Identifying loci under selection via explicit demographic models

Unravelling drivers of local adaptation through evolutionary functional-structural plant modelling

Local adaptation to contrasting environmental conditions along environmental gradients is a widespread phenomenon in plant populations, yet we lack a mechanistic understanding of how individual agents of selection contribute to this evolutionary process. Here, we developed a novel evolutionary functional-structural plant (E-FSP) model that recreates local adaptation of virtual plants along an environmental gradient. First, we validate the model by testing if it can reproduce two elevational ecotypes of Dianthus carthusianorum occurring in the Swiss Alps. Second, we use the E-FSP model to disentangle the relative contribution of abiotic (temperature) and biotic (competition and pollination) selection pressures to elevational adaptation in D. carthusianorum. Our results suggest that elevational adaptation in D. carthusianorum is predominantly driven by the abiotic environment. The model reproduced the qualitative differences between the elevational ecotypes in two phenological (germination and flowering time) and one morphological trait (stalk height), as well as qualitative differences in four performance variables that emerge from G × E interactions (flowering time, number of stalks, rosette area and seed production). Our approach shows how E-FSP models incorporating physiological, ecological and evolutionary mechanisms can be used in combination with experiments to examine hypotheses about patterns of adaptation observed in the field.

Selection leads to false inferences of introgression using popular methods

Detecting introgression between closely related populations or species is a fundamental objective in evolutionary biology. Existing methods for detecting migration and inferring migration rates from population genetic data often assume a neutral model of evolution. Growing evidence of the pervasive impact of selection on large portions of the genome across diverse taxa suggests that this assumption is unrealistic in most empirical systems. Further, ignoring selection has previously been shown to negatively impact demographic inferences (e.g. of population size histories). However, the impacts of biologically realistic selection on inferences of migration remain poorly explored. Here, we simulate data under models of background selection, selective sweeps, balancing selection, and adaptive introgression. We show that ignoring selection sometimes leads to false inferences of migration in popularly used methods that rely on the site frequency spectrum. Specifically, balancing selection and some models of background selection result in the rejection of isolation-only models in favor of isolation-with-migration models and lead to elevated estimates of migration rates. BPP, a method that analyzes sequence data directly, showed false positives for all conditions at recent divergence times, but balancing selection also led to false positives at medium-divergence times. Our results suggest that such methods may be unreliable in some empirical systems, such that new methods that are robust to selection need to be developed.

Inference of Locus-Specific Population Mixtures from Linked Genome-Wide Allele Frequencies

Admixture between populations and species is common in nature. Since the influx of new genetic material might be either facilitated or hindered by selection, variation in mixture proportions along the genome is expected in organisms undergoing recombination. Various graph-based models have been developed to better understand these evolutionary dynamics of population splits and mixtures. However, current models assume a single mixture rate for the entire genome and do not explicitly account for linkage. Here, we introduce TreeSwirl, a novel method for inferring branch lengths and locus-specific mixture proportions by using genome-wide allele frequency data, assuming that the admixture graph is known or has been inferred. TreeSwirl builds upon TreeMix that uses Gaussian processes to estimate the presence of gene flow between diverged populations. However, in contrast to TreeMix, our model infers locus-specific mixture proportions employing a hidden Markov model that accounts for linkage. Through simulated data, we demonstrate that TreeSwirl can accurately estimate locus-specific mixture proportions and handle complex demographic scenarios. It also outperforms related D- and f-statistics in terms of accuracy and sensitivity to detect introgressed loci.

