The measurement of selection when detection is imperfect: How good are naïve methods?

Analytical results for directional and quadratic selection gradients for log-linear models of fitness functions

Log-linear models are widely used for assessing determinants of fitness in empirical studies, for example, in determining how reproductive output depends on trait values or environmental conditions. Similarly, theoretical works of fitness and natural selection employ log-linear models, often with a negative quadratic term, generating Gaussian fitness functions. However, in the specific application of regression-based analysis of natural selection, such models are rarely employed. Rather, OLS regression is the predominant means of assessing the form of natural selection. OLS regressions allow specific evolutionary quantitative parameters, selection gradients, to be estimated, and benefit from the fact that the associated statistical models are easily applied. We examine whether selection gradients can be directly expressed in terms of the coefficients of models using exponential fitness functions with linear or quadratic arguments. Such models can be easily fitted with generalized linear models (GLMs). The expressions we obtain coincide with those for Gaussian functions, but relax the major constraint that the (log) fitness function is concave (downwardly curved). Additionally these results lead to univariate and multivariate analyses of both linear and quadratic selection that potentially incorporate pragmatic and interpretable models of fitness functions, where the parameters can be related analytically to selection gradients, and that can be operationalized using widely available statistical tools.

Selection on phenotypic plasticity favors thermal canalization

Climate change affects organisms worldwide with profound ecological and evolutionary consequences, often increasing population extinction risk. Climatic factors can increase the strength, variability, or direction of natural selection on phenotypic traits, potentially driving adaptive evolution. Phenotypic plasticity in relation to temperature can allow organisms to maintain fitness in response to increasing temperatures, thereby "buying time" for subsequent genetic adaptation and promoting evolutionary rescue. Although many studies have shown that organisms respond plastically to increasing temperatures, it is unclear if such thermal plasticity is adaptive. Moreover, we know little about how natural and sexual selection operate on thermal reaction norms, reflecting such plasticity. Here, we investigate how natural and sexual selection shape phenotypic plasticity in two congeneric and phenotypically similar sympatric insect species. We show that the thermal optima for longevity and mating success differ, suggesting temperature-dependent trade-offs between survival and reproduction in both sexes. Males in these species have similar thermal reaction norm slopes but have diverged in baseline body temperature (intercepts), being higher for the more northern species. Natural selection favored reduced thermal reaction norm slopes at high ambient temperatures, suggesting that the current level of thermal plasticity is maladaptive in the context of anthropogenic climate change and that selection now promotes thermal canalization and robustness. Our results show that ectothermic animals also at high latitudes can suffer from overheating and challenge the common view of phenotypic plasticity as being beneficial in harsh and novel environments.

High detectability with low impact: Optimizing large PIT tracking systems for cave-dwelling bats

Passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag technology permits the "resighting" of animals tagged for ecological research without the need for physical re-trapping. Whilst this is effective if animals pass within centimeters of tag readers, short-distance detection capabilities have prevented the use of this technology with many species. To address this problem, we optimized a large (15 m long) flexible antenna system to provide a c. 8 m2 vertical detection plane for detecting animals in flight. We installed antennas at two roosting caves, including the primary maternity cave, of the critically endangered southern bent-winged bat (Miniopterus orianae bassanii) in south-eastern Australia. Testing of these systems indicated PIT-tags could be detected up to 105 cm either side of the antenna plane. Over the course of a three-year study, we subcutaneously PIT-tagged 2,966 bats and logged over 1.4 million unique detections, with 97% of tagged bats detected at least once. The probability of encountering a tagged bat decreased with increasing environmental "noise" (unwanted signal) perceived by the system. During the study, we mitigated initial high noise levels by earthing both systems, which contributed to an increase in daily detection probability (based on the proportion of individuals known to be alive that were detected each day) from <0.2 (noise level ≥30%) to 0.7-0.8 (noise level 5%-15%). Conditional on a low (5%) noise level, model-based estimates of daily encounter probability were highest (>0.8) during peak breeding season when both female and male southern bent-winged bats congregate at the maternity cave. In this paper, we detail the methods employed and make methodological recommendations for future wildlife research using large antennas, including earthing systems as standard protocol and quantifying noise metrics as a covariate influencing the probability of detection in subsequent analyses. Our results demonstrate that large PIT antennas can be used successfully to detect small volant species, extending the scope of PIT technology and enabling a much broader range of wildlife species to be studied using this approach.

