Earlier nesting by generalist predatory bird is associated with human responses to climate change

Age- and trait-dependent breeding responses to environmental variation in a short-lived songbird

Breeding responses of organisms to environmental changes may profoundly depend on an individual's age, as an age-environment interaction may be expected to affect the expression of reproductive traits. However, little is known about how this interaction affects short-lived species that experience various environmental conditions in adulthood. Here, we used a 32-year dataset from the collared flycatcher, Ficedula albicollis, population to test whether and how the environment interacts with age to shape female age-specific reproduction. To characterise environmental variation, we applied the remotely sensed normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), estimating vegetation productivity, and used it as a surrogate for habitat quality. Then, we analysed how within-individual age and NDVI determine patterns in laying date, clutch size, offspring production, and recruitment. We found that young and old females, but not middle-aged females, breeding under low NDVI started to lay eggs later and produced smaller clutches than females of the same age breeding under higher NDVI. No such effects were observed for offspring production or recruitment. Our study provides evidence that both an individual's age and the environmental variation experienced during adulthood may be crucial for shaping reproductive patterns in short-lived avian species, as has been found in long-lived birds.

Seasonal trends in adult apparent survival and reproductive trade-offs reveal potential constraints to earlier nesting in a migratory bird

Birds aim to optimize resources for feeding young and self-maintenance by timing reproduction to coincide with peak food availability. When reproduction is mistimed, birds could incur costs that affect their survival. We studied whether nesting phenology correlated with the apparent survival of American kestrels (Falco sparverius) from two distinct populations and examined trends in clutch-initiation dates. We estimated apparent survival using multi-state mark-recapture models with nesting timing, nesting success, sex, age, and weather covariates. Nesting timing predicted the apparent survival of successful adults; however, the effect differed between populations. Early nesting kestrels had higher apparent survival than later nesters in the western population, where kestrels have a relatively long nesting season. At the eastern site, where kestrels have a relatively short nesting season, the pattern was reversed-later nesters had higher apparent survival than earlier nesters. Nesting timing did not affect the apparent survival of adults with failed nests suggesting that the energetic cost of producing fledglings contributed to the timing effect. Finally, clutch-initiation dates advanced in the western population and remained static in the eastern population. Given that both populations have seasonal declines in productivity, population-specific survival patterns provide insight into seasonal trade-offs. Specifically, nesting timing effects on survival paralleled productivity declines in the western population and inverse patterns of survival and reproduction in the eastern population suggest a condition-dependent trade-off. Concomitant seasonal declines in reproduction and survival may facilitate population-level responses to earlier springs, whereas seasonal trade-offs may constrain phenology shifts and increase vulnerability to mismatch.

Weather and agricultural intensification determine the breeding performance of a small generalist predator

Land-use changes due to agricultural intensification and climatic factors can affect avian reproduction. We use a top predator of agroecosystems, the American kestrel (Falco sparverius) breeding in nest boxes in Central Argentina as a study subject to identify if these two drivers interact to affect birds breeding. We analyzed their breeding performance across a gradient of agricultural intensification from native forest, traditional farmland to intensive farmland. The surface devoted to soybean was used as a proxy of agriculture intensification; however, it did not affect the breeding performance of American kestrels. Even though the presence of pastures was important to determine the probability of breeding successfully. Climatic variables had strong effects on the species breeding timing, on the number of nestlings raised by breeding pairs and on the probability of those pairs to breed successfully (raising at least one fledgling). Our results highlight the relevance of pastures and grasslands for American kestrel reproduction. These environments are the most affected by land-use change to intensive agriculture, being transformed into fully agricultural lands mostly devoted to soybean production. Therefore, future expansion of intensive agriculture may negatively affect the average reproductive parameters of American Kestrels, at least at a regional scale. Further research will be needed to disentangle the mechanisms by which weather variables affect kestrel breeding parameters.

