The effect of shocks to GDP on employment in SADC member states during COVID-19 using a Bayesian hierarchical model

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the South African tobacco and alcohol industries: Experiences from British American Tobacco and Distell Group Limited

South Africa declared a State of National Disaster due to the COVID-19 pandemic, instituting a nationwide lockdown on 26 March 2020. Sale of goods and services classified as non-essential, such as tobacco and liquor, were prohibited, leading to widespread concerns about viability, job losses and investment in these industries. The study highlighted the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on the South African alcohol and tobacco industries, taking the Johannesburg Stock Exchange-listed British American Tobacco (BTI) and Distell Group Limited (DGH) as cases. The Chow Test was utilised to determine the presence of a structural break on the BTI and DGH share prices on both the pronouncement and enactment days of the COVID-19 lockdown. Furthermore, Threshold Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (TGARCH) (1,1) was also used to test for the effects of the COVID-19 lockdown. The sample data used was daily closing share prices from 9 May 2019 to 9 May 2020, from Google Finance. The results show a structural break on the share prices on the enactment of the 26 March 2020, COVID-19 lockdown. Furthermore, the lockdown had a negative effect on the share prices of BTI and DGH. The study concludes that the COVID-19 lockdown will have long-lasting impacts on the ability of the industries to attract financing for recovery and expansion, and existing shareholders will experience reduced earnings, if any. Policy makers should promote investment by increasing interest rates, promoting local demand and supply, and provide business support to mitigate job losses.

Fiscal sustainability in Africa: Accelerating the post-COVID-19 recovery through improved public finances

The article examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economies in Africa through the application of a novel Debt, Investment and Growth model with a segmented Labor market (DIG-Labor). The pandemic is modeled via supply shock that disrupts economic activities in countries in Africa, followed by effects on household consumption behavior and welfare, and business investment decisions. The DIG-Labor model is calibrated to account for informality, which is a key characteristic of economies in Africa. We find that, in the absence of appropriate remedial measures, the COVID-19 pandemic reduces employment in the formal and informal sectors and scales back consumption for savers and non-savers, with the reduction in consumption being more pronounced for savers. These contractions lead to an economic recession in Africa and widen the fiscal and current account deficits, among others. The effects of fiscal stimulus packages in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and various financing mechanisms are also examined. A key finding is that various policy responses to the emerging COVID-19 induced macroeconomic imbalances have diverse implications, which should be carefully examined to mitigate the negative consequences while maximizing the opportunities for a swift, stronger and more inclusive economic recovery.

COVID-19 Induced Economic Slowdown and Mental Health Issues

The COVID-19 pandemic has pressed a pause button on global economic development, and induced significant mental health problems. In order to demonstrate the progressed relationship between the pandemic, economic slowdown, and mental health burden, we overviewed the global-level gross domestic product changes and mental problems variation since the outbreak of COVID-19, and reviewed comprehensively the specific sectors influenced by the pandemic, including international trade, worldwide travel, education system, healthcare system, and individual employment. We hope to provide timely evidence to help with the promotion of policymakers’ effective strategies in mitigating economic losses induced by the pandemic; we suggest different governments or policy makers in different countries to share information and experience in dealing with COVID-19-induced economic slowdown and promote COVID-19 vaccine popularization plan to protect every individual worldwide against the coronavirus essentially; and we appeal international information share and collaboration to minimize stigmatization related to adverse mental consequences of COVID-19 and to increase mental health wellbeings of people all over the world.