Unravelling the dispersal dynamics and ecological drivers of the African swine fever outbreak in Belgium

Remote Sensing Provides a Rapid Epidemiological Context for the Control of African Swine Fever in Germany

Transboundary disease control, as for African swine fever (ASF), requires rapid understanding of the locally relevant potential risk factors. Here, we show how satellite remote sensing can be applied to the field of animal disease control by providing an epidemiological context for the implementation of measures against the occurrence of ASF in Germany. We find that remotely sensed observations are of the greatest value at a lower jurisdictional level, particularly in support of wild boar carcass search efforts.

The diffusion metrics of African swine fever in wild boar

To control African swine fever (ASF) efficiently, easily interpretable metrics of the outbreak dynamics are needed to plan and adapt the required measures. We found that the spread pattern of African Swine Fever cases in wild boar follows the mechanics of a diffusion process, at least in the early phase, for the cases that occurred in Germany. Following incursion into a previously unaffected area, infection disseminates locally within a naive and abundant wild boar population. Using real case data for Germany, we derive statistics about the time differences and distances between consecutive case reports. With the use of these statistics, we generate an ensemble of random walkers (continuous time random walks, CTRW) that resemble the properties of the observed outbreak pattern as one possible realization of all possible disease dissemination patterns. The trained random walker ensemble yields the diffusion constant, the affected area, and the outbreak velocity of early ASF spread in wild boar. These methods are easy to interpret, robust, and may be adapted for different regions. Therefore, diffusion metrics can be useful descriptors of early disease dynamics and help facilitate efficient control of African Swine Fever.

Eleven Years of Health Monitoring in Wild Boars (Sus scrofa) in the Emilia-Romagna Region (Italy)

In recent years, the growth of wild ungulates has increased the focus on their health monitoring. In particular, the health status of wild boars is relevant for the economic impact on the pig industry. The Emilia-Romagna region activated a wildlife monitoring plan to better evaluate the health status of the wild boar population. Between 2011 and 2021, samples of found dead and hunted wild boar have been examined for trichinellosis, tuberculosis, brucellosis, african swine fever, classical swine fever, Aujeszky's disease, swine vesicular disease, and swine influenza A. Trichinella britovi was identified in 0.001% of the examined wild boars; neither M. bovis nor M. tuberculosis were found in M. tuberculosis complex positive samples; 2.3% were positive for Brucella suis; 29.4% of the sera were positive for Aujeszky's disease virus; and 0.9% of the samples were positive for swine influenza A virus. With an uncertain population estimate, the number of animals tested, the number of positives, and the sampling method do not allow us to make many inferences but suggest the need to implement and strengthen the existing surveillance activity, as it seems to be the only viable alternative for safeguarding animal and human health.

Three Years of African Swine Fever in South Korea (2019–2021): A Scoping Review of Epidemiological Understanding

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious viral disease in domestic pigs and wild boar that causes tremendous socioeconomic damage in related industries. In 2019, the virus emerged in South Korea, which has since reported 21 outbreaks in domestic pig farms and over 2,600 cases in wild boar. In this review, we synthesize the epidemiological knowledge generated on ASF in South Korea during the first three years of the epidemic (2019–2021). We searched four international and one domestic Korean database to identify scientific articles published since 2019 and describing ASF epidemiology in South Korea. Fourteen articles met our selection criteria and were used to synthesize the origin of ASF in South Korea, the risk factors of disease occurrence, the effectiveness of the surveillance and intervention measures that were implemented, and the viral transmission dynamics. We found that timely intensive surveillance and interventions on domestic pig farms successfully blocked between-farm transmission. However, in wild boar, the ASF virus has spread massively towards the south primarily along the mountain ranges despite ongoing fence erection and intensive depopulation efforts, endangering domestic pig farms across the country. The current devastating epidemic is suspected to be the consequence of an ASF control strategy unaligned to the epidemiological context, the challenging implementation of control measures hindered by topological complexities, and inappropriate biosecurity by field workers. To improve our understanding of ASF epidemiology in South Korea and enhance disease management, future research studies should specify the ecological drivers of disease distribution and spread and devise effective control strategies, particularly in relation to Korean topography, and the latent spread of the virus in wild boar populations. Additionally, research studies should explore the psychosocial factors for ASF management, and develop tools to support evidence-based decision-making for managing ASFV in wild boar.

