Phase-dependent climate-predator interactions explain three decades of variation in neonatal caribou survival

Faithful pals and familiar locales: differentiating social and spatial site fidelity during reproduction

Site fidelity-the tendency to reuse familiar spaces-is expected to improve fitness. Familiarity with the local environment is particularly crucial when resource demands or predation risk are high. Consequently, site fidelity often peaks during reproduction when energetic costs are high and offspring are vulnerable. For many species, the environment they experience is not solely a function of geography but also of the social environment. Social fidelity, the selection for familiar social environments, could constitute an independent or parallel strategy to spatial fidelity when considering behaviour at the spatial-social interface. Using global positioning system locations from caribou across Newfoundland, we tested whether females selected calving sites based on proximity to familiar conspecifics, in addition to geographical (spatial) fidelity. These strategies were synergistic, not alternative, and correlated across the population but more variable within individuals. We also tested whether either form of fidelity affected reproductive success. We failed to detect an effect of spatial or social fidelity on reproductive success in this population. Nevertheless, given the association between social and spatial fidelity and the demonstrated fitness consequences of site fidelity in other systems, familiar conspecifics and the potential benefits these social partners provide may be an underappreciated component driving site fidelity.This article is part of the theme issue 'The spatial-social interface: a theoretical and empirical integration'.

The adaptive value of density-dependent habitat specialization and social network centrality

Density dependence is a fundamental ecological process. In particular, animal habitat selection and social behavior often affect fitness in a density-dependent manner. The Ideal Free Distribution (IFD) and niche variation hypothesis (NVH) present distinct predictions associated with Optimal Foraging Theory about how the effect of habitat selection on fitness varies with population density. Using caribou (Rangifer tarandus) in Canada as a model system, we test competing hypotheses about how habitat specialization, social behavior, and annual reproductive success (co)vary across a population density gradient. Within a behavioral reaction norm framework, we estimate repeatability, behavioral plasticity, and covariance among social behavior and habitat selection to investigate the adaptive value of sociality and habitat selection. In support of NVH, but not the IFD, we find that at high density habitat specialists had higher annual reproductive success than generalists, but were also less social than generalists, suggesting the possibility that specialists were less social to avoid competition. Our study supports niche variation as a mechanism for density-dependent habitat specialization.

Robust Responses of Female Caribou to Changes in Food Supply

AbstractUngulates can respond to changes in food supply by altering foraging behavior, digestive function, and metabolism. A multifaceted response to an environmental change is considered robust. Short seasons of plant growth make herbivores sensitive to changes in food supply because maintenance and production must be accomplished in less time with fewer options in a more fragile response. Caribou live at high latitudes where short summers constrain their response to changes in food supply. We measured the ability of female caribou to resist and tolerate changes in the quality and quantity of their food supply during winter and summer. Caribou resisted changes in food abundance and quality by changing food intake and physical activity with changes in daily temperature within each season. Peak food intake rose by 134% from winter pregnancy to summer lactation (98 vs. 229 g kg-0.75 d-1), as digestible requirements to maintain the body increased by 85% for energy (1,164 vs. 2,155 kJ kg-0.75 d-1) and by 266% for N (0.79 vs. 2.89 g N kg-0.75 d-1). Caribou required a diet with a digestible content of 12 kJ g-1 and 0.8% N in pregnancy, 18 kJ g-1 and 1.9% N in early lactation, and 11 kJ g-1 and 1.2% N in late lactation, which corresponds with the phenology of the wild diet. Female caribou tolerated restriction of ad lib. food intake to 58% of their energy requirement (680 vs. 1,164 kJ kg-0.75 d-1) during winter pregnancy and to 84% of their energy requirement (1,814 vs. 2,155 kJ kg-0.75 d-1) during summer lactation without a change in stress level, as indicated by fecal corticosterone concentration. Conversely, caribou can respond to increased availability of food with a spare capacity to process digestible energy and N at 123% (2,642 vs. 2,155 kJ kg-0.75 d-1) and 145% (4.20 vs. 2.89 g N kg-0.75 d-1) of those respective requirements during lactation. Robust responses to changes in food supply allow caribou to sustain reproduction, which would buffer demographic response. However, herds may decline when thresholds of behavioral resistance and physiological tolerance are frequently exceeded. Therefore, the challenge for managing declining populations of caribou and other robust species is to identify declines in robustness before their response becomes fragile.

