Development and internal validation of the Simplified Mortality Score for the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU)

Glucose evaluation and management in the ICU (GEM-ICU): Protocol for a bi-centre cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Hyperglycaemia is common in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Glycaemic monitoring and effective glycaemic control with insulin are crucial in the ICU to improve patient outcomes. However, glycaemic control and insulin use vary between ICU patients and hypo- and hyperglycaemia occurs. Therefore, we aim to provide contemporary data on glycaemic control and management, and associated outcomes, in adult ICU patients. We hypothesise that the occurrence of hypoglycaemia in acutely admitted ICU patients is lower than that of hyperglycaemia.

METHODS

We will conduct a bi-centre cohort study of 300 acutely admitted adult ICU patients. Routine data will be collected retrospectively at baseline (ICU admission) and daily during ICU stay up to a maximum of 30 days. The primary outcome will be the number of patients with hypoglycaemia during their ICU stay. Secondary outcomes will be occurrence of severe hypoglycaemia, occurrence of hyperglycaemia, time below blood glucose target range, time above target range, all-cause mortality at Day 30, number of days alive without life support at Day 30 and number of days alive and out of hospital at Day 30. Process outcomes include the number of in-ICU days, glucose measurements (number of measurements and method) and use of insulin (including route of administration and dosage). All statistical analyses will be descriptive.

CONCLUSIONS

This cohort study will provide a contemporary overview of glucose evaluation and management practices in adult ICU patients and, thus, highlight potential areas for improvement through future clinical trials in this area.

Iloprost and Organ Dysfunction in Adults With Septic Shock and Endotheliopathy: A Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Soluble thrombomodulin is a marker of endotheliopathy, and iloprost may improve endothelial function. In patients with septic shock, high plasma levels of soluble thrombomodulin (>10 ng/mL) have been associated with worse organ dysfunction and mortality.

Objective

To assess the effects of treatment with iloprost vs placebo on the severity of organ failure in patients with septic shock and plasma levels of soluble thrombomodulin higher than 10 ng/mL.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This investigator-initiated, adaptive, parallel group, stratified, double-blind randomized clinical trial was conducted between November 1, 2019, and July 5, 2022, at 6 hospitals in Denmark. The trial had a maximum sample size of 380, with an interim analysis for futility only at 200 patients with 90 days of follow-up. In total, 279 adults in the intensive care unit (ICU) with septic shock and endotheliopathy were included.

Interventions

Patients were randomized 1:1 to masked intravenous infusion of iloprost, 1 ng/kg/min (n = 142), or placebo (n = 137) for 72 hours.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was mean daily Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score in the ICU adjusted for trial site and baseline SOFA score for the per-protocol population. SOFA scores for each of the 5 organ systems ranged from 0 to 4, with higher scores indicating more severe dysfunction (maximum score, 20). The secondary outcomes included serious adverse reactions and serious adverse events at 7 days and mortality at 90 days.

Results

Of 279 randomized patients, data from 278 were analyzed (median [IQR] age, 69 [58-77] years; 171 (62%) male), 142 in the iloprost group and 136 in the placebo group. The trial was stopped for futility at the planned interim analysis. The mean [IQR] daily SOFA score was 10.6 (6.4-14.8) in the iloprost group and 10.5 (5.9-15.5) in the placebo group (adjusted mean difference, 0.2 [95% CI, -0.8 to 1.2]; P = .70). Mortality at 90 days in the iloprost group was 57% (81 of 142) vs 51% (70 of 136) in the placebo group (adjusted relative risk, 1.12 [95% CI, 0.91-1.40]; P = .33). Serious adverse events occurred in 26 of 142 patients (18%) for the iloprost group vs 20 of 136 patients (15%) for the placebo group (adjusted relative risk, 1.25 [95% CI, 0.73-2.15]; P = .52). Only 1 serious adverse reaction was observed.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this randomized clinical trial of adults in the ICU with septic shock and severe endotheliopathy, infusion of iloprost, 1 ng/kg/min, for 72 hours did not reduce mean daily SOFA scores compared with placebo. In a clinical context, administration of iloprost will be unlikely to improve outcome in these patients.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04123444.

Platelet transfusions in adult ICU patients with thrombocytopenia: A sub-study of the PLOT-ICU inception cohort study

BACKGROUND

Platelet transfusions are frequently used in the intensive care unit (ICU), but current practices including used product types, volumes, doses and effects are unknown.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

Sub-study of the inception cohort study 'Thrombocytopenia and Platelet Transfusions in the ICU (PLOT-ICU)', including acutely admitted, adult ICU patients with thrombocytopenia (platelet count <150 × 109/L). The primary outcome was the number of patients receiving platelet transfusion in ICU by product type. Secondary outcomes included platelet transfusion details, platelet increments, bleeding, other transfusions and mortality.

RESULTS

Amongst 504 patients with thrombocytopenia from 43 hospitals in 10 countries in Europe and the United States, 20.8% received 565 platelet transfusions; 61.0% received pooled products, 21.9% received apheresis products and 17.1% received both with a median of 2 (interquartile range 1-4) days from admission to first transfusion. The median volume per transfusion was 253 mL (180-308 mL) and pooled products accounted for 59.1% of transfusions, however, this varied across countries. Most centres (73.8%) used fixed dosing (medians ranging from 2.0 to 3.5 × 1011 platelets/transfusion) whilst some (mainly in France) used weight-based dosing (ranging from 0.5 to 0.7 × 1011 platelets per 10 kg body weight). The median platelet count increment for a single prophylactic platelet transfusion was 2 (-1 to 8) × 109/L. Outcomes of patients with thrombocytopenia who did and did not receive platelet transfusions varied.

CONCLUSIONS

Among acutely admitted, adult ICU patients with thrombocytopenia, 20.8% received platelet transfusions in ICU of whom most received pooled products, but considerable variation was observed in product type, volumes and doses across countries. Prophylactic platelet transfusions were associated with limited increases in platelet counts.

Fluid administration and fluid accumulation in intensive care units-Protocol for an international inception cohort study (FLUID-ICU)

INTRODUCTION

Fluid accumulation is associated with adverse outcomes in critically ill patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). Fluid administration in the ICU may be a clinically relevant source of fluid accumulation in ICU patients. However, the extent is unknown, and no standard definition exists. We aim to provide epidemiological data on fluid accumulation, risk factors, use of fluid removal strategies, patient outcomes and describe current fluid administration practices in the ICU.