A Generic Risk Assessment Model for Animal Disease Entry through Wildlife: The Example of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza and African Swine Fever in The Netherlands

Animal diseases can enter countries or regions through the movements of infected wildlife. A generic risk model would allow to quantify the risk of entry via this introduction route for different diseases and wildlife species, despite the vast variety in both, and help policy-makers to make informed decisions. Here, we propose such a generic risk assessment model and illustrate its application by assessing the risk of entry of African swine fever (ASF) through wild boar and highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) through wild birds for the Netherlands between 2014–2021. We used disease outbreak data and abstracted movement patterns to populate a stochastic risk model. We found that the entry risk of HPAI fluctuated between the years, with a peak in 2021. In that year, we estimated the number of infected birds to reach the Dutch border by wild bird migration at 273 (95% uncertainty interval: 254–290). The probability that ASF outbreaks that occurred between 2014 and 2021 reached the Dutch border through wild boar movement was very low throughout the whole period; only the upper confidence bound indicated a small entry risk. On a yearly scale, the predicted entry risk for HPAI correlated well with the number of observed outbreaks. In conclusion, we present a generic and flexible framework to assess the entry risk of disease through wildlife. The model allows rapid and transparent estimation of the entry risk for diverse diseases and wildlife species. The modular structure of the model allows for adding nuance and complexity when required or when more data becomes available.

Management of a Focal Introduction of ASF Virus in Wild Boar: The Belgian Experience

African swine fever (ASF) is a fatal disease of suids that was detected in wild boar in Belgium in September 2018. The measures implemented to stop the spread and eliminate the African swine fever virus consisted of creating restriction zones, organising efficient search and removal of carcasses, constructing wire fences, and depopulating wild boar in the area surrounding the infected zone. The ASF management zone included the infected and the white zones and covered 1106 km² from which 7077 wild boar have been removed. A total of 5338 wild boars have been qPCR-tested and 833 have been detected ASF-positive. The search effort amounted to 60,631 h with a main focus on the infected zone (88%). A total of 277 km of fences have been set up. The main cause of mortality in the infected zone was the virus itself, while hunting, trapping, and night shooting were used together to reduce the wild boar density in the surrounding white zones. After continuous dispersion of the virus until March 2019, the epidemic wave stopped, and the last fresh positive case was discovered in August 2019. Hence, Belgium was declared free of the disease in November 2020.

Estimation of R0 for the Spread of the First ASF Epidemic in Italy from Fresh Carcasses

After fifty years of spread in the European continent, the African swine fever (ASF) virus was detected for the first time in the north of Italy (Piedmont) in a wild boar carcass in December, 2021. During the first six months of the epidemic, the central role of wild boars in disease transmission was confirmed by more than 200 outbreaks, which occurred in two different areas declared as infected. The virus entered a domestic pig farm in the second temporal cluster identified in the center of the country (Lazio). Understanding ASF dynamics in wild boars is a prerequisite for preventing the spread, and for designing and applying effective surveillance and control plans. The aim of this work was to describe and evaluate the data collected during the first six months of the ASF epidemic in Italy, and to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) in order to quantify the extent of disease spread. The R0 estimates were significantly different for the two spatio-temporal clusters of ASF in Italy, and they identified the two infected areas based on the time necessary for the number of cases to double (td) and on an exponential decay model. These results (R0 = 1.41 in Piedmont and 1.66 in Lazio) provide quantitative knowledge on the epidemiology of ASF in Italy. These parameters could represent a fundamental tool for modeling country-specific ASF transmission and for monitoring both the spread and sampling effort needed to detect the disease early.

