system as a whole, even in the presence of disruptions. Modeling infrastructure operation in this way makes it possible to systematically evaluate the consequences associated with the loss of infrastructure components, and leads to a precise notion of "operational resilience" that facilitates model verification, validation, and reproducible results. Using a simple example of a notional infrastructure, we demonstrate how to use these models for (1) assessing the operational resilience of an infrastructure system, (2) identifying critical vulnerabilities that threaten its continued function, and (3) advising policymakers on investments to improve resilience.

Quantitative Analysis of Robustness of Dynamic Response and Signal Transfer in Insulin mediated PI3K/AKT Pathway

Robustness is a critical feature of signaling pathways ensuring signal propagation with high fidelity in the event of perturbations. Here we present a detailed quantitative analysis of robustness in insulin mediated PI3K/AKT pathway, a critical signaling pathway maintaining self-renewal in human embryonic stem cells. Using global sensitivity analysis, we identified robustness promoting mechanisms that ensure (1) maintenance of a first order or overshoot dynamics of self-renewal molecule, p-AKT and (2) robust transfer of signals from oscillatory insulin stimulus to p-AKT in the presence of noise. Our results indicate that negative feedback controls the robustness to most perturbations. Faithful transfer of signal from the stimulating ligand to p-AKT occurs even in the presence of noise, albeit with signal attenuation and high frequency cut-off. Negative feedback contributes to signal attenuation, while positive regulators upstream of PIP₃ contribute to signal amplification. These results establish precise mechanisms to modulate self-renewal molecules like p-AKT.

Resilient distributed control in the presence of misbehaving agents in networked control systems

In this paper, we study the problem of reaching a consensus among all the agents in the networked control systems (NCS) in the presence of misbehaving agents. A reputation-based resilient distributed control algorithm is first proposed for the leader-follower consensus network. The proposed algorithm embeds a resilience mechanism that includes four phases (detection, mitigation, identification, and update), into the control process in a distributed manner. At each phase, every agent only uses local and one-hop neighbors' information to identify and isolate the misbehaving agents, and even compensate their effect on the system. We then extend the proposed algorithm to the leaderless consensus network by introducing and adding two recovery schemes (rollback and excitation recovery) into the current framework to guarantee the accurate convergence of the well-behaving agents in NCS. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through case studies in multirobot formation control and wireless sensor networks.

Robust efficiency and actuator saturation explain healthy heart rate control and variability

The correlation of healthy states with heart rate variability (HRV) using time series analyses is well documented. Whereas these studies note the accepted proximal role of autonomic nervous system balance in HRV patterns, the responsible deeper physiological, clinically relevant mechanisms have not been fully explained. Using mathematical tools from control theory, we combine mechanistic models of basic physiology with experimental exercise data from healthy human subjects to explain causal relationships among states of stress vs. health, HR control, and HRV, and more importantly, the physiologic requirements and constraints underlying these relationships. Nonlinear dynamics play an important explanatory role--most fundamentally in the actuator saturations arising from unavoidable tradeoffs in robust homeostasis and metabolic efficiency. These results are grounded in domain-specific mechanisms, tradeoffs, and constraints, but they also illustrate important, universal properties of complex systems. We show that the study of complex biological phenomena like HRV requires a framework which facilitates inclusion of diverse domain specifics (e.g., due to physiology, evolution, and measurement technology) in addition to general theories of efficiency, robustness, feedback, dynamics, and supporting mathematical tools.

Neuronal spike timing adaptation described with a fractional leaky integrate-and-fire model

The voltage trace of neuronal activities can follow multiple timescale dynamics that arise from correlated membrane conductances. Such processes can result in power-law behavior in which the membrane voltage cannot be characterized with a single time constant. The emergent effect of these membrane correlations is a non-Markovian process that can be modeled with a fractional derivative. A fractional derivative is a non-local process in which the value of the variable is determined by integrating a temporal weighted voltage trace, also called the memory trace. Here we developed and analyzed a fractional leaky integrate-and-fire model in which the exponent of the fractional derivative can vary from 0 to 1, with 1 representing the normal derivative. As the exponent of the fractional derivative decreases, the weights of the voltage trace increase. Thus, the value of the voltage is increasingly correlated with the trajectory of the voltage in the past. By varying only the fractional exponent, our model can reproduce upward and downward spike adaptations found experimentally in neocortical pyramidal cells and tectal neurons in vitro. The model also produces spikes with longer first-spike latency and high inter-spike variability with power-law distribution. We further analyze spike adaptation and the responses to noisy and oscillatory input. The fractional model generates reliable spike patterns in response to noisy input. Overall, the spiking activity of the fractional leaky integrate-and-fire model deviates from the spiking activity of the Markovian model and reflects the temporal accumulated intrinsic membrane dynamics that affect the response of the neuron to external stimulation.

Spike adaptation is a property of most neurons. When spike time adaptation occurs over multiple time scales, the dynamics can be described by a power-law. We study the computational properties of a leaky integrate-and-fire model with power-law adaptation. Instead of explicitly modeling the adaptation process by the contribution of slowly changing conductances, we use a fractional temporal derivative framework. The exponent of the fractional derivative represents the degree of adaptation of the membrane voltage, where 1 is the normal leaky integrator while values less than 1 produce increasing correlations in the voltage trace. The temporal correlation is interpreted as a memory trace that depends on the value of the fractional derivative. We identify the memory trace in the fractional model as the sum of the instantaneous differentiation weighted by a function that depends on the fractional exponent, and it provides non-local information to the incoming stimulus. The spiking dynamics of the fractional leaky integrate-and-fire model show memory dependence that can result in downward or upward spike adaptation. Our model provides a framework for understanding how long-range membrane voltage correlations affect spiking dynamics and information integration in neurons.

