Spatial synchrony in sub-arctic geometrid moth outbreaks reflects dispersal in larval and adult life cycle stages

Population synchrony indicates functional connectivity in a threatened sedentary butterfly

Dispersal is a key influence on species' persistence, particularly in the context of habitat fragmentation and environmental change. Previously, residual population synchrony has been demonstrated to be an effective proxy for dispersal in mobile butterflies (Powney et al. 2012). Here, we highlight the utility and limitations of population synchrony as an indicator of functional connectivity and persistence, at a range of spatial scales, in a specialist, sedentary butterfly. While at the local scale, population synchrony is likely indicative of dispersal in the pearl-bordered fritillary, Boloria euphrosyne, over larger scales, habitat is likely to influence population dynamics. Although declines in local-scale synchrony conformed to typical movement in this species, synchrony showed no significant trend with distance when studied at larger (between-site) scales. By focusing on specific site comparisons, we draw the conclusion that heterogeneity in habitat successional stage drives asynchrony between sites at larger distances and is, therefore, likely to be a more important driver of population dynamics over large distances than dispersal. Within-site assessments of synchrony highlight differences in dispersal based on habitat type, with movement shown to be most inhibited between transect sections with contrasting habitat permeability. While synchrony has implications for metapopulation stability and extinction risk, no significant difference was found in average site synchrony between sites that had gone extinct during the study period and those remaining occupied. We demonstrate that population synchrony may be used to assess local-scale movement between sedentary populations, as well as to understand barriers to dispersal and guide conservation management.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of forest geometrid outbreaks

We highlight recent developments and avenues for advancement, which can improve insight into the causes of changes in the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest Geometridea moth species (hereafter 'geometrids'). Some forest geometrids possess fundamental biological traits, which make them particularly liable to outbreak range expansions and host shifts mitigated by climate change. Indeed, recently observed changes in geometrid spatiotemporal dynamics represent both new research opportunities and challenges for empirically testing drivers of intra- and interspecific spatial synchrony, including the role of trophic interactions and biological traits (e.g. dispersal ability). We advocate that the emerging field of near-term ecological forecasting holds promise for studies of the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest geometrids and could be tailored to give both accurate predictions at management-relevant timescales and new insights into the mechanisms that underlie spatiotemporal population dynamics.

Advances in understanding the drivers of population spatial synchrony

The causes of spatial synchrony in population dynamics are often elusive. We review how recent advances have enhanced understanding of the causes of the spatial synchrony of insect populations and revealed previously underappreciated complexities in patterns of synchrony. We highlight how regional-scale studies of population genetic structure have helped elucidate the role of dispersal in population synchronization and how novel data-analytic approaches have revealed variation in spatial synchrony across timescales and geographies and the underlying drivers. We also stress the limited current understanding of the impacts of climate change on the spatial synchrony of insect populations and the potential ramifications of these effects for pest management as well as species conservation.

From pattern to process? Dual travelling waves, with contrasting propagation speeds, best describe a self-organised spatio-temporal pattern in population growth of a cyclic rodent

The dynamics of cyclic populations distributed in space result from the relative strength of synchronising influences and the limited dispersal of destabilising factors (activators and inhibitors), known to cause multi‐annual population cycles. However, while each of these have been well studied in isolation, there is limited empirical evidence of how the processes of synchronisation and activation–inhibition act together, largely owing to the scarcity of datasets with sufficient spatial and temporal scale and resolution. We assessed a variety of models that could be underlying the spatio‐temporal pattern, designed to capture both theoretical and empirical understandings of travelling waves using large‐scale (>35,000 km²), multi‐year (2011–2017) field monitoring data on abundances of common vole (Microtus arvalis), a cyclic agricultural rodent pest. We found most support for a pattern formed from the summation of two radial travelling waves with contrasting speeds that together describe population growth rates across the region.