Stochastic modelling of African swine fever in wild boar and domestic pigs: Epidemic forecasting and comparison of disease management strategies

African swine fever (ASF), caused by the African swine fever virus (ASFV), is highly virulent in domestic pigs and wild boar (Sus scrofa), causing up to 100% mortality. The recent epidemic of ASF in Europe has had a serious economic impact and poses a threat to global food security. Unfortunately, there is no effective treatment or vaccine against ASFV, limiting the available disease management strategies. Mathematical models allow us to further our understanding of infectious disease dynamics and evaluate the efficacy of disease management strategies. The ASF Challenge, organised by the French National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food, and the Environment, aimed to expand the development of ASF transmission models to inform policy makers in a timely manner. Here, we present the model and associated projections produced by our team during the challenge. We developed a stochastic model combining transmission between wild boar and domestic pigs, which was calibrated to synthetic data corresponding to different phases describing the epidemic progression. The model was then used to produce forward projections describing the likely temporal evolution of the epidemic under various disease management scenarios. Despite the interventions implemented, long-term projections forecasted persistence of ASFV in wild boar, and hence repeated outbreaks in domestic pigs. A key finding was that it is important to consider the timescale over which different measures are evaluated: interventions that have only limited effectiveness in the short term may yield substantial long-term benefits. Our model has several limitations, partly because it was developed in real-time. Nonetheless, it can inform understanding of the likely development of ASF epidemics and the efficacy of disease management strategies, should the virus continue its spread in Europe.

Effects of habitat fragmentation and hunting activities on African swine fever dynamics among wild boar populations

African Swine Fever (ASF) has been slowly but steadily increasing its endemic range throughout Europe, posing an imminent risk to the pig industry. ASF transmission among wild boar occurs mainly through wild boar population movements, hence wild boar presence and density are important risk factors for introducing, maintaining, and spreading the disease. The understanding of wild boar population dynamics and their role in ASF transmission and persistence remains limited. It is crucial to gain knowledge in this area to improve wildlife management while minimizing the risks for ASF introduction and spread. We adapted an individual-based spatio-temporal stochastic model developed by Halasa et al. (2019) and tailored it to two regions in France. The model assessed yearly hunting activity, the carcass persistence seasonality, and the specific landscape characteristics of the Franco-Belgian border region and the Pyrénées-Atlantiques department. Following the establishment of local population dynamics through preliminary runs of the model, the model was run 100 iterations over 8 years in the two study areas where ASF was randomly seeded after the 2nd year of simulation. For each scenario, the model was initiated with 500 wild boar groups randomly spread across the study areas. Hunting activities were included and excluded to assess the impact on population growth and ASF spread. Results showed an ever-growing wild boar population for all scenarios, which was balanced when hunting activities were included. When introducing ASF, the wild boar populations were dramatically impacted in both areas with a decrease of 63 % of the population at the Franco-Belgian border and 86 % in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques department. Habitat fragmentation and landscape connectivity were highlighted as important factors shaping ASF propagation. The Franco-Belgian border, which had the most fragmented habitat with unsuitable areas for wild boars, was shown to limit wild boar movements, reducing the probability, and spread of ASF across the landscape. The lack of connectivity was reflected in a less effective transmission and lower number of infected groups (406 versus 467). In contrast, the epidemic duration was lengthened in the fragmented habitat compared to the homogenous area (2.6 years vs 1.6 years). This study provided information on defining and implementing control measures in case of an ASF incursion, since delimitation of the area via fences artificially induces landscape fragmentation, which is important for controlling ASF outbreaks.

How do genetic relatedness and spatial proximity shape African swine fever infections in wild boar?

The importance of social and spatial structuring of wildlife populations for disease spread, though widely recognized, is still poorly understood in many host-pathogen systems. In particular, system specific kin relationships among hosts can create contact heterogeneities and differential disease transmission rates. Here, we investigate how distance-dependent infection risk is influenced by genetic relatedness in a novel host-pathogen system: wild boar (Sus scrofa) and African swine fever (ASF). We hypothesized that infection risk would correlate positively with proximity and relatedness to ASF-infected individuals but expected those relationships to weaken with distance between individuals due to decay in contact rates and genetic similarity. We genotyped 323 wild boar samples (243 ASF-negative and 80 ASF-positive) collected in north-eastern Poland in 2014-2016 and modeled the effects of geographic distance, genetic relatedness, and ASF virus transmission mode (direct or carcass-based) on the probability of ASF infection. Infection risk was positively associated with spatial proximity and genetic relatedness to infected individuals with generally stronger effect of distance. In the high-contact zone (0-2 km), infection risk was shaped by the presence of infected individuals rather than by relatedness to them. In the medium-contact zone (2-5 km), infection risk decreased but was still associated with relatedness and paired infections were more frequent among relatives. At farther distances, infection risk further declined with relatedness and proximity to positive individuals, and was 60% lower among unrelated individuals in the no-contact zone (33% in10-20 km) compared with among relatives in the high-contact zone (93% in 0-2 km). Transmission mode influenced the relationship between proximity or relatedness and infection risk. Our results indicate that the presence of nearby infected individuals is most important for shaping ASF infection rates through carcass-based transmission, while relatedness plays an important role in shaping transmission rates between live animals. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Different patterns of human activities in nature during Covid-19 pandemic and African swine fever outbreak confirm direct impact on wildlife disruption