Efficacy of Bomas (Kraals) in Mitigating Livestock Depredation in Maasai Mara Conservancies, Kenya

Livestock depredation is a major conservation challenge globally, causing significant economic losses to pastoralists and threatening large carnivore species outside protected areas. Our study investigated the temporal and spatial distribution of livestock depredation incidences, carnivore species associated with livestock depredation, and assessed mitigation measures in Maasai Mara Conservancies in Southern Kenya. Using daily monitoring of livestock depredation cases, we made comparisons between livestock attacks occurring in predator-proof bomas and those with traditional kraals. A total of 305 livestock depredation incidents were recorded between January and December 2021, translating to a total tally of 1411 livestock maimed or killed. Most livestock depredation incidents occurred during the day (59%) as opposed to night (41%), but this difference was not significant. Livestock depredation incidents in the nighttime occurred mostly inside traditional kraals (34%) and occurred the least in predator-proof kraals (2%). Lions were responsible for more livestock attacks in the grazing fields compared with leopards, hyenas, and wild dogs. Hyenas were more daring and attacked livestock inside traditional bomas relative to lions and leopards. Our study concludes that predator-proof bomas are more effective in minimizing livestock depredation and can be embraced as a sound intervention for human–carnivore co-existence in communities’ wildlife conservation areas.

Diet flexibility of wolves and black bears in the range of migratory caribou

The diet of predators can be highly variable, which is exemplified by their ability to acclimate to a wide range of ecological conditions. Such flexibility in foraging may be a key aspect of their performance in unpredictable environments such as at the edge of the range of a species or where food availability varies greatly in time and space. Gaining information on the diets of predators under such conditions could foster our comprehension of their ecological flexibility and the potential role of predation on the population dynamics of prey. We determined the diet of wolves (Canis lupus) and black bears (Ursus americanus) in northern Québec and Labrador (Canada) within the range of two migratory caribou (Rangifer tarandus) herds: the high-abundance Rivière-aux-Feuilles herd (RFH) and low-abundance Rivière-George herd (RGH). Worldwide, decline in caribou populations has become a concern, stressing the need to better understand the factors involved in these declines, including predation. In northern Québec (RFH range), caribou was the primary year-round prey of wolves while moose (Alces alces) and muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) were consumed in some sectors. The diet of wolves in northern Labrador (RGH range) varied seasonally, with caribou, moose, and fish as main prey during different periods throughout the year. Black bear diets varied seasonally and regionally. Among the foods we analyzed, caribou was the main source of animal protein for bears in northern Québec and northern Labrador, except during a high abundance of Ungava collared lemming (Dicrostonyx hudsonius). Only bears in northern Québec ate caribou during late summer/fall. Our results highlight the diet flexibility of wolves and black bears in northern food webs, and how their diets change in relation to the distribution and abundance of prey. Our results will help quantify the potential impact of these predators on prey populations in northern systems.

Lowering the rate of timber harvesting to mitigate impacts of climate change on boreal caribou habitat quality in eastern Canada

Many boreal populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) have declined in Canada, a trend essentially driven by the increasing footprint of anthropogenic disturbances and the resulting habitat-mediated apparent competition that increases predation pressure. However, the influence of climate change on these ecological processes remains poorly understood. We evaluated how climate change will affect boreal caribou habitat over the 2030-2100 horizon and in a 9.94 Mha study area, using a climate-sensitive simulation ensemble that integrates climate-induced changes in stand dynamics, fire regime, and different levels of commercial timber harvesting. We assessed the relative importance of these three drivers under projections made using different radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5). Habitat quality was estimated from resource selection functions built with telemetry data collected from 121 caribou between 2004 and 2011 in 7 local populations. At the beginning of our simulations, caribou habitat was already structured along a south-to-north increasing quality gradient. Simulations revealed changes in forest cover that are driven by climate-induced variations in fire regime and scenarios of harvesting levels, resulting in the loss of older coniferous forests and an increase in deciduous stands. These changes induced a generalized decrease in the average habitat quality and in the percentage of high-quality habitat for caribou, and in a northward recession of suitable habitat. Timber harvesting was the most important agent of change for the 2030-2050 horizon, although it was slowly replaced by changes in fire regime until 2100. Our results clearly showed that it is possible to maintain the current average habitat quality for caribou in future scenarios that consider a reduction in harvested volumes, the only lever under our control. This suggests that we still have the capacity to conciliate socioeconomic development and caribou conservation imperatives in the face of climate change, an important issue debated throughout the species distribution range.

