Land‐use change increases climatic vulnerability of migratory birds: Insights from integrated population modelling

Ecological and anthropogenic drivers of waterfowl productivity are synchronous across species, space, and time

Knowledge of interspecific and spatiotemporal variation in demography-environment relationships is key for understanding the population dynamics of sympatric species and developing multispecies conservation strategies. We used hierarchical random-effects models to examine interspecific and spatial variation in annual productivity in six migratory ducks (i.e., American wigeon [Mareca americana], blue-winged teal [Spatula discors], gadwall [Mareca strepera], green-winged teal [Anas crecca], mallard [Anas platyrhynchos] and northern pintail [Anas acuta]) across six distinct ecostrata in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America. We tested whether breeding habitat conditions (seasonal pond counts, agricultural intensification, and grassland acreage) or cross-seasonal effects (indexed by flooded rice acreage in primary wintering areas) better explained variation in the proportion of juveniles captured during late summer banding. The proportion of juveniles (i.e., productivity) was highly variable within species and ecostrata throughout 1961-2019 and generally declined through time in blue-winged teal, gadwall, mallard, pintail, and wigeon, but there was no support for a trend in green-winged teal. Productivity in Canadian ecostrata declined with increasing agricultural intensification and increased with increasing pond counts. We also found a strong cross-seasonal effect, whereby more flooded rice hectares during winter resulted in higher subsequent productivity. Our results suggest highly consistent environmental and anthropogenic effects on waterfowl productivity across species and space. Our study advances our understanding of current year and cross-seasonal effects on duck productivity across a suite of species and at finer spatial scales, which could help managers better target working-lands conservation programs on both breeding and wintering areas. We encourage other researchers to evaluate environmental drivers of population dynamics among species in a single modeling framework for a deeper understanding of whether conservation plans should be generalized or customized given limited financial resources.

Sensitivity of North American grassland birds to weather and climate variability

Grassland birds in North America have declined sharply over the last 60 years, driven by the widespread loss and degradation of grassland habitats. Climate change is occurring more rapidly in grasslands relative to some other ecosystems, and exposure to extreme and novel climate conditions may affect grassland bird ecology and demographics. To determine the potential effects of weather and climate variability on grassland birds, we conducted a systematic review of relationships between temperature and precipitation and demographic responses in grassland bird species of North America. Based on 124 independent studies, we used a vote-counting approach to quantify the frequency and direction of significant effects of weather and climate variability on grassland birds. Grassland birds tended to experience positive and negative effects of higher temperatures and altered precipitation. Moderate, sustained increases in mean temperature and precipitation benefitted some species, but extreme heat, drought, and heavy rainfall often reduced abundance and nest success. These patterns varied among climate regions, temporal scales of temperature and precipitation (<1 or ≥1 month), and taxa. The sensitivity of grassland bird populations to extreme weather and altered climate variability will likely be mediated by regional climates, interaction with other stressors, life-history strategies of various species, and species' tolerances for novel climate conditions.

Consequences of cross-season demographic correlations for population viability

Demographic correlations are pervasive in wildlife populations and can represent important secondary drivers of population growth. Empirical evidence suggests that correlations are in general positive for long-lived species, but little is known about the degree of variation among spatially segregated populations of the same species in relation to environmental conditions. We assessed the relative importance of two cross-season correlations in survival and productivity, for three Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica) populations with contrasting population trajectories and non-overlapping year-round distributions. The two correlations reflected either a relationship between adult survival prior to breeding on productivity, or a relationship between productivity and adult survival the subsequent year. Demographic rates and their correlations were estimated with an integrated population model, and their respective contributions to variation in population growth were calculated using a transient-life table response experiment. For all three populations, demographic correlations were positive at both time lags, although their strength differed. Given the different year-round distributions of these populations, this variation in the strength population-level demographic correlations points to environmental conditions as an important driver of demographic variation through life-history constraints. Consequently, the contributions of variances and correlations in demographic rates to population growth rates differed among puffin populations, which has implications for-particularly small-populations' viability under environmental change as positive correlations tend to reduce the stochastic population growth rate.

