Northern expansion is not compensating for southern declines in North American boreal forests

Climate change is expected to shift the boreal biome northward through expansion at the northern and contraction at the southern boundary respectively. However, biome-scale evidence of such a shift is rare. Here, we used remotely-sensed tree cover data to quantify temporal changes across the North American boreal biome from 2000 to 2019. We reveal a strong north-south asymmetry in tree cover change, coupled with a range shrinkage of tree cover distributions. We found no evidence for tree cover expansion in the northern biome, while tree cover increased markedly in the core of the biome range. By contrast, tree cover declined along the southern biome boundary, where losses were related largely to wildfires and timber logging. We show that these contrasting trends are structural indicators for a possible onset of a biome contraction which may lead to long-term carbon declines.

Environmental conditions alter successional trajectories on an ephemeral resource: a field experiment with beetles in dead wood

Successional processes can be observed for many organisms and resources, but most studies of succession have focused on plants. A general framework has been proposed, advocating that successional patterns in species turnover are predominantly driven by competition, dispersal or abiotic limitation, and that the patterning of species accumulation over time gives clues to which process is most influential in a given system. We applied this framework to succession in communities of wood-living beetles, utilizing ephemeral resources in the form of 60 experimentally created dead aspen high stumps. High stumps were created at sun-exposed sites (high ambient temperature; favourable abiotic conditions) and shaded sites (low ambient temperature; abiotically limiting conditions). The sites were intermixed, ensuring similar dispersal opportunities. Beetle species richness and abundance were monitored with flight interception traps over four consecutive years. Consistent with predictions from the tested framework, several beetle functional groups accumulated species more slowly at the unfavourable shaded sites than at the favourable exposed sites. Species richness at the exposed sites increased rapidly to a plateau, consistent with a limiting effect of competition on community development. Similar results were obtained for beetle abundance and community structure. Part of the variance in beetle community structure was jointly explained by habitat and fungal community composition, suggesting that differences in the composition and developmental rate of fungal communities in the two habitats contributed to the observed patterns. Targeted experimental studies are now required to decisively establish what processes underlie the contrasting successional trajectories in the two environments.

Spatial synchrony in sub-arctic geometrid moth outbreaks reflects dispersal in larval and adult life cycle stages

Spatial synchrony in population dynamics can be caused by dispersal or spatially correlated variation in environmental factors like weather (Moran effect). Distinguishing between these mechanisms is challenging for natural populations, and the study of dispersal-induced synchrony in particular has been dominated by theoretical modelling and laboratory experiments. The goal of the present study was to evaluate the evidence for dispersal as a cause of meso-scale (distances of tens of kilometres) spatial synchrony in natural populations of the two cyclic geometrid moths Epirrita autumnata and Operophtera brumata in sub-arctic mountain birch forest in northern Norway. To infer the role of dispersal in geometrid synchrony, we applied three complementary approaches, namely estimating the effect of design-based dispersal barriers (open sea) on synchrony, comparing the strength of synchrony between E. autumnata (winged adults) and the less dispersive O. brumata (wingless adult females), and relating the directionality (anisotropy) of synchrony to the predominant wind directions during spring, when geometrid larvae engage in windborne dispersal (ballooning). The estimated effect of dispersal barriers on synchrony was almost three times stronger for the less dispersive O. brumata than E. autumnata. Inter-site synchrony was also weakest for O. brumata at all spatial lags. Both observations argue for adult dispersal as an important synchronizing mechanism at the spatial scales considered. Further, synchrony in both moth species showed distinct anisotropy and was most spatially extensive parallel to the east-west axis, coinciding closely to the overall dominant wind direction. This argues for a synchronizing effect of windborne larval dispersal. Congruent with most extensive dispersal along the east-west axis, E. autumnata also showed evidence for a travelling wave moving southwards at a speed of 50-80 km/year. Our results suggest that dispersal processes can leave clear signatures in both the strength and directionality of synchrony in field populations, and highlight wind-driven dispersal as promising avenue for further research on spatial synchrony in natural insect populations.

