Long-term liver cancer incidence and mortality trends in the Changning District of Shanghai, China

Liver Cancer Mortality Disparities at a Fine Scale Among Subpopulations in China: Nationwide Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Trends

Background

China has the highest number of liver cancers worldwide, and liver cancer is at the forefront of all cancers in China. However, current research on liver cancer in China primarily relies on extrapolated data or relatively lagging data, with limited focus on subregions and specific population groups.

Objective

The purpose of this study is to identify geographic disparities in liver cancer by exploring the spatial and temporal trends of liver cancer mortality and the years of life lost (YLL) caused by it within distinct geographical regions, climate zones, and population groups in China.

Methods

Data from the National Death Surveillance System between 2013 and 2020 were used to calculate the age-standardized mortality rate of liver cancer (LASMR) and YLL from liver cancer in China. The spatial distribution and temporal trends of liver cancer were analyzed in subgroups by sex, age, region, and climate classification. Estimated annual percentage change was used to describe liver cancer trends in various regions, and partial correlation was applied to explore associations between LASMR and latitude.

Results

In China, the average LASMR decreased from 28.79 in 2013 to 26.38 per 100,000 in 2020 among men and 11.09 to 9.83 per 100,000 among women. This decline in mortality was consistent across all age groups. Geographically, Guangxi had the highest LASMR for men in China, with a rate of 50.15 per 100,000, while for women, it was Heilongjiang, with a rate of 16.64 per 100,000. Within these regions, the LASMR among men in most parts of Guangxi ranged from 32.32 to 74.98 per 100,000, whereas the LASMR among women in the majority of Heilongjiang ranged from 13.72 to 21.86 per 100,000. The trend of LASMR varied among regions. For both men and women, Guizhou showed an increasing trend in LASMR from 2013 to 2020, with estimated annual percentage changes ranging from 10.05% to 29.07% and from 10.09% to 21.71%, respectively. Both men and women observed an increase in LASMR with increasing latitude below the 40th parallel. However, overall, LASMR in men was positively correlated with latitude (R=0.225; P<.001), while in women, it showed a negative correlation (R=0.083; P=.04). High LASMR areas among men aligned with subtropical zones, like Cwa and Cfa. The age group 65 years and older, the southern region, and the Cwa climate zone had the highest YLL rates at 4850.50, 495.50, and 440.17 per 100,000, respectively. However, the overall trends in these groups showed a decline over the period.

Conclusions

Despite the declining overall trend of liver cancer in China, there are still marked disparities between regions and populations. Future prevention and control should focus on high-risk regions and populations to further reduce the burden of liver cancer in China.

Mortality Burden of Liver Cancer in China: An Observational Study From 2008 to 2020

Background and Aims

China accounts for nearly half of liver cancer deaths globally. A better understanding of the current liver cancer mortality will be helpful to establishing priorities for intervention and to decreasing the disease burden of liver cancer. The study aimed to explore and predict the mortality burden of liver cancer in China.

Methods

Data were extracted from the Disease Surveillance Point system of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention from 2008 to 2020. Crude and age-standardized liver cancer mortality rates were reported by sex, urban or rural residence, and region. Trends in liver cancer mortality rates from 2008 to 2020 were estimated as average annual percentage change (AAPC). The changing trend of live cancer mortality in the future is also predicted.

Results

In 2020, the crude mortality of liver cancer was 25.57/100,000, and males and people lived in rural areas had higher age-standardized liver cancer mortality rates than females and people lived in people in urban areas. Crude mortality and age-standardized mortality rates in southwest provinces (Guangxi, Sichuan, Tibet) and in a northeast province (Heilongjiang) were higher than that in other provinces, and age-specific mortality rates increased with age. From 2008 to 2020, liver cancer mortality rates decreased, but people under 50 years of age had a higher AAPC than those over 50 years of age, possibly because of the adoption of hepatitis B virus vaccination in newborns and children. Furthermore, the mortality of liver cancer in 2021-2030 is predicted to have a downward trend.

Conclusions

Liver cancer mortality rates declined in China from 2008 to 2020. Future interventions to control liver cancer mortality need to focus on people of male sex, older age, and living in rural areas or less developed provinces.

