Socially mediated effects of climate change decrease survival of hibernating Alpine marmots

Population density and vegetation resources influence demography in a hibernating herbivorous mammal

Demography of herbivorous mammal populations may be affected by changes in predation, population density, harvesting, and climate. Whereas numerous studies have focused on the effect of single environmental variables on individual demographic processes, attempts to integrate the consequences of several environmental variables on numerous functional traits and demographic rates are rare. Over a 32-year period, we examined how forage availability (vegetation assessed through NDVI) and population density affected the functional traits and demographic rates of a population of Columbian ground squirrels (Urocitellus columbianus), a herbivorous hibernating rodent. We focused on mean population phenology, body mass, breeding success, and survival. We found a negative effect of population density on demographic rates, including on breeding success and pup and adult survival to the next year. We found diverging effects of vegetation phenology on demographic rates: positive effects of a later start of the growing season on adult and yearling female survival, and juvenile survival, but no clear effect on male survival. Interestingly, neither population density nor vegetation affected population phenology or body condition in the following year. Vegetative growth rate had a positive influence on female mass gain (somatic investment) over a season, but both vegetative growth rate and biomass, surprisingly, had negative effects on the survival of young through their first hibernation. Thus, ground squirrels appeared to benefit more from later timing of vegetation than increases in vegetative biomass per se. Our study provides evidence for complex ecological effects of vegetation and population density on functional traits and demographic rates of small mammal populations.

Climate change is altering the physiology and phenology of an arctic hibernator

Climate warming is rapid in the Arctic, yet impacts to biological systems are unclear because few long-term studies linking biophysiological processes with environmental conditions exist for this data-poor region. In our study spanning 25 years in the Alaskan Arctic, we demonstrate that climate change is affecting the timing of freeze-thaw cycles in the active layer of permafrost soils and altering the physiology of arctic ground squirrels (Urocitellus parryii). Soil freeze has been delayed and, in response, arctic ground squirrels have delayed when they up-regulate heat production during torpor to prevent freezing. Further, the termination of hibernation in spring has advanced 4 days per decade in females but not males. Continued warming and phenological shifts will alter hibernation energetics, change the seasonal availability of this important prey species, and potentially disrupt intraspecific interactions.

Vertebrate Phenological Plasticity: from Molecular Mechanisms to Ecological and Evolutionary Implications

Seasonal variation in the availability of essential resources is one of the most important drivers of natural selection on the phasing and duration of annually recurring life-cycle events. Shifts in seasonal timing are among the most commonly reported responses to climate change and the capacity of organisms to adjust their timing, either through phenotypic plasticity or evolution, is a critical component of resilience. Despite growing interest in documenting and forecasting the impacts of climate change on phenology, our ability to predict how individuals, populations, and species might alter their seasonal timing in response to their changing environments is constrained by limited knowledge regarding the cues animals use to adjust timing, the endogenous genetic and molecular mechanisms that transduce cues into neural and endocrine signals, and the inherent capacity of animals to alter their timing and phasing within annual cycles. Further, the fitness consequences of phenological responses are often due to biotic interactions within and across trophic levels, rather than being simple outcomes of responses to changes in the abiotic environment. Here, we review the current state of knowledge regarding the mechanisms that control seasonal timing in vertebrates, as well as the ecological and evolutionary consequences of individual, population, and species-level variation in phenological responsiveness. Understanding the causes and consequences of climate-driven phenological shifts requires combining ecological, evolutionary, and mechanistic approaches at individual, populational, and community scales. Thus, to make progress in forecasting phenological responses and demographic consequences, we need to further develop interdisciplinary networks focused on climate change science.

