Body size, carry-over effects and survival in a seasonal environment: consequences for population dynamics

Early warning indicators of population collapse in a seasonal environment

Recent studies have demonstrated that generic statistical signals derived from time series of population abundance and fitness-related traits of individuals can provide reliable indicators of impending shifts in population dynamics. However, how the seasonal timing of environmental stressors influences these early warning indicators is not well understood. The goal of this study was to experimentally assess whether the timing of stressors influences the production, detection and sensitivity of abundance- and trait-based early warning indicators derived from declining populations. In a multi-generation, season-specific habitat loss experiment, we exposed replicate populations of Drosophila melanogaster to one of two rates of chronic habitat loss (10% or 20% per generation) in either the breeding or the non-breeding period. We counted population abundance at the beginning of each season, and measured body mass and activity levels in a sample of individuals at the end of each generation. When habitat was lost during the breeding period, declining populations produced signals consistent with those documented in previous studies. Inclusion of trait-based indicators generally improved the detection of impending population collapse. However, when habitat was lost during the non-breeding period, the predictive capacity of these indicators was comparatively diminished. Our results have important implications for interpreting signals in the wild because they suggest that the production and detection of early warning indicators depends on the season in which stressors occur, and that this is likely related to the capacity of populations to respond numerically the following season.

An experimental test of the ecological mechanisms driving density-mediated carry-over effects in a seasonal population

Carry-over effects occur when past experience influences current individual performance. Although variation in conspecific density in one season has been shown to carry over to influence dynamics in the following season, the proximate ecological mechanisms driving these effects are unknown. One hypothesis is that high density decreases food availability, resulting in poor physiological condition, which in turn compromises performance the next season. Alternatively, high conspecific density could also lead to a high degree of antagonistic interactions, decreasing the amount of time individuals spend foraging. To investigate these hypotheses, we applied a factorial design where both conspecific density and per capita food availability during the non-breeding period were independently manipulated in seasonal populations of common fruit flies (Drosophila melanogaster Meigen, 1830). Individual condition at the beginning of the breeding period was influenced by per capita food availability but not density during the previous non-breeding period. In contrast, reproductive output was most strongly influenced by the interaction between per capita food availability and density in the previous non-breeding period, such that populations that experienced high non-breeding densities and low food availability had the lowest reproductive output. However, the strength of this effect was relatively weak. Our results demonstrate how environmental and social conditions in one part of the annual cycle can carry over to influence individual performance in subsequent periods.

Simple signals indicate which period of the annual cycle drives declines in seasonal populations

For declining wild populations, a critical aspect of effective conservation is understanding when and where the causes of decline occur. The primary drivers of decline in migratory and seasonal populations can often be attributed to a specific period of the year. However, generic, broadly applicable indicators of these season-specific drivers of population decline remain elusive. We used a multi-generation experiment to investigate whether habitat loss in either the breeding or non-breeding period generated distinct signatures of population decline. When breeding habitat was reduced, population size remained relatively stable for several generations, before declining precipitously. When non-breeding habitat was reduced, between-season variation in population counts increased relative to control populations, and non-breeding population size declined steadily. Changes in seasonal vital rates and other indicators were predicted by the season in which habitat loss treatment occurred. Per capita reproductive output increased when non-breeding habitat was reduced and decreased with breeding habitat reduction, whereas per capita non-breeding survival showed the opposite trends. Our results reveal how simple signals inherent in counts and demographics of declining populations can indicate which period of the annual cycle is driving declines.

Filling in the gaps in survival analysis: using field data to infer plant responses to environmental stressors

Elucidating how organismal survival depends on the environment is a core component of ecological and evolutionary research. To reconcile high-frequency covariates with lower-frequency demographic censuses, many statistical tools involve aggregating environmental conditions over long periods, potentially obscuring the importance of fluctuating conditions in driving mortality. Here, we introduce a flexible model designed to infer how survival probabilities depend on changing environmental covariates. Specifically, the model (1) quantifies effects of environmental covariates at a higher frequency than the census intervals, and (2) allows partitioning of environmental drivers of individual survival into acute (short-term) and chronic (accumulated) effects. By applying our method to a long-term observational data set of eight annual plant species, we show we can accurately infer daily survival probabilities as temperature and moisture levels change. Next, we show that a species' water use efficiency, known to mediate annual plant population dynamics, is positively correlated with the importance of "chronic stress" inferred by the model. This suggests that model parameters can reflect underlying physiological mechanisms. This method is also applicable to other binary responses (hatching, phenology) or systems (insects, nestlings). Once known, environmental sensitivities can be used for ecological forecasting even when the frequency or variability of environments are changing.