METHODS

We will conduct an international 14-day inception cohort study including a minimum of 1000 acutely admitted adult ICU patients. Data will be collected from medical records and laboratory reports at baseline and daily from ICU admission to discharge with a maximum of 28 days. Follow-up will be performed on day 90 after inclusion. The primary outcome is the number of patients with fluid accumulation. Secondary outcomes include the number of days with fluid accumulation, use of active fluid removal, days alive without life support at day 28, days alive and out of hospital day 90, and all-cause mortality at day 90. Furthermore, we will assess risk factors for fluid accumulation and its association with 90-day mortality and report on the types of fluid administration.

CONCLUSION

This international inception cohort study will provide contemporary epidemiological data on fluid administration and fluid accumulation in adult ICU patients.

Empirical meropenem versus piperacillin/tazobactam for adult patients with sepsis (EMPRESS) trial: Protocol

BACKGROUND

Piperacillin/tazobactam may be associated with less favourable outcomes than carbapenems in patients with severe bacterial infections, but the certainty of evidence is low.

METHODS

The Empirical Meropenem versus Piperacillin/Tazobactam for Adult Patients with Sepsis (EMPRESS) trial is an investigator-initiated, international, parallel-group, randomised, open-label, adaptive clinical trial with an integrated feasibility phase. We will randomise adult, critically ill patients with sepsis to empirical treatment with meropenem or piperacillin/tazobactam for up to 30 days. The primary outcome is 30-day all-cause mortality. The secondary outcomes are serious adverse reactions within 30 days; isolation precautions due to resistant bacteria within 30 days; days alive without life support and days alive and out of hospital within 30 and 90 days; 90- and 180-day all-cause mortality and 180-day health-related quality of life. EMPRESS will use Bayesian statistical models with weak to somewhat sceptical neutral priors. Adaptive analyses will be conducted after follow-up of the primary outcome for the first 400 participants concludes and after every 300 subsequent participants, with adaptive stopping for superiority/inferiority and practical equivalence (absolute risk difference <2.5%-points) and response-adaptive randomisation. The expected sample sizes in scenarios with no, small or large differences are 5189, 5859 and 2570 participants, with maximum 14,000 participants and ≥99% probability of conclusiveness across all scenarios.

CONCLUSIONS

EMPRESS will compare the effects of empirical meropenem against piperacillin/tazobactam in adult, critically ill patients with sepsis. Due to the pragmatic, adaptive design with high probability of conclusiveness, the trial results are expected to directly inform clinical practice.

Delirium and delirium severity screening in the intensive care-correspondence of screenings tools

BACKGROUND

Delirium severity scores are gaining acceptance for measuring delirium in the intensive care unit (ICU).

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to evaluate the concordance between the Confusion Assessment Method for the intensive care unit (CAM-ICU)-7 and the Intensive Care Delirium Screening Checklist (ICDSC) as delirium severity measurement tools.

METHODS

This was a prospective, comparative, observational multicentre study. This study was conducted in 18 Danish ICUs. Delirium was assessed in adult critically ill patients admitted to an ICU with a Richmond Agitation and Sedation Score (RASS) of -2 or above. ICU nurses assessed delirium with randomised paired delirium screening instruments, using the CAM-ICU, the ICDSC, and the CAM-ICU-7. The correlation between the CAM-ICU-7 and the ICDSC severity scores was evaluated for all predefined patient subgroups.

RESULTS

A total of 1126 paired screenings were conducted by 127 ICU nurses in 850 patients. The patients' median age was 70 years (interquartile range: 61-77), 40% (339/850) were female, and 54% (457/850) had at least one positive delirium score. Delirium severity ranges (CAM-ICU-7: 0-7; and ICDSC: 0-8) were positively correlated (Pearson's correlation coefficient, r = 0.83; p < 0.0001). The overall agreement between the CAM-ICU-7 and the ICDSC for delirium measurement (CAM-ICU-7: >2, and ICDSC: >3) was substantial (kappa = 0.74), but the agreement decreased to fair (kappa = 0.38) if a patient had a RASS less than 0.

CONCLUSIONS

The agreement between the CAM-ICU-7 and the ICDSC for delirium severity measurement was substantial but might be affected by the patient's sedation and agitation level at the time of assessment.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

Both CAM-ICU-7 and ICDSC can be implemented for delirium severity measurement. Attention is warranted in both scores if a patient has a RASS of -2.

Comparative Predictive Accuracies of the Simplified Mortality Score for the Intensive Care Unit, Sepsis Severity Score, and Standard Severity Scores for 90-day Mortality in Sepsis Patients

Background

The standard severity scores were used for predicting hospital mortality of intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Recently, the new predictive score, Simplified Mortality Score for the ICU (SMS-ICU), was developed for predicting 90-day mortality.

Objective

To validate the ability of the SMS-ICU and compare with sepsis severity score (SSS) and original severity scores for predicting 90-day mortality in sepsis patients.

Method

An analysis of retrospective data was conducted in the ICU of a university teaching hospital. Also, 90-day mortality was used for the primary outcome.

Results

A total of 1,161 patients with sepsis were included. The 90-day mortality was 42.4%. The SMS-ICU presented the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.71, whereas the SSS had significantly higher AUROC than that of the SMS-ICU (AUROC 0.876, p < 0.001). The acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II and IV, and the simplified acute physiology scores (SAPS) II demonstrated good discrimination, with an AUROC above 0.90. The SMS-ICU provides poor calibration for 90-day mortality prediction, similar to the SSS and other standard severity scores. Furthermore, 90-day mortality was underestimated by the SMS-ICU, which had a standardized mortality ratio (SMR) of 1.36. The overall performance by Brier score demonstrated that the SMS-ICU was inferior to the SSS (0.222 and 0.169, respectively). Also, SAPS II presented the best overall performance with a Brier score of 0.092.

Conclusion

The SMS-ICU indicated lower performance compared to the SSS, standard severity scores. Consequently, modifications are required to enhance the performance of the SMS-ICU.

How to cite this article

Sathaporn N, Khwannimit B. Comparative Predictive Accuracies of the Simplified Mortality Score for the Intensive Care Unit, Sepsis Severity Score, and Standard Severity Scores for 90-day Mortality in Sepsis Patients. Indian J Crit Care Med 2024;28(4):343-348.

Is it Time to Develop an Indian Sepsis-related Mortality Prediction Score?

How to cite this article: Dedeepiya VD. Is it Time to Develop an Indian Sepsis-related Mortality Prediction Score? Indian J Crit Care Med 2024;28(4):320-322.

Platelet transfusions in adult thrombocytopenic ICU patients: Protocol for a sub-study of the PLOT-ICU cohort

INTRODUCTION

Platelet transfusions are frequently used in intensive care unit (ICU) patients, but contemporary epidemiological data are sparse. We aim to present contemporary international data on the use of platelet transfusions in adult ICU patients with thrombocytopenia.

