Accuracy of clinician gestalt in diagnosing appendicitis in children presenting to the emergency department

Study of pediatric appendicitis scores and management strategies: A prospective observational feasibility study

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to investigate the feasibility of prospectively validating multiple clinical prediction scores (CPSs) for pediatric appendicitis in an Australian pediatric emergency department (ED).

METHODS

A literature search was conducted to identify potential CPSs and a single-center prospective observational feasibility study was performed between November 2022 and May 2023 to evaluate the performance of identified CPSs. Children 5-15 years presenting with acute right-sided or generalized abdominal pain and clinician suspicion of appendicitis were included. CPSs were calculated by the study team from prospectively clinician-collected data and/or review of medical records. Accuracy of CPSs were assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and proportions correctly identifiable as either low-risk or high-risk with the best performing CPS compared to clinician gestalt. Final diagnosis of appendicitis was confirmed on histopathology or by telephone/email follow-up for those discharged directly from ED.

RESULTS

Thirty CPSs were identified in the literature search and 481 patients were enrolled in the study. A total of 150 (31.2%) patients underwent appendectomy with three (2.0%) having a normal appendix on histopathology. All identified CPSs were calculable for at least 50% of the patient cohort. The pediatric Appendicitis Risk Calculator for pediatric EDs (pARC-ED; n = 317) was the best performing CPS with AUC 0.90 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.86-0.94) and specificity 99.0% (95% CI 96.4%-99.7%) in diagnosing high-risk cases and a misclassification rate of 4.5% for low-risk cases.

CONCLUSIONS

The study identified 30 CPSs that could be validated in a majority of patients to compare their ability to assess risk of pediatric appendicitis. The pARC-ED had the highest predictive accuracy and can potentially assist in risk stratification of children with suspected appendicitis in pediatric EDs. A multicenter study is now under way to evaluate the potential of these CPSs in a broader range of EDs to aid clinical decision making in more varied settings.

Diagnostic accuracy of doctors at the emergency department and radiologists in differentiating between complicated and uncomplicated acute appendicitis

PURPOSE

To determine the accuracy of final judgements of doctors at the emergency department (ED) and radiologists to differentiate between complicated and uncomplicated acute appendicitis, because these have different treatment options.

METHODS

This prospective, multicenter study included adult patients with imaging-confirmed acute appendicitis, operated with intention to appendectomy. Both doctors at ED and radiologists assessed appendicitis severity as a final judgement of "uncomplicated" or "complicated" appendicitis. Doctors at ED integrated clinical, laboratory, and imaging findings. Radiologists relied solely on imaging findings. Outcomes were accuracy of these judgements for diagnosis of complicated appendicitis compared to the reference standard by an adjudication committee.

RESULTS

After imaging, 1070 patients with confirmed acute appendicitis were included. Doctors at ED accurately labelled 656 of 701 (93.6%) patients with true uncomplicated appendicitis as uncomplicated, and 163 of 369 (44.2%) patients with true complicated appendicitis were labelled as complicated. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) for complicated appendicitis were 44.2%, 93.6%, and 78.4% and 76.1%, respectively. Comparable accuracy was found for the radiologist's assessment in 941 patients, with true positive rates of 92.2% (581 of 630 patients) for uncomplicated appendicitis and 46.6% (145 of 311 patients) for complicated appendicitis.

CONCLUSION

More than half of all patients with true complicated appendicitis is incorrectly classified as uncomplicated appendicitis according to the judgements of doctors at ED, integrating clinical, laboratory, and imaging results, and of radiologists assessing diagnostic imaging. These judgements are thereby not sufficiently reliable in ruling out complicated appendicitis.

Predictive value of clinician impression for readmission and postdischarge mortality among neonates and young children in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Monrovia, Liberia

BACKGROUND

There are no validated clinical decision aids to identify neonates and young children at risk of hospital readmission or postdischarge mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, leaving the decision to discharge a child to a clinician's impression. Our objective was to determine the precision of clinician impression to identify neonates and young children at risk for readmission and postdischarge mortality.

METHODS

We conducted a survey study nested in a prospective observational cohort of neonates and children aged 1-59 months followed 60 days after hospital discharge from Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania or John F. Kennedy Medical Center in Monrovia, Liberia. Clinicians who discharged each enrolled patient were surveyed to determine their perceived probability of the patient's risk of 60-day hospital readmission or postdischarge mortality. We calculated the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) to determine the precision of clinician impression for both outcomes.

