Prediction of the development of islet autoantibodies through integration of environmental, genetic, and metabolic markers

Machine learning and artificial intelligence within pediatric autoimmune diseases: applications, challenges, future perspective

INTRODUCTION

Autoimmune disorders affect 4.5% to 9.4% of children, significantly reducing their quality of life. The diagnosis and prognosis of autoimmune diseases are uncertain because of the variety of onset and development. Machine learning can identify clinically relevant patterns from vast amounts of data. Hence, its introduction has been beneficial in the diagnosis and management of patients.

AREAS COVERED

This narrative review was conducted through searching various electronic databases, including PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science. This study thoroughly explores the current knowledge and identifies the remaining gaps in the applications of machine learning specifically in the context of pediatric autoimmune and related diseases.

EXPERT OPINION

Machine learning algorithms have the potential to completely change how pediatric autoimmune disorders are identified, treated, and managed. Machine learning can assist physicians in making more precise and fast judgments, identifying new biomarkers and therapeutic targets, and personalizing treatment strategies for each patient by utilizing massive datasets and powerful analytics.

Decrease in multiple complement proteins associated with development of islet autoimmunity and type 1 diabetes

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is a chronic condition caused by autoimmune destruction of the insulin-producing pancreatic β cells. While it is known that gene-environment interactions play a key role in triggering the autoimmune process leading to T1D, the pathogenic mechanism leading to the appearance of islet autoantibodies-biomarkers of autoimmunity-is poorly understood. Here we show that disruption of the complement system precedes the detection of islet autoantibodies and persists through disease onset. Our results suggest that children who exhibit islet autoimmunity and progress to clinical T1D have lower complement protein levels relative to those who do not progress within a similar time frame. Thus, the complement pathway, an understudied mechanistic and therapeutic target in T1D, merits increased attention for use as protein biomarkers of prediction and potentially prevention of T1D.

The Reporting Quality of Machine Learning Studies on Pediatric Diabetes Mellitus: Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a major health concern among children with the widespread adoption of advanced technologies. However, concerns are growing about the transparency, replicability, biasedness, and overall validity of artificial intelligence studies in medicine.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to systematically review the reporting quality of machine learning (ML) studies of pediatric DM using the Minimum Information About Clinical Artificial Intelligence Modelling (MI-CLAIM) checklist, a general reporting guideline for medical artificial intelligence studies.

METHODS

We searched the PubMed and Web of Science databases from 2016 to 2020. Studies were included if the use of ML was reported in children with DM aged 2 to 18 years, including studies on complications, screening studies, and in silico samples. In studies following the ML workflow of training, validation, and testing of results, reporting quality was assessed via MI-CLAIM by consensus judgments of independent reviewer pairs. Positive answers to the 17 binary items regarding sufficient reporting were qualitatively summarized and counted as a proxy measure of reporting quality. The synthesis of results included testing the association of reporting quality with publication and data type, participants (human or in silico), research goals, level of code sharing, and the scientific field of publication (medical or engineering), as well as with expert judgments of clinical impact and reproducibility.

RESULTS

After screening 1043 records, 28 studies were included. The sample size of the training cohort ranged from 5 to 561. Six studies featured only in silico patients. The reporting quality was low, with great variation among the 21 studies assessed using MI-CLAIM. The number of items with sufficient reporting ranged from 4 to 12 (mean 7.43, SD 2.62). The items on research questions and data characterization were reported adequately most often, whereas items on patient characteristics and model examination were reported adequately least often. The representativeness of the training and test cohorts to real-world settings and the adequacy of model performance evaluation were the most difficult to judge. Reporting quality improved over time (r=0.50; P=.02); it was higher than average in prognostic biomarker and risk factor studies (P=.04) and lower in noninvasive hypoglycemia detection studies (P=.006), higher in studies published in medical versus engineering journals (P=.004), and higher in studies sharing any code of the ML pipeline versus not sharing (P=.003). The association between expert judgments and MI-CLAIM ratings was not significant.