METHODS

This is a protocol and statistical analysis plan for a post hoc sub-study of 504 thrombocytopenic patients from the 'Thrombocytopenia and platelet transfusions in ICU patients: an international inception cohort study (PLOT-ICU)'. The primary outcome will be the number of patients receiving platelet transfusion in the ICU reported according to the type of product received (apheresis-derived versus pooled whole-blood-derived transfusions). Secondary platelet transfusion outcomes will include platelet transfusion volumes; timing of platelet transfusion; approach to platelet transfusion dosing (fixed dosing versus weight-based dosing) and platelet count increments for prophylactic transfusions. Secondary clinical outcomes will include the number of patients receiving red blood cell- and plasma transfusions during ICU stay; the number of patients who bled in the ICU, the number of patients who had a new thrombosis in the ICU, and the number of patients who died. The duration of follow-up was 90 days. Baseline characteristics and secondary clinical outcomes will be stratified according to platelet transfusion status in the ICU and severity of thrombocytopenia. Data will be presented descriptively.

CONCLUSIONS

The outlined study will provide detailed epidemiological data on the use of platelet transfusions in adult ICU patients with thrombocytopenia using data from the large international PLOT-ICU cohort study. The findings will inform the design of future randomised trials evaluating platelet transfusions in ICU patients.

Albumin use in patients with septic shock-Post-hoc analyses of an international randomised fluid trial

BACKGROUND

Albumin administration is suggested in patients with sepsis and septic shock who have received large volumes of crystalloids. Given lack of firm evidence, clinical practice variation may exist. To address this, we investigated if patient characteristics or trial site were associated with albumin use in septic shock.

METHODS

We conducted a post-hoc study of the CLASSIC international, randomised clinical trial of fluid volumes in septic shock. Associations between selected baseline variables and trial site with albumin use during ICU stay were assessed in Cox models considering death, ICU discharge, and loss-to-follow-up as competing events. Baseline variables were first assessed individually, adjusted for treatment allocation (restrictive vs. standard IV fluid), and then adjusted for allocation and the other baseline variables. Site was assessed in a model adjusted for allocation and baseline variables.

RESULTS

We analysed 1541 of 1554 patients randomised in CLASSIC (99.2%). During ICU stay, 36.3% of patients in the restrictive-fluid group and 52.6% in the standard-fluid group received albumin. Gastrointestinal focus of infection and higher doses of norepinephrine were most strongly associated with albumin use (subgroup with highest quartile of norepinephrine doses, hazard ratio (HR) 2.58, 95% CI 1.89 to 3.53). HRs for associations between site and albumin use ranged from 0.11 (95% CI 0.05 to 0.26) to 1.70 (95% CI 1.06 to 2.74); test for overall effect of site: p < .001.

CONCLUSIONS

In adults with septic shock, gastrointestinal focus of infection and higher doses of norepinephrine at baseline were associated with albumin use, which also varied substantially between sites.

Restrictive versus standard IV fluid therapy in adult ICU patients with septic shock-Bayesian analyses of the CLASSIC trial

BACKGROUND

The CLASSIC trial assessed the effects of restrictive versus standard intravenous (IV) fluid therapy in adult intensive care unit (ICU) patients with septic shock. This pre-planned study provides a probabilistic interpretation and evaluates heterogeneity in treatment effects (HTE).

METHODS

We analysed mortality, serious adverse events (SAEs), serious adverse reactions (SARs) and days alive without life-support within 90 days using Bayesian models with weakly informative priors. HTE on mortality was assessed according to five baseline variables: disease severity, vasopressor dose, lactate levels, creatinine values and IV fluid volumes given before randomisation.

RESULTS

The absolute difference in mortality was 0.2%-points (95% credible interval: -5.0 to 5.4; 47% posterior probability of benefit [risk difference <0.0%-points]) with restrictive IV fluid. The posterior probabilities of benefits with restrictive IV fluid were 72% for SAEs, 52% for SARs and 61% for days alive without life-support. The posterior probabilities of no clinically important differences (absolute risk difference ≤2%-points) between the groups were 56% for mortality, 49% for SAEs, 90% for SARs and 38% for days alive without life-support. There was 97% probability of HTE for previous IV fluid volumes analysed continuously, that is, potentially relatively lower mortality of restrictive IV fluids with higher previous IV fluids. No substantial evidence of HTE was found in the other analyses.

CONCLUSION

We could not rule out clinically important effects of restrictive IV fluid therapy on mortality, SAEs or days alive without life-support, but substantial effects on SARs were unlikely. IV fluids given before randomisation might interact with IV fluid strategy.

Long-term outcomes with haloperidol versus placebo in acutely admitted adult ICU patients with delirium

PURPOSE

We assessed long-term outcomes in acutely admitted adult patients with delirium treated in intensive care unit (ICU) with haloperidol versus placebo.

METHODS

We conducted pre-planned analyses of 1-year outcomes in the Agents Intervening against Delirium in the ICU (AID-ICU) trial, including mortality and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) assessed by Euroqol (EQ) 5-dimension 5-level questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L) index values and EQ visual analogue scale (EQ VAS) (deceased patients were assigned the numeric value zero). Outcomes were analysed using logistic and linear regressions with bootstrapping and G-computation, all with adjustment for the stratification variables (site and delirium motor subtype) and multiple imputations for missing HRQoL values.

RESULTS

At 1-year follow-up, we obtained vital status for 96.2% and HRQoL data for 83.3% of the 1000 randomised patients. One-year mortality was 224/501 (44.7%) in the haloperidol group versus 251/486 (51.6%) in the placebo group, with an adjusted absolute risk difference of - 6.4%-points (95% confidence interval [CI] - 12.8%-points to - 0.2%-points; P = 0.045). These results were largely consistent across the secondary analyses. For HRQoL, the adjusted mean differences were 0.04 (95% CI - 0.03 to 0.11; P = 0.091) for EQ-5D-5L-5L index values, and 3.3 (95% CI - 9.3 to 17.5; P = 0.142) for EQ VAS.

CONCLUSIONS

In acutely admitted adult ICU patients with delirium, haloperidol treatment reduced mortality at 1-year follow-up, but did not statistically significantly improve HRQoL.

