3D spatial conservation prioritisation: Accounting for depth in marine environments

3D ocean assessments reveal that fisheries reach deep but marine protection remains shallow

The wave of new global conservation targets, the conclusion of the High Seas Treaty negotiations, and the expansion of extractive use into the deep sea call for a paradigm shift in ocean conservation. The current reductionist 2D representation of the ocean to set targets and measure impacts will fail at achieving effective biodiversity conservation. Here, we develop a framework that overlays depth realms onto marine ecoregions to conduct the first three-dimensional spatial analysis of global marine conservation achievements and fisheries footprint. Our novel approach reveals conservation gaps of mesophotic, rariphotic, and abyssal depths and an underrepresentation of high protection levels across all depths. In contrast, the 3D footprint of fisheries covers all depths, with benthic fishing occurring down to the lower bathyal and mesopelagic fishing peaking in areas overlying abyssal depths. Additionally, conservation efforts are biased towards areas where the lowest fishing pressures occur, compromising the effectiveness of the marine conservation network. These spatial mismatches emphasize the need to shift towards 3D thinking to achieve ocean sustainability.

Climate change projections show shrinking deep-water ecosystems with implications for biodiversity and aquaculture in the Northwest Pacific

The increased availability of environmental data with depth deriving from remote-sensing-based datasets permits more comprehensive modelling of the distribution of marine ecosystems in space and time. This research tests the potential of such objective modelling of marine ecosystems in four dimensions, spatial and temporal, to provide projections of how climate change may affect biodiversity, including aquaculture. This approach could be replicated for any regional seas. The Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea (BYECS) are marginal seas in the Northwest Pacific bounded by China, Korea, and Japan. Despite providing important ecological and economic services, their ecological conditions and ecosystems distribution have not yet been systematically mapped. This analysis used 13 marine environmental variables, measured on a three-dimensional and monthly basis during 1993-2019, to classify and map the BYECS region by k-means clustering using cosine similarity as distance function. There were 13 distinct areas identified that fit the definition of "ecosystems" that is, enduring regions demarcated by environmental characteristics. Of these 13 ecosystems, the Yellow Sea Cold Water (YSCW) Ecosystem is significant in relation to seasonal species composition and the newly developing deep-sea salmon caging aquaculture in the region. Projections of the potential size of this water mass under various climate-change scenarios based on analysis using the Non-Parametric Probabilistic Ecological Niche (NPPEN) model show that its volume may decrease 31 %-66 % in the future. Such a decrease would have impacts on the seasonal species' abundances in the BYECS marginal sea region and threaten the deep-sea cold-water salmon farming.

Species turnover in ant assemblages is greater horizontally than vertically in the world's tallest tropical forest

Abiotic and biotic factors structure species assembly in ecosystems both horizontally and vertically. However, the way community composition changes along comparable horizontal and vertical distances in complex three‐dimensional habitats, and the factors driving these patterns, remains poorly understood. By sampling ant assemblages at comparable vertical and horizontal spatial scales in a tropical rainforest, we tested hypotheses that predicted differences in vertical and horizontal turnover explained by different drivers in vertical and horizontal space. These drivers included environmental filtering, such as microclimate (temperature, humidity, and photosynthetic photon flux density) and microhabitat connectivity (leaf area), which are structured differently across vertical and horizontal space. We found that both ant abundance and richness decreased significantly with increasing vertical height. Although the dissimilarity between ant assemblages increased with vertical distance, indicating a clear distance‐decay pattern, the dissimilarity was higher horizontally where it appeared independent of distance. The pronounced horizontal and vertical structuring of ant assemblages across short distances is likely explained by a combination of microclimate and microhabitat connectivity. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering three‐dimensional spatial variation in local assemblages and reveal how highly diverse communities can be supported by complex habitats.

4D marine conservation networks: Combining 3D prioritization of present and future biodiversity with climatic refugia

Given the accelerating rate of biodiversity loss, the need to prioritize marine areas for protection represents a major conservation challenge. The three-dimensionality of marine life and ecosystems is an inherent element of complexity for setting spatial conservation plans. Yet, the confidence of any recommendation largely depends on shifting climate, which triggers a global redistribution of biodiversity, suggesting the inclusion of time as a fourth dimension. Here, we developed a depth-specific prioritization analysis to inform the design of protected areas, further including metrics of climate-driven changes in the ocean. Climate change was captured in this analysis by considering the projected future distribution of >2000 benthic and pelagic species inhabiting the Mediterranean Sea, combined with climatic stability and heterogeneity metrics of the seascape. We identified important areas based on both biological and climatic criteria, where conservation focus should be given in priority when designing a three-dimensional, climate-smart protected area network. We detected spatially concise, conservation priority areas, distributed around the basin, that protected marine areas almost equally across all depth zones. Our approach highlights the importance of deep sea zones as priority areas to meet conservation targets for future marine biodiversity, while suggesting that spatial prioritization schemes, that focus on a static two-dimensional distribution of biodiversity data, might fail to englobe both the vertical properties of species distributions and the fine and larger-scale impacts associated with climate change.

Is the current Mediterranean network of marine protected areas resilient to climate change?

