Population viability analysis of small population: a case study for Asian elephant in China

Improving landscape connectivity through habitat restoration: application for Asian elephant conservation in Xishuangbanna Prefecture, China

Habitat restoration is an effective method for improving landscape connectivity, which can reduce habitat fragmentation. Maintaining landscape connectivity could promote connections between habitat, which is extremely essential to preserve gene flow and population viability. This study proposes a methodological framework to analyze landscape connectivity for Asian elephant habitat conservation, aiming to provide practical options for reducing habitat fragmentation and improving habitat connectivity. Our approach involved combining a species distribution model using MaxEnt and landscape functional connectivity models using graph theory to assess the impact on connectivity improvement via farmland/plantation restoration as habitat. The results showed that: (1) there were 119 suitable habitat patches of Asian elephant covering a total area of 1952.41 km2 . (2) The connectivity between habitats improved significantly after vegetation restoration and the gain first decreased and then increased with the increase of dispersal distance. (3) The first few new habitat patches that were identified played an important role in improving connectivity, and the variation rate of connectivity gradually leveled off as the number of new habitats increased. (4) Prioritization of the 25 best new habitat patches increased connectivity from 0.54% to 5.59% as the dispersal distance increased and mainly was located between two Asian elephant distribution regions and two components. Establishment of new habitat patches was effective for improving or restoring connectivity. Our findings can be used as guidance for improving the studied fragmented Asian elephant habitats, and they can also be used as a reference for the habitat restoration of other endangered species heavily affected by habitat fragmentation.

Addressing the impact of canine distemper spreading on an isolated tiger population in northeast Asia

The continuation of the isolated Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) population living along the China-Russia border is facing serious challenges due to factors such as its small size (including 38 individuals) and canine distemper virus (CDV). We use a population viability analysis metamodel, which consists of a traditional individual-based demographic model linked to an epidemiological model, to assess options for controlling the impact of negative factors through domestic dog management in protected areas, increasing connectivity to the neighboring large population (including more than 400 individuals), and habitat expansion. Without intervention, under inbreeding depression of 3.14, 6.29, and 12.26 lethal equivalents, our metamodel predicted the extinction within 100 years is 64.4%, 90.6%, and 99.8%, respectively. In addition, the simulation results showed that dog management or habitat expansion independently will not ensure tiger population viability for the next 100 years, and connectivity to the neighboring population would only keep the population size from rapidly declining. However, when the above three conservation scenarios are combined, even at the highest level of 12.26 lethal equivalents inbreeding depression, population size will not decline and the probability of extinction will be <5.8%. Our findings highlight that protecting the Amur tiger necessitates a multifaceted synergistic effort. Our key management recommendations for this population underline the importance of reducing CDV threats and expanding tiger occupancy to its former range in China, but re-establishing habitat connectivity to the neighboring population is an important long-term objective.

Contributions of distemper control and habitat expansion to the Amur leopard viability

The Amur leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis) is a critically endangered top predator that struggles on the brink of extinction due to threats such as canine distemper virus (CDV), habitat loss, and inbreeding depression. Here we develop a viability analysis metamodel that combines a traditional individual-based demographic model with an epidemiological model to assess the benefits of alternative population management actions in response to multiple distinct threats. Our results showed an extinction risk of 10.3%-99.9% if no management actions were taken over 100 years under different levels of inbreeding depression. Reducing the risk of CDV infection in Amur leopards through the low-coverage vaccination of leopards and the management of sympatric domestic dogs could effectively improve the survival probability of the leopard population, and with habitat expansion added to these management measures, the population expanded further. Our findings highlight that protecting the Amur leopard necessitates a multifaceted synergistic effort, and controlling multiple threats together may significantly escalate overall viability of a species, especially for small-isolated threatened population. More broadly, our modeling framework could offer critical perspectives and scientific support for conservation planning, as well as specific adaptive management actions for endangered species around the world.

In the absence of management strategies, canine distemper virus threatens the future existence of the endangered Amur leopard.