Demographic responses of a threatened, low-density ungulate to annual variation in meteorological and phenological conditions

As global climate change progresses, wildlife management will benefit from knowledge of demographic responses to climatic variation, particularly for species already endangered by other stressors. In Canada, climate change is expected to increasingly impact populations of threatened woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) and much focus has been placed on how a warming climate has potentially facilitated the northward expansion of apparent competitors and novel predators. Climate change, however, may also exert more direct effects on caribou populations that are not mediated by predation. These effects include meteorological changes that influence resource availability and energy expenditure. Research on other ungulates suggests that climatic variation may have minimal impact on low-density populations such as woodland caribou because per-capita resources may remain sufficient even in “bad” years. We evaluated this prediction using demographic data from 21 populations in western Canada that were monitored for various intervals between 1994 and 2015. We specifically assessed whether juvenile recruitment and adult female survival were correlated with annual variation in meteorological metrics and plant phenology. Against expectations, we found that both vital rates appeared to be influenced by annual climatic variation. Juvenile recruitment was primarily correlated with variation in phenological conditions in the year prior to birth. Adult female survival was more strongly correlated with meteorological conditions and declined during colder, more variable winters. These responses may be influenced by the life history of woodland caribou, which reside in low-productivity refugia where small climatic changes may result in changes to resources that are sufficient to elicit strong demographic effects. Across all models, explained variation in vital rates was low, suggesting that other factors had greater influence on caribou demography. Nonetheless, given the declining trajectories of many woodland caribou populations, our results highlight the increased relevance of recovery actions when adverse climatic conditions are likely to negatively affect caribou demography.

Context-dependent group size: effects of population density, habitat, and season

Group size can vary in relation to population density, habitat, and season. Habitat and season may also interact with population density and affect group size through varying foraging benefits of social aggregation in different ecological contexts. We tested the hypothesis that group size varies across ecological contexts, including population density, habitat type, and season, for woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus) in ten herds over 25 years in Newfoundland, Canada. We predicted that group size would increase as a function of population density. Based on the foraging benefits of social aggregation, we predicted larger groups as habitat openness increased because open areas tend to have higher quality foraging resources. We predicted larger groups during winter when foraging resources are covered in snow because caribou and other social animals exploit social information about the location of foraging resources. In contrast to our prediction, group size decreased as a function of population density. In support of our prediction, group size was larger in winter than calving and summer, and we found that group size increased with habitat openness in some, but not all, cases. Patterns of animal grouping are context-dependent and the additive effect of different ecological contexts on variation in group size informs our understanding of the implicit trade-offs between competition, predation risk, and profitability of forage.

Coyote (Canis latrans) diet and spatial co-occurrence with woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou)

The interplay of predator encounters and antipredator responses is an integral part of understanding predator–prey interactions and spatial co-occurrence and avoidance can elucidate these interactions. We conducted hard-part dietary analysis of coyotes (Canis latrans Say, 1823) and space use of coyotes and woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou (Gmelin, 1788)) to test two competing hypotheses about coyote and caribou predator–prey spatial dynamics using resource selection functions. The high encounter hypothesis predicts that coyotes would maximize encounters with caribou via high spatial co-occurrence, whereas the predator stealth hypothesis predicts that through low spatial co-occurrence with caribou, coyotes act as stealth predators by avoiding habitats that caribou typically select. Our dietary analysis revealed that ∼46% of sampled coyote diet is composed of caribou. We found that coyote share space with caribou in lichen-barren habitat in both summer and winter and that coyotes co-occur with caribou in forested habitat during summer, but not during winter. Our findings support predictions associated with the high encounter predator hypothesis whereby coyotes and caribou have high spatial co-occurrence promoting caribou in coyote diet.