Habitat selection of wintering cranes in typical wetlands in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River over the past 20 years, China

The wetlands in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are the main overwintering and perching places for cranes. To examine the habitat selection mechanism of cranes in this area, two natural wetland reserves, Shengjin Lake and Poyang Lake, which are the main habitats of typical cranes, were selected as the study area. Using 20 years of Landsat satellite image data (between 1999 and 2019), the vegetation cover index was calculated from a pixel dichotomy model, and the landscape pattern index was obtained through Fragstats. The entropy method was adopted to determine the weight of the landscape index, and then, the habitat suitability index was calculated. Combined with the number of typical crane populations in the reserve, the selection mechanism of overwintering habitat of cranes was revealed. On the change of land-use type, the crane habitat of Shengjin Lake transferred more to non-crane habitat, and other land types increased, resulting in the decrease of crane habitat area. However, the change of crane habitat in Poyang Lake Reserve was small, so it can accommodate more cranes to overwintering here. In terms of vegetation coverage, most of the vegetation cover areas of Shengjin Lake were woodland near or far from the lake, but the woodland was not the habitat of cranes. Most of the vegetation-covered areas of Poyang Lake are grassland near the lake, which provide rest and foraging places for cranes. In the landscape pattern, the number of landscape patches in Shengjin Lake was large, the degree of landscape fragmentation was higher than that in Poyang Lake, the landscape complexity was higher, and the landscape diversity was simpler. This is not conducive to the maintenance of crane habitat, but also reduces the attractiveness of overwintering cranes, while the landscape suitability of crane habitat in Poyang Lake was higher than that in Shengjin Lake, and cranes were more likely to choose Poyang Lake as their overwintering habitat.

Waterbird guilds predict environmental attributes of inland saline aquatic ecosystems on multi-spatial scales

Inland saline waters in Central Asia constitute an important part of steppe ecosystems, providing considerable ecological functions and ecosystem services. Here we aim to present a multi-spatial scale analysis of nutrient cycling and transport waterbird guilds, and the environmental attributes of saline-soda aquatic ecosystems in Kazakhstan. The density, biomass, and diversity of waterbird guilds was determined in the case of three nutrient cycling and transport guilds: a) net-importer (IM), b) importer-exporter (IMEX), c) net-exporter (EX), according to the Boros's guild classification method, and for several traditional feeding guilds: carnivorous, herbivorous, invertebrate eater, omnivorous and piscivorous. Our results revealed that waterbird guilds, as predictors represented by the complete waterbird community, are in close relationship with several (N = 12) environmental attributes of inland saline waters through complex trophic linkages of waterbird populations on multi-spatial scales. The density and the biomass of the EX and IMEX guilds are strongly and positively correlated (i) with the productivity metrics of habitats (e.g., CHL, GPP), indicating their trophic position, and (ii) with water depth. We found significant correlations among guild density, biomass, diversity and environmental attributes on multi-spatial scales for IMEX and EX. Our results revealed that IMEX predicts the surrounding environment of aquatic habitats, whereas EX species are substantial environmental predictors of aquatic ecosystems. However, the diversity metric had valid models only with EX. The herbivorous and omnivorous guilds, that feed chiefly on plant materials consist mainly of IMEX and EX duck species, which were positively related to grassland coverage and the shoreline development index. As a methodological result, here we present a novel approach, the guild transport index, which has more robust relationships with environmental attributes than individual guilds, thus it provides a complex evaluation of the nutrient cycling by birds between aquatic and terrestrial environments on multi-spatial scales.