Rising ocean temperature impacts the functionality and structure of ecosystems, further triggering the redistribution of biodiversity. Still, the magnitude and anticipated impacts of ocean warming are not expected to be uniform across marine space. Here, we developed a two-fold index-based approach to provide an integrated climatic vulnerability assessment of the marine surfaces which are enclosed within protected areas in the Mediterranean Sea. We first built a climatic stability index, based on metrics of analog-based velocity of climate change over a 120-year period (1950-2069), to assess patterns of climate dynamics within the marine protected surfaces. To provide a vulnerability ranking of protected surfaces under climate change, we combined this climate-related index with an index of community stability, reflecting the projected distribution shifts of 71 species of high conservation value. Our analyses revealed a highly heterogeneous and dynamic climatic space, with increasing but spatially inconsistent patterns of climate change velocities over successive 30-year periods. We found that about 62% of the protected marine surface might be subjected to low/very low climatic stability. About 70% of the protected waters were also found to be of limited community stability. Thus, protected surfaces across the Mediterranean basin were characterized by high vulnerability under changing climatic conditions, while only 5.7% of them exhibited high and very high stability based on both indices. Our findings suggest that combining information on climate change dynamics and biotic stability could offer spatially explicit insights which cannot be obtained based simply on the ecological dimensions of conservation planning.

Assessing the coastal sensitivity to oil spills from the perspective of ecosystem services: A case study for Canada's pacific coast

Coastal environment is one of the most important ecological and socioeconomic areas. However, increasing energy demand and economic development lead to a continuous gas and oil exploration, production, and traffics, which notably raise the risk of oil spill accidents in coastal areas. Sensitivity assessment aiming to determine the coastal features that would be severely impaired by spill incidents is a crucial part of the response planning. In this study, an innovative framework for coastal sensitivity mapping that incorporated ecosystem service (ES) valuation and multidimensional assessment was proposed. Sensitivity was computed by valuing physical, biological, and social-economical indicators from ES perspective and separating each indicator into specific coastal domains. For different ES typologies, provisioning services contributed most to the overall ES value followed by culture services, supporting services, and regulating services. For ES value in different coastal domains, the highest value was recorded in the water column followed by water surface, shoreline, and seabed. However, the shoreline ranked highest regarding the ES value per ha. Sensitivity assessment revealed that sensitive areas differed in different domains, both in distribution and extent. Compared with the scoring method, the ES valuation method showed more coincidence with Ecologically and Biologically Significant Areas (EBSA), representing a more precise and practical approach for sensitivity assessment. A three-dimensional (3D) oil spill model was also applied to generate maps of oil contamination probability in shoreline, water surface, and water column. The obtained results highlighted the significance of incorporating different coastal domains into oil spill responses, and the urgent demand to broaden and deepen our understanding of ecological processes across the vertical coastal zones.

National-scale marine bioregions for the Southwest Pacific

Existing marine bioregions covering the Pacific Ocean are conceptualised at spatial scales that are too broad for national marine spatial planning. Here, we developed the first combined oceanic and coastal marine bioregionalisation at national scales, delineating 262 deep-water and 103 reef-associated bioregions across the southwest Pacific. The deep-water bioregions were informed by thirty biophysical environmental variables. For reef-associated environments, records for 806 taxa at 7369 sites were used to predict the probability of observing taxa based on environmental variables. Both deep-water and reef-associated bioregions were defined with cluster analysis applied to the environmental variables and predicted species observation probabilities, respectively to classify areas with high taxonomic similarity. Local experts further refined the delineation of the bioregions at national scales for four countries. This work provides marine bioregions that enable the design of ecologically representative national systems of marine protected areas within offshore and inshore environments in the Pacific.

Global assessment of marine biodiversity potentially threatened by offshore hydrocarbon activities

Increasing global energy demands have led to the ongoing intensification of hydrocarbon extraction from marine areas. Hydrocarbon extractive activities pose threats to native marine biodiversity, such as noise, light, and chemical pollution, physical changes to the sea floor, invasive species, and greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we assessed at a global scale the spatial overlap between offshore hydrocarbon activities and marine biodiversity (>25,000 species, nine major ecosystems, and marine protected areas), and quantify the changes over time. We discovered that two-thirds of global offshore hydrocarbon activities occur in areas within the top 10% for species richness, range rarity, and proportional range rarity values globally. Thus, while hydrocarbon activities are undertaken in less than one percent of the ocean's area, they overlap with approximately 85% of all assessed species. Of conservation concern, 4% of species with the largest proportion of their range overlapping hydrocarbon activities are range restricted, potentially increasing their vulnerability to localized threats such as oil spills. While hydrocarbon activities have extended to greater depths since the mid-1990s, we found that the largest overlap is with coastal ecosystems, particularly estuaries, saltmarshes and mangroves. Furthermore, in most countries where offshore hydrocarbon exploration licensing blocks have been delineated, they do not overlap with marine protected areas (MPAs). Although this is positive in principle, many countries have far more licensing block areas than protected areas, and in some instances, MPA coverage is minimal. These findings suggest the need for marine spatial prioritization to help limit future spatial overlap between marine conservation priorities and hydrocarbon activities. Such prioritization can be informed by the spatial and quantitative baseline information provided here. In increasingly shared seascapes, prioritizing management actions that set both conservation and development targets could help minimize further declines of biodiversity and environmental changes at a global scale.

Stratifying ocean sampling globally and with depth to account for environmental variability

With increasing depth, the ocean is less sampled for physical, chemical and biological variables. Using the Global Marine Environmental Datasets (GMED) and Ecological Marine Units (EMUs), we show that spatial variation in environmental variables decreases with depth. This is also the case over temporal scales because seasonal change, surface weather conditions, and biological activity are highest in shallow depths. A stratified sampling approach to ocean sampling is therefore proposed whereby deeper environments, both pelagic and benthic, would be sampled with relatively lower spatial and temporal resolutions. Sampling should combine measurements of physical and chemical parameters with biological species distributions, even though species identification is difficult to automate. Species distribution data are essential to infer ecosystem structure and function from environmental data. We conclude that a globally comprehensive, stratification-based ocean sampling program would be both scientifically justifiable and cost-effective.