Distinct eGFR trajectories are associated with risk of myocardial infarction in people with diabetes or prediabetes

Kidney function trajectories, associated factors, and outcomes in multiethnic Asian patients with type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND

We examined the trajectory of estimated glomerular filtrate rate (eGFR), associated risk factors, and its relationship with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) among a multiethnic patient population with type 2 diabetes in Singapore.

METHODS

A follow-up study included 62 080 individuals with type 2 diabetes aged ≥18 years in a multi-institutional SingHealth Diabetes Registry between 2013 and 2019. eGFR trajectories were analyzed using latent class linear mixed models. Factors associated with eGFR trajectories were evaluated using multinomial logistic regression. The association of eGFR trajectories with ESKD was assessed via competing risk models.

RESULTS

Trajectory of kidney function, determined by eGFR, was nonlinear. The trajectory pattern was classified as stable initially then gradual decline (75%), progressive decline (21.9%), and rapid decline (3.1%). Younger age, female sex, Malay ethnicity, lower-income housing type, current smoking, higher glycated hemoglobin, lower low-density lipoprotein, higher triglyceride, uncontrolled blood pressure, albuminuria, cardiovascular disease, hypertension, and higher eGFR levels each were associated with progressive or rapid decline. Compared with the trajectory of stable initially then gradual eGFR decline, progressive decline increased the hazard of ESKD by 6.14-fold (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.96-7.61)) and rapid decline by 82.55 folds (95% CI: 55.90-121.89).

CONCLUSIONS

Three nonlinear trajectory classes of kidney function were identified among multiethnic individuals with type 2 diabetes in Singapore. About one in four individuals had a progressive or rapid decline in eGFR. Our results suggest that eGFR trajectories are correlated with multiple social and modifiable risk factors and inform the risk of ESKD.

Trajectories of kidney function and risk of mortality

BACKGROUND

We aimed to identify patterns within the rate of kidney function decline, determinants of these patterns and their association with all-cause mortality risk in the general population.

METHODS

Participants aged ≥ 45 years with at least one assessment of creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) taken between 1997 and 2018 were selected from a population-based cohort study. Analyses were performed using several distinct latent class trajectory modelling methods. Cumulative incidences were calculated with 45 years of age as the starting point.

RESULTS

In 12 062 participants (85 922 eGFR assessments, mean age 67.0 years, 58.7% women, median follow-up 9.6 years), four trajectories of eGFR change with age were identified: slow eGFR decline [rate of change in mL/min/1.73 m2 per year (RC), -0.9; 95% CI, -0.9 to -0.9; reference group], intermediate eGFR decline (RC, -2.5; 95% CI, -2.7 to -2.5) and fast eGFR decline (RC, -4.3; 95% CI, -4.4 to -4.1), and an increase/stable eGFR (RC, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.3 to 0.4). Women were more likely to have an increase/stable eGFR [odds ratio (OR), 1.94; 95% CI, 1.53 to 2.46] whereas men were more likely to have a fast eGFR decline (OR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.33 to 2.60). Participants with diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD) or hypertension were more likely to have an intermediate or fast eGFR decline. All-cause mortality risks (cumulative incidence at age of 70 years) were 32.3% (95% CI, 21.4 to 47.9, slow eGFR decline), 6.7% (95% CI, 3.5 to 12.4, intermediate eGFR decline), 68.8% (95% CI, 44.4 to 87.8, fast eGFR decline) and 9.5% (95% CI, 5.5 to 15.7, increase/stable eGFR).

CONCLUSION

Sex, hypertension, diabetes and CVD were identified as trajectory membership determinants. Having fast eGFR decline was associated with the highest risk of all-cause mortality, highlighting the need for extensive monitoring and prevention of kidney function decline in individuals at risk of having fast eGFR decline.

The association between trajectories of risk factors and risk of cardiovascular disease or mortality among patients with diabetes or hypertension: A systematic review

Introduction

Cardiometabolic risk factors and renal function are monitored regularly for patients with diabetes mellitus (DM)/ hypertension (HT). In addition to risk factor levels at a single time point, their trajectory (changes over time) can also be differentially related to the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and mortality. This study aimed to systematically examine the evidence regarding the association between risk factor trajectories and risk of CVD/mortality in patients with DM/HT.

Method

PubMed, MEDLINE, and Embase were searched for articles from January 1963 to April 2021. Inclusion criteria: studies that 1) analyzed trajectories of risk factors including haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), blood pressure, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), body mass index (BMI), and blood lipids; 2) were performed in the DM/HT population and, 3) included risk of CVD/mortality as outcomes. Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa quality assessment scale.

Results

A total of 22,099 articles were identified. After screening by title and abstract, 22,027 articles were excluded by irrelevant outcomes, exposure, population, or type of articles. Following full-text screening, 11 articles investigating the trajectories of HbA1c (N = 7), systolic blood pressure (SBP) (N = 3), and eGFR (N = 1) were included for data extraction and analysis. No studies were identified examining the association of BMI or lipid trajectories with CVD/mortality. All included studies were of good quality based on the NOS criteria. In general, stable trajectories within optimal ranges of the risk factors (HbA1c: <7%, SBP: 120-139mmHg, eGFR: >60mL/min/1.73m²) had the lowest CVD/mortality risk compared to an increasing HbA1c trajectory (from 8% to 10%), an increasing SBP trajectory (from 120–139 to ≥140mmHg), or a decreasing eGFR trajectory (from 90 to 70mL/min/1.73m²).

Conclusion

A relatively stable and well-controlled trajectory for cardiometabolic risk factors was associated with the lowest risk of CVD/mortality. Risk factor trajectories have important clinical implications in addition to single time point measurements. More attention should be given to patients with suboptimal control and those with unstable trends of cardiometabolic risk factors.

The association of triglyceride and glucose index, and triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio with prehypertension and hypertension in normoglycemic subjects: A large cross-sectional population study

Insulin resistance (IR) plays an important role in the development of hypertension. Triglyceride and glucose index (TyG index), and triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (TG/HDL-c) as effective IR surrogate indexes have been verified in numerous studies. Therefore, the authors conducted a large cross-sectional study to explore the association of TyG index and TG/HDL-c with prehypertension and hypertension in the same normoglycemic subjects from Tianjin, China. A total of 32 124 adults were eligible for this study. According to the level of blood pressure, the enrolled individuals were divided into three groups, which were normotension, prehypertension, and hypertension. In multiple logistic regression analysis, there was associated with prehypertension and hypertension when comparing the highest TyG index to the lowest TyG index and corresponding ORs were 1.795 (1.638, 1.968) and 2.439 (2.205, 2.698), respectively. For TG/HDL-c, the corresponding ORs were 1.514 (1.382, 1.658) and 1.934 (1.751, 2.137), respectively. Furthermore, when comparing the fourth quartile to the first quartile of TyG index and TG/HDL-c, respectively, both corresponding ORs of hypertension were higher than prehypertension. Elevated TyG index and TG/HDL-c levels were associated with prehypertension and hypertension in normoglycemic individuals. Moreover, the TyG index was more significant than TG/HDL-c in distinguishing hypertension. They have the potential to become cost-effective monitors in the hierarchical management of prehypertension and hypertension.