Parsing the effects of demography, climate and management on recurrent brucellosis outbreaks in elk

Climate change and deer in boreal and temperate regions: From physiology to population dynamics and species distributions

Climate change causes far-reaching disruption in nature, where tolerance thresholds already have been exceeded for some plants and animals. In the short term, deer may respond to climate through individual physiological and behavioral responses. Over time, individual responses can aggregate to the population level and ultimately lead to evolutionary adaptations. We systematically reviewed the literature (published 2000-2022) to summarize the effect of temperature, rainfall, snow, combined measures (e.g., the North Atlantic Oscillation), and extreme events, on deer species inhabiting boreal and temperate forests in terms of their physiology, spatial use, and population dynamics. We targeted deer species that inhabit relevant biomes in North America, Europe, and Asia: moose, roe deer, wapiti, red deer, sika deer, fallow deer, white-tailed deer, mule deer, caribou, and reindeer. Our review (218 papers) shows that many deer populations will likely benefit in part from warmer winters, but hotter and drier summers may exceed their physiological tolerances. We found support for deer expressing both morphological, physiological, and behavioral plasticity in response to climate variability. For example, some deer species can limit the effects of harsh weather conditions by modifying habitat use and daily activity patterns, while the physiological responses of female deer can lead to long-lasting effects on population dynamics. We identified 20 patterns, among which some illustrate antagonistic pathways, suggesting that detrimental effects will cancel out some of the benefits of climate change. Our findings highlight the influence of local variables (e.g., population density and predation) on how deer will respond to climatic conditions. We identified several knowledge gaps, such as studies regarding the potential impact on these animals of extreme weather events, snow type, and wetter autumns. The patterns we have identified in this literature review should help managers understand how populations of deer may be affected by regionally projected futures regarding temperature, rainfall, and snow.

Impact of infectious diseases on wild bovidae populations in Thailand: insights from population modelling and disease dynamics

The wildlife and livestock interface is vital for wildlife conservation and habitat management. Infectious diseases maintained by domestic species may impact threatened species such as Asian bovids, as they share natural resources and habitats. To predict the population impact of infectious diseases with different traits, we used stochastic mathematical models to simulate the population dynamics over 100 years for 100 times in a model gaur (Bos gaurus) population with and without disease. We simulated repeated introductions from a reservoir, such as domestic cattle. We selected six bovine infectious diseases; anthrax, bovine tuberculosis, haemorrhagic septicaemia, lumpy skin disease, foot and mouth disease and brucellosis, all of which have caused outbreaks in wildlife populations. From a starting population of 300, the disease-free population increased by an average of 228% over 100 years. Brucellosis with frequency-dependent transmission showed the highest average population declines (-97%), with population extinction occurring 16% of the time. Foot and mouth disease with frequency-dependent transmission showed the lowest impact, with an average population increase of 200%. Overall, acute infections with very high or low fatality had the lowest impact, whereas chronic infections produced the greatest population decline. These results may help disease management and surveillance strategies support wildlife conservation.

Reproductive Fate of Brucellosis-Seropositive Elk (Cervus canadensis): Implications for Disease Transmission Risk

Brucellosis is a disease caused by the bacterium Brucella abortus that infects elk (Cervus canadensis) and cattle (Bos taurus). There is the potential for transmission from wildlife to livestock through contact with infected material shed during abortions or live births. To understand the impact of exposure on pregnancy rates we captured 30-100 elk per year from 2011 through 2020, testing their blood for serologic exposure to B. abortus. Predicted pregnancy rates for seropositive animals were 9.6% lower in prime-age (2.5-15.5 yr; 85%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 74-91%) and 37.7% lower in old (>15.5 yr; 43%, 95% CI: 19-71%) elk as compared with seronegative animals. To understand the risk of seropositive elk shedding B. abortus bacteria and the effects of exposure on elk reproductive performance, we conducted a 5-yr longitudinal study monitoring 30 seropositive elk. We estimated the annual probability of a seropositive elk having an abortion as 0.06 (95% CI: 0.02-0.15). We detected B. abortus at three abortions and two live births, using a combination of culture and PCR testing. The predicted probability of a pregnant seropositive elk shedding B. abortus during an abortion or live birth was 0.08 (95% CI: 0.04-0.19). To understand what proportion of seropositive elk harbored live B. abortus bacteria in their tissues, we euthanized seropositive elk at the end of 5 yr of monitoring and sampled tissues for B. abortus. Assuming perfect detection, the predicted probability of a seropositive elk having B. abortus in at least one tissue was 0.18 (95% CI: 0.06-0.43). The transmission risk seropositive elk pose is mitigated by decreased pregnancy rates, low probability of abortion events, low probability of shedding at live birth events, and reasonably low probability of B. abortus in tissues.

Effects of culling vampire bats on the spatial spread and spillover of rabies virus

Controlling pathogen circulation in wildlife reservoirs is notoriously challenging. In Latin America, vampire bats have been culled for decades in hopes of mitigating lethal rabies infections in humans and livestock. Whether culls reduce or exacerbate rabies transmission remains controversial. Using Bayesian state-space models, we show that a 2-year, spatially extensive bat cull in an area of exceptional rabies incidence in Peru failed to reduce spillover to livestock, despite reducing bat population density. Viral whole genome sequencing and phylogeographic analyses further demonstrated that culling before virus arrival slowed viral spatial spread, but reactive culling accelerated spread, suggesting that culling-induced changes in bat dispersal promoted viral invasions. Our findings question the core assumptions of density-dependent transmission and localized viral maintenance that underlie culling bats as a rabies prevention strategy and provide an epidemiological and evolutionary framework to understand the outcomes of interventions in complex wildlife disease systems.

A pseudomolecule assembly of the Rocky Mountain elk genome

Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus canadensis) populations have significant economic implications to the cattle industry, as they are a major reservoir for Brucella abortus in the Greater Yellowstone area. Vaccination attempts against intracellular bacterial diseases in elk populations have not been successful due to a negligible adaptive cellular immune response. A lack of genomic resources has impeded attempts to better understand why vaccination does not induce protective immunity. To overcome this limitation, PacBio, Illumina, and Hi-C sequencing with a total of 686-fold coverage was used to assemble the elk genome into 35 pseudomolecules. A robust gene annotation was generated resulting in 18,013 gene models and 33,422 mRNAs. The accuracy of the assembly was assessed using synteny to the red deer and cattle genomes identifying several chromosomal rearrangements, fusions and fissions. Because this genome assembly and annotation provide a foundation for genome-enabled exploration of Cervus species, we demonstrate its utility by exploring the conservation of immune system-related genes. We conclude by comparing cattle immune system-related genes to the elk genome, revealing eight putative gene losses in elk.