Efficient spatial multi-state capture-recapture model to study natal dispersal: An application to the Alpine marmot

Studying natal dispersal in natural populations using capture-recapture data is challenging as an unknown proportion of individuals leaves the study area when dispersing and are never recaptured. Most dispersal (and survival) estimates from capture-recapture studies are thus biased and only reflect what happens within the study area, not the population. Here, we elaborate on recent methodological advances to build a spatially explicit multi-state capture-recapture model to study natal dispersal in a territorial mammal while accounting for imperfect detection and movement in and out of the study area. We validate our model using a simulation study where we compare it to a non-spatial multi-state capture-recapture model. We then apply it to a long-term individual-based dataset on Alpine marmot Marmota marmota. Our model was able to accurately estimate natal dispersal and survival probabilities, as well as mean dispersal distance for a large range of dispersal patterns. By contrast, the non-spatial multi-state estimates underestimated both survival and natal dispersal even for short dispersal distances relative to the study area size. We discuss the application of our approach to other species and monitoring setups. We estimated higher inheritance probabilities of female Alpine marmots, which suggests higher levels of philopatry, although the probability to become dominant after dispersal did not differ between sexes. Nonetheless, the lower survival of young adult males suggests higher costs of dispersal for males. We further discuss the implications of our findings in light of the life history of the species.

The thermal environment as a moderator of social evolution

Animal sociality plays a crucial organisational role in evolution. As a result, understanding the factors that promote the emergence, maintenance, and diversification of animal societies is of great interest to biologists. Climate is among the foremost ecological factors implicated in evolutionary transitions in social organisation, but we are only beginning to unravel the possible mechanisms and specific climatic variables that underlie these associations. Ambient temperature is a key abiotic factor shaping the spatio-temporal distribution of individuals and has a particularly strong influence on behaviour. Whether such effects play a broader role in social evolution remains to be seen. In this review, we develop a conceptual framework for understanding how thermal effects integrate into pathways that mediate the opportunities, nature, and context of social interactions. We then implement this framework to discuss the capacity for temperature to initiate organisational changes across three broad categories of social evolution: group formation, group maintenance, and group elaboration. For each category, we focus on pivotal traits likely to have underpinned key social transitions and explore the potential for temperature to affect changes in these traits by leveraging empirical examples from the literature on thermal and behavioural ecology. Finally, we discuss research directions that should be prioritised to understand the potentially constructive and/or destructive effects of future warming on the origins, maintenance, and diversification of animal societies.

Hibernation behavior of a federally threatened ground squirrel: climate change and habitat selection implications

Hibernation is an adaptation to survive periods of stress, from food limitation or harsh thermal conditions. A key question in contemporary ecology is whether rare, range-restricted species can change their behavior in response to climate change (i.e., through behavioral plasticity). The northern Idaho ground squirrel, Urocitellus brunneus (A. H. Howell, 1928), is a federally threatened species that hibernates for approximately 8 months per year within the bounds of its small range in central Idaho, USA. Changes in temperature, snow accumulation, and summer precipitation, all brought about as a result of climate change, may reduce survival or fecundity of northern Idaho ground squirrels if they cannot adapt to these climate changes. Hibernating species can respond to climate-change-induced thermal challenges in two ways: change their hibernation physiology and behavior (i.e., emergence date or number of torpor bouts) or alter their environment (i.e., change hibernacula depth or location). We explored a suite of intrinsic and extrinsic factors to document the extent to which they influenced hibernation behavior of northern Idaho ground squirrels. Emergence date was positively associated with snowpack and negatively associated with mean winter temperature. Mean minimum skin temperature was negatively associated with canopy closure and slope of a squirrel’s hibernaculum. Duration of the heterothermal period, number of euthermic bouts, and total time spent euthermic were positively associated with body mass. Immergence date and duration of the longest torpor bout were negatively associated with body mass. Warmer temperatures and less snow accumulation in the winter—caused by climate change—likely will cause altered emergence dates. Our results suggest that any future climate-induced changes in snowfall, ambient temperature, food availability, or habitat likely will impact survival of this rare ground squirrel, because such changes will cause changes in hibernation behavior, percent mass loss during hibernation, and duration of the active season when small mammals are more susceptible to predation.