Implementation of various restrictions to eradicate viral diseases has globally affected human activity and subsequently nature. But how can the altered routines of human activity (restrictions, lockdowns) affect wildlife behaviour? This study compared the differences between human and wildlife occurrences in the study forest area with acreage of 5430.6 ha in 2018 (African swine fever outbreak, complete entrance ban), 2019 (standard pattern) and 2020 (COVID-19 restrictions) during the breeding season. The number of visitors was lower by 64% in 2018 (non-respecting of the entry ban by forest visitors) compared to standard 2019, while in 2020, the number of visitors increased to 151%. In the COVID-19 period, distinct peaks in the number of visitors were observed between 8-11 AM and 4-7 PM. The peaks of wildlife activity were recorded between 4-7 AM and 9-12 PM. Animals avoided the localities that were visited by humans during the people-influenced time (24 h after people visit), which confirmed the direct negative impact of human activities on wildlife.

Managing African Swine Fever: Assessing the Potential of Camera Traps in Monitoring Wild Boar Occupancy Trends in Infected and Non-infected Zones, Using Spatio-Temporal Statistical Models

The recent spreading of African swine fever (ASF) over the Eurasian continent has been acknowledged as a serious economic threat for the pork industry. Consequently, an extensive body of research focuses on the epidemiology and control of ASF. Nevertheless, little information is available on the combined effect of ASF and ASF-related control measures on wild boar (Sus scrofa) population abundances. This is crucial information given the role of the remaining wild boar that act as an important reservoir of the disease. Given the high potential of camera traps as a non-invasive method for ungulate trend estimation, we assess the effectiveness of ASF control measures using a camera trap network. In this study, we focus on a major ASF outbreak in 2018-2020 in the South of Belgium. This outbreak elicited a strong management response, both in terms of fencing off a large infected zone as well as an intensive culling regime. We apply a Bayesian multi-season site-occupancy model to wild boar detection/non-detection data. Our results show that (1) occupancy rates at the onset of our monitoring period reflect the ASF infection status; (2) ASF-induced mortality and culling efforts jointly lead to decreased occupancy over time; and (3) the estimated mean total extinction rate ranges between 22.44 and 91.35%, depending on the ASF infection status. Together, these results confirm the effectiveness of ASF control measures implemented in Wallonia (Belgium), which has regained its disease-free status in December 2020, as well as the usefulness of a camera trap network to monitor these effects.

Modelling the role of mortality-based response triggers on the effectiveness of African swine fever control strategies

African swine fever (ASF) is considered the most impactful transboundary swine disease. In the absence of effective vaccines, control strategies are heavily dependent on mass depopulation and shipment restrictions. Here, we developed a nested multiscale model for the transmission of ASF, combining a spatially explicit network model of animal shipments with a deterministic compartmental model for the dynamics of two ASF strains within 3 km × 3 km pixels in one Brazilian state. The model outcomes are epidemic duration, number of secondary infected farms and pigs, and distance of ASF spread. The model also shows the spatial distribution of ASF epidemics. We analyzed quarantine-based control interventions in the context of mortality trigger thresholds for the deployment of control strategies. The mean epidemic duration of a moderately virulent strain was 11.2 days, assuming the first infection is detected (best-case scenario), and 15.9 days when detection is triggered at 10% mortality. For a highly virulent strain, the epidemic duration was 6.5 days and 13.1 days, respectively. The distance from the source to infected locations and the spatial distribution was not dependent on strain virulence. Under the best-case scenario, we projected an average number of infected farms of 23.77 farms and 18.8 farms for the moderate and highly virulent strains, respectively. At 10% mortality-trigger, the predicted number of infected farms was on average 46.27 farms and 42.96 farms, respectively. We also demonstrated that the establishment of ring quarantine zones regardless of size (i.e. 5 km, 15 km) was outperformed by backward animal movement tracking. The proposed modelling framework provides an evaluation of ASF epidemic potential, providing a ranking of quarantine-based control strategies that could assist animal health authorities in planning the national preparedness and response plan.