Seasonal variation in basal and plastic cold tolerance: Adaptation is influenced by both long- and short-term phenotypic plasticity

Understanding how thermal selection affects phenotypic distributions across different time scales will allow us to predict the effect of climate change on the fitness of ectotherms. We tested how seasonal temperature variation affects basal levels of cold tolerance and two types of phenotypic plasticity in Drosophila melanogaster. Developmental acclimation occurs as developmental stages of an organism are exposed to seasonal changes in temperature and its effect is irreversible, while reversible short-term acclimation occurs daily in response to diurnal changes in temperature. We collected wild flies from a temperate population across seasons and measured two cold tolerance metrics (chill-coma recovery and cold stress survival) and their responses to developmental and short-term acclimation. Chill-coma recovery responded to seasonal shifts in temperature, and phenotypic plasticity following both short-term and developmental acclimation improved cold tolerance. This improvement indicated that both types of plasticity are adaptive, and that plasticity can compensate for genetic variation in basal cold tolerance during warmer parts of the season when flies tend to be less cold tolerant. We also observed a significantly stronger trade-off between basal cold tolerance and short-term acclimation during warmer months. For the longer-term developmental acclimation, a trade-off persisted regardless of season. A relationship between the two types of plasticity may provide additional insight into why some measures of thermal tolerance are more sensitive to seasonal variation than others.

Scared fitless: Context-dependent response of fear to loss of predators over evolutionary time in Drosophila melanogaster

Fear of predation can disappear rapidly in the absence of predators, as bolder individuals outcompete vigilant individuals for food and mates. To examine the evolution of fear in a seasonal environment, we exposed Drosophila melanogaster to mantid predators during the breeding season and the non-breeding season, and compared these with a control. We compared three Drosophila lineages that were maintained in captivity for (1) ∼45 years without mantid predators, (2) ∼5 years without mantid predators, and (3) ∼5 years with mantid predators (predator-evolved). The presence of a predator during the non-breeding season caused reduced fecundity in the following breeding season, independent of the evolutionary lineage. However, the presence of a predator during reproduction caused offspring to emerge earlier, and this effect was more pronounced in the predator-evolved lineage. Thus, the fear response was related to evolutionary lineage only during the larval life stage, which is when foraging competition, and hence the cost of fear, may be highest. We present one of the first experimental demonstrations that emotion (fear) can evolve in response to environmental context.

A fitness trade-off between seasons causes multigenerational cycles in phenotype and population size

Although seasonality is widespread and can cause fluctuations in the intensity and direction of natural selection, we have little information about the consequences of seasonal fitness trade-offs for population dynamics. Here we exposed populations of Drosophila melanogaster to repeated seasonal changes in resources across 58 generations and used experimental and mathematical approaches to investigate how viability selection on body size in the non-breeding season could affect demography. We show that opposing seasonal episodes of natural selection on body size interacted with both direct and delayed density dependence to cause populations to undergo predictable multigenerational density cycles. Our results provide evidence that seasonality can set the conditions for life-history trade-offs and density dependence, which can, in turn, interact to cause multigenerational population cycles.

Experimental evidence for within- and cross-seasonal effects of fear on survival and reproduction

Fear of predation can have non-lethal effects on individuals within a season but whether, and to what extent, these effects carry over into subsequent seasons is not known. Using a replicated seasonal population of the common fruit fly, Drosophila melanogaster, we examined both within- and cross-seasonal effects of fear on survival and reproductive output. Compared to controls, flies exposed to the scent of mantid (Tenodera sinensis) predators in the non-breeding season had 64% higher mortality, and lost 60% more mass by the end of the non-breeding season and, in the subsequent breeding season, produced 20% fewer offspring that weighed 9% less at maturity. Flies exposed to the scent of mantids in the breeding season did not produce fewer offspring, but their offspring developed faster and weighed less as adults compared to the controls. Our results demonstrate how effects of fear can be manifested both within and across seasons and emphasize the importance of understanding how events throughout the annual cycle influence individual success of animals living in seasonal environments.

Habitat-mediated carry-over effects lead to context-dependent outcomes of species interactions

When individuals disperse, their performance in newly colonized habitats can be influenced by the conditions they experienced in the past, leading to environmental carry-over effects. While carry-over effects are ubiquitous in animal and plant systems, their impact on species interactions and coexistence are largely ignored in traditional coexistence theory. Here we used a combination of modelling and experiments with two competing species to examine when and how such environmental carry-over effects influence community dynamics and competitive exclusions. We found that variation in the natal habitat quality of colonizing individuals created carry-over effects which altered competitive coefficients, fecundity and mortality rates, and extinction probabilities of both species. As a consequence, the dynamics of competitive exclusion within and across habitat types was contingent on the natal habitat of colonizing individuals, indicating that spatial carry-over effects can fundamentally alter the dynamics and outcome of interspecific competition. Interestingly, carry-over effects persistently influenced dynamics in systems with interspecific competition for the entire duration of the experiment while carry-over effects were transient and only influenced initial dynamics in single-species populations. Thus carry-over effects can be enhanced by species interactions, suggesting that their long-term effects may often not be accurately predicted by single-species studies. Given that carry-over effects are ubiquitous in heterogeneous landscapes, our results provide a novel mechanism that could help explain variation in the structure of natural communities.