Freezing in a warming climate: Marked declines of a subnivean hibernator after a snow drought

Recent snow droughts associated with unusually warm winters are predicted to increase in frequency and affect species dependent upon snowpack for winter survival. Changes in populations of some cold-adapted species have been attributed to heat stress or indirect effects on habitat from unusually warm summers, but little is known about the importance of winter weather to population dynamics and how responses to snow drought vary among sympatric species. We evaluated changes in abundance of hoary marmots (Marmota caligata) over a period that included a year of record-low snowpack to identify mechanisms associated with weather and snowpack. To consider interspecies comparisons, our analysis used the same a priori model set as a concurrent study that evaluated responses of American pikas (Ochotona princeps) to weather and snowpack in the same study area of North Cascades National Park, Washington, USA. We hypothesized that marmot abundance reflected mechanisms related to heat stress, cold stress, cold exposure without an insulating snowpack, snowpack duration, atmospheric moisture, growing-season precipitation, or select combinations of these mechanisms. Changes in marmot abundances included a 74% decline from 2007 to 2016 and were best explained by an interaction of chronic dryness with exposure to acute cold without snowpack in winter. Physiological stress during hibernation from exposure to cold, dry air appeared to be the most likely mechanism of change in marmot abundance. Alternative mechanisms associated with changes to winter weather, including early emergence from hibernation or altered vegetation dynamics, had less support. A post hoc assessment of vegetative phenology and productivity did not support vegetation dynamics as a primary driver of marmot abundance across years. Although marmot and pika abundances were explained by strikingly similar models over periods of many years, details of the mechanisms involved likely differ between species because pika abundances increased in areas where marmots declined. Such differences may lead to diverging geographic distributions of these species as global change continues.

Influences of climatic and social environment on variable maternal allocation among offspring in Alpine marmots

In an environment with limited resources, parents may trade-off the number of offspring produced against offspring mass. To maximize fitness under unpredictable environments, females must not only maximize mean annual reproductive success but also minimize between-year variation in reproductive success. Thus, preferred strategies of maternal allocation might be to maximize the mass of their offspring or to produce a number of offspring of variable body masses. Many social species have evolved in variable and unpredictable environments where only the social environment can be predicted. If mothers seem to alter their total reproductive allocation to offspring depending on their social environment, how the total expenditure is allocated between the different offspring is still unknown. Here, we analysed how climatic and social environments influence strategies of maternal allocation and how these strategies impact pup first-year survival in a wild population of Alpine marmots monitored between 1990 and 2016. We found that females acted as income breeders using resources immediately available for reproduction. Our results showed that the proportion of maternal mass allocated to offspring varied mainly with litter size. However, how maternal allocation is shared between pups depended on climatic and social environments. In general, mothers tended to have litters of greater average mass and small variability in favourable social environments or when resources are abundant and lighter average pup mass but high variability in unfavourable social environments or when resources are scarce. This variable allocation could correspond to dynamic bet-hedging such that mothers influence the variance of pup mass within the litter in response to poor current environmental conditions. Our analysis of first-year survival showed that females should maximize the body mass of their young whatever the conditions will be because pups of higher mass have higher survival, regardless of environmental conditions. When resources are scarce, this strategy might not be achievable for all pups so that mothers produced variable pups. In large litters, this strategy increased first-year survival. Because pup variability affects parental fitness, differential allocation between pups of the same litter could have large consequences on fitness and thus on reproductive strategies of social species.

Contrasting effects of climate change on seasonal survival of a hibernating mammal

Seasonal environmental conditions shape the behavior and life history of virtually all organisms. Climate change is modifying these seasonal environmental conditions, which threatens to disrupt population dynamics. It is conceivable that climatic changes may be beneficial in one season but result in detrimental conditions in another because life-history strategies vary between these time periods. We analyzed the temporal trends in seasonal survival of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) and explored the environmental drivers using a 40-y dataset from the Colorado Rocky Mountains (USA). Trends in survival revealed divergent seasonal patterns, which were similar across age-classes. Marmot survival declined during winter but generally increased during summer. Interestingly, different environmental factors appeared to drive survival trends across age-classes. Winter survival was largely driven by conditions during the preceding summer and the effect of continued climate change was likely to be mainly negative, whereas the likely outcome of continued climate change on summer survival was generally positive. This study illustrates that seasonal demographic responses need disentangling to accurately forecast the impacts of climate change on animal population dynamics.