CONCLUSIONS

The reporting quality of ML studies in the pediatric population with DM was generally low. Important details for clinicians, such as patient characteristics; comparison with the state-of-the-art solution; and model examination for valid, unbiased, and robust results, were often the weak points of reporting. To assess their clinical utility, the reporting standards of ML studies must evolve, and algorithms for this challenging population must become more transparent and replicable.

Systematic review of type 1 diabetes biomarkers reveals regulation in circulating proteins related to complement, lipid metabolism, and immune response

BACKGROUND

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) results from an autoimmune attack of the pancreatic β cells that progresses to dysglycemia and symptomatic hyperglycemia. Current biomarkers to track this evolution are limited, with development of islet autoantibodies marking the onset of autoimmunity and metabolic tests used to detect dysglycemia. Therefore, additional biomarkers are needed to better track disease initiation and progression. Multiple clinical studies have used proteomics to identify biomarker candidates. However, most of the studies were limited to the initial candidate identification, which needs to be further validated and have assays developed for clinical use. Here we curate these studies to help prioritize biomarker candidates for validation studies and to obtain a broader view of processes regulated during disease development.

METHODS

This systematic review was registered with Open Science Framework ( https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/N8TSA ). Using PRISMA guidelines, we conducted a systematic search of proteomics studies of T1D in the PubMed to identify putative protein biomarkers of the disease. Studies that performed mass spectrometry-based untargeted/targeted proteomic analysis of human serum/plasma of control, pre-seroconversion, post-seroconversion, and/or T1D-diagnosed subjects were included. For unbiased screening, 3 reviewers screened all the articles independently using the pre-determined criteria.

RESULTS

A total of 13 studies met our inclusion criteria, resulting in the identification of 266 unique proteins, with 31 (11.6%) being identified across 3 or more studies. The circulating protein biomarkers were found to be enriched in complement, lipid metabolism, and immune response pathways, all of which are found to be dysregulated in different phases of T1D development. We found 2 subsets: 17 proteins (C3, C1R, C8G, C4B, IBP2, IBP3, ITIH1, ITIH2, BTD, APOE, TETN, C1S, C6A3, SAA4, ALS, SEPP1 and PI16) and 3 proteins (C3, CLUS and C4A) have consistent regulation in at least 2 independent studies at post-seroconversion and post-diagnosis compared to controls, respectively, making them strong candidates for clinical assay development.

CONCLUSIONS

Biomarkers analyzed in this systematic review highlight alterations in specific biological processes in T1D, including complement, lipid metabolism, and immune response pathways, and may have potential for further use in the clinic as prognostic or diagnostic assays.

Plasma protein biomarkers predict the development of persistent autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes 6 months prior to the onset of autoimmunity

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) results from autoimmune destruction of β cells. Insufficient availability of biomarkers represents a significant gap in understanding the disease cause and progression. We conduct blinded, two-phase case-control plasma proteomics on the TEDDY study to identify biomarkers predictive of T1D development. Untargeted proteomics of 2,252 samples from 184 individuals identify 376 regulated proteins, showing alteration of complement, inflammatory signaling, and metabolic proteins even prior to autoimmunity onset. Extracellular matrix and antigen presentation proteins are differentially regulated in individuals who progress to T1D vs. those that remain in autoimmunity. Targeted proteomics measurements of 167 proteins in 6,426 samples from 990 individuals validate 83 biomarkers. A machine learning analysis predicts if individuals would remain in autoimmunity or develop T1D 6 months before autoantibody appearance, with areas under receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.871 and 0.918, respectively. Our study identifies and validates biomarkers, highlighting pathways affected during T1D development.