Frequency Dependence and Ecological Drift Shape Coexistence of Species with Similar Niches

The coexistence of ecologically similar species might be counteracted by ecological drift and demographic stochasticity, both of which erode local diversity. With niche differentiation, species can be maintained through performance trade-offs between environments, but trade-offs are difficult to invoke for species with similar ecological niches. Such similar species might then go locally extinct due to stochastic ecological drift, but there is little empirical evidence for such processes. Previous studies have relied on biogeographical surveys and inferred process from pattern, while experimental field investigations of ecological drift are rare. Mechanisms preserving local species diversity, such as frequency dependence (e.g., rare-species advantages), can oppose local ecological drift, but the combined effects of ecological drift and such counteracting forces have seldom been investigated. Here, we investigate mechanisms between coexistence of ecologically similar but strongly sexually differentiated damselfly species (Calopteryx virgo and Calopteryx splendens). Combining field surveys, behavioral observations, experimental manipulations of species frequencies and densities, and simulation modeling, we demonstrate that species coexistence is shaped by the opposing forces of ecological drift and negative frequency dependence (rare-species advantage), generated by interference competition. Stochastic and deterministic processes therefore jointly shape coexistence. The role of negative frequency dependence in delaying the loss of ecologically similar species, such as those formed by sexual selection, should therefore be considered in community assembly, macroecology, macroevolution, and biogeography.

On the standardization of fitness and traits in comparative studies of phenotypic selection

Comparisons of the strength and form of phenotypic selection among groups provide a powerful approach for testing adaptive hypotheses. A central and largely unaddressed issue is how fitness and phenotypes are standardized in such studies; standardization across or within groups can qualitatively change conclusions whenever mean fitness differs between groups. We briefly reviewed recent relevant literature, and found that selection studies vary widely in their scale of standardization, but few investigators motivated their rationale for chosen standardization approaches. Here, we propose that the scale at which fitness should be relativized should reflect whether selection is likely to be hard or soft; that is, the scale at which populations (or hypothetical populations in the case of a contrived experiment) are regulated. We argue that many comparative studies of selection are implicitly or explicitly focused on soft selection (i.e., frequency and density-dependent selection). In such studies, relative fitness should preferably be calculated using within-group means, although this approach is taken only occasionally. Related difficulties arise for the standardization of phenotypes. The appropriate scale at which standardization should take place depends on whether groups are considered to be fixed or random. We emphasize that the scale of standardization is a critical decision in empirical studies of selection that should always warrant explicit justification.

Intrasexual selection favours an immune-correlated colour ornament in a dragonfly

Sexual signalling is predicted to shape the evolution of sex-specific ornamentation, and establishing the costs and benefits of ornamentation and the information that ornamentation provides to receivers is necessary to evaluating this adaptive function. Here, we assessed the adaptive function of a common colour ornament in insects, melanin wing ornamentation, using the dragonfly Pachydiplax longipennis. We hypothesized that greater ornamentation would improve territory-holding success by decreasing aggression that males receive from territorial rivals, but that more ornamented males may have shorter lifespans. Using mark-recapture field observations, we found that more ornamented males had greater territory-holding success and that viability selection did not act on wing melanization. We then compared the aggression of territorial rivals to decoy males before and after experimentally augmenting wing melanization, finding that males significantly reduced aggression following the manipulation. We next hypothesized that wing melanization would signal fighting ability to territorial rivals by reflecting condition via investment in the costly melanin synthesis pathway. We observed a positive relationship between ornamentation and the likelihood of winning territorial disputes, suggesting that wing melanization provides information about fighting ability to rivals. We also found a positive relationship between melanin-based immune defence and ornamentation, supporting a link between the signal and condition. We conclude that wing melanization is a condition-related signal of fighting ability and suggest that this may be a common mechanism promoting the evolution of melanin ornamentation.