Identification and Evaluation of 21 Novel Microsatellite Markers from the Autumnal Moth (Epirrita autumnata) (Lepidoptera: Geometridae)

The autumnal moth (Epirrita autumnata) is a cyclically outbreaking forest Lepidoptera with circumpolar distribution and substantial impact on Northern ecosystems. We have isolated 21 microsatellites from the species to facilitate population genetic studies of population cycles, outbreaks, and crashes. First, PCR primers and PCR conditions were developed to amplify 19 trinucleotide loci and two tetranucleotide loci in six multiplex PCR approaches and then analyzed for species specificity, sensitivity and precision. Twelve of the loci showed simple tandem repeat array structures while nine loci showed imperfect repeat structures, and repeat numbers varied in our material between six and 15. The application in population genetics for all the 21 microsatellites were further validated in 48 autumnal moths sampled from Northern Norway, and allelic variation was detected in 19 loci. The detected numbers of alleles per locus ranged from two to 13, and the observed and expected heterozygosities varied from 0.04 to 0.69 and 0.04 to 0.79, respectively. Evidence for linkage disequilibrium was found for six loci as well as indication of one null allele. We find that these novel microsatellites and their multiplex-PCR assays are suitable for further research on fine- and large-scale population-genetic studies of Epirrita autumnata.

Numerical responses of saproxylic beetles to rapid increases in dead wood availability following geometrid moth outbreaks in sub-arctic mountain birch forest

Saproxylic insects play an important part in decomposing dead wood in healthy forest ecosystems, but little is known about their role in the aftermath of large-scale forest mortality caused by pest insect outbreaks. We used window traps to study short-term changes in the abundance and community structure of saproxylic beetles following extensive mortality of mountain birch in sub-arctic northern Norway caused by an outbreak of geometrid moths. Three to five years after the outbreak, the proportion of obligate saproxylic individuals in the beetle community was roughly 10% higher in forest damaged by the outbreak than in undamaged forest. This was mainly due to two early-successional saproxylic beetle species. Facultative saproxylic beetles showed no consistent differences between damaged and undamaged forest. These findings would suggest a weak numerical response of the saproxylic beetle community to the dead wood left by the outbreak. We suggest that species-specific preferences for certain wood decay stages may limit the number of saproxylic species that respond numerically to an outbreak at a particular time, and that increases in responding species may be constrained by limitations to the amount of dead wood that can be exploited within a given timeframe (i.e. satiation effects). Low diversity of beetle species or slow development of larvae in our cold sub-arctic study region may also limit numerical responses. Our study suggests that saproxylic beetles, owing to weak numerical responses, may so far have played a minor role in decomposing the vast quantities of dead wood left by the moth outbreak.

Phenological diversity in the interactions between winter moth (Operophtera brumata) larvae and parasitoid wasps in sub-arctic mountain birch forest

Population cycles of the winter moth (Operophtera brumata) in sub-arctic coastal birch forests show high spatiotemporal variation in amplitude. Peak larval densities range from levels causing little foliage damage to outbreaks causing spatially extensive defoliation. Moreover, outbreaks typically occur at or near the altitudinal treeline. It has been hypothesized that spatiotemporal variation in O. brumata cycle amplitude results from climate-induced variation in the degree of phenological matching between trophic levels, possibly between moth larvae and parasitoids. The likelihood of mismatching phenologies between larvae and parasitoids is expected to depend on how specialized parasitoids are, both as individual species and as a guild, to attacking specific larval developmental stages (i.e. instars). To investigate the larval instar-specificity of parasitoids, we studied the timing of parasitoid attacks relative to larval phenology. We employed an observational study design, with sequential sampling over the larval period, along an altitudinal gradient harbouring a pronounced treeline outbreak of O. brumata. Within the larval parasitoid guild, containing seven species groups, the timing of attack by different groups followed a successional sequence throughout the moth's larval period and each group attacked 1-2 instars. Such phenological diversity within parasitoid guilds may lower the likelihood of climate-induced trophic mismatches between victim populations and many/all of their enemies. Parasitism rates declined with increasing altitude for most parasitoid groups and for the parasitoid guild as a whole. However, the observed spatiotemporal parasitism patterns provided no clear evidence for or against altitudinal mismatch between larval and parasitoid phenology.