Is SDN the de-constraining constraint of the future internet?

Dagstuhl hosted a three-day seminar on the Future Internet on March 25-27, 2013. At the seminar, about 40 invited researchers from academia and industry discussed the promises, approaches, and open challenges of the Future Internet. This report gives a general overview of the presentations and outcomes of discussions of the seminar.

In Darwinian evolution, feedback from natural selection leads to biased mutations

Natural selection provides feedback through which information about the environment and its recurring challenges is captured, inherited, and accumulated within genomes in the form of variations that contribute to survival. The variation upon which natural selection acts is generally described as "random." Yet evidence has been mounting for decades, from such phenomena as mutation hotspots, horizontal gene transfer, and highly mutable repetitive sequences, that variation is far from the simplifying idealization of random processes as white (uniform in space and time and independent of the environment or context).  This paper focuses on what is known about the generation and control of mutational variation, emphasizing that it is not uniform across the genome or in time, not unstructured with respect to survival, and is neither memoryless nor independent of the (also far from white) environment. We suggest that, as opposed to frequentist methods, Bayesian analysis could capture the evolution of nonuniform probabilities of distinct classes of mutation, and argue not only that the locations, styles, and timing of real mutations are not correctly modeled as generated by a white noise random process, but that such a process would be inconsistent with evolutionary theory.

Pervasive flexibility in living technologies through degeneracy-based design

The capacity to adapt can greatly influence the success of systems that need to compensate for damaged parts, learn how to achieve robust performance in new environments, or exploit novel opportunities that originate from new technological interfaces or emerging markets. Many of the conditions in which technology is required to adapt cannot be anticipated during its design stage, thus creating a challenge for the designer. Inspired by the study of a range of biological systems, we propose that degeneracy-the realization of multiple, functionally versatile components with contextually overlapping functional redundancy-will support adaptation in technologies, because it effects pervasive flexibility, evolutionary innovation, and homeostatic robustness. We provide examples of degeneracy in a number of rudimentary living technologies, from military sociotechnical systems to swarm robotics, and we present design principles-including shared protocols, loose regulatory coupling, and functional versatility-that allow degeneracy to arise in both biological and man-made systems.

Evolutionary mechanics: new engineering principles for the emergence of flexibility in a dynamic and uncertain world

Engineered systems are designed to deftly operate under predetermined conditions yet are notoriously fragile when unexpected perturbations arise. In contrast, biological systems operate in a highly flexible manner; learn quickly adequate responses to novel conditions, and evolve new routines and traits to remain competitive under persistent environmental change. A recent theory on the origins of biological flexibility has proposed that degeneracy-the existence of multi-functional components with partially overlapping functions-is a primary determinant of the robustness and adaptability found in evolved systems. While degeneracy's contribution to biological flexibility is well documented, there has been little investigation of degeneracy design principles for achieving flexibility in systems engineering. Actually, the conditions that can lead to degeneracy are routinely eliminated in engineering design. With the planning of transportation vehicle fleets taken as a case study, this article reports evidence that degeneracy improves the robustness and adaptability of a simulated fleet towards unpredicted changes in task requirements without incurring costs to fleet efficiency. We find that degeneracy supports faster rates of design adaptation and ultimately leads to better fleet designs. In investigating the limitations of degeneracy as a design principle, we consider decision-making difficulties that arise from degeneracy's influence on fleet complexity. While global decision-making becomes more challenging, we also find degeneracy accommodates rapid distributed decision-making leading to (near-optimal) robust system performance. Given the range of conditions where favorable short-term and long-term performance outcomes are observed, we propose that degeneracy may fundamentally alter the propensity for adaptation and is useful within different engineering and planning contexts.

Architecture, constraints, and behavior

This paper aims to bridge progress in neuroscience involving sophisticated quantitative analysis of behavior, including the use of robust control, with other relevant conceptual and theoretical frameworks from systems engineering, systems biology, and mathematics. Familiar and accessible case studies are used to illustrate concepts of robustness, organization, and architecture (modularity and protocols) that are central to understanding complex networks. These essential organizational features are hidden during normal function of a system but are fundamental for understanding the nature, design, and function of complex biologic and technologic systems.

Glycolytic oscillations and limits on robust efficiency

Both engineering and evolution are constrained by trade-offs between efficiency and robustness, but theory that formalizes this fact is limited. For a simple two-state model of glycolysis, we explicitly derive analytic equations for hard trade-offs between robustness and efficiency with oscillations as an inevitable side effect. The model describes how the trade-offs arise from individual parameters, including the interplay of feedback control with autocatalysis of network products necessary to power and catalyze intermediate reactions. We then use control theory to prove that the essential features of these hard trade-off "laws" are universal and fundamental, in that they depend minimally on the details of this system and generalize to the robust efficiency of any autocatalytic network. The theory also suggests worst-case conditions that are consistent with initial experiments.