A Review of Environmental Risk Factors for African Swine Fever in European Wild Boar

A detailed understanding of environmental risk factors for African swine fever (ASF) in wild boar will be not only essential for risk assessments but also for timely and spatially informed allocation of resources in order to manage wild boar-targeted ASF control measures efficiently. Here, we review currently known environmental risk factors that can influence the occurrence of ASF virus infection in wild boar when compared to disease occurrence in wild boar of a non-exposed reference scenario. Accordingly, the exposure of wild boar to environmental risk factors related to (1) climate, (2) land cover, (3) human activity, (4) wild boar and (5) ASF were evaluated. As key environmental risk factors in this review, increased ASF occurrence in wild boar was associated with seasonal patterns, forest coverage, presence of water, human presence, farming activities, wild boar density and ASF nearness. The review highlights inconsistencies in some of these risk factor associations with disease detection in space and time and may provide valuable insights for the investigation of ASF transmission dynamics. The examined risk information was applied to consider potential improvements of the ASF control strategy in wild boar regarding disease surveillance, hunting, wild boar carcass searches and ASF barrier implementation.

African Swine Fever in Wild Boar in Europe-A Review

The introduction of genotype II African swine fever (ASF) virus, presumably from Africa into Georgia in 2007, and its continuous spread through Europe and Asia as a panzootic disease of suids, continues to have a huge socio-economic impact. ASF is characterized by hemorrhagic fever leading to a high case/fatality ratio in pigs. In Europe, wild boar are especially affected. This review summarizes the currently available knowledge on ASF in wild boar in Europe. The current ASF panzootic is characterized by self-sustaining cycles of infection in the wild boar population. Spill-over and spill-back events occur from wild boar to domestic pigs and vice versa. The social structure of wild boar populations and the spatial behavior of the animals, a variety of ASF virus (ASFV) transmission mechanisms and persistence in the environment complicate the modeling of the disease. Control measures focus on the detection and removal of wild boar carcasses, in which ASFV can remain infectious for months. Further measures include the reduction in wild boar density and the limitation of wild boar movements through fences. Using these measures, the Czech Republic and Belgium succeeded in eliminating ASF in their territories, while the disease spread in others. So far, no vaccine is available to protect wild boar or domestic pigs reliably against ASF.

African swine fever: Why the situation in Germany is not comparable to that in the Czech Republic or Belgium

After the first occurrence of African swine fever (ASF) in Germany in September 2020, control measures were implemented that resembled those taken in the Czech Republic and Belgium, the only two countries that succeeded in eliminating ASF from their territory so far in the current epidemic. In the present study, the epidemiological course of ASF in the first 6 months since introduction in these three countries is compared. Within 6 months, Germany experienced more cases than the Czech Republic and Belgium. The affected area in Germany, measured using minimal convex polygons, is much larger than the respective areas in the Czech Republic and in Belgium. All cases in the Czech Republic and in Belgium clustered in one single defined area, suggesting point-source introductions, whereas in Germany four distinct spatial clusters were observed, which indicates that multiple incursions had occurred along the border with Poland. While the overall course of the disease was comparable, when individual clusters were considered, the summarized data showed clear differences between the situation in Germany compared to that in the Czech Republic and Belgium. Germany experienced several independent introductions, caused by continuous infection pressure along the border to Poland, while the infection was only introduced on a single occasion each into the Czech Republic and Belgium. These differences may require appropriate adaptation of control measures, in particular concerning fencing along the border.