Assessing the risks to United States and Canadian mammals caused by climate change using a trait-mediated model

A set of 182 populations of 76 mammal species in the United States and Canada, examined in natural conditions with minimized disturbances or management effects, shows that responses to climate change include negative responses, such as elevational range contractions, upward shifts and decreases in abundance, positive responses, such as range expansions, and no detectable responses. Responses vary among and within mammal species but many are correlated with species traits, particularly the responses linked to high extinction risks (= climate change risk: decreases in population sizes, range contractions, local extirpations). The traits showing the strongest links to differential responses to climate change are 1) body size—large mammals respond more often and most negatively to climate change, 2) activity times—few mammals with flexible active times respond to climate change, and 3) spatial distribution—high-latitude and high-elevation mammals responded more often to climate change. Using these traits and two approaches to trait weighting, I modeled the relative climate change risk for all 328 terrestrial, nonvolant mammal species in the United States and Canada across 10 levels of risk (low = 1–2, moderate = 3–4, moderate-high = 5–6, high = 7–8, very high = 9–10). The models predicted that 15% of these mammalian species are in the high- and very high-risk categories, including species from most orders. Many mammal populations and species listed as of conservation concern due to other human impacts by national or international agencies are also predicted by my models to be in the higher categories of climate change risk. My intention for these models is to clarify for managers and researchers which, where, and how mammals are responding to climate change relatively independent of other anthropogenic stressors (e.g., large-scale habitat change, overhunting) and to provide a preliminary assessment of species most in need of careful monitoring for climate change impacts.

Warm temperatures during cold season can negatively affect adult survival in an alpine bird

Climate seasonality is a predominant constraint on the lifecycles of species in alpine and polar biomes. Assessing the response of these species to climate change thus requires taking into account seasonal constraints on populations. However, interactions between seasonality, weather fluctuations, and population parameters remain poorly explored as they require long-term studies with high sampling frequency. This study investigated the influence of environmental covariates on the demography of a corvid species, the alpine chough Pyrrhocorax graculus, in the highly seasonal environment of the Mont Blanc region. In two steps, we estimated: (1) the seasonal survival of categories of individuals based on their age, sex, etc., (2) the effect of environmental covariates on seasonal survival. We hypothesized that the cold season-and more specifically, the end of the cold season (spring)-would be a critical period for individuals, and we expected that weather and individual covariates would influence survival variation during critical periods. We found that while spring was a critical season for adult female survival, it was not for males. This is likely because females are dominated by males at feeding sites during snowy seasons (winter and spring), and additionally must invest energy in egg production. When conditions were not favorable, which seemed to happen when the cold season was warmer than usual, females probably reached their physiological limits. Surprisingly, adult survival was higher at the beginning of the cold season than in summer, which may result from adaptation to harsh weather in alpine and polar vertebrates. This hypothesis could be confirmed by testing it with larger sets of populations. This first seasonal analysis of individual survival over the full life cycle in a sedentary alpine bird shows that including seasonality in demographic investigations is crucial to better understand the potential impacts of climate change on cold ecosystems.

Seasonal climate effects on the survival of a hibernating mammal

Global climate change and associated regional climate variability is impacting the phenology of many species, ultimately altering individual fitness and population dynamics. Yet, few studies have considered the effects of pertinent seasonal climate variability on phenology and fitness. Hibernators may be particularly susceptible to changes in seasonal climate since they have a relatively short active season in which to reproduce and gain enough mass to survive the following winter. To understand whether and how seasonal climate variability may be affecting hibernator fitness, we estimated survival from historical (1964-1968) and contemporary (2014-2017) mark-recapture data collected from the same population of Uinta ground squirrels (UGS, Urocitellus armatus), a hibernator endemic to the western United States. Despite a locally warming climate, the phenology of UGS did not change over time, yet season-specific climate variables were important in regulating survival rates. Specifically, older age classes experienced lower survival when winters or the following springs were warm, while juveniles benefited from warmer winter temperatures. Although metabolic costs decrease with decreasing temperature in the hibernacula, arousal costs increase with decreasing temperature. Our results suggest that this trade-off is experienced differently by immature and mature individuals. We also observed an increase in population density during that time period, suggesting resources are less limited today than they used to be. Cheatgrass is now dominating the study site and may provide a better food source to UGS than native plants did historically.