Approximate Bayesian Computation applied to time series of population genetic data disentangles rapid genetic changes and demographic variations in a pathogen population

Adaptation can occur at remarkably short timescales in natural populations, leading to drastic changes in phenotypes and genotype frequencies over a few generations only. The inference of demographic parameters can allow understanding how evolutionary forces interact and shape the genetic trajectories of populations during rapid adaptation. Here we propose a new Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework that couples a forward and individual-based model with temporal genetic data to disentangle genetic changes and demographic variations in a case of rapid adaptation. We test the accuracy of our inferential framework and evaluate the benefit of considering a dense versus sparse sampling. Theoretical investigations demonstrate high accuracy in both model and parameter estimations, even if a strong thinning is applied to time series data. Then, we apply our ABC inferential framework to empirical data describing the population genetic changes of the poplar rust pathogen following a major event of resistance overcoming. We successfully estimate key demographic and genetic parameters, including the proportion of resistant hosts deployed in the landscape and the level of standing genetic variation from which selection occurred. Inferred values are in accordance with our empirical knowledge of this biological system. This new inferential framework, which contrasts with coalescent-based ABC analyses, is promising for a better understanding of evolutionary trajectories of populations subjected to rapid adaptation.

HaploBlocks: Efficient Detection of Positive Selection in Large Population Genomic Datasets

Genomic regions under positive selection harbor variation linked for example to adaptation. Most tools for detecting positively selected variants have computational resource requirements rendering them impractical on population genomic datasets with hundreds of thousands of individuals or more. We have developed and implemented an efficient haplotype-based approach able to scan large datasets and accurately detect positive selection. We achieve this by combining a pattern matching approach based on the positional Burrows-Wheeler transform with model-based inference which only requires the evaluation of closed-form expressions. We evaluate our approach with simulations, and find it to be both sensitive and specific. The computational resource requirements quantified using UK Biobank data indicate that our implementation is scalable to population genomic datasets with millions of individuals. Our approach may serve as an algorithmic blueprint for the era of "big data" genomics: a combinatorial core coupled with statistical inference in closed form.

The genomic scale of fluctuating selection in a natural plant population

This study characterizes evolution at ≈1.86 million Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) within a natural population of yellow monkeyflower (Mimulus guttatus). Most SNPs exhibit minimal change over a span of 23 generations (less than 1% per year), consistent with neutral evolution in a large population. However, several thousand SNPs display strong fluctuations in frequency. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that these 'Fluctuating SNPs' are driven by temporally varying selection. Unlinked loci exhibit synchronous changes with the same allele increasing consistently in certain time intervals but declining in others. This synchrony is sufficiently pronounced that we can roughly classify intervals into two categories, "green" and "yellow," corresponding to conflicting selection regimes. Alleles increasing in green intervals are associated with early life investment in vegetative tissue and delayed flowering. The alternative alleles that increase in yellow intervals are associated with rapid progression to flowering. Selection on the Fluctuating SNPs produces a strong ripple effect on variation across the genome. Accounting for estimation error, we estimate the distribution of allele frequency change per generation in this population. While change is minimal for most SNPs, diffuse hitchhiking effects generated by selected loci may be driving neutral SNPs to a much greater extent than classic genetic drift.

Insights into invasive species from whole-genome resequencing

Studies of invasive species can simultaneously inform management strategies and quantify rapid evolution in the wild. The role of genomics in invasion science is increasingly recognised, and the growing availability of reference genomes for invasive species is paving the way for whole-genome resequencing studies in a wide range of systems. Here, we survey the literature to assess the application of whole-genome resequencing data in invasion biology. For some applications, such as the reconstruction of invasion routes in time and space, sequencing the whole genome of many individuals can increase the accuracy of existing methods. In other cases, population genomic approaches such as haplotype analysis can permit entirely new questions to be addressed and new technologies applied. To date whole-genome resequencing has only been used in a handful of invasive systems, but these studies have confirmed the importance of processes such as balancing selection and hybridization in allowing invasive species to reuse existing adaptations and rapidly overcome the challenges of a foreign ecosystem. The use of genomic data does not constitute a paradigm shift per se, but by leveraging new theory, tools, and technologies, population genomics can provide unprecedented insight into basic and applied aspects of invasion science.