Extending the climatological concept of ‘ Detection and Attribution’ to global change ecology in the Anthropocene

A general framework to quantify and compare ecological impacts under temporal dynamics

Biodiversity is diminishing at alarming rates due to multiple anthropogenic drivers. To mitigate these drivers, their impacts must be quantified accurately and comparably across drivers. To enable that, we present a generally applicable framework introducing fundamental principles of ecological impact quantification, including the quantification of interactions between multiple drivers. The framework contrasts biodiversity variables in impacted against those in unimpacted or other reference situations while accounting for their temporal dynamics through modelling. Properly accounting for temporal dynamics reduces biases in impact quantification and comparison. The framework addresses key questions around ecological impacts in global change science, namely, how to compare impacts under temporal dynamics across stressors, how to account for stressor interactions in such comparisons, and how to compare the success of management actions over time.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of forest insect populations under climate change

Effects of climate on forest insect populations are complex, often involving drivers that are opposing, nonlinear, and nonadditive. Overall, climate change is driving an increase in outbreaks and range shifts. Links between climate and forest insect dynamics are becoming clearer; however, the underlying mechanisms remain less clear. Climate alters forest insect population dynamics directly through life history, physiology, and voltinism, and indirectly through effects on host trees and natural enemies. Climatic effects on bark beetles, wood-boring insects, and sap-suckers are often indirect, through effects on host-tree susceptibility, whereas climatic effects on defoliators are comparatively more direct. We recommend process-based approaches to global distribution mapping and population models to identify the underlying mechanisms and enable effective management of forest insects.

Plants in the UK flower a month earlier under recent warming

Global temperatures are rising at an unprecedented rate, but environmental responses are often difficult to recognize and quantify. Long-term observations of plant phenology, the annually recurring sequence of plant developmental stages, can provide sensitive measures of climate change and important information for ecosystem services. Here, we present 419 354 recordings of the first flowering date from 406 plant species in the UK between 1753 and 2019 CE. Community-wide first flowering advanced by almost one month on average when comparing all observations before and after 1986 (p < 0.0001). The mean first flowering time is 6 days earlier in southern than northern sites, 5 days earlier under urban than rural settings, and 1 day earlier at lower than higher elevations. Compared to trees and shrubs, the largest lifeform-specific phenological shift of 32 days is found in herbs, which are generally characterized by fast turnover rates and potentially high levels of genetic adaptation. Correlated with January–April maximum temperatures at −0.81 from 1952–2019 (p < 0.0001), the observed trends (5.4 days per decade) and extremes (66 days between the earliest and latest annual mean) in the UK's first flowering dataset can affect the functioning and productivity of ecosystems and agriculture.

A case for associational resistance: Apparent support for the stress gradient hypothesis varies with study system

According to the stress gradient hypothesis (SGH), ecological interactions between organisms shift positively as environmental stress increases. In the case of associational resistance, habitat is modified to ameliorate stress, benefitting other organisms. The SGH is contentious due to conflicting evidence and theoretical perspectives, so we adopted a meta-analytic approach to determine if it is widely supported across a variety of contexts, including different kingdoms, ecosystems, habitats, interactions, stressors, and life history stages. We developed an extensive list of Boolean search criteria to search the published ecological literature and successfully detect studies that both directly tested the hypothesis, and those that were relevant but never mentioned it. We found that the SGH is well supported by studies that feature bacteria, plants, terrestrial ecosystems, interspecific negative interactions, adults, survival instead of growth or reproduction, and drought, fire, and nutrient stress. We conclude that the SGH is indeed a broadly relevant ecological hypothesis that is currently held back by cross-disciplinary communication barriers. More SGH research is needed beyond the scope of interspecific plant competition, and more SGH research should feature multifactor stress. There remains a need to account for positive interactions in scientific pursuits, such as associational resistance in tests of the SGH.