Extrinsic and intrinsic constraints interact to drive extra-pair paternities in the Alpine marmot

To reproduce, animals have to form pairs and large variations in the degree of mate switching are observed. Extrinsic and intrinsic factors can constrain individual's mate switching. Among intrinsic factors, genes involved in pair-bonding, such as Avpr-1a, receive increasing attention. The length of microsatellites present in the regulatory region of Avpr-1a determines the neural densities and distributions of the vasopressin receptors known to impact pair-bonding behaviours. For the first time, we investigated whether and how the genetic makeup at Avpr-1a, an intrinsic factor, and the social context, an extrinsic factor, experienced by wild Alpine marmot (Marmota marmota) females affect the proportion of extra-pair young. This proportion was positively correlated with the length of their Avpr-1a regulatory region but only when the social constraints were relaxed, that is when mature male subordinates were present. When ignoring the interactive effect between the length of their Avpr-1a regulatory region and the social constraints, the genetic makeup at Avpr-1a was not associated with the proportion of extra-pair young. Under natural conditions, the genetic regulation of pair-bonding could be hidden by extrinsic factors constraining mate choice.

The broad footprint of climate change from genes to biomes to people

Most ecological processes now show responses to anthropogenic climate change. In terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems, species are changing genetically, physiologically, morphologically, and phenologically and are shifting their distributions, which affects food webs and results in new interactions. Disruptions scale from the gene to the ecosystem and have documented consequences for people, including unpredictable fisheries and crop yields, loss of genetic diversity in wild crop varieties, and increasing impacts of pests and diseases. In addition to the more easily observed changes, such as shifts in flowering phenology, we argue that many hidden dynamics, such as genetic changes, are also taking place. Understanding shifts in ecological processes can guide human adaptation strategies. In addition to reducing greenhouse gases, climate action and policy must therefore focus equally on strategies that safeguard biodiversity and ecosystems.

Faithful or not: direct and indirect effects of climate on extra-pair paternities in a population of Alpine marmots

Despite being identified an area that is poorly understood regarding the effects of climate change, behavioural responses to climatic variability are seldom explored. Climatic variability is likely to cause large inter-annual variation in the frequency of extra-pair litters produced, a widespread alternative mating tactic to help prevent, correct or minimize the negative consequences of sub-optimal mate choice. In this study, we investigated how climatic variability affects the inter-annual variation in the proportion of extra-pair litters in a wild population of Alpine marmots. During 22 years of monitoring, the annual proportion of extra-pair litters directly increased with the onset of earlier springs and indirectly with increased snow in winters. Snowier winters resulted in a higher proportion of families with sexually mature male subordinates and thus, created a social context within which extra-pair paternity was favoured. Earlier spring snowmelt could create this pattern by relaxing energetic, movement and time constraints. Further, deeper snow in winter could also contribute by increasing litter size and juvenile survival. Optimal mate choice is particularly relevant to generate adaptive genetic diversity. Understanding the influence of environmental conditions and the capacity of the individuals to cope with them is crucial within the context of rapid climate change.

Differential plasticity of size and mass to environmental change in a hibernating mammal

Morphological changes following changes in species' distribution and phenology have been suggested to be the third universal response to global environmental change. Although structural size and body mass result from different genetic, physiological, and ecological mechanisms, they are used interchangeably in studies evaluating population responses to environmental change. Using a 22-year (1991-2013) dataset including 1768 individuals, we investigated the coupled dynamics of size and mass in a hibernating mammal, the Alpine marmot (Marmota marmota), in response to local environmental conditions. We (i) quantified temporal trends in both traits, (ii) determined the environmental drivers of trait dynamics, and (iii) identified the life-history processes underlying the observed changes. Both phenotypic traits were followed through life: we focused on the initial trait value (juvenile size and mass) and later-life development (annual change in size [Δsize] and mass [Δmass]). First, we demonstrated contrasting dynamics between size and mass over the study period. Juvenile size and subsequent Δsize showed significant declines, whereas juvenile mass and subsequent Δmass remained constant. As a consequence of smaller size associated with a similar mass, individuals were in better condition in recent years. Second, size and mass showed different sensitivities to environmental variables. Both traits benefited from early access to resources in spring, whereas Δmass, particularly in early life, also responded to summer and winter conditions. Third, the interannual variation in both traits was caused by changes in early life development. Our study supports the importance of considering the differences between size and mass responses to the environment when evaluating the mechanisms underlying population dynamics. The current practice of focusing on only one trait in population modeling can lead to misleading conclusions when evaluating species' resilience to contemporary climate change.