RESULTS

Of 4247 discharged patients, 3896 (91.7%) had available clinician surveys and 3847 (98.7%) had 60-day outcomes available: 187 (4.8%) were readmitted and 120 (3.1%) died within 60 days of hospital discharge. Clinician impression had poor precision in identifying neonates and young children at risk of hospital readmission (AUPRC: 0.06, 95% CI: 0.04 to 0.08) and postdischarge mortality (AUPRC: 0.05, 95% CI: 0.03 to 0.08). Patients for whom clinicians attributed inability to pay for future medical treatment as the reason for risk for unplanned hospital readmission had 4.76 times the odds hospital readmission (95% CI: 1.31 to 17.25, p=0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Given the poor precision of clinician impression alone to identify neonates and young children at risk of hospital readmission and postdischarge mortality, validated clinical decision aids are needed to aid in the identification of young children at risk for these outcomes.

The utility of sonographic signs to diagnose simple and complicated appendicitis in children

BACKGROUND

Acute appendicitis is classified into simple (SA) and complicated (CA). Ultrasound scans (USS) can be useful in clinically equivocal cases, by visualising primary and secondary signs. This study explores the utility of sonographic signs to diagnose and differentiate appendicitis in children.

METHODS

Single-centre retrospective cohort study over a 2-year period. Consecutive USS for suspected appendicitis were included; sonographic signs were extracted from standardised institutional worksheets. USS results were compared with pre-defined intraoperative criteria for SA and CA, confirmed with histological analysis. Data are reported as median [interquartile range], percentages (number), area under the curve (AUC), conventional diagnostic formulae and adjusted odds ratios following multiple logistic regression (p < 0.05 considered significant).

RESULTS

A total of 934 USS were included, with median age 10.7 [8.0-13.4] years, majority were female (54%). One quarter (n = 226) had SA, 12% (n = 113) had CA, 61% (n = 571) had no appendectomy and 3% (n = 24) had negative appendicectomy. Appendix visualisation rate on USS was 61% (n = 569), with 62% (n = 580) having a conclusive report. Sonographic signs suggesting appendicitis included an appendiceal diameter > 7 mm (AUC 0.92, [95% CI: 0.90-0.94]), an appendicolith (p = 0.003), hyperaemia (p = 0.001), non-compressibility (p = 0.029) and no luminal gas (p = 0.004). Secondary sonographic signs included probe tenderness (p < 0.001) and peri-appendiceal echogenic fat (p < 0.001). Sonographic signs suggesting CA over SA comprised a diameter > 10.1 mm (AUC 0.63, [95% CI: 0.57-0.69]), an appendicolith (p = 0.003) and peri-appendiceal fluid (p = 0.004).

CONCLUSION

Presence of specific sonographic signs can aid diagnosis and differentiation of simple and complicated appendicitis in children.

Decision Making: Healthy Heuristics and Betraying Biases

Critical care settings are unpredictable, dynamic environments where clinicians face high decision density in suboptimal conditions (stress, time constraints, competing priorities). Experts have described two systems of human decision making: one fast and intuitive; the other slow and methodical. Heuristics, or mental shortcuts, a key feature of intuitive reasoning, are often accurate, applied instinctively, and essential for efficient diagnostic decision making. Heuristics are also prone to failures, or cognitive biases, which can lead to diagnostic errors. A variety of strategies have been proposed to mitigate biases; however, current understanding of such interventions to optimize diagnostic safety is still incomplete.

Diagnostic Performance of Emergency Physician Gestalt for Predicting Acute Appendicitis in Patients Age 5 to 20 Years

OBJECTIVES

Pediatric appendicitis remains a challenging diagnosis in the emergency department (ED). Available risk prediction algorithms may contribute to excessive ED imaging studies. Incorporation of physician gestalt assessment could help refine predictive tools and improve diagnostic imaging decisions.

METHODS

This study was a subanalysis of a parent study that prospectively enrolled patients ages 5 to 20.9 years with a chief complaint of abdominal pain presenting to 11 community EDs within an integrated delivery system between October 1, 2016, and September 30, 2018. Prior to diagnostic imaging, attending emergency physicians enrolled patients with ≤5 days of right-sided or diffuse abdominal pain using a Web-based application embedded in the electronic health record. Predicted risk (gestalt) of acute appendicitis was prospectively entered using a sliding scale from 1% to 100%. As a planned secondary analysis, we assessed the performance of gestalt via c-statistics of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves; tested associations between gestalt performance and patient, physician, and facility characteristics; and examined clinical characteristics affecting gestalt estimates.

RESULTS

Of 3,426 patients, 334 (9.8%) had confirmed appendicitis. Physician gestalt had excellent ROC curve characteristics (c-statistic = 0.83, 95% confidence interval = 0.81 to 0.85), performing particularly well in the low-risk strata (appendicitis rate = 1.1% in gestalt 1%-10% range, negative predictive value of 98.9% for appendicitis diagnosis). Physicians with ≥5 years since medical school graduation demonstrated improved gestalt performance over those with less experience (p = 0.007). All clinical characteristics tested, except pain <24 hours, were significantly associated with physician gestalt value (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Physician gestalt for acute appendicitis diagnosis performed well, especially in low-risk patients and when employed by experienced physicians.