Decrease in multiple complement protein levels is associated with the development of islet autoimmunity and type 1 diabetes

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is a chronic condition caused by autoimmune destruction of the insulin-producing pancreatic β-cells. While it is known that gene-environment interactions play a key role in triggering the autoimmune process leading to T1D, the pathogenic mechanism leading to the appearance of islet autoantibodies - biomarkers of autoimmunity - is poorly understood. Here we show that disruption of the complement system precedes the detection of islet autoantibodies and persists through disease onset. Our results suggest that children who exhibit islet autoimmunity and progress to clinical T1D have lower complement protein levels relative to those who do not progress within a similar timeframe. Thus, the complement pathway, an understudied mechanistic and therapeutic target in T1D, merits increased attention for use as protein biomarkers of prediction and potentially prevention of T1D.

Fatty acid-mediated signaling as a target for developing type 1 diabetes therapies

INTRODUCTION

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is an autoimmune disease in which pro-inflammatory and cytotoxic signaling drive the death of the insulin-producing β cells. This complex signaling is regulated in part by fatty acids and their bioproducts, making them excellent therapeutic targets.

AREAS COVERED

We provide an overview of the fatty acid actions on β cells by discussing how they can cause lipotoxicity or regulate inflammatory response during insulitis. We also discuss how diet can affect the availability of fatty acids and disease development. Finally, we discuss development avenues that need further exploration.

EXPERT OPINION

Fatty acids, such as hydroxyl fatty acids, ω-3 fatty acids, and their downstream products, are druggable candidates that promote protective signaling. Inhibitors and antagonists of enzymes and receptors of arachidonic acid and free fatty acids, along with their derived metabolites, which cause pro-inflammatory and cytotoxic responses, have the potential to be developed as therapeutic targets also. Further, because diet is the main source of fatty acid intake in humans, balancing protective and pro-inflammatory/cytotoxic fatty acid levels through dietary therapy may have beneficial effects, delaying T1D progression. Therefore, therapeutic interventions targeting fatty acid signaling hold potential as avenues to treat T1D.

Systematic review of type 1 diabetes biomarkers reveals regulation in circulating proteins related to complement, lipid metabolism, and immune response

Aims

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) results from an autoimmune attack of the pancreatic β cells that progresses to dysglycemia and symptomatic hyperglycemia. Current biomarkers to track this evolution are limited, with development of islet autoantibodies marking the onset of autoimmunity and metabolic tests used to detect dysglycemia. Therefore, additional biomarkers are needed to better track disease initiation and progression. Multiple clinical studies have used proteomics to identify biomarker candidates. However, most of the studies were limited to the initial candidate identification, which needs to be further validated and have assays developed for clinical use. Here we curate these studies to help prioritize biomarker candidates for validation studies and to obtain a broader view of processes regulated during disease development.

Methods

This systematic review was registered with Open Science Framework (DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/N8TSA). Using PRISMA guidelines, we conducted a systematic search of proteomics studies of T1D in the PubMed to identify putative protein biomarkers of the disease. Studies that performed mass spectrometry-based untargeted/targeted proteomic analysis of human serum/plasma of control, pre-seroconversion, post-seroconversion, and/or T1D-diagnosed subjects were included. For unbiased screening, 3 reviewers screened all the articles independently using the pre-determined criteria.

Results

A total of 13 studies met our inclusion criteria, resulting in the identification of 251 unique proteins, with 27 (11%) being identified across 3 or more studies. The circulating protein biomarkers were found to be enriched in complement, lipid metabolism, and immune response pathways, all of which are found to be dysregulated in different phases of T1D development. We found a subset of 3 proteins (C3, KNG1 & CFAH), 6 proteins (C3, C4A, APOA4, C4B, A2AP & BTD) and 7 proteins (C3, CLUS, APOA4, C6, A2AP, C1R & CFAI) have consistent regulation between multiple studies in samples from individuals at pre-seroconversion, post-seroconversion and post-diagnosis compared to controls, respectively, making them strong candidates for clinical assay development.

Conclusions

Biomarkers analyzed in this systematic review highlight alterations in specific biological processes in T1D, including complement, lipid metabolism, and immune response pathways, and may have potential for further use in the clinic as prognostic or diagnostic assays.

