Detecting seed bank influence on plant metapopulation dynamics

Assessing the extinction risk of the spontaneous flora in urban tree bases

As the spatial arrangement of trees planted along streets in cities makes their bases potential ecological corridors for the flora, urban tree bases may be a key contributor to the overall connectivity of the urban ecosystem. However, these tree bases are also a highly fragmented environment in which extinctions are frequent. The goal of this study was to assess the plant species' ability to survive and spread through urban tree bases. To do so, we developed a Bayesian framework to assess the extinction risk of a plant metapopulation using presence/absence data, assuming that the occupancy dynamics was described by a Hidden Markov Model. The novelty of our approach is to take into account the combined effect of low-distance dispersal and the potential presence of a seed bank on the extinction risk. We introduced a metric of the extinction risk and examined its performance over a wide range of metapopulation parameters. We applied our framework to yearly floristic inventories carried out in 1324 tree bases in Paris, France. While local extinction risks were generally high, extinction risks at the street scale varied greatly from one species to another. We identified 10 plant species that could survive and spread through urban tree bases, and three plant traits correlated with the extinction risk at the metapopulation scale: the maximal height, and the beginning and end of the flowering period. Our results suggest that some plant species can use urban tree bases as ecological corridors despite high local extinction risks by forming a seed bank. We also identified other plant traits correlated with the ability to survive in tree bases, related to the action of gardeners. Moreover, our findings demonstrate that our Bayesian estimation framework based on percolation theory has the potential to be extended to more general metapopulations.

Extinction threshold and large population limit of a plant metapopulation model with recurrent extinction events and a seed bank component

We introduce a new model for plant metapopulations with a seed bank component, living in a fragmented environment in which local extinction events are frequent. This model is an intermediate between population dynamics models with a seed bank component, based on the classical Wright-Fisher model, and Stochastic Patch Occupancy Models (SPOMs) used in metapopulation ecology. Its main feature is the use of "ghost" individuals, which can reproduce but with a very strong selective disadvantage against "real" individuals, to artificially ensure a constant population size. We show the existence of an extinction threshold above which persistence of the subpopulation of "real" individuals is not possible, and investigate how the seed bank characteristics affect this extinction threshold. We also show the convergence of the model to a SPOM under an appropriate scaling, bridging the gap between individual-based models and occupancy models.

Does seed mass drive interspecies variation in the effect of management practices on weed demography?

Optimizing the effect of management practices on weed population dynamics is challenging due to the difficulties in inferring demographic parameters in seed banks and their response to disturbance. Here, we used a long-term plant survey between 2006 and 2012 in 46 French vineyards and quantified the effects of management practices (tillage, mowing, and herbicide) on colonization, germination, and seed survival of 30 weed species in relation to their seed mass. To do so, we used a recent statistical approach to reliably estimate demographic parameters for plant populations with a seed bank using time series of presence-absence data, which we extended to account for interspecies variation in the effects of management practices on demographic parameters. Our main finding was that when the level of disturbance increased (i.e., in plots with a higher number of herbicides, tillage, or mowing treatments), colonization success and survival in large-seeded species increased faster than in small-seeded species. High disturbance through tillage increased survival in the seed bank of species with high seed mass. The application of herbicides increased germination, survival, and colonization probabilities of species with high seed mass. Mowing, representing habitats more competitive for light, increased the survival of species with high seed mass. Overall, the strong relationships between the effects of management practices and seed mass provide an indicator for predicting the dynamics of weed communities under disturbance.