Thrombocytopenia and platelet transfusions in ICU patients: an international inception cohort study (PLOT-ICU)

PURPOSE

Thrombocytopenia (platelet count < 150 × 109/L) is common in intensive care unit (ICU) patients and is likely associated with worse outcomes. In this study we present international contemporary data on thrombocytopenia in ICU patients.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study in adult ICU patients in 52 ICUs across 10 countries. We assessed frequencies of thrombocytopenia, use of platelet transfusions and clinical outcomes including mortality. We evaluated pre-selected potential risk factors for the development of thrombocytopenia during ICU stay and associations between thrombocytopenia at ICU admission and 90-day mortality using pre-specified logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS

We analysed 1166 ICU patients; the median age was 63 years and 39.5% were female. Overall, 43.2% (95% confidence interval (CI) 40.4-46.1) had thrombocytopenia; 23.4% (20-26) had thrombocytopenia at ICU admission, and 19.8% (17.6-22.2) developed thrombocytopenia during their ICU stay. Absence of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), non-cancer-related immune deficiency, liver failure, male sex, septic shock, and bleeding at ICU admission were associated with the development of thrombocytopenia during ICU stay. Among patients with thrombocytopenia, 22.6% received platelet transfusion(s), and 64.3% of in-ICU transfusions were prophylactic. Patients with thrombocytopenia had higher occurrences of bleeding and death, fewer days alive without the use of life-support, and fewer days alive and out of hospital. Thrombocytopenia at ICU admission was associated with 90-day mortality (adjusted odds ratio 1.7; 95% CI 1.19-2.42).

CONCLUSION

Thrombocytopenia occurred in 43% of critically ill patients and was associated with worse outcomes including increased mortality. Platelet transfusions were given to 23% of patients with thrombocytopenia and most were prophylactic.

Albumin administration in septic shock-Protocol for post-hoc analyses of data from a multicentre RCT

BACKGROUND

Intravenous (IV) albumin is suggested for patients with septic shock who have received large amounts of IV crystalloids; a conditional recommendation based on moderate certainty of evidence. Clinical variation in the administration of IV albumin in septic shock may exist according to patient characteristics and location.

METHODS

This is a protocol and statistical analysis plan for a post-hoc secondary study of the Conservative versus Liberal Approach to Fluid Therapy of Septic Shock in Intensive Care (CLASSIC) RCT of 1554 adult ICU patients with septic shock. We will assess if specific baseline characteristics or trial site are associated with the administration of IV albumin during ICU stay using Cox models with competing events. All models will be adjusted for the treatment allocation in CLASSIC (restrictive vs. standard IV fluid), and all analyses will consider competing events (death, ICU discharge and loss-to-follow-up). We will present results as hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals and p-values for the associations of baseline characteristics or site with IV albumin administration. Between-group differences (interactions) will be assessed using p-values from likelihood ratio tests. All results will be considered exploratory only.

DISCUSSION

This secondary study of the CLASSIC RCT may yield important insight into potential practice variation in the administration of albumin in septic shock.

Atrial Fibrillation (AFIB) in the ICU: Incidence, Risk Factors, and Outcomes: The International AFIB-ICU Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES

To assess the incidence, risk factors, and outcomes of atrial fibrillation (AF) in the ICU and to describe current practice in the management of AF.

DESIGN

Multicenter, prospective, inception cohort study.

SETTING

Forty-four ICUs in 12 countries in four geographical regions.

SUBJECTS

Adult, acutely admitted ICU patients without a history of persistent/permanent AF or recent cardiac surgery were enrolled; inception periods were from October 2020 to June 2021.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

We included 1,423 ICU patients and analyzed 1,415 (99.4%), among whom 221 patients had 539 episodes of AF. Most (59%) episodes were diagnosed with continuous electrocardiogram monitoring. The incidence of AF was 15.6% (95% CI, 13.8-17.6), of which newly developed AF was 13.3% (11.5-15.1). A history of arterial hypertension, paroxysmal AF, sepsis, or high disease severity at ICU admission was associated with AF. Used interventions to manage AF were fluid bolus 19% (95% CI 16-23), magnesium 16% (13-20), potassium 15% (12-19), amiodarone 51% (47-55), beta-1 selective blockers 34% (30-38), calcium channel blockers 4% (2-6), digoxin 16% (12-19), and direct current cardioversion in 4% (2-6). Patients with AF had more ischemic, thromboembolic (13.6% vs 7.9%), and severe bleeding events (5.9% vs 2.1%), and higher mortality (41.2% vs 25.2%) than those without AF. The adjusted cause-specific hazard ratio for 90-day mortality by AF was 1.38 (95% CI, 0.95-1.99).

CONCLUSIONS

In ICU patients, AF occurred in one of six and was associated with different conditions. AF was associated with worse outcomes while not statistically significantly associated with 90-day mortality in the adjusted analyses. We observed variations in the diagnostic and management strategies for AF.

Long-term effects of restriction of intravenous fluid in adult ICU patients with septic shock

PURPOSE

To assess long-term outcomes of restrictive versus standard intravenous (IV) fluid therapy in adult intensive care unit (ICU) patients with septic shock included in the European Conservative versus Liberal Approach to Fluid Therapy in Septic Shock in Intensive Care (CLASSIC) trial.

METHODS

We conducted the pre-planned analyses of mortality, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) using EuroQol (EQ)-5D-5L index values and EQ visual analogue scale (VAS), and cognitive function using Mini Montreal Cognitive Assessment (Mini MoCA) test at 1 year. Deceased patients were assigned numerical zero for HRQoL as a state equal to death and zero for cognitive function outcomes as worst possible score, and we used multiple imputation for missing data on HRQoL and cognitive function.

RESULTS

Among 1554 randomized patients, we obtained 1-year data on mortality in 97.9% of patients, HRQoL in 91.3%, and cognitive function in 86.3%. One-year mortality was 385/746 (51.3%) in the restrictive-fluid group versus 383/767 (49.9%) in the standard-fluid group, absolute risk difference 1.5%-points [99% confidence interval (CI) - 4.8 to 7.8]. Mean differences were 0.00 (99% CI - 0.06 to 0.05) for EQ-5D-5L index values, - 0.65 for EQ VAS (- 5.40 to 4.08), and - 0.14 for Mini MoCA (- 1.59 to 1.14) for the restrictive-fluid group versus the standard-fluid group. The results for survivors only were similar in both groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Among adult ICU patients with septic shock, restrictive versus standard IV fluid therapy resulted in similar survival, HRQoL, and cognitive function at 1 year, but clinically important differences could not be ruled out.

External Validation of Mortality Prediction Models for Critical Illness Reveals Preserved Discrimination but Poor Calibration

OBJECTIVES

In a recent scoping review, we identified 43 mortality prediction models for critically ill patients. We aimed to assess the performances of these models through external validation.

DESIGN

Multicenter study.

SETTING

External validation of models was performed in the Simple Intensive Care Studies-I (SICS-I) and the Finnish Acute Kidney Injury (FINNAKI) study.