Environmental exposures in machine learning and data mining approaches to diabetes etiology: A scoping review

BACKGROUND

Environmental exposures are implicated in diabetes etiology, but are poorly understood due to disease heterogeneity, complexity of exposures, and analytical challenges. Machine learning and data mining are artificial intelligence methods that can address these limitations. Despite their increasing adoption in etiology and prediction of diabetes research, the types of methods and exposures analyzed have not been thoroughly reviewed.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to review articles that implemented machine learning and data mining methods to understand environmental exposures in diabetes etiology and disease prediction.

METHODS

We queried PubMed and Scopus databases for machine learning and data mining studies that used environmental exposures to understand diabetes etiology on September 19th, 2022. Exposures were classified into specific external, general external, or internal exposures. We reviewed machine learning and data mining methods and characterized the scope of environmental exposures studied in the etiology of general diabetes, type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes, and other types of diabetes.

RESULTS

We identified 44 articles for inclusion. Specific external exposures were the most common exposures studied, and supervised models were the most common methods used. Well-established specific external exposures of low physical activity, high cholesterol, and high triglycerides were predictive of general diabetes, type 2 diabetes, and prediabetes, while novel metabolic and gut microbiome biomarkers were implicated in type 1 diabetes.

DISCUSSION

The use of machine learning and data mining methods to elucidate environmental triggers of diabetes was largely limited to well-established risk factors identified using easily explainable and interpretable models. Future studies should seek to leverage machine learning and data mining to explore the temporality and co-occurrence of multiple exposures and further evaluate the role of general external and internal exposures in diabetes etiology.

Data harnessing to nurture the human mind for a tailored approach to the child

Big data in pediatrics is an ocean of structured and unstructured data. Big data analysis helps to dive into the ocean of data to filter out information that can guide pediatricians in their decision making, precision diagnosis, and targeted therapy. In addition, big data and its analysis have helped in the surveillance, prevention, and performance of the health system. There has been a considerable amount of work in pediatrics that we have tried to highlight in this review and some of it has been already incorporated into the health system. Work in specialties of pediatrics is still forthcoming with the creation of a common data model and amalgamation of the huge "omics" database. The physicians entrusted with the care of children must be aware of the outcome so that they can play a role to ensure that big data algorithms have a clinically relevant effect in improving the health of their patients. They will apply the outcome of big data and its analysis in patient care through clinical algorithms or with the help of embedded clinical support alerts from the electronic medical records. IMPACT: Big data in pediatrics include structured, unstructured data, waveform data, biological, and social data. Big data analytics has unraveled significant information from these databases. This is changing how pediatricians will look at the body of available evidence and translate it into their clinical practice. Data harnessed so far is implemented in certain fields while in others it is in the process of development to become a clinical adjunct to the physician. Common databases are being prepared for future work. Diagnostic and prediction models when incorporated into the health system will guide the pediatrician to a targeted approach to diagnosis and therapy.

Incomplete time-series gene expression in integrative study for islet autoimmunity prediction

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) outcome prediction plays a vital role in identifying novel risk factors, ensuring early patient care and designing cohort studies. TEDDY is a longitudinal cohort study that collects a vast amount of multi-omics and clinical data from its participants to explore the progression and markers of T1D. However, missing data in the omics profiles make the outcome prediction a difficult task. TEDDY collected time series gene expression for less than 6% of enrolled participants. Additionally, for the participants whose gene expressions are collected, 79% time steps are missing. This study introduces an advanced bioinformatics framework for gene expression imputation and islet autoimmunity (IA) prediction. The imputation model generates synthetic data for participants with partially or entirely missing gene expression. The prediction model integrates the synthetic gene expression with other risk factors to achieve better predictive performance. Comprehensive experiments on TEDDY datasets show that: (1) Our pipeline can effectively integrate synthetic gene expression with family history, HLA genotype and SNPs to better predict IA status at 2 years (sensitivity 0.622, AUC 0.715) compared with the individual datasets and state-of-the-art results in the literature (AUC 0.682). (2) The synthetic gene expression contains predictive signals as strong as the true gene expression, reducing reliance on expensive and long-term longitudinal data collection. (3) Time series gene expression is crucial to the proposed improvement and shows significantly better predictive ability than cross-sectional gene expression. (4) Our pipeline is robust to limited data availability. Availability: Code is available at https://github.com/compbiolabucf/TEDDY.