Research priorities to fill knowledge gaps in wild boar management measures that could improve the control of African swine fever in wild boar populations

The European Commission asked EFSA to provide study designs for the investigation of four research domains (RDs) according to major gaps in knowledge identified by EFSA in a report published in 2019: (RD 1) African swine fever (ASF) epidemiology in wild boar; (RD 2) ASF transmission by vectors; (RD 3) African swine fever virus (ASFV) survival in the environment, and (RD 4) the patterns of seasonality of ASF in wild boar and domestic pigs in the EU. In this Scientific Opinion, the second RD on ASF epidemiology in wild boar is addressed. Twenty-nine research objectives were proposed by the working group and broader ASF expert networks and 23 of these research objectives met a prespecified inclusion criterion. Fourteen of these 23 research objectives met the predefined threshold for selection and so were prioritised based on the following set of criteria: (1) the impact on ASF management; (2) the feasibility or practicality to carry out the study; (3) the potential implementation of study results in practice; (4) a possible short time-frame study (< 1 year); (5) the novelty of the study; and (6) if it was a priority for risk managers. Finally, after further elimination of three of the proposed research objectives due to overlapping scope of studies published during the development of this opinion, 11 research priorities were elaborated into short research proposals, considering the potential impact on ASF management and the period of one year for the research activities.

African Swine Fever and Its Epidemiological Course in Lithuanian Wild Boar

African swine fever (ASF) has been present in Lithuania since 2014. It is mainly the wild boar population that is affected. Currently, little is known about the epidemiological course of ASF in Lithuania. In the present study, ASF surveillance data from 2016-2021 were analyzed. The numbers of samples taken from hunted wild boar and wild boar found dead per year and month were recorded and the prevalence was estimated for each study month and administrative unit. A Bayesian space-time model was used to calculate the temporal trend of the prevalence estimates. In addition, population data were analyzed on a yearly basis. Most samples were investigated in 2016 and 2017 and originated from hunted animals. Prevalence estimates of ASF virus-positive wild boar decreased from May 2019 onwards. Seroprevalence estimates showed a slight decrease at the same time, but they increased again at the end of the study period. A significant decrease in the population density was observed over time. The results of the study show that ASF is still present in the Lithuanian wild boar population. A joint interdisciplinary effort is needed to identify weaknesses in the control of ASF in Lithuania and to combat the disease more successfully.

Clear phylogeographic pattern and genetic structure of wild boar Sus scrofa population in Central and Eastern Europe

The wild boar Sus scrofa is one of the widely spread ungulate species in Europe, yet the origin and genetic structure of the population inhabiting Central and Eastern Europe are not well recognized. We analysed 101 newly obtained sequences of complete mtDNA genomes and 548 D-loop sequences of the species and combined them with previously published data. We identified five phylogenetic clades in Europe with clear phylogeographic pattern. Two of them occurred mainly in western and central part of the continent, while the range of the third clade covered North-Eastern, Central and South-Eastern Europe. The two other clades had rather restricted distribution. In Central Europe, we identified a contact zone of three mtDNA clades. Population genetic structure reflected clear phylogeographic pattern of wild boar in this part of Europe. The contribution of lineages originating from the southern (Dinaric-Balkan) and eastern (northern cost of the Black Sea) areas to the observed phylogeographic pattern of the species in Central and Eastern Europe was larger than those from the regions located in southern France, Iberian, and Italian Peninsulas. The present work was the first mitogenomic analysis conducted in Central and Eastern Europe to study genetic diversity and structure of wild boar population.

African Swine Fever in wild boar: Assessing interventions in South Korea

African Swine Fever (ASF) was detected in South Korean pig farms in September 2019. Currently, ASF occurs mostly in wild boar (Sus scrofa). We describe the ASF dynamics in wild boar in South Korea from October 2019 to October 2020 and use case studies to evidence the advantages and limitations of the control measures applied. During 2019, ASF remained confined in fenced areas of three counties. Since January 2020 however, the ASF management policy changed from fencing with limited disturbance to culling (with more disturbance), and ASF spread east and south. Until 31 October 2020, a total of 775 wild boar ASF cases have been confirmed, affecting 9 counties. Interventions for ASF control in wild boar included silent (trapping) and non-silent (shooting) population control, local and large-scale fencing, and carcass destruction. Pre-ASF wild boar densities were closed to 10 per km² . Biosafety risks arose from the movements of people and vehicles, swill feeding of wild boar, destroying pig herds, handling wild boar during trapping and hunting, and searching for and disposing of carcasses. Despite training efforts, biosafety regulations were sometimes ignored. We observed differences between counties regarding disease control. While interventions apparently succeeded in controlling ASF in one site where geographical features and fast decision making facilitated an early and efficient fencing, and culling was performed silently, biosafety problems and habitat- and management-related delays hindered ASF control in other situations. Given that carcass, destruction faces specific limitations in South Korea, fencing and trapping (under appropriate biosafety conditions) might represent the most effective intervention option.