PATIENTS

The SICS-I study consisted of 1,075 patients, and the FINNAKI study consisted of 2,901 critically ill patients.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

For each model, we assessed: 1) the original publications for the data needed for model reconstruction, 2) availability of the variables, 3) model performance in two independent cohorts, and 4) the effects of recalibration on model performance. The models were recalibrated using data of the SICS-I and subsequently validated using data of the FINNAKI study. We evaluated overall model performance using various indexes, including the (scaled) Brier score, discrimination (area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristics), calibration (intercepts and slopes), and decision curves. Eleven models (26%) could be externally validated. The Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, APACHE IV, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS)-Reduced (SAPS-R)' and Simplified Mortality Score for the ICU models showed the best scaled Brier scores of 0.11' 0.10' 0.10' and 0.06' respectively. SAPS II, APACHE II, and APACHE IV discriminated best; overall discrimination of models ranged from area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristics of 0.63 (0.61-0.66) to 0.83 (0.81-0.85). We observed poor calibration in most models, which improved to at least moderate after recalibration of intercepts and slopes. The decision curve showed a positive net benefit in the 0-60% threshold probability range for APACHE IV and SAPS-R.

CONCLUSIONS

In only 11 out of 43 available mortality prediction models, the performance could be studied using two cohorts of critically ill patients. External validation showed that the discriminative ability of APACHE II, APACHE IV, and SAPS II was acceptable to excellent, whereas calibration was poor.

Haloperidol for the Treatment of Delirium in ICU Patients

BACKGROUND

Haloperidol is frequently used to treat delirium in patients in the intensive care unit (ICU), but evidence of its effect is limited.

METHODS

In this multicenter, blinded, placebo-controlled trial, we randomly assigned adult patients with delirium who had been admitted to the ICU for an acute condition to receive intravenous haloperidol (2.5 mg 3 times daily plus 2.5 mg as needed up to a total maximum daily dose of 20 mg) or placebo. Haloperidol or placebo was administered in the ICU for as long as delirium continued and as needed for recurrences. The primary outcome was the number of days alive and out of the hospital at 90 days after randomization.

RESULTS

A total of 1000 patients underwent randomization; 510 were assigned to the haloperidol group and 490 to the placebo group. Among these patients, 987 (98.7%) were included in the final analyses (501 in the haloperidol group and 486 in the placebo group). Primary outcome data were available for 963 patients (97.6%). At 90 days, the mean number of days alive and out of the hospital was 35.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 32.9 to 38.6) in the haloperidol group and 32.9 (95% CI, 29.9 to 35.8) in the placebo group, with an adjusted mean difference of 2.9 days (95% CI, -1.2 to 7.0) (P = 0.22). Mortality at 90 days was 36.3% in the haloperidol group and 43.3% in the placebo group (adjusted absolute difference, -6.9 percentage points [95% CI, -13.0 to -0.6]). Serious adverse reactions occurred in 11 patients in the haloperidol group and in 9 patients in the placebo group.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients in the ICU with delirium, treatment with haloperidol did not lead to a significantly greater number of days alive and out of the hospital at 90 days than placebo. (Funded by Innovation Fund Denmark and others; AID-ICU ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03392376; EudraCT number, 2017-003829-15.).

Platelet transfusions and thrombocytopenia in intensive care units: protocol for an international inception cohort study (PLOT‐ICU)

Introduction

Thrombocytopenia is frequent in intensive care unit (ICU) patients and has been associated with worse outcome. Platelet transfusions are often used in the management of ICU patients with severe thrombocytopenia. However, the reported frequencies of thrombocytopenia and platelet transfusion practices in the ICU vary considerably. Therefore, we aim to provide contemporary epidemiological data on thrombocytopenia and platelet transfusion practices in the ICU.

Methods

We will conduct an international inception cohort, including at least 1000 acutely admitted adult ICU patients. Routinely available data will be collected at baseline (ICU admission), and daily during ICU stay up to a maximum of 90 days. The primary outcome will be the number of patients with thrombocytopenia (a recorded platelet count < 150 × 10⁹/L) at baseline and/or during ICU stay. Secondary outcomes include mortality, days alive and out of hospital, days alive without life‐support, the number of patients with at least one bleeding episode, at least one thromboembolic event and at least one platelet transfusion in the ICU, the number of platelet transfusions and the indications for transfusion. The primary and secondary outcomes will be presented descriptively. In addition, we will assess risk factors for developing thrombocytopenia during ICU stay and the association between thrombocytopenia at baseline and 90‐day mortality using logistic regression analyses.

Conclusion

The outlined international PLOT‐ICU cohort study will provide contemporary epidemiological data on the burden and clinical significance of thrombocytopenia in adult ICU patients and describe the current platelet transfusion practice.

Conservative vs. liberal fluid therapy in septic shock - Protocol for secondary Bayesian analyses of the CLASSIC trial

BACKGROUND

Clinical equipoise exists regarding intravenous (IV) fluid volumes in sepsis. The Conservative vs. Liberal Approach to fluid therapy of Septic Shock in Intensive Care (CLASSIC) trial investigates the effect of restricted vs. standard IV fluid therapy in 1554 adult intensive care unit patients with septic shock.

METHODS

This protocol describes secondary Bayesian analyses of the primary outcome (90-day all-cause mortality) and three secondary outcomes at day 90. We will analyse all binary outcomes with adjusted Bayesian logistic regressions and present results as conditional relative risks and risk differences with 95% credibility intervals (CrIs). The secondary count outcome will be analysed using adjusted Bayesian linear regression with results summarised as conditional mean differences and ratios of means with 95% Crls. We will use weakly informative priors for the primary analyses, and sceptical and evidence-based priors in the sensitivity analyses. Exact probabilities will be presented for any benefit/harm, clinically important benefit/harm and no clinically important difference. We will assess whether heterogeneity of treatment effects on mortality is present using Bayesian hierarchical models in subgroups and on the continuous scale using models with interactions according to five baseline variables assessing the overall severity of illness and the degree of circulatory and renal impairment.

DISCUSSION

The outlined analyses will supplement the primary analysis of the CLASSIC trial by describing probabilities of beneficial and harmful effects and evaluating heterogeneity of treatment effects in a framework that may be easier to interpret for researchers and clinicians.

Restriction of Intravenous Fluid in ICU Patients with Septic Shock

BACKGROUND

Intravenous fluids are recommended for the treatment of patients who are in septic shock, but higher fluid volumes have been associated with harm in patients who are in the intensive care unit (ICU).