Plasma metabolomics provides new insights into the relationship between metabolites and outcomes and left ventricular remodeling of coronary artery disease

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a metabolically perturbed pathological condition. However, the knowledge of metabolic signatures on outcomes of CAD and their potential causal effects and impacts on left ventricular remodeling remains limited. We aim to assess the contribution of plasma metabolites to the risk of death and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) as well as left ventricular remodeling.

RESULTS

In a prospective study with 1606 Chinese patients with CAD, we have identified and validated several independent metabolic signatures through widely-targeted metabolomics. The predictive model respectively integrating four metabolic signatures (dulcitol, β-pseudouridine, 3,3',5-Triiodo-L-thyronine, and kynurenine) for death (AUC of 83.7% vs. 76.6%, positive IDI of 0.096) and metabolic signatures (kynurenine, lysoPC 20:2, 5-methyluridine, and L-tryptophan) for MACE (AUC of 67.4% vs. 59.8%, IDI of 0.068) yielded better predictive value than trimethylamine N-oxide plus clinical model, which were successfully applied to predict patients with high risks of death (P = 0.0014) and MACE (P = 0.0008) in the multicenter validation cohort. Mendelian randomisation analysis showed that 11 genetically inferred metabolic signatures were significantly associated with risks of death or MACE, such as 4-acetamidobutyric acid, phenylacetyl-L-glutamine, tryptophan metabolites (kynurenine, kynurenic acid), and modified nucleosides (β-pseudouridine, 2-(dimethylamino) guanosine). Mediation analyses show that the association of these metabolites with the outcomes could be partly explained by their roles in promoting left ventricular dysfunction.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provided new insights into the relationship between plasma metabolites and clinical outcomes and its intermediate pathological process left ventricular dysfunction in CAD. The predictive model integrating metabolites can help to improve the risk stratification for death and MACE in CAD. The metabolic signatures appear to increase death or MACE risks partly by promoting adverse left ventricular dysfunction, supporting potential therapeutic targets of CAD for further investigation.

Integration of Infant Metabolite, Genetic, and Islet Autoimmunity Signatures to Predict Type 1 Diabetes by Age 6 Years

CONTEXT

Biomarkers that can accurately predict risk of type 1 diabetes (T1D) in genetically predisposed children can facilitate interventions to delay or prevent the disease.

OBJECTIVE

This work aimed to determine if a combination of genetic, immunologic, and metabolic features, measured at infancy, can be used to predict the likelihood that a child will develop T1D by age 6 years.

METHODS

Newborns with human leukocyte antigen (HLA) typing were enrolled in the prospective birth cohort of The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY). TEDDY ascertained children in Finland, Germany, Sweden, and the United States. TEDDY children were either from the general population or from families with T1D with an HLA genotype associated with T1D specific to TEDDY eligibility criteria. From the TEDDY cohort there were 702 children will all data sources measured at ages 3, 6, and 9 months, 11.4% of whom progressed to T1D by age 6 years. The main outcome measure was a diagnosis of T1D as diagnosed by American Diabetes Association criteria.

RESULTS

Machine learning-based feature selection yielded classifiers based on disparate demographic, immunologic, genetic, and metabolite features. The accuracy of the model using all available data evaluated by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve is 0.84. Reducing to only 3- and 9-month measurements did not reduce the area under the curve significantly. Metabolomics had the largest value when evaluating the accuracy at a low false-positive rate.

CONCLUSION

The metabolite features identified as important for progression to T1D by age 6 years point to altered sugar metabolism in infancy. Integrating this information with classic risk factors improves prediction of the progression to T1D in early childhood.