Modelling the Spatial Distribution of ASF-Positive Wild Boar Carcasses in South Korea Using 2019-2020 National Surveillance Data

Simple Summary

Since African swine fever (ASF) virus in wild boar populations can spill over to domestic pigs, it is crucial to understand the disease determinants in the wild compartment. However, the imperfect detection sensitivity of wild boar surveillance jeopardizes our ability to understand ASF spatial distribution. In this study, we used national surveillance data of ASF in wild boars collected in the Republic of Korea from 2019–2020 to model the spatial distribution of ASF-positive carcasses for two successive study periods associated with different surveillance intensity. The model allowed us to identify disease risk factors in the Republic of Korea, determine the spatial distribution of the risk of ASF, and estimate the sensitivity of surveillance. The outputs of this study are relevant to policy makers for developing and improving risk-based surveillance programs for ASF in wild boars.

Abstract

In September 2019, African swine fever (ASF) was reported in South Korea for the first time. Since then, more than 651 ASF cases in wild boars and 14 farm outbreaks have been notified in the country. Despite the efforts to eradicate ASF among wild boar populations, the number of reported ASF-positive wild boar carcasses have increased recently. The purpose of this study was to characterize the spatial distribution of ASF-positive wild boar carcasses to identify the risk factors associated with the presence and number of ASF-positive wild boar carcasses in the affected areas. Because surveillance efforts have substantially increased in early 2020, we divided the study into two periods (2 October 2019 to 19 January 2020, and 19 January to 28 April 2020) based on the number of reported cases and aggregated the number of reported ASF-positive carcasses into a regular grid of hexagons of 3-km diameter. To account for imperfect detection of positive carcasses, we adjusted spatial zero-inflated Poisson regression models to the number of ASF-positive wild boar carcasses per hexagon. During the first study period, proximity to North Korea was identified as the major risk factor for the presence of African swine fever virus. In addition, there were more positive carcasses reported in affected hexagons with high habitat suitability for wild boars, low heat load index (HLI), and high human density. During the second study period, proximity to an ASF-positive carcass reported during the first period was the only significant risk factor for the presence of ASF-positive carcasses. Additionally, low HLI and elevation were associated with an increased number of ASF-positive carcasses reported in the affected hexagons. Although the proportion of ASF-affected hexagons increased from 0.06 (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.05–0.07) to 0.09 (95% CrI: 0.08–0.10), the probability of reporting at least one positive carcass in ASF-affected hexagons increased from 0.49 (95% CrI: 0.41–0.57) to 0.73 (95% CrI: 0.66–0.81) between the two study periods. These results can be used to further advance risk-based surveillance strategies in the Republic of Korea.

ASF Exit Strategy: Providing cumulative evidence of the absence of African swine fever virus circulation in wild boar populations using standard surveillance measures