The recent Asian elephant range expansion in Yunnan, China, is associated with climate change and enforced protection efforts in human-dominated landscapes

Recently, the northward movement of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in Yunnan, China, has attracted international attention. Climate change or human disturbances have been proposed to be the key drivers, but these hypotheses have not been rigorously tested. In this study, we quantified the relationship between climate change and human impacts on the recent range expansion of Asian elephants in southwest China. We found that the first observation probability of this species in a new place during 1959–2021 had a significant and positive association with change in air temperature and human density, resulting in a movement toward a high-latitude region with a warmer climate and higher human density; however, its association with precipitation was scale-dependent in time: positive or negative during the past 10 or 5 years, respectively. Under the enforced protection policy, human-dominated areas became preferred habitats for elephants. Our results indicate that climate change and enforced protection efforts in human-dominated landscapes in the last few decades are significant drivers of the recent range expansion of Asian elephants in Yunnan, China. It is necessary to expand the current protected areas or habitat corridors toward the north or set up new reserves in the north and set up barriers between human settlements and elephant habitats to facilitate elephant movements and minimize human-elephant conflicts under accelerated global change.

Elephant Endotheliotropic Herpesvirus 1, 4 and 5 in China: Occurrence in Multiple Sample Types and Implications for Wild and Captive Population Surveillance

Elephant endotheliotropic herpesviruses (EEHVs) are important causes of death in both captive and wild Asian elephants (Elephas maximus). Nothing is known about the prevalence of EEHVs in wild or domestic elephants in China. To determine if EEHVs are present in elephants in China, 126 wild elephants from three populations and 202 captive individuals from zoos (n = 155) and the Wild Elephant Valley (n = 47) were screened using semi-nested polymerase chain reaction assays with EEHV-redundant and EEHV1/4/5-specific primers. EEHV1B and EEHV4 were detected in samples from both wild (EEHV1B:8/126; EEHV4:2/126) and captive (EEHV1B:5/155; EEHV4:9/155) elephants, while EEHV1A (six cases) and EEHV5 (one case) were only present in the captive elephants from the Wild Elephant Valley. EEHV1 was detected in blood and trunk and oral swabs; EEHV4 was detected in trunk and oral swabs as well as feces; EEHV5 was found in trunk and oral swabs. No significant age or sex association with EEHV1A, EEHV1B, or EEHV5 positivity was observed. An age association with EEHV4 positivity was found, with all unweaned elephants being EEHV4 positive, but an association with the sex of the elephant was not observed. These findings represent the first documentation of EEHV presence in captive and wild elephants in China. These findings also document EEHV1B and EEHV4 shedding in feces and demonstrate the utility of fecal screening as a tool for investigating EEHV4 infection in wild populations of elephants. It is recommended that EEHV testing be included in surveillance programs for captive and wild elephants in China.

Anthropogenic pressures increase extinction risk of an isolated Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) population in southwestern China, as revealed by a combination of molecular- and landscape-scale approaches

Identification of the effect of anthropogenic threats on ecosystem is crucial. We used molecular tools and remote sensing to evaluate the population status of an isolated Asian elephant population in southwestern China in response to changes in habitat suitability between 1989 and 2019. A total of 22 unique genotypes were identified from 117 dung samples collected between March and June 2018 using microsatellite DNA analysis, including 13 males and 9 females. Based on the size of fecal boli, 1 animal was a juvenile, 9 were subadults, and 12 were adults, indicating that recruitment was limited. The effective population size was small (15.3) but there was no signature of a recent population bottleneck. We observed a low genetic diversity (H_e = 0.46 ± 0.05) and a high level of inbreeding (F_is of 0.43 ± 0.11), suggesting low population viability and high risk of extinction. In total, these elephants lost nearly two thirds (62%) of their habitat in 3 decades. The expansion of agriculture and rubber plantations followed by an increase in human settlements after 1989 increased the isolation of this population. We recommend that resettlement of 800 inhabitants of 2 villages and the abandonment of associated farmland and rubber plantations would make an additional 20 km² of suitable habitat available. This could allow a population increase of 14 elephants, possibly by translocating individuals from elsewhere in China. Our findings can be applied to the management and conservation of other fragmented populations in China or in other range countries of Asian elephants.