Hilltopping influences spatial dynamics in a patchy population of tiger moths

Dispersal is a key driver of spatial population dynamics. Dispersal behaviour may be shaped by many factors, such as mate-finding, the spatial distribution of resources, or wind and currents, yet most models of spatial dynamics assume random dispersal. We examined the spatial dynamics of a day-flying moth species (Arctia virginalis) that forms mating aggregations on hilltops (hilltopping) based on long-term adult and larval population censuses. Using time-series models, we compared spatial population dynamics resulting from empirically founded hilltop-based connectivity indices and modelled the interactive effects of temperature, precipitation and density dependence. Model comparisons supported hilltop-based connectivity metrics including hilltop elevation over random connectivity, suggesting an effect of hilltopping behaviour on dynamics. We also found strong interactive effects of temperature and precipitation on dynamics. Simulations based on fitted time-series models showed lower patch occupancy and regional synchrony, and higher colonization and extinction rates when hilltopping was included, with potential implications for the probability of persistence of the patch network. Overall, our results show the potential for dispersal behaviour to have important effects on spatial population dynamics and persistence, and we advocate the inclusion of such non-random dispersal in metapopulation models.

The geography of metapopulation synchrony in dendritic river networks

Dendritic habitats, such as river ecosystems, promote the persistence of species by favouring spatial asynchronous dynamics among branches. Yet, our understanding of how network topology influences metapopulation synchrony in these ecosystems remains limited. Here, we introduce the concept of fluvial synchrogram to formulate and test expectations regarding the geography of metapopulation synchrony across watersheds. By combining theoretical simulations and an extensive fish population time‐series dataset across Europe, we provide evidence that fish metapopulations can be buffered against synchronous dynamics as a direct consequence of network connectivity and branching complexity. Synchrony was higher between populations connected by direct water flow and decayed faster with distance over the Euclidean than the watercourse dimension. Likewise, synchrony decayed faster with distance in headwater than mainstem populations of the same basin. As network topology and flow directionality generate fundamental spatial patterns of synchrony in fish metapopulations, empirical synchrograms can aid knowledge advancement and inform conservation strategies in complex habitats.

Variation in synchrony of production among species, sites, and intertidal zones in coastal marshes

Spatially synchronous population dynamics are important to ecosystem functioning and have several potential causes. By looking at synchrony in plant productivity over 18 yr across two elevations in three types of coastal marsh habitat dominated by different clonal plant species in Georgia, USA, we were able to explore the importance of plant species and different habitat conditions to synchrony. Synchrony was highest when comparing within a plant species and within a marsh zone, and decreased across species, with increasing distance, and with increasing elevational differences. Abiotic conditions that were measured at individual sites (water column temperature and salinity) also showed high synchrony among sites, and in one case (salinity) decreased with increasing distance among sites. The Moran effect (synchronous abiotic conditions among sites) is the most plausible explanation for our findings. Decreased synchrony between creekbank and mid-marsh zones, and among habitat types (tidal fresh, brackish, and salt marsh) was likely due in part to different exposure to abiotic conditions and in part to variation in sensitivity of dominant plant species to these abiotic conditions. We found no evidence for asynchrony among species, sites or zones, indicating that one habitat type or zone will not compensate for poor production in another during years with low productivity; however, tidal fresh, brackish. and salt marsh sites were also not highly synchronous with each other, which will moderate productivity variation among years at the landscape level due to the portfolio effect. We identified the creekbank zone as more sensitive than the mid-marsh to abiotic variation and therefore as a priority for monitoring and management.

Background insect herbivory increases with local elevation but makes minor contribution to element cycling along natural gradients in the Subarctic