Temperature and Prey Species Richness Drive the Broad-Scale Distribution of a Generalist Predator

The ongoing climate change and the unprecedented rate of biodiversity loss render the need to accurately project future species distributional patterns more critical than ever. Mounting evidence suggests that not only abiotic factors, but also biotic interactions drive broad-scale distributional patterns. Here, we explored the effect of predator-prey interaction on the predator distribution, using as target species the widespread and generalist grass snake (Natrix natrix). We used ensemble Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) to build a model only with abiotic variables (abiotic model) and a biotic one including prey species richness. Then we projected the future grass snake distribution using a modest emission scenario assuming an unhindered and no dispersal scenario. The two models performed equally well, with temperature and prey species richness emerging as the top drivers of species distribution in the abiotic and biotic models, respectively. In the future, a severe range contraction is anticipated in the case of no dispersal, a likely possibility as reptiles are poor dispersers. If the species can disperse freely, an improbable scenario due to habitat loss and fragmentation, it will lose part of its contemporary distribution, but it will expand northwards.

Detecting Resource Limitation in a Large Herbivore Population Is Enhanced With Measures of Nutritional Condition

Resource limitation at the population level is a function of forage quality and its abundance relative to its per capita availability, which in turn, determines nutritional condition of individuals. Effects of resource limitation on population dynamics in ungulates often occur through predictable and sequential changes in vital rates, which can enable assessments of how resource limitation influences population growth. We tested theoretical predictions of bottom-up (i.e., resource limitation) forcing on moose (Alces alces) through the lens of vital rates by quantifying the relative influence of intrinsic measures of nutritional condition and extrinsic measures of remotely sensed environmental data on demographic rates. We measured rates of pregnancy, parturition, juvenile, and adult survival for 82 adult females in a population where predators largely were absent. Life stage simulation analyses (LSAs) indicated that interannual fluctuations in adult survival contributed to most of the variability in λ. We then extended the LSA to estimate vital rates as a function of bottom-up covariates to evaluate their influence on λ. We detected weak signatures of effects from environmental covariates that were remotely sensed and spatially explicit to each seasonal range. Instead, nutritional condition strongly influenced rates of pregnancy, parturition, and overwinter survival of adults, clearly implicating resource limitation on λ. Our findings depart from the classic life-history paradigm of population dynamics in ungulates in that adult survival was highly variable and generated most of the variability in population growth rates. At the surface, lack of variation explained by environmental covariates may suggest weak evidence of resource limitation in the population, when nutritional condition actually underpinned most demographics. We suggest that variability in vital rates and effects of resource limitation may depend on context more than previously appreciated, and density dependence can obfuscate the relationships between remotely sensed data and demographic rates.

Divergent estimates of herd-wide caribou calf survival: Ecological factors and methodological biases

Population monitoring is a critical part of effective wildlife management, but methods are prone to biases that can hinder our ability to accurately track changes in populations through time. Calf survival plays an important role in ungulate population dynamics and can be monitored using telemetry and herd composition surveys. These methods, however, are susceptible to unrepresentative sampling and violations of the assumption of equal detectability, respectively. Here, we capitalized on 55 herd-wide estimates of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) calf survival in Newfoundland, Canada, using telemetry (n = 1,175 calves) and 249 herd-wide estimates of calf:cow ratios (C:C) using herd composition surveys to investigate these potential biases. These data included 17 herd-wide estimates replicated from both methods concurrently (n = 448 calves and n = 17 surveys) which we used to understand which processes and sampling biases contributed to disagreement between estimates of herd-wide calf survival. We used Cox proportional hazards models to determine whether estimates of calf mortality risk were biased by the date a calf was collared. We also used linear mixed-effects models to determine whether estimates of C:C ratios were biased by survey date and herd size. We found that calves collared later in the calving season had a higher mortality risk and that C:C tended to be higher for surveys conducted later in the autumn. When we used these relationships to modify estimates of herd-wide calf survival derived from telemetry and herd composition surveys concurrently, we found that formerly disparate estimates of woodland caribou calf survival now overlapped (within a 95% confidence interval) in a majority of cases. Our case study highlights the potential of under-appreciated biases to impact our understanding of population dynamics and suggests ways that managers can limit the influence of these biases in the two widely applied methods for estimating herd-wide survival.