Lipidomics in diabetes

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Multiple studies have shown a strong association between lipids and diabetes. These are usually described through the effects of cholesterol content of lipid particles and in particular low-density lipoprotein. However, lipoprotein particles contain other components, such as phospholipids and more complex lipid species, such as ceramides and sphingolipids. Ceramides, such as sphingolipids are also produced intracellularly and have signalling actions in regulating cell metabolism including effects on inflammation, and potentially have a mechanistic role in the development of insulin resistance.

RECENT FINDINGS

Recently, techniques have been developed to analyse detailed molecular profiles of lipid particles - lipidomics. Proteomics has confirmed the different proteins associated with different particles but far less is known about the relationship of individual lipid species with diabetes and cardiovascular risk. A number of studies have now shown that the plasma lipidome, and in particular, ceramides and sphingolipids may predict the development of diabetes.

SUMMARY

Lipidomics had identified ceramides and sphingolipids as potential mediators of cellular dysfunction in diabetes. Further work is required to ascertain whether they have clinical utility.

Prediction of Type 1 Diabetes at Birth: Cord Blood Metabolites vs Genetic Risk Score in the Norwegian Mother, Father, and Child Cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Genetic markers are established as predictive of type 1 diabetes, but unknown early life environment is believed to be involved. Umbilical cord blood may reflect perinatal metabolism and exposures. We studied whether selected polar metabolites in cord blood contribute to prediction of type 1 diabetes.

METHODS

Using a targeted UHPLC-QQQ-MS platform, we quantified 27 low-molecular-weight metabolites (including amino acids, small organic acids, and bile acids) in 166 children, who later developed type 1 diabetes, and 177 random control children in the Norwegian Mother, Father, and Child cohort. We analyzed the data using logistic regression (estimating odds ratios per SD [adjusted odds ratio (aOR)]), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and k-means clustering. Metabolites were compared to a genetic risk score based on 51 established non-HLA single-nucleotide polymorphisms, and a 4-category HLA risk group.

RESULTS

The strongest associations for metabolites were aminoadipic acid (aOR = 1.23; 95% CI, 0.97-1.55), indoxyl sulfate (aOR = 1.15; 95% CI, 0.87-1.51), and tryptophan (aOR = 0.84; 95% CI, 0.65-1.10), with other aORs close to 1.0, and none significantly associated with type 1 diabetes. K-means clustering identified 6 clusters, none of which were associated with type 1 diabetes. Cross-validated AUC showed no predictive value of metabolites (AUC 0.49), whereas the non-HLA genetic risk score AUC was 0.56 and the HLA risk group AUC was 0.78.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large study, we found no support of a predictive role of cord blood concentrations of selected bile acids and other small polar metabolites in the development of type 1 diabetes.

Technological readiness and implementation of genomic-driven precision medicine for complex diseases

The fields of human genetics and genomics have generated considerable knowledge about the mechanistic basis of many diseases. Genomic approaches to diagnosis, prognostication, prevention and treatment - genomic-driven precision medicine (GDPM) - may help optimize medical practice. Here, we provide a comprehensive review of GDPM of complex diseases across major medical specialties. We focus on technological readiness: how rapidly a test can be implemented into health care. Although these areas of medicine are diverse, key similarities exist across almost all areas. Many medical areas have, within their standards of care, at least one GDPM test for a genetic variant of strong effect that aids the identification/diagnosis of a more homogeneous subset within a larger disease group or identifies a subset with different therapeutic requirements. However, for almost all complex diseases, the majority of patients do not carry established single-gene mutations with large effects. Thus, research is underway that seeks to determine the polygenic basis of many complex diseases. Nevertheless, most complex diseases are caused by the interplay of genetic, behavioural and environmental risk factors, which will likely necessitate models for prediction and diagnosis that incorporate genetic and non-genetic data.