Trends in Mortality of Cirrhosis in China: An Analysis of the China Death Surveillance Database from 2008 to 2020

Background and Aims

China accounts for 14.9% of total cirrhosis deaths worldwide. A detailed and comprehensive understanding of the contemporary status of cirrhosis mortality in China is crucial for establishing strategies for intervention and decreasing the disease burden of cirrhosis worldwide. The study aimed to report the cirrhosis mortality rates in our whole country or province over time.

Methods

Mortality data from 2008 to 2020 were retrieved from the Disease Surveillance Point System (DSPs) of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The crude mortality rate and age-standardized mortality rate of patients with cirrhosis were stratified by sex, residential location, and region. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) in cirrhosis mortality rates from 2008 to 2020 was also calculated.

Results

The crude mortality rate of cirrhosis was 4.57/100,000 people in 2020. Compared with females and individuals living in urban areas, males and people living in rural areas had greater age-standardized mortality. The crude mortality rate and age-standardized mortality rate in provinces in Southwest China (Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Qinghai) were greater than those in other provinces. Moreover, with increasing age, the age-specific mortality rate increased significantly. From 2008 to 2020, the mortality rate of cirrhosis in China decreased except for in males aged 50-59 years, females aged 45-49 years and females aged 80-84 years.

Conclusions

The mortality rate of patients with cirrhosis in China decreased from 2008 to 2020. In the future, interventions of cirrhosis mortality control need to pay more attention to all males, females aged 45-49 and 80-84 years, and people living in rural areas and in provinces in Southwest China.

Relative survival analysis of gynecological cancers in an urban district of Shanghai during 2002–2013

OBJECTIVE

Appraisal of cancer survival is essential for cancer control, but studies related to gynecological cancer are scarce. Using cancer registration data, we conducted an in-depth survival analysis of cervical, uterine corpus, and ovarian cancers in an urban district of Shanghai during 2002-2013.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The follow-up data of gynecological cancer from the Changning District of Shanghai, China, were used to estimate the 1-5-year observed survival rate (OSR) and relative survival rate (RSR) by time periods and age groups during 2002-2013. Age-standardized relative survival rates estimated by the international cancer survival standards were calculated during 2002-2013 to describe the prognosis of cervical, uterine corpus, and ovarian cancers among women in the district.

RESULTS

In total, 1307 gynecological cancer cases were included in the survival analysis in the district during 2002-2013. Among gynecological cancers, the 5-year OSRs and RSRs of uterine corpus cancer were highest (5-year OSR 84.40%, 5-year RSR 87.67%), followed by those of cervical cancer (5-year OSR 73.58%, 5-year RSR 75.91%), and those of ovarian cancer (5-year OSR 53.89%, 5-year RSR 55.90%). After age adjustment, the 5-year relative survival rates of three gynecological cancers were 71.23%, 80.11%, and 43.27%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The 5-year relative survival rate did not show a systematic temporal trend in cervical cancer, uterine cancer, or ovarian cancer. The prognosis in elderly patients was not optimistic, and this needs a more advanced strategy for early diagnosis and treatment. The age structure of gynecological cancer patients in the district tended to be younger than the standardized age, which implies that more attention to the guidance and health education for the younger generation is needed.

Incidence, Mortality Features and Lifetime Risk Estimation of Digestive Tract Cancers in an Urban District of Shanghai, China

Digestive tract cancers are the common cause of cancer deaths in both China and worldwide. This study aimed to describe the burden, recent trends and lifetime risks in the incidence and mortality of digestive tract cancers in an urban district of Shanghai, China. Our study extracted data on stomach, colon, rectum and liver cancers diagnosed in Changning District between 2010 and 2019 from the Shanghai Cancer Registry. We calculated age-standardized incidence and mortality rates, the risks of developing and dying from cancer, and the estimated annual percent changes. Between 2010 and 2019, 8619 new cases and 5775 deaths were registered with digestive tract cancers in the district. The age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of liver cancer decreased steadily, whereas the ASIRs of stomach, colon and rectum cancers remained stable from 2010 to 2019. The age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) of stomach and liver cancers showed significant declining changes from 2010 to 2019 in both sexes, but that of colon and rectum cancers remained stable during the entire period. The risks of developing and dying from digestive tract cancers were substantially higher in men than women. The burden of digestive tract cancer and its disparities between sex and age group remain major public health challenges in urban Shanghai. To reduce the burden of digestive tract cancers, the government and researchers should develop and promote a healthy diet, organize a screening, and reduce the prevalence of smoking, alcohol drinking, and hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus infections.