The Ecology of Individual Differences Empirically Applied to Space-Use and Movement Tactics

Movement provides a link between individual behavioral ecology and the spatial and temporal variation in an individual's landscape. Individual variation in movement traits is an important axis of animal personality, particularly in the context of foraging ecology. We tested whether individual caribou (Rangifer tarandus) displayed plasticity in movement and space-use behavior across a gradient of resource aggregation. We quantified first-passage time and range-use ratio as proxies for movement-related foraging behavior and examined how these traits varied at the individual level across a foraging resource gradient. Our results suggest that individuals adjusted first-passage time but not range-use ratio to maximize access to high-quality foraging resources. First-passage time was repeatable, and intercepts for first-passage time and range-use ratio were negatively correlated. Individuals matched first-passage time but not range-use ratio to the expectations of our patch-use model that maximized access to foraging resources, a result that suggests that individuals acclimated their movement patterns to accommodate both intra- and interannual variation in foraging resources on the landscape. Collectively, we highlight repeatable movement and space-use tactics and provide insight into how individual plasticity in movement interacts with landscape processes to affect the distribution of behavioral phenotypes and potentially fitness and population dynamics.

Habitat complexity mediates the predator-prey space race

The spatial relationship between predator and prey is often conceptualized as a behavioral response race, in which prey avoid predators while predators track prey. Limiting habitat types can create spatial anchors for prey or predators, influencing the likelihood that the predator or prey response will dominate. Joint spatial anchors emerge when predator and prey occupy similar feeding habitat domains and risk and reward become spatially conflated, confusing predictions of which player will win the space race. These spatial dynamics of risk-foraging trade-offs are often obscured by habitat heterogeneity and community complexity in large vertebrate systems, fueling ambiguity regarding the generality of predictions from predator-prey theory. To test how habitat distribution influences the predator-prey space race, we examine correlation in puma and vicuña habitat selection and space use at two sites, one of which generates a distinct risk-foraging trade-off at a joint spatial anchor. The distribution of vegetation, which serves as both forage for vicuñas and stalking cover for pumas, differs between the sites; the llano contains a single central meadow that acts as a joint spatial anchor, while the canyon is characterized by more heterogeneous vegetation. Puma-vicuña habitat selection correlation was positive in the llano and negative in the canyon, and similarly, utilization distributions were more strongly correlated in the llano than the canyon. Vicuña locations occurred at higher values of puma habitat selection and utilization in the llano than in the canyon. Similarly, puma locations in the llano occurred at higher values of vicuña habitat selection and utilization than in the canyon. Although pumas consistently selected for and utilized vegetative and topographic cover regardless of habitat distribution, vicuñas only selected against vegetation in the heterogeneous canyon site, reducing spatial correlation with pumas. Our work suggests a joint spatial anchor favors pumas in the space race due to the inability for vicuñas to avoid crucial foraging habitat. The outcome of the predator-prey space race appears to be strongly informed by the distribution of habitat, whereby corresponding predictability of predator and prey favors predators in the spatial game.

Space use and social association in a gregarious ungulate: Testing the conspecific attraction and resource dispersion hypotheses

Animals use a variety of proximate cues to assess habitat quality when resources vary spatiotemporally. Two nonmutually exclusive strategies to assess habitat quality involve either direct assessment of landscape features or observation of social cues from conspecifics as a form of information transfer about forage resources. The conspecific attraction hypothesis proposes that individual space use is dependent on the distribution of conspecifics rather than the location of resource patches, whereas the resource dispersion hypothesis proposes that individual space use and social association are driven by the abundance and distribution of resources. We tested the conspecific attraction and the resource dispersion hypotheses as two nonmutually exclusive hypotheses explaining social association and of adult female caribou (Rangifer tarandus). We used location data from GPS collars to estimate interannual site fidelity and networks representing home range overlap and social associations among individual caribou. We found that home range overlap and social associations were correlated with resource distribution in summer and conspecific attraction in winter. In summer, when resources were distributed relatively homogeneously, interannual site fidelity was high and home range overlap and social associations were low. Conversely, in winter when resources were distributed relatively heterogeneously, interannual site fidelity was low and home range overlap and social associations were high. As access to resources changes across seasons, caribou appear to alter social behavior and space use. In summer, caribou may use cues associated with the distribution of forage, and in winter caribou may use cues from conspecifics to access forage. Our results have broad implications for our understanding of caribou socioecology, suggesting that caribou use season-specific strategies to locate forage. Caribou populations continue to decline globally, and our finding that conspecific attraction is likely related to access to forage suggests that further fragmentation of caribou habitat could limit social association among caribou, particularly in winter when access to resources may be limited.