METHODS

In this international, randomized trial, we assigned patients with septic shock in the ICU who had received at least 1 liter of intravenous fluid to receive restricted intravenous fluid or standard intravenous fluid therapy; patients were included if the onset of shock had been within 12 hours before screening. The primary outcome was death from any cause within 90 days after randomization.

RESULTS

We enrolled 1554 patients; 770 were assigned to the restrictive-fluid group and 784 to the standard-fluid group. Primary outcome data were available for 1545 patients (99.4%). In the ICU, the restrictive-fluid group received a median of 1798 ml of intravenous fluid (interquartile range, 500 to 4366); the standard-fluid group received a median of 3811 ml (interquartile range, 1861 to 6762). At 90 days, death had occurred in 323 of 764 patients (42.3%) in the restrictive-fluid group, as compared with 329 of 781 patients (42.1%) in the standard-fluid group (adjusted absolute difference, 0.1 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -4.7 to 4.9; P = 0.96). In the ICU, serious adverse events occurred at least once in 221 of 751 patients (29.4%) in the restrictive-fluid group and in 238 of 772 patients (30.8%) in the standard-fluid group (adjusted absolute difference, -1.7 percentage points; 99% CI, -7.7 to 4.3). At 90 days after randomization, the numbers of days alive without life support and days alive and out of the hospital were similar in the two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Among adult patients with septic shock in the ICU, intravenous fluid restriction did not result in fewer deaths at 90 days than standard intravenous fluid therapy. (Funded by the Novo Nordisk Foundation and others; CLASSIC ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03668236.).

Development of a core outcome set for general intensive care unit patients-A protocol

INTRODUCTION

Different outcomes are reported in randomised clinical trials (RCTs) in intensive care unit (ICU) patients, and no core outcome set (COS) is available for ICU patients in general. Accordingly, we aim to develop a COS for ICU patients in general.

METHODS

The COS will be developed in accordance with the Core Outcome Measures in Effectiveness Trials (COMET) Handbook, using a modified Delphi consensus process and semi-structured interviews involving adults who have survived acute admission to an ICU, family members, clinicians, researchers and other stakeholders. The modified Delphi process will include two steps. Step 1: conduction of a modified Delphi survey, developed and informed by combining the outputs of a literature search of outcomes in previous COSs and semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders. We plan at least two survey rounds to obtain consensus and refine the COS. Step 2: a consensus process regarding instruments or definitions to be recommended for the measurements of the outcomes selected in Step 1. A 'patient and public involvement panel' consisting of a smaller group of patients, family members, clinicians and researchers will be included in the development, analysis and interpretation of the COS.

DISCUSSION

The outlined multiple method studies will establish a COS for ICU patients in general, which may be used to increase the standardisation and comparability of results of RCTs conducted in patients in the ICU setting.

A catalogue of tools and variables from crisis and routine care to support decision-making about allocation of intensive care beds and ventilator treatment during pandemics: Scoping review

PURPOSE

This scoping review sought to identify objective factors to assist clinicians and policy-makers in making consistent, objective and ethically sound decisions about resource allocation when healthcare rationing is inevitable.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Review of guidelines and tools used in ICUs, hospital wards and emergency departments on how to best allocate intensive care beds and ventilators either during routine care or developed during previous epidemics, and association with patient outcomes during and after hospitalisation.

RESULTS

Eighty publications from 20 countries reporting accuracy or validity of prognostic tools/algorithms, or significant correlation between prognostic variables and clinical outcomes met our eligibility criteria: twelve pandemic guidelines/triage protocols/consensus statements, twenty-two pandemic algorithms, and 46 prognostic tools/variables from non-crisis situations. Prognostic indicators presented here can be combined to create locally-relevant triage algorithms for clinicians and policy makers deciding about allocation of ICU beds and ventilators during a pandemic. No consensus was found on the ethical issues to incorporate in the decision to admit or triage out of intensive care.

CONCLUSIONS

This review provides a unique reference intended as a discussion starter for clinicians and policy makers to consider formalising an objective a locally-relevant triage consensus document that enhances confidence in decision-making during healthcare rationing of critical care and ventilator resources.

Does rocking motion calm delirious patients in ICU? A multicentre randomised clinical trial protocol (RockingICU)

BACKGROUND

Rocking chair therapy has been explored in patients with dementia to promote the feeling of relaxation, but not in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patients with delirium.

AIM

The aim is to investigate the effect of a chair with or without rocking motion on the duration of delirium and intensity of agitation in critically ill patients admitted to the ICU.

DESIGN

This is an investigator-initiated pragmatic, multicentre, parallel-grouped, centrally randomised, stratified, data analyst-blinded trial.

METHOD

We will include patients for 1:1 web-based randomisation, stratified by site in patients 18 y or older with a positive delirium score identified by a validated tool. We will exclude patients mainly due to mobilisation restrictions, body weight exceeding 130 kg, inability to provide consent, and presence of multiresistant bacteria or viral droplet infections. The intervention group will receive a minimum of 20 min of rocking therapy daily. The control group will be transferred to the same type of chair but without rocking therapy daily. A power calculation with a risk reduction of 20%, a power of 80% with an alpha cut-off on 5% and further 20% inclusion gives 76 patients in intervention and control group reaching a total of n = 152 inclusion in the trial.

CONCLUSION

The RockingICU trial will provide important new knowledge and raise research questions regarding nonpharmacological interventions to alleviate delirium in ICU patients.

New-onset atrial fibrillation in the intensive care unit: Protocol for an international inception cohort study (AFIB-ICU)

INTRODUCTION

New-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) is frequently observed in critically ill patients and may be associated with prolonged hospital stay and increased mortality. Considerable variation exists in the reported frequencies of NOAF due to the lack of a standardised definition and detection method. Importantly, there are limited data on NOAF in the intensive care unit (ICU). Thus, we aim to provide contemporary epidemiological data on NOAF in the ICU.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We have designed an international inception cohort study including at least 1,000 consecutive adult patients acutely admitted to the ICU without prior history of persistent or permanent AF. We will present data on the incidence, risk factors, used management strategies and outcomes of NOAF. We will register data daily during stay in the ICU for a maximum of 90 days after admission. The incidence of NOAF and management strategies used will be presented descriptively, and we will use Cox regression analyses including competing risk analyses to assess risk factors for NOAF and any association with 90-day mortality.

CONCLUSION

The outlined international AFIB-ICU inception cohort study will provide contemporary data on the incidence, risk factors, used management strategies and outcomes of NOAF in adult ICU patients.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This observational study poses no risk to the included patients. All participating sites will obtain relevant approvals according to national laws before patient enrollment. Funding sources will have no influence on data handling, analyses or writing of the manuscript. The study report(s) will be submitted to an international peer-reviewed journal.