Using satellite-derived estimates of plant phenological rhythms to predict sage-grouse nesting chronology

The "green wave" hypothesis posits that during spring consumers track spatial gradients in emergent vegetation and associated foraging opportunities. This idea has largely been invoked to explain animal migration patterns, yet the general phenomenon underlies trends in vertebrate reproductive chronology as well. We evaluated the utility of this hypothesis for predicting spatial variation in nest initiation of greater sage-grouse (Centrocerus urophasianus), a species of conservation concern in western North America. We used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to map the green wave across elevation and then compiled dates and locations of >450 sage-grouse nests from 20 study sites (2000-2014) to model nest initiation as a function of the start of the growing season (SOS), defined here as the maximum daily rate of increase in NDVI. Individual sites were drawn from three ecoregions, distributed over 4.5° latitude, and spanning 2,300 m in elevation, which captured the climatic, edaphic, and floristic diversity of sagebrush ecosystems in the southern half of current sage-grouse range. As predicted, SOS displayed a significant, positive relationship with elevation, occurring 1.3 days later for each 100 m increase in elevation. In turn, sage-grouse nest initiation followed SOS by 22 ± 10 days (r2  = .57), with hatch dates falling on or just prior to the peak of the growing season. By timing nesting to the green wave, sage-grouse chicks hatched when the abundance of protein-rich invertebrate biomass is hypothesized to be nearing a seasonal high. This adaptation likely represents a strategy for maximizing reproductive success in the arid, variable environments that define sagebrush ecosystems. Given projected changes in climate and land use, these results can be used to predict periods of relative sensitivity to habitat disturbance for sage-grouse. Moreover, the near real-time availability of satellite imagery offers a heretofore underutilized means of mapping the green wave, planning habitat restoration, and monitoring range conditions.

Arthropod biomass increase in spring correlates with NDVI in grassland habitat

Data from remote sensing are often used as proxies to quantify biological processes, especially at large geographical scales. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is the most frequently used proxy for primary productivity. Assuming a direct, positive interrelation between primary and secondary production in terrestrial habitats, NDVI is often used to predict food availability for higher trophic levels. However, the relationship between NDVI and arthropod biomass has rarely been tested. In this study, we analyzed extensive datasets of arthropod communities from semi-natural grasslands in central Europe to test the relationship between arthropod biomass of consumer trophic levels ("herbivores," "mixed," and "carnivores") in grassland communities and NDVI during the spring season. We found that arthropod biomass generally increased with NDVI. The same positive relationship between biomass and NDVI was observed for each individual trophic level. Cross-correlation analyses did not show statistically significant lags between the NDVI and biomass of herbivores and carnivores. All in all, our study provides correlational evidence for the positive relation of primary and secondary productivity in temperate terrestrial habitats during spring. Moreover, it supports the applicability of NDVI data as a suitable habitat-specific proxy for the food availability of insectivores during spring.

Home range size and resource use by swift foxes in northeastern Montana

Swift foxes (Vulpes velox) are endemic to the Great Plains of North America, but were extirpated from the northern portion of their range by the mid-1900s. Despite several reintroductions to the Northern Great Plains, there remains a ~350 km range gap between the swift fox population along the Montana and Canada border and that in northeastern Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota. A better understanding of what resources swift foxes use along the Montana and Canada border region will assist managers to facilitate connectivity among populations. From 2016 to 2018, we estimated the home range size and evaluated resource use within the home ranges of 22 swift foxes equipped with Global Positioning System tracking collars in northeastern Montana. Swift fox home ranges in our study were some of the largest ever recorded, averaging (± SE) 42.0 km² ± 4.7. Our results indicate that both environmental and anthropogenic factors influenced resource use. At the population level, resource use increased by 3.3% for every 5.0% increase in percent grasslands. Relative probability of use decreased by 7.9% and 7.4% for every kilometer away from unpaved roads and gas well sites, respectively, and decreased by 3.0% and 11.3% for every one-unit increase in topographic roughness and every 0.05 increase in normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), respectively. Our study suggests that, to reestablish connectivity among swift fox populations in Montana, managers should aim to maintain large corridors of contiguous grasslands at a landscape scale, a process that likely will require having to work with multiple property owners.