CONSERVING WETLANDS IN AGROECOSYSTEMS CAN SUSTAIN AERIAL INSECTIVORE PRODUCTIVITY AND SURVIVAL

Agricultural intensification simplifies natural landscapes and frequently results in the loss of biodiversity. Wetlands are highly productive and may offset these losses, but the amount of wetland area needed to support declining avian species on farmland is unknown. Using an avian aerial insectivore, the Tree Swallow (Tachycineta bicolor (Vieillot, 1808), we tested whether a gradient of pond area (visible surface water in wetland basins within 500 m of nest boxes; range: 0.2 - 30% pond area) at cropland and grassland sites was related to aquatic insect biomass, reproductive success, and adult female or nestling body condition. Aquatic insect biomass was ~2-8 times higher at the cropland site with intermediate (5.2%) pond area than at sites with the highest (15.6%) and lowest (0.2%) pond area. Swallow clutch initiation date was ~3-4 days earlier and nestling body condition and model-predicted first-year survival were ~10% higher among cropland sites with more pond area and were comparable to birds hatched at grassland sites. Loss of ponds due to agricultural drainage can reduce aquatic insect prey during the breeding season with apparent individual and demographic consequences for insectivorous birds. Overall, results suggest that where wetlands are conserved, intensive croplands may sustain Tree Swallow populations.

A niche for null models in adaptive resource management

As global systems rapidly change, our collective ability to predict future ecological dynamics will become increasingly important for successful natural resource management. By merging stakeholder objectives with system uncertainty, and by adapting actions to changing systems and knowledge, adaptive resource management (ARM) provides a rigorous platform for making sound decisions in a changing world. Critically, however, applications of ARM could be improved by employing benchmarks (i.e., points of reference) for determining when learning is occurring through the cycle of monitoring, modeling, and decision-making steps in ARM. Many applications of ARM use multiple model-based hypotheses to identify and reduce systematic uncertainty over time, but generally lack benchmarks for gauging discovery of scientific evidence and learning. This creates the danger of thinking that directional changes in model weights or rankings are indicative of evidence for hypotheses, when possibly all competing models are inadequate. There is thus a somewhat obvious, but yet to be filled niche for including benchmarks for learning in ARM. We contend that carefully designed "ecological null models," which are structured to produce an expected ecological pattern in the absence of a hypothesized mechanism, can serve as suitable benchmarks. Using a classic case study of mallard harvest management that is often used to demonstrate the successes of ARM for learning about ecological mechanisms, we show that simple ecological null models, such as population persistence (Nt +1 = Nt ), provide more robust near-term forecasts of population abundance than the currently used mechanistic models. More broadly, ecological null models can be used as benchmarks for learning in ARM that trigger the need for discarding model parameterizations and developing new ones when prevailing models underperform the ecological null model. Identifying mechanistic models that surpass these benchmarks will improve learning through ARM and help decision-makers keep pace with a rapidly changing world.

Integrated population modelling reveals potential drivers of demography from partially aligned data: a case study of snowy plover declines under human stressors

Knowledge of demography is essential for understanding wildlife population dynamics and developing appropriate conservation plans. However, population survey and demographic data (e.g., capture-recapture) are not always aligned in space and time, hindering our ability to robustly estimate population size and demographic processes. Integrated population models (IPMs) can provide inference for population dynamics with poorly aligned but jointly analysed population and demographic data. In this study, we used an IPM to analyse partially aligned population and demographic data of a migratory shorebird species, the snowy plover (Charadrius nivosus). Snowy plover populations have declined dramatically during the last two decades, yet the demographic mechanisms and environmental drivers of these declines remain poorly understood, hindering development of appropriate conservation strategies. We analysed 21 years (1998-2018) of partially aligned population survey, nest survey, and capture-recapture-resight data in three snowy plover populations (i.e., Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma) in the Southern Great Plains of the US. By using IPMs we aimed to achieve better precision while evaluating the effects of wetland habitat and climatic factors (minimum temperature, wind speed) on snowy plover demography. Our IPM provided reasonable precision for productivity measures even with missing data, but population and survival estimates had greater uncertainty in years without corresponding data. Our model also uncovered the complex relationships between wetland habitat, climate, and demography with reasonable precision. Wetland habitat had positive effects on snowy plover productivity (i.e., clutch size and clutch fate), indicating the importance of protecting wetland habitat under climate change and other human stressors for the conservation of this species. We also found a positive effect of minimum temperature on snowy plover productivity, indicating potential benefits of warmth during night on their population. Based on our results, we suggest prioritizing population and capture-recapture surveys for understanding population dynamics and underlying demographic processes when data collection is limited by time and/or financial resources. Our modelling approach can be used to allocate limited conservation resources for evidence-based decision-making.