Trends and Age-Period-Cohort Effects on the Prevalence, Incidence and Mortality of Hepatocellular Carcinoma from 2008 to 2017 in Tianjin, China

Objectives: China is the country most afflicted by hepatocellular carcinoma in the world. However, little is known about the epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma in China. This study aimed to examine the trends of the prevalence, incidence, and mortality of hepatocellular carcinoma in China, and to investigate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the epidemiological trend. Methods: The data were obtained from the Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance claims database (2003-2017) in Tianjin, China, which covers 5.95 million individuals. The average annual percentage change of the prevalence, incidence, and mortality were accessed using joinpoint regression. Age-period-cohort models were produced to quantify the effects of age, period, and cohort. Results: The hepatocellular carcinoma prevalence rate increased by 5.13% annually from 20.12/100,000 in 2008 to 30.49/100,000 in 2017, and the incidence rate was almost unchanged, from 13.91/100,000 in 2008 to 14.09/100,000 in 2017, but mortality decreased by 1.80% annually from 8.18/100,000 in 2008 to 7.34/100,000 in 2017. The age-period-cohort analysis revealed that the prevalence rate was remarkably increased from age 25, peaked in age 60, and decreased at age 70 and over. In the period index, the prevalence rate increased gradually from 2008 to 2016, and decreased a little in 2017. In the cohort index, the prevalence rate decreased approximately linearly from the 1925 cohort to the 1990 cohort. The result for the incidence was similar to the prevalence. The mortality rate increased approximately linearly from age 45 to 85, decreased from the 1925 cohort to the 1990 cohort, but it changed a little with the change of period. Conclusions: The findings of this study could inform the necessity of conducting earlier screening for high-risk individuals and improving the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma, which may also help to predict future changes in hepatocellular carcinoma epidemiology.

Liver cancer mortality over six decades in an epidemic area: what we have learned

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Liver cancer is one of the most dominant malignant tumors in the world. The trends of liver cancer mortality over the past six decades have been tracked in the epidemic region of Qidong, China. Using epidemiological tools, we explore the dynamic changes in age-standardized rates to characterize important aspects of liver cancer etiology and prevention.

METHODS

Mortality data of liver cancer in Qidong from 1958 to 1971 (death retrospective survey) and from 1972 to 2017 (cancer registration) were tabulated for the crude rate (CR), and age-standardized rate and age-birth cohorts. The average annual percentage change was calculated by the Joinpoint Regression Program.

RESULTS

The natural death rate during 1958-2017 decreased from 9‰ to 5.4‰ and then increased to 8‰ as the population aged; cancer mortality rates rose continuously from 57/105 to 240/105. Liver cancer mortality increased from 20/105 to 80/105, and then dropped to less than 52/105 in 2017. Liver cancer deaths in 1972-2017 accounted for 30.53% of all cancers, with a CR of 60.48/105, age-standardized rate China (ASRC) of 34.78/105, and ASRW (world) of 45.71/105. Other key features were the CR for males and females of 91.86/105 and 29.92/105, respectively, with a sex ratio of 3.07:1. Period analysis showed that the ASRs for mortality of the age groups under 54 years old had a significant decreasing trend. Importantly, birth cohort analysis showed that the mortality rate of liver cancer in 40-44, 35-39, 30-34, 25-29, 20-24, 15-19 years cohort decreased considerably, but the rates in 70-74, and 75+ increased.

CONCLUSIONS

The crude mortality rate of liver cancer in Qidong has experienced trends from lower to higher levels, and from continued increase at a high plateau to most recently a gradual decline, and a change greatest in younger people. Many years of comprehensive prevention and intervention measures have influenced the decline of the liver cancer epidemic in this area. The reduction of intake levels of aflatoxin might be one of the most significant factors as evidenced by the dramatic decline of exposure biomarkers in this population during the past three decades.