Risk factors for long-term cognitive impairment in ICU survivors: A multicenter, prospective cohort study

PURPOSE

To describe the incidence of and risk factors for impaired cognitive function in intensive care unit (ICU) survivors. We hypothesized that age, severity of illness, and days in coma, delirium, mechanical ventilation in the ICU would be associated with impaired cognitive function.

METHODS

We included all adults, alive 6 months after acute admission to one of the 24 Danish ICUs participating in the AID-ICU cohort study. Trained professionals assessed cognitive function in patients' homes or in outpatient clinics using the Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status (RBANS) 6 months after ICU admission. Potential risk factors for cognitive impairment were analyzed with linear regression models.

RESULTS

In total, 237 ICU patients were alive 6 months after ICU admission and did not meet the exclusion criteria. A total of 106 patients completed the cognitive assessment. The median RBANS global cognitive score was 76 (interquartile range, 62-91), and 52% had a global cognitive score 1.5 SD below the normative mean and 36% displayed a global cognitive score 2 SD below the normative mean, similar to that of Alzheimer's disease. Higher age was associated with poorer RBANS global cognitive score (estimate -0.35 [95% confidence interval -0.63 to -0.07] per year).

CONCLUSIONS

In this multicenter study of adult ICU survivors, cognitive impairment was frequent and severe in those assessed at 6 months. Higher age was a risk factor for cognitive impairment, but events related to the ICU stay were not associated with poorer cognitive performance at 6 months.

Customization and external validation of the Simplified Mortality Score for the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU) in Brazilian critically ill patients

PURPOSE

To customize and externally validate the recently proposed Simplified Mortality Score for the ICU (SMS-ICU, a simple score for 90-day mortality that has no need for ancillary testing results) for in-hospital mortality and to compare its performance to SAPS 3.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We used data from two distinct large cohorts of adult Brazilian patients with unplanned ICU admissions to perform a first-level customization (43,017 patients admitted to 78 ICUs) of the original SMS-ICU score for in-hospital mortality and, sequentially, externally validate it (313,365 patients admitted to 99 ICUs). Performance of SMS-ICU was assessed through measurements of discrimination and calibration and compared with SAPS 3.

RESULTS

In the validation cohort, median SMS-ICU was 13 (IQR 8-16) points and median SAPS 3 was 44 (IQR 36-51). Discrimination of SMS-ICU was good (AUC 0.817; 95% CI 0.814-0.819) but slightly lower than of SAPS 3 (AUC 0.845; 95% CI 0.843-0.848;). The customized SMS-ICU predictions were comparable to SAPS 3 in terms of calibration.

CONCLUSION

In this external validation of the SMS-ICU in a large Brazilian cohort, we observed good discrimination of SMS-ICU and acceptable calibration after first-level customization. SMS-ICU can be used as a measure of illness severity for acutely admitted ICU patients in clinical studies.

Mortality prediction models in the adult critically ill: A scoping review

BACKGROUND

Mortality prediction models are applied in the intensive care unit (ICU) to stratify patients into different risk categories and to facilitate benchmarking. To ensure that the correct prediction models are applied for these purposes, the best performing models must be identified. As a first step, we aimed to establish a systematic review of mortality prediction models in critically ill patients.

METHODS

Mortality prediction models were searched in four databases using the following criteria: developed for use in adult ICU patients in high-income countries, with mortality as primary or secondary outcome. Characteristics and performance measures of the models were summarized. Performance was presented in terms of discrimination, calibration and overall performance measures presented in the original publication.

RESULTS

In total, 43 mortality prediction models were included in the final analysis. In all, 15 models were only internally validated (35%), 13 externally (30%) and 10 (23%) were both internally and externally validated by the original researchers. Discrimination was assessed in 42 models (98%). Commonly used calibration measures were the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (60%) and the calibration plot (28%). Calibration was not assessed in 11 models (26%). Overall performance was assessed in the Brier score (19%) and the Nagelkerke's R² (4.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality prediction models have varying methodology, and validation and performance of individual models differ. External validation by the original researchers is often lacking and head-to-head comparisons are urgently needed to identify the best performing mortality prediction models for guiding clinical care and research in different settings and populations.

Mortality Prediction in Rural Kenya: A Cohort Study of Mechanical Ventilation in Critically Ill Patients

Critical care is expanding in low- and middle-income countries. Yet, due to factors such as missing data and different disease patterns, predictive scores often fail to adequately predict the high rates of mortality observed.

THAI-ICU score as a simplified severity score for critically ill patients in a resource limited setting: Result from SEA-AKI study group

PURPOSE

To create a simplified ICU scoring system to predict mortality in critically ill patients that can be feasibly applied in resource limited setting with good performance of predicting hospital mortality.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective study from prospective cohort was created consisting of adult patients who were admitted to an ICU of 17 centers across Thailand from 2013 to 2015. A development cohort (n = 3503) and a validation cohort (n = 1909) were randomly selected from the available enrollment data.

RESULTS

In the development cohort, the predictors of the simplified score 6 variable model were low Glasgow coma score (GCS), low mean arterial pressure or need vasopressor, positive net-fluid balance, tachypnea, thrombocytopenia, and high blood urea nitrogen. In the validation study of THAI-ICU, AUC (95%CI) was 0.81(0.78-0.83). At the optimum cutoff value of 9; the sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio were 72%, 73%, and 2.72 respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow - C statistic was 13.5 (p = .2) and the Brier score 95% CI was 0.16 (0.15, 0.17).

CONCLUSIONS

The THAI-ICU score is a new simplified severity score for predicting hospital mortality. The simplicity of the score will increase the possibility to apply in resource limited settings.

Agents intervening against delirium in the intensive care unit (AID-ICU) - Protocol for a randomised placebo-controlled trial of haloperidol in patients with delirium in the ICU

BACKGROUND

Delirium among patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) is a common condition associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Haloperidol is the most frequently used pharmacologic intervention, but its use is not supported by firm evidence. Therefore, we are conducting Agents Intervening against Delirium in the Intensive Care Unit (AID-ICU) trial to assess the benefits and harms of haloperidol for the treatment of ICU-acquired delirium.