Weather, habitat composition, and female behavior interact to modify offspring survival in Greater Sage-Grouse

Weather is a source of environmental variation that can affect population vital rates. However, the influence of weather on individual fitness is spatially heterogeneous and can be driven by other environmental factors, such as habitat composition. Therefore, individuals can experience reduced fitness (e.g., decreased reproductive success) during poor environmental conditions through poor decisions regarding habitat selection. This requires, however, that habitat selection is adaptive and that the organism can correctly interpret the environmental cues to modify habitat use. Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are an obligate of the sagebrush ecosystems of western North America, relying on sagebrush for food and cover. Greater Sage-Grouse chicks, however, require foods with high nutrient content (i.e., forbs and insects), the abundance of which is both temporally and spatially dynamic and related primarily to water availability. Our goal was to assess whether nest site selection and movements of broods by females reduced the negative effect of drought on offspring survival. As predicted, chick survival was negatively influenced by drought severity. We found that sage-grouse females generally preferred to nest and raise their young in locations where their chicks would experience higher survival. We also found that use of habitats positively associated with chick survival were also positively associated with drought severity, which suggests that females reduced drought impacts on their dependent young by selecting more favorable environments during drought years. Although our findings suggest that female nest site selection and brood movement rates can reduce the negative effects of drought on early offspring survival, the influence of severe drought conditions was not completely mitigated by female behavior, and that drought conditions should be considered a threat to Greater Sage-Grouse population persistence.

Viability of cyclic populations

Theory on viability of small populations is well developed and has led to the standard methodology of population viability analysis (PVA) to assess vulnerability of single species. However, more complex situations involving community dynamics or environmental change violate theoretical assumptions. Synthesizing concepts from population, community, and conservation ecology, we develop a generic theory on the viability of cyclic populations. The interplay of periodic population decline and demography causes varying risk patterns that aggregate during cycles and modify the temporal structure of viability. This variability is visualized and quantitatively assessed. For two standard viability metrics that summarize immediate extinction risk and the general long-term conditions of populations, we mathematically describe the impact of population cycles. Finally, we suggest and demonstrate PVA for cyclic populations that respond to, e.g., seasonality, interannual variation, or trophic interactions. Our theoretical and methodological advancement opens a route to viability analysis in food webs and trophic meta-communities and equips biodiversity conservation with a long-missing tool.

Temporal variation in habitat use, co-occurrence, and risk among generalist predators and a shared prey

Generalist predators typically have broad diets, but their diets may become constrained when one species of prey becomes disproportionately available. Yet there is poor understanding regarding whether generalist predators exhibit stereotypic relationships with pulsed prey resources. We used telemetry data from 959 woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou (Gmelin, 1788); 146 adult females, 813 calves), 61 coyotes (Canis latrans Say, 1823), and 55 black bears (Ursus americanus Pallas, 1780) to investigate how two generalist predators interacted with caribou neonates on the island of Newfoundland. We examined the similarity of patterns of habitat use between caribou and their predators across time and related this similarity to interspecific spatiotemporal co-occurrence and mortality risk for caribou neonates. The similarity in habitat use between coyotes and caribou mirrored variation in juvenile hazard risk, but had weak association with actual co-occurrence with caribou. Bears and caribou exhibited less similarity in habitat use during the calving season than coyotes and caribou. The relationship between habitat use of bear and caribou did not correspond with either co-occurrence patterns or overall risk for caribou neonates. Our work illustrates how risk for a prey species can be shaped differently based upon differences between the behavioural strategies of generalist predator species.