Development and validation of tumor-to-blood based nomograms for preoperative prediction of lymph node metastasis in lung cancer

A liquid biopsy assay for the noninvasive detection of lymph node metastases in T1 lung adenocarcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) is a common pathological type of lung cancer. The presence of lymph node metastasis plays a crucial role in determining the overall treatment approach and long-term prognosis for early LUAD, therefore accurate prediction of lymph node metastasis is essential to guide treatment decisions and ultimately improve patient outcomes.

METHODS

We performed transcriptome sequencing on T1 LUAD patients with positive or negative lymph node metastases and combined this data with The Cancer Genome Atlas Program cohort to identify potential risk molecules at the tissue level. Subsequently, by detecting the expression of these risk molecules by real-time quantitative PCR in serum samples, we developed a model to predict the risk of lymph node metastasis from a training cohort of 96 patients and a validation cohort of 158 patients.

RESULTS

Through transcriptome sequencing analysis of tissue samples, we identified 11 RNA (miR-412, miR-219, miR-371, FOXC1, ID1, MMP13, COL11A1, PODXL2, CXCL13, SPOCK1 and MECOM) associated with positive lymph node metastases in T1 LUAD. As the expression of FOXC1 and COL11A1 was not detected in serum, we constructed a predictive model that accurately identifies patients with positive lymph node metastases using the remaining nine RNA molecules in the serum of T1 LUAD patients. In the training set, the model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.89, and in the validation set, the AUC was 0.91.

CONCLUSIONS

We have established a new risk prediction model using serum samples from T1 LUAD patients, enabling noninvasive identification of those with positive lymph node metastases.

Risk profiles and a concise prediction model for lymph node metastasis in patients with lung adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Lung cancer is the second most commonly diagnosed cancer and ranks the first in mortality. Pathological lymph node status(pN) of lung cancer affects the treatment strategy after surgery while systematic lymph node dissection(SLND) is always unsatisfied.

METHODS

We reviewed the clinicopathological features of 2,696 patients with LUAD and one single lesion ≤ 5 cm who underwent SLND in addition to lung resection at the Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer Center. The relationship between the pN status and all other clinicopathological features was assessed. All participants were stochastically divided into development and validation cohorts; the former was used to establish a logistic regression model based on selected factors from stepwise backward algorithm to predict pN status. C-statistics, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were calculated for both cohorts to test the model performance.

RESULTS

Nerve tract infiltration (NTI), visceral pleural infiltration (PI), lymphovascular infiltration (LVI), right upper lobe (RUL), low differentiated component, tumor size, micropapillary component, lepidic component, and micropapillary predominance were included in the final model. Model performance in the development and validation cohorts was as follows: 0.861 (95% CI: 0.842-0.883) and 0.840 (95% CI: 0.804-0.876) for the C-statistics and 0.803 (95% CI: 0.784-0.821) and 0.785 (95% CI: 0.755-0.814) for accuracy, and 0.754 (95% CI: 0.706-0.798) and 0.686 (95% CI: 0.607-0.757) for sensitivity and 0.814 (95% CI: 0.794-0.833) and 0.811 (95% CI: 0.778-0.841) for specificity, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our study showed an easy and credible tool with good performance in predicting pN in patients with LUAD with a single tumor ≤ 5.0 cm without SLND and it is valuable to adjust the treatment strategy.

A novel nomogram to predict lymph node metastasis in cT1 non-small-cell lung cancer based on PET/CT and peripheral blood cell parameters

BACKGROUND

Accurately evaluating the lymph node status preoperatively is critical in determining the appropriate treatment plan for non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. This study aimed to construct a novel nomogram to predict the probability of lymph node metastasis in clinical T1 stage patients based on non-invasive and easily accessible indicators.

METHODS

From October 2019 to June 2022, the data of 84 consecutive cT1 NSCLC patients who had undergone PET/CT examination within 30 days before surgery were retrospectively collected. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the risk factors of lymph node metastasis. A nomogram based on these predictors was constructed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the calibration curve was used for assessment. Besides, the model was confirmed by bootstrap resampling.

RESULTS

Four predictors (tumor SUVmax value, lymph node SUVmax value, consolidation tumor ratio and platelet to lymphocyte ratio) were identified and entered into the nomogram. The model indicated certain discrimination, with an area under ROC curve of 0.921(95%CI 0.866-0.977). The calibration curve showed good concordance between the predicted and actual possibility of lymph node metastasis.

CONCLUSIONS

This nomogram was practical and effective in predicting lymph node metastasis for patients with cT1 NSCLC. It could provide treatment recommendations to clinicians.

Development and validation of tumor-to-blood based nomograms for preoperative prediction of lymph node metastasis in lung cancer

Background

To develop and validate tumor‐to‐blood based nomograms for preoperative prediction of lymph node (LN) metastasis in patients with lung cancer (LC).

Methods

A prediction model was developed in a primary cohort comprising 330 LN stations from patients with pathologically confirmed LC, these data having been gathered from January 2016 to June 2019. Tumor‐to‐blood variables of LNs were calculated from positron emission tomography‐computed tomography (PET‐CT) images of LC and the short axis diameters of LNs were measured on CT images. Tumor‐to‐blood variables, number of stations suspected of harboring LN metastasis according to PET, and independent clinicopathological risk factors were included in the final nomograms. After being internally validated, the nomograms were used to assess an independent validation cohort containing 101 consecutive LN stations accumulated from July 2019 to March 2020.

Results

Four tumor‐to‐blood variables (left atrium, inferior vena cava, liver, and aortic arch) and the maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) for LNs were found to be significantly associated with LN status (p < 0.001 for both primary and validation cohorts). Five predictive nomograms were built. Of these, one with LN SUVmax/left atrium SUVmax was found to be optimal for predicting LN status with AUC 0.830 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.774–0.886) in the primary cohort and AUC 0.865 (95% CI: 0.782–0.948) in the validation cohort. All models showed good discrimination, with a modest C‐index, and good calibration in both primary and validation cohorts.

Conclusions

We have developed tumor‐to‐blood based nomograms that incorporate identified clinicopathological risk factors and facilitate preoperative prediction of LN metastasis in LC patients.