Extreme events are more likely to affect the breeding success of lesser kestrels than average climate change

Climate change is predicted to severely impact interactions between prey, predators and habitats. In Southern Europe, within the Mediterranean climate, herbaceous vegetation achieves its maximum growth in middle spring followed by a three-month dry summer, limiting prey availability for insectivorous birds. Lesser kestrels (Falco naumanni) breed in a time-window that matches the nestling-rearing period with the peak abundance of grasshoppers and forecasted climate change may impact reproductive success through changes in prey availability and abundance. We used Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a surrogate of habitat quality and prey availability to investigate the impacts of forecasted climate change and extreme climatic events on lesser kestrel breeding performance. First, using 14 years of data from 15 colonies in Southwestern Iberia, we linked fledging success and climatic variables with NDVI, and secondly, based on these relationships and according to climatic scenarios for 2050 and 2070, forecasted NDVI and fledging success. Finally, we evaluated how fledging success was influenced by drought events since 2004. Despite predicting a decrease in vegetation greenness in lesser kestrel foraging areas during spring, we found no impacts of predicted gradual rise in temperature and decline in precipitation on their fledging success. Notwithstanding, we found a decrease of 12% in offspring survival associated with drought events, suggesting that a higher frequency of droughts might, in the future, jeopardize the recent recovery of the European population. Here, we show that extreme events, such as droughts, can have more significant impacts on species than gradual climatic changes, especially in regions like the Mediterranean Basin, a biodiversity and climate change hotspot.

Warming springs and habitat alteration interact to impact timing of breeding and population dynamics in a migratory bird

In seasonal environments, increasing spring temperatures lead many taxa to advance the timing of reproduction. Species that do not may suffer lower fitness. We investigated why black-tailed godwits (Limosa limosa limosa), a ground-breeding agricultural grassland shorebird, have not advanced timing of reproduction during the last three decades in the face of climate change and human-induced habitat degradation. We used data from an 11-year field study to parameterize an Integral Projection Model to predict how spring temperature and habitat quality simultaneously influence the timing of reproduction and population dynamics. We found apparent selection for earlier laying, but not a correlation between the laying dates of parents and their offspring. Nevertheless, in warmer springs, laying dates of adults show a stronger positive correlation with laying date in previous springs than in cooler ones, and this leads us to predict a slight advance in the timing of reproduction if spring temperatures continue to increase. We also show that only in landscapes with low agricultural activity, the population can continue to act as a source. This study shows how climate change and declining habitat quality may enhance extinction risk.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation-driven rainfall pulse amplifies predation by owls on seabirds via apparent competition with mice

Most approaches for assessing species vulnerability to climate change have focused on direct impacts via abiotic changes rather than indirect impacts mediated by changes in species interactions. Changes in rainfall regimes may influence species interactions from the bottom-up by increasing primary productivity in arid environments, but subsequently lead to less predictable top-down effects. Our study demonstrates how the effects of an EL Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven rainfall pulse ricochets along a chain of interactions between marine and terrestrial food webs, leading to enhanced predation of a vulnerable marine predator on its island breeding grounds. On Santa Barbara Island, barn owls (Tyto alba) are the main predator of a nocturnal seabird, the Scripps's murrelet (Synthliboramphus scrippsi), as well as an endemic deer mouse. We followed the links between rainfall, normalized difference vegetation index and subsequent peaks in mouse and owl abundance. After the mouse population declined steeply, there was approximately 15-fold increase in the number of murrelets killed by owls. We also simulated these dynamics with a mathematical model and demonstrate that bottom-up resource pulses can lead to subsequent declines in alternative prey. Our study highlights the need for understanding how species interactions will change with shifting rainfall patterns through the effects of ENSO under global change.