Trends in Prevalence of Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes in Children and Adolescents in the US, 2001-2017

IMPORTANCE

Changes in the prevalence of youth-onset diabetes have previously been observed.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate changes in prevalence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in youths in the US from 2001 to 2017.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this cross-sectional observational study, individuals younger than 20 years with physician-diagnosed diabetes were enumerated from 6 areas in the US (4 geographic areas, 1 health plan, and select American Indian reservations) for 2001, 2009, and 2017.

EXPOSURES

Calendar year.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Estimated prevalence of physician-diagnosed type 1 and type 2 diabetes overall and by race and ethnicity, age, and sex.

RESULTS

Among youths 19 years or younger, 4958 of 3.35 million had type 1 diabetes in 2001, 6672 of 3.46 million had type 1 diabetes in 2009, and 7759 of 3.61 million had type 1 diabetes in 2017; among those aged 10 to 19 years, 588 of 1.73 million had type 2 diabetes in 2001, 814 of 1.85 million had type 2 diabetes in 2009, and 1230 of 1.85 million had type 2 diabetes in 2017. The estimated type 1 diabetes prevalence per 1000 youths for those 19 years or younger increased significantly from 1.48 (95% CI, 1.44-1.52) in 2001 to 1.93 (95% CI, 1.88-1.98) in 2009 to 2.15 (95% CI, 2.10-2.20) in 2017, an absolute increase of 0.67 per 1000 youths (95%, CI, 0.64-0.70) and a 45.1% (95% CI, 40.0%-50.4%) relative increase over 16 years. The greatest absolute increases were observed among non-Hispanic White (0.93 per 1000 youths [95% CI, 0.88-0.98]) and non-Hispanic Black (0.89 per 1000 youths [95% CI, 0.88-0.98]) youths. The estimated type 2 diabetes prevalence per 1000 youths aged 10 to 19 years increased significantly from 0.34 (95% CI, 0.31-0.37) in 2001 to 0.46 (95% CI, 0.43-0.49) in 2009 to 0.67 (95% CI, 0.63-0.70) in 2017, an absolute increase of 0.32 per 1000 youths (95% CI, 0.30-0.35) and a 95.3% (95% CI, 77.0%-115.4%) relative increase over 16 years. The greatest absolute increases were observed among non-Hispanic Black (0.85 per 1000 youths [95% CI, 0.74-0.97]) and Hispanic (0.57 per 1000 youths [95% CI, 0.51-0.64]) youths.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In 6 areas of the US from 2001 to 2017, the estimated prevalence of diabetes among children and adolescents increased for both type 1 and type 2 diabetes.

Prediction of the development of islet autoantibodies through integration of environmental, genetic, and metabolic markers

BACKGROUND

The Environmental Determinants of the Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study has prospectively followed, from birth, children at increased genetic risk of type 1 diabetes. TEDDY has collected heterogenous data longitudinally to gain insights into the environmental and biological mechanisms driving the progression to persistent islet autoantibodies.

METHODS

We developed a machine learning model to predict imminent transition to the development of persistent islet autoantibodies based on time-varying metabolomics data integrated with time-invariant risk factors (eg, gestational age). The machine learning was initiated with 221 potential features (85 genetic, 5 environmental, 131 metabolomic) and an ensemble-based feature evaluation was utilized to identify a small set of predictive features that can be interrogated to better understand the pathogenesis leading up to persistent islet autoimmunity.

RESULTS

The final integrative machine learning model included 42 disparate features, returning a cross-validated receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) of 0.74 and an AUC of ~0.65 on an independent validation dataset. The model identified a principal set of 20 time-invariant markers, including 18 genetic markers (16 single nucleotide polymorphisms [SNPs] and two HLA-DR genotypes) and two demographic markers (gestational age and exposure to a prebiotic formula). Integration with the metabolome identified 22 supplemental metabolites and lipids, including adipic acid and ceramide d42:0, that predicted development of islet autoantibodies.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority (86%) of metabolites that predicted development of islet autoantibodies belonged to three pathways: lipid oxidation, phospholipase A2 signaling, and pentose phosphate, suggesting that these metabolic processes may play a role in triggering islet autoimmunity.