Recreational harvest and incident-response management reduce human-carnivore conflicts in an anthropogenic landscape

Perception and trust influence acceptance for black bears more than bear density or conflicts

Introduction

To sustain black bear (Ursus americanus) populations, wildlife managers should understand the coupled socio-ecological systems that influence acceptance capacity for bears.

Method

In a study area encompassing a portion of New York State, we spatially matched datasets from three sources: human-bear conflict reports between 2006 and 2018, estimates of local bear density in 2017–2018, and responses to a 2018 property owner survey (n=1,772). We used structural equation modeling to test hypothesized relationships between local human-bear conflict, local bear density, and psychological variables.

Results

The final model explained 57% of the variance in acceptance. The effect of bear population density on acceptance capacity for bears was relatively small and was mediated by a third variable: perception of proximity to the effects of human-bear interactions. The variables that exerted a direct effect on acceptance were perception of bear-related benefits, perception of bear-related risks, perceived proximity to effects of human-bear interactions, and being a hunter. Perception of bear-related benefits had a greater effect on acceptance than perception of bear-related risks. Perceived proximity to effects of human-bear interactions was affected by local bear density, but also was affected by social trust. Increased social trust had nearly the same effect on perceived proximity as decreased bear density. Social trust had the greatest indirect effect on acceptance of any variable in the model.

Discussion

Findings suggest wildlife agencies could maintain public acceptance for bears through an integrated approach that combines actions to address bear-related perceptions and social trust along with active management of bear populations.

Quantifying the checks and balances of collaborative governance systems for adaptive carnivore management

Recovering or threatened carnivore populations are often harvested to minimise their impact on human activities, such as livestock farming or game hunting. Increasingly, harvest quota decisions involve a set of scientific, administrative and political institutions operating at national and sub‐national levels whose interactions and collective decision‐making aim to increase the legitimacy of management and ensure population targets are met. In practice, however, assessments of how quota decisions change between these different actors and what consequences these changes have on population trends are rare.

We combine a state‐space population modelling approach with an analysis of quota decisions taken at both regional and national levels between 2007 and 2018 to build a set of decision‐making models that together predict annual harvest quota values for Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in Norway.

We reveal a tendency for administrative decision‐makers to compensate for consistent quota increases by political actors, particularly when the lynx population size estimate is above the regional target. Using population forecasts based on the ensemble of decision‐making models, we show that such buffering of political biases ensures lynx population size remains close to regional and national targets in the long term.

Our results go beyond the usual qualitative assessment of collaborative governance systems for carnivore management, revealing a system of checks and balances that, in the case of lynx in Norway, ensures both multi‐stakeholder participation and sustainable harvest quotas. Nevertheless, we highlight important inter‐regional differences in decision‐making and population forecasts, the socio‐ecological drivers of which need to be better understood to prevent future population declines.

Synthesis and applications. Our work analyses the sequence of decisions leading to yearly quotas for lynx harvest in Norway, highlighting the collaborative and structural processes that together shape harvest sustainability. In doing so, we provide a predictive framework to evaluate participatory decision‐making processes in wildlife management, paving the way for scientists and decision‐makers to collaborate more widely in identifying where decision biases might lie and how institutional arrangements can be optimised to minimise them. We emphasise, however, that this is only possible if wildlife management decisions are documented and transparent.

Measuring the intensity of conflicts in conservation

Conflicts between the interests of biodiversity conservation and other human activities pose a major threat to natural ecosystems and human well-being, yet few methods exist to quantify their intensity and model their dynamics. We develop a categorization of conflict intensity based on the curve of conflict, a model originally used to track the escalation and deescalation of armed conflicts. Our categorization assigns six intensity levels reflecting the discourse and actions of stakeholders involved in a given conflict, from coexistence or collaboration to physical violence. Using a range of case studies, we demonstrate the value of our approach in quantifying conflict trends, estimating transition probabilities between conflict stages, and modeling conflict intensity as a function of relevant covariates. By taking an evidence-based approach to quantifying stakeholder behavior, the proposed framework allows for a better understanding of the drivers of conservation conflict development across a diverse range of socioecological scenarios.

Population reduction by hunting helps control human-wildlife conflicts for a species that is a conservation success story

Among the world's large Carnivores, American black bears (Ursus americanus) are the foremost conservation success story. Populations have been expanding across North America because the species is adaptable and tolerant of living near people, and because management agencies in the U.S. and Canada controlled hunting and other human-sources of mortality. As a result, human-black bear conflicts (damage to property, general nuisance, threat to human safety) have dramatically increased in some areas, making it urgently important to develop and deploy a variety of mitigation tools. Previous studies claimed that legal hunting did not directly reduce conflicts, but they did not evaluate whether hunting controlled conflicts via management of population size. Here, we compared temporal patterns of phoned-in complaints about black bears (total ~63,500) in Minnesota, USA, over 4 decades to corresponding bear population estimates: both doubled during the first decade. We also quantified natural bear foods, and found that large year-to-year fluctuations affected numbers of complaints; however, since this variation is due largely to weather, this factor cannot be managed. Complaints fell sharply when the management agency (1) shifted more responsibility for preventing and mitigating conflicts to the public; and (2) increased hunting pressure to reduce the bear population. This population reduction was more extreme than intended, however, and after hunting pressure was curtailed, population regrowth was slower than anticipated; consequently both population size and complaints remained at relatively low levels statewide for 2 decades (although with local hotspots). These long-term data indicated that conflicts can be kept in tolerable bounds by managing population size through hunting; but due to the bluntness of this instrument and deficiencies and uncertainties in monitoring and manipulating populations, it is wiser to maintain a population at a level where conflicts are socially-acceptable than try to reduce it once it is well beyond that point.

Response of a remnant marmot population to habitat enhancement yields insights into marmot ecology

We evaluated the response of a remnant population of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris) to targeted habitat enhancement in an ecological system that had been degraded during ~100 years of intensive livestock management, including marmot eradication. We used capture-recapture data and a novel use of a multistate framework to evaluate geographic expansion of the marmot population pre- and post-habitat enhancement. We also estimated age-structured survival, reproduction, and sex ratios. The marmot population appeared to respond positively to new habitat opportunities created by habitat enhancement: the number of marmots captured increased from three marmots pre-habitat enhancement to 54 (28 adults and yearlings, 26 young) post-habitat enhancement at the end of the study. Marmots expanded geographically by transitioning into habitat-enhanced areas, and adult females occupied and reproduced in all habitat-enhanced areas. The sex ratio of the young population in 2019 was strongly female-biased, which may have been influenced by poor body condition of breeding females owing to unusually prolonged snow cover that year. Adult and yearling survival were within the range of that reported for colonial adults and yearlings in Colorado. Our results suggest that active habitat enhancement can assist in the recovery of marmot populations in systems where marmots historically existed.