Impact of land cover and landfills on the breeding effect and nest occupancy of the white stork in Poland

Food wastes are among the factors with the greatest effects on animal populations. The white stork is among bird species that clearly profit from feeding at landfills, at least in Western Europe and North Africa. However, the rate and the consequences of this feeding are still unknown in the Central-Eastern European population, which differs from the western population not only in terms of migration routes but also in the greater availability of suitable natural breeding habitats due to less intensified agriculture. The aim of the study was to describe the use of landfills and its consequences in terms of probability of nest occupation and breeding effects in different regions of Poland. Although the most important factors influencing nest-site selection and breeding effect are still habitat quality and weather conditions, distance to landfills is important in selection of nest sites. White storks use landfills most intensively late in the breeding season, independently of the density of breeding pairs. The results suggest that the use of landfills is not currently essential in the Central-Eastern European population of the white stork, does not affect breeding effect, and may be more frequent in non-breeders. However, this phenomenon is still developing and requires continuous monitoring.

Interrelated impacts of climate and land-use change on a widespread waterbird

Together climate and land-use change play a crucial role in determining species distribution and abundance, but measuring the simultaneous impacts of these processes on current and future population trajectories is challenging due to time lags, interactive effects and data limitations. Most approaches that relate multiple global change drivers to population changes have been based on occurrence or count data alone. We leveraged three long-term (1995-2019) datasets to develop a coupled integrated population model-Bayesian population viability analysis (IPM-BPVA) to project future survival and reproductive success for common loons Gavia immer in northern Wisconsin, USA, by explicitly linking vital rates to changes in climate and land use. The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a broad-scale climate index, immediately preceding the breeding season and annual changes in developed land cover within breeding areas both had strongly negative influences on adult survival. Local summer rainfall was negatively related to fecundity, though this relationship was mediated by a lagged interaction with the winter NAO, suggesting a compensatory population-level response to climate variability. We compared population viability under 12 future scenarios of annual land-use change, precipitation and NAO conditions. Under all scenarios, the loon population was expected to decline, yet the steepest declines were projected under positive NAO trends, as anticipated with ongoing climate change. Thus, loons breeding in the northern United States are likely to remain affected by climatic processes occurring thousands of miles away in the North Atlantic during the non-breeding period of the annual cycle. Our results reveal that climate and land-use changes are differentially contributing to loon population declines along the southern edge of their breeding range and will continue to do so despite natural compensatory responses. We also demonstrate that concurrent analysis of multiple data types facilitates deeper understanding of the ecological implications of anthropogenic-induced change occurring at multiple spatial scales. Our modelling approach can be used to project demographic responses of populations to varying environmental conditions while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty, an increasingly pressing need in the face of unprecedented global change.

Linking landscape-scale conservation to regional and continental outcomes for a migratory species

Land-use intensification on arable land is expanding and posing a threat to biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide. We develop methods to link funding for avian breeding habitat conservation and management at landscape scales to equilibrium abundance of a migratory species at the continental scale. We apply this novel approach to a harvested bird valued by birders and hunters in North America, the northern pintail duck (Anas acuta), a species well below its population goal. Based on empirical observations from 2007–2016, habitat conservation investments for waterfowl cost $313 M and affected <2% of the pintail’s primary breeding area in the Prairie Pothole Region of Canada. Realistic scenarios for harvest and habitat conservation costing an estimated $588 M (2016 USD) led to predicted pintail population sizes <3 M when assuming average parameter values. Accounting for parameter uncertainty, converting 70–100% of these croplands to idle grassland (cost: $35.7B–50B) is required to achieve the continental population goal of 4 M individuals under the current harvest policy. Using our work as a starting point, we propose continued development of modeling approaches that link conservation funding, habitat delivery, and population response to better integrate conservation efforts and harvest management of economically important migratory species.