Continental-scale travelling waves in forest geometrids in Europe: an evaluation of the evidence

From pattern to process? Dual travelling waves, with contrasting propagation speeds, best describe a self-organised spatio-temporal pattern in population growth of a cyclic rodent

The dynamics of cyclic populations distributed in space result from the relative strength of synchronising influences and the limited dispersal of destabilising factors (activators and inhibitors), known to cause multi‐annual population cycles. However, while each of these have been well studied in isolation, there is limited empirical evidence of how the processes of synchronisation and activation–inhibition act together, largely owing to the scarcity of datasets with sufficient spatial and temporal scale and resolution. We assessed a variety of models that could be underlying the spatio‐temporal pattern, designed to capture both theoretical and empirical understandings of travelling waves using large‐scale (>35,000 km²), multi‐year (2011–2017) field monitoring data on abundances of common vole (Microtus arvalis), a cyclic agricultural rodent pest. We found most support for a pattern formed from the summation of two radial travelling waves with contrasting speeds that together describe population growth rates across the region.

Spatial synchrony in sub-arctic geometrid moth outbreaks reflects dispersal in larval and adult life cycle stages

Spatial synchrony in population dynamics can be caused by dispersal or spatially correlated variation in environmental factors like weather (Moran effect). Distinguishing between these mechanisms is challenging for natural populations, and the study of dispersal-induced synchrony in particular has been dominated by theoretical modelling and laboratory experiments. The goal of the present study was to evaluate the evidence for dispersal as a cause of meso-scale (distances of tens of kilometres) spatial synchrony in natural populations of the two cyclic geometrid moths Epirrita autumnata and Operophtera brumata in sub-arctic mountain birch forest in northern Norway. To infer the role of dispersal in geometrid synchrony, we applied three complementary approaches, namely estimating the effect of design-based dispersal barriers (open sea) on synchrony, comparing the strength of synchrony between E. autumnata (winged adults) and the less dispersive O. brumata (wingless adult females), and relating the directionality (anisotropy) of synchrony to the predominant wind directions during spring, when geometrid larvae engage in windborne dispersal (ballooning). The estimated effect of dispersal barriers on synchrony was almost three times stronger for the less dispersive O. brumata than E. autumnata. Inter-site synchrony was also weakest for O. brumata at all spatial lags. Both observations argue for adult dispersal as an important synchronizing mechanism at the spatial scales considered. Further, synchrony in both moth species showed distinct anisotropy and was most spatially extensive parallel to the east-west axis, coinciding closely to the overall dominant wind direction. This argues for a synchronizing effect of windborne larval dispersal. Congruent with most extensive dispersal along the east-west axis, E. autumnata also showed evidence for a travelling wave moving southwards at a speed of 50-80 km/year. Our results suggest that dispersal processes can leave clear signatures in both the strength and directionality of synchrony in field populations, and highlight wind-driven dispersal as promising avenue for further research on spatial synchrony in natural insect populations.

Postglacial recolonization shaped the genetic diversity of the winter moth (Operophtera brumata) in Europe

Changes in climate conditions, particularly during the Quaternary climatic oscillations, have long been recognized to be important for shaping patterns of species diversity. For species residing in the western Palearctic, two commonly observed genetic patterns resulting from these cycles are as follows: (1) that the numbers and distributions of genetic lineages correspond with the use of geographically distinct glacial refugia and (2) that southern populations are generally more diverse than northern populations (the “southern richness, northern purity” paradigm). To determine whether these patterns hold true for the widespread pest species the winter moth (Operophtera brumata), we genotyped 699 individual winter moths collected from 15 Eurasian countries with 24 polymorphic microsatellite loci. We find strong evidence for the presence of two major genetic clusters that diverged ~18 to ~22 ka, with evidence that secondary contact (i.e., hybridization) resumed ~ 5 ka along a well‐established hybrid zone in Central Europe. This pattern supports the hypothesis that contemporary populations descend from populations that resided in distinct glacial refugia. However, unlike many previous studies of postglacial recolonization, we found no evidence for the “southern richness, northern purity” paradigm. We also find evidence for ongoing gene flow between populations in adjacent Eurasian countries, suggesting that long‐distance dispersal plays an important part in shaping winter moth genetic diversity. In addition, we find that this gene flow is predominantly in a west‐to‐east direction, suggesting that recently debated reports of cyclical outbreaks of winter moth spreading from east to west across Europe are not the result of dispersal.