Herbivores can exert major controls over biogeochemical cycling. As invertebrates are highly sensitive to temperature shifts (ectothermal), the abundances of insects in high-latitude systems, where climate warming is rapid, is expected to increase. In subarctic mountain birch forests, research has focussed on geometrid moth outbreaks, while the contribution of background insect herbivory (BIH) to elemental cycling is poorly constrained. In northern Sweden, we estimated BIH along 9 elevational gradients distributed across a gradient in regional elevation, temperature, and precipitation to allow evaluation of consistency in local versus regional variation. We converted foliar loss via BIH to fluxes of C, nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) from the birch canopy to the soil to compare with other relevant soil inputs of the same elements and assessed different abiotic and biotic drivers of the observed variability. We found that leaf area loss due to BIH was ~1.6% on average. This is comparable to estimates from tundra, but considerably lower than ecosystems at lower latitudes. The C, N, and P fluxes from canopy to soil associated with BIH were 1-2 orders of magnitude lower than the soil input from senesced litter and external nutrient sources such as biological N fixation, atmospheric deposition of N, and P weathering estimated from the literature. Despite the minor contribution to overall elemental cycling in subarctic birch forests, the higher quality and earlier timing of the input of herbivore deposits to soils compared to senesced litter may make this contribution disproportionally important for various ecosystem functions. BIH increased significantly with leaf N content as well as local elevation along each transect, yet showed no significant relationship with temperature or humidity, nor the commonly used temperature proxy, absolute elevation. The lack of consistency between the local and regional elevational trends calls for caution when using elevation gradients as climate proxies.

Large-scale genetic admixture suggests high dispersal in an insect pest, the apple fruit moth

Knowledge about population genetic structure and dispersal capabilities is important for the development of targeted management strategies for agricultural pest species. The apple fruit moth, Argyresthia conjugella (Lepidoptera, Yponomeutidae), is a pre-dispersal seed predator. Larvae feed on rowanberries (Sorbus aucuparia), and when rowanberry seed production is low (i.e., inter-masting), the moth switches from laying eggs in rowanberries to apples (Malus domestica), resulting in devastating losses in apple crops. Using genetic methods, we investigated if this small moth expresses any local genetic structure, or alternatively if gene flow may be high within the Scandinavian Peninsula (~850.000 km², 55^o - 69^o N). Genetic diversity was found to be high (n = 669, mean He = 0.71). For three out of ten tetranucleotide STRs, we detected heterozygote deficiency caused by null alleles, but tests showed little impact on the overall results. Genetic differentiation between the 28 sampling locations was very low (average FST = 0.016, P < 0.000). Surprisingly, we found that all individuals could be assigned to one of two non-geographic genetic clusters, and that a third, geographic cluster was found to be associated with 30% of the sampling locations, with weak but significant signals of isolation-by-distance. Conclusively, our findings suggest wind-aided dispersal and spatial synchrony of both sexes of the apple fruit moth over large areas and across very different climatic zones. We speculate that the species may recently have had two separate genetic origins caused by a genetic bottleneck after inter-masting, followed by rapid dispersal and homogenization of the gene pool across the landscape. We suggest further investigations of spatial genetic similarities and differences of the apple fruit moth at larger geographical scales, through life-stages, across inter-masting, and during attacks by the parasitoid wasp (Microgaster politus).

When does weather synchronize life-history traits? Spatiotemporal patterns in juvenile body mass of two ungulates

Theory predicts that animal populations will be synchronized over large distances by weather and climatic conditions with high spatial synchrony. However, local variation in population responses to weather, and low synchrony in key weather variables or in other ecological processes may reduce the population synchrony. We investigated to what extent temperature and precipitation during different periods of the year synchronized juvenile body mass of moose and reindeer in Norway. We expected high synchronizing effect of weather variables with a high and consistent explanatory power on body mass dynamics across populations, and a weaker synchronizing effect of weather variables whose effect on body mass varied among populations. Juvenile body mass in both species was related to temperature and precipitation during several periods of the year. Temperature had the strongest explanatory power in both species, with a similar effect across all populations. There was higher spatial synchrony in temperature compared to precipitation, and accordingly temperature had the strongest synchronizing effect on juvenile body mass. Moreover, periods with strong explanatory power had stronger synchronizing effect on juvenile body mass in both species. However, weather variables with large variation in the effects on body mass among populations had weak synchronizing effect. The results confirm that weather has a large impact on the spatial structure of population properties but also that spatial heterogeneity, for instance, in environmental change or population density may affect how and to what extent populations are synchronized.