EFSA assessed the role of seropositive wild boar in African swine fever (ASF) persistence. Surveillance data from Estonia and Latvia investigated with a generalised equation method demonstrated a significantly slower decline in seroprevalence in adult animals compared with subadults. The seroprevalence in adults, taking more than 24 months to approach zero after the last detection of ASFV circulation, would be a poor indicator to demonstrate the absence of virus circulation. A narrative literature review updated the knowledge on the mortality rate, the duration of protective immunity and maternal antibodies and transmission parameters. In addition, parameters potentially leading to prolonged virus circulation (persistence) in wild boar populations were reviewed. A stochastic explicit model was used to evaluate the dynamics of virus prevalence, seroprevalence and the number of carcasses attributed to ASF. Secondly, the impact of four scenarios on the duration of ASF virus (ASFV) persistence was evaluated with the model, namely a: (1) prolonged, lifelong infectious period, (2) reduction in the case-fatality rate and prolonged transient infectiousness; (3) change in duration of protective immunity and (4) change in the duration of protection from maternal antibodies. Only the lifelong infectious period scenario had an important prolonging effect on the persistence of ASF. Finally, the model tested the performance of different proposed surveillance strategies to provide evidence of the absence of virus circulation (Exit Strategy). A two-phase approach (Screening Phase, Confirmation Phase) was suggested for the Exit Strategy. The accuracy of the Exit Strategy increases with increasing numbers of carcasses collected and tested. The inclusion of active surveillance based on hunting has limited impact on the performance of the Exit Strategy compared with lengthening of the monitoring period. This performance improvement should be reasonably balanced against an unnecessary prolonged 'time free' with only a marginal gain in performance. Recommendations are provided for minimum monitoring periods leading to minimal failure rates of the Exit Strategy. The proposed Exit Strategy would fail with the presence of lifelong infectious wild boar. That said, it should be emphasised that the existence of such animals is speculative, based on current knowledge.

A scoping review of African swine fever virus spread between domestic and free-living pigs

Since 2007, African swine fever virus (ASFV) has spread to countries in Europe, Asia and Oceania and has caused devastating impacts on pigs and the pork industry. Transmission can be direct or indirect, and epidemiologic scenarios have been described in which spread occurs between free-living and domestic pigs. The purpose of this scoping review was to identify primary research in which authors made statements to support ASFV transmission between free-living and domestic pigs and assess the circumstances in which transmission events occurred. A search was conducted in five bibliographic databases and the grey literature. Two reviewers (from a team of ten) independently screened each record and charted data (demographics of the pig populations, their husbandry [domestic pigs] and habitat [free-living pigs], the spatial and temporal distribution of ASF, the occurrence or burden of ASF in the populations, and whether ticks were present in the geographic range of the pig populations). Data synthesis included statistics and a narrative summary. From 1,349 records screened, data were charted from 46 individual studies published from 1985 to 2020. Outbreak investigations revealed that whilst poor biosecurity of domestic pig operations was often reported, direct contact resulting in transmission between free-living and domestic pigs was rarely reported. Studies in which quantitative associations were made generally found that spread within populations was more important than spread between populations, although this was not always the case, particularly when domestic pigs were free-ranging. We conclude that there is limited evidence that transmission of ASFV between free-living and domestic pigs is an important feature of ASF epidemiology, especially in the current ASF epidemic in Europe and the Russian Federation. If ASFV elimination cannot be achieved in free-living pigs, compartmentalization of domestic pig populations from free-living populations via biosecurity strategies could be used to support trade of domestic pigs.

Application of the World Café method to discuss the efficiency of African swine fever control strategies in European wild boar (Sus scrofa) populations

In the current epidemic of African swine fever (ASF) in Europe, the maintenance and spread of the disease among wild boar populations remains the most important epidemiological challenge. Affected and at-risk countries have addressed this situation using a diversity of wild boar management methods with varying levels of success. The methods applied range from conventional animal disease intervention measures (zoning, stakeholder awareness campaigns, increased surveillance and biosecurity measures) to measures aimed at reducing wild boar population movements (fencing and baiting/feeding) or population numbers (intensive hunting). To assess the perceived efficiency and acceptance of such measures in the context of a focal introduction of ASF, the authors organised a participatory workshop inviting experts from the fields of wildlife management, wild boar ecology, sociology, epidemiology and animal disease management to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of various control approaches. The discussions between professionals from different countries took place using the World Café method. This paper documents the World Café method as a tool for increasing the level of participation in multi-stakeholder group discussions, and describes the outputs of the workshop pertaining to the control measures. In summary, the World Café method was perceived as an efficient tool for quickly grasping comprehensive perspectives from the professionals involved in managing ASF and wild boar populations, while promoting engagement in multi-disciplinary discussions. The exercise achieved a good overview of the perceived efficiency and applicability of the different control methods and generated useful recommendations for ASF control in wild boar populations in Europe.