METHODS

AID-ICU is an investigator-initiated, pragmatic, international, randomised, blinded, parallel-group, trial allocating adult ICU patients with manifest delirium 1:1 to haloperidol or placebo. Trial participants will receive intravenous 2.5 mg haloperidol three times daily or matching placebo (isotonic saline 0.9%) if they are delirious. If needed, a maximum of 20 mg/daily haloperidol/placebo is given. An escape protocol, not including haloperidol, is part of the trial protocol. The primary outcome is days alive out of the hospital within 90 days post-randomisation. Secondary outcomes are number of days without delirium or coma, serious adverse reactions to haloperidol, usage of escape medication, number of days alive without mechanical ventilation; mortality, health-related quality-of-life and cognitive function at 1-year follow-up. A sample size of 1000 patients is required to detect a 7-day improvement or worsening of the mean days alive out of the hospital, type 1 error risk of 5% and power 90%.

PERSPECTIVE

The AID-ICU trial is based on gold standard methodology applied to a large sample of clinically representative patients and will provide pivotal high-quality data on the benefits and harms of haloperidol for the treatment ICU-acquired delirium.

External validation of the Simplified Mortality Score for the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU)

BACKGROUND

The Simplified Mortality Score for the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU) is a clinical prediction model, which estimates the risk of 90-day mortality in acutely ill adult ICU patients using 7 readily available variables. We aimed to externally validate the SMS-ICU and compare its discrimination with existing prediction models used with 90-day mortality as the outcome.

METHODS

We externally validated the SMS-ICU using data from 3282 patients included in the Stress Ulcer Prophylaxis in the Intensive Care Unit trial, which randomised acutely ill adult ICU patients with risk factors for gastrointestinal bleeding to prophylactic pantoprazole or placebo in 33 ICUs in Europe. We assessed discrimination, calibration and overall performance of the SMS-ICU and compared discrimination with the commonly used and more complex SAPS II and SOFA scores.

RESULTS

Mortality at day 90 was 30.7%. The discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) for the SMS-ICU was 0.67 (95% CI: 0.65-0.69), as compared with 0.68 (95% CI: 0.66-0.70, P = 0.35) for SAPS II and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.61-0.65, P < 0.001) for the SOFA score. Calibration (intercept and slope) was 0.001 and 0.786, respectively, and Nagelkerke's R² (overall performance) was 0.06. The proportions of missing data for the SMS-ICU, SAPS II and SOFA scores were 0.2%, 8.5% and 6.8%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Discrimination for 90-day mortality of the SMS-ICU in this cohort was poor, but similar to SAPS II and better than that of the SOFA score with markedly less missing data.

Performance of SAPS II according to ICU length of stay: A Danish nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

Intensive care unit (ICU) severity scores use data available at admission or shortly thereafter. There are limited contemporary data on how the prognostic performance of these scores is affected by ICU length of stay (LOS).

METHODS

We conducted a nationwide cohort study using routinely collected health data from the Danish Intensive Care Database. We included adults with ICU admissions ≥24 hours between 1 January 2012 and 30 June 2016, who survived to ICU discharge and had valid ICU LOS and vital status data registered. We assessed discrimination of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II for predicting mortality 90 days after ICU discharge, followed by recalibration of the model and assessment of standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and calibration. Performance was assessed in the entire cohort and stratified by ICU LOS quartiles.

RESULTS

We included 44 523 patients. Increasing SAPS II was associated with increasing ICU LOS. Overall discrimination (area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve) of SAPS II was 0.70 (95% CI: 0.70-0.71), with decreasing discrimination from the first (0.75, 95% CI: 0.73-0.76) to the last (0.64, 95% CI: 0.63-0.65) ICU LOS quartile. SMRs were lower (less deaths) than expected in the first ICU LOS quartile and higher (more deaths) than expected in the last two ICU LOS quartiles. Calibration decreased with increasing ICU LOS.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed that discrimination and calibration of SAPS II decreased with increasing ICU LOS, and that this affected SMRs. These findings should be acknowledged when using SAPS II for clinical, research and administrative purposes.

Clinical Examination for the Prediction of Mortality in the Critically Ill: The Simple Intensive Care Studies-I

OBJECTIVES

Caregivers use clinical examination to timely recognize deterioration of a patient, yet data on the prognostic value of clinical examination are inconsistent. In the Simple Intensive Care Studies-I, we evaluated the association of clinical examination findings with 90-day mortality in critically ill patients.

DESIGN

Prospective single-center cohort study.

SETTING

ICU of a single tertiary care level hospital between March 27, 2015, and July 22, 2017.

PATIENTS

All consecutive adults acutely admitted to the ICU and expected to stay for at least 24 hours.

INTERVENTIONS

A protocolized clinical examination of 19 clinical signs conducted within 24 hours of admission.

MEASUREMENTS MAIN RESULTS

Independent predictors of 90-day mortality were identified using multivariable logistic regression analyses. Model performance was compared with established prognostic risk scores using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves. Robustness of our findings was tested by internal bootstrap validation and adjustment of the threshold for statistical significance. A total of 1,075 patients were included, of whom 298 patients (28%) had died at 90-day follow-up. Multivariable analyses adjusted for age and norepinephrine infusion rate demonstrated that the combination of higher respiratory rate, higher systolic blood pressure, lower central temperature, altered consciousness, and decreased urine output was independently associated with 90-day mortality (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves = 0.74; 95% CI, 0.71-0.78). Clinical examination had a similar discriminative value as compared with the Simplified Acute Physiology Score-II (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves = 0.76; 95% CI, 0.73-0.79; p = 0.29) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation-IV (using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves = 0.77; 95% CI, 0.74-0.80; p = 0.16) and was significantly better than the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves = 0.67; 95% CI, 0.64-0.71; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical examination has reasonable discriminative value for assessing 90-day mortality in acutely admitted ICU patients. In our study population, a single, protocolized clinical examination had similar prognostic abilities compared with the Simplified Acute Physiology Score-II and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation-IV and outperformed the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score.

Conservative vs liberal fluid therapy in septic shock (CLASSIC) trial-Protocol and statistical analysis plan

INTRODUCTION

Intravenous (IV) fluid is a key intervention in the management of septic shock. The benefits and harms of lower versus higher fluid volumes are unknown and thus clinical equipoise exists. We describe the protocol and detailed statistical analysis plan for the conservative versus liberal approach to fluid therapy of septic shock in the Intensive Care (CLASSIC) trial. The aim of the CLASSIC trial is to assess benefits and harms of IV fluid restriction versus standard care in adult intensive care unit (ICU) patients with septic shock.

METHODS

CLASSIC trial is an investigator-initiated, international, randomised, stratified, and analyst-blinded trial. We will allocate 1554 adult patients with septic shock, who are planned to be or are admitted to an ICU, to IV fluid restriction versus standard care. The primary outcome is mortality at day 90. Secondary outcomes are serious adverse events (SAEs), serious adverse reactions (SARs), days alive at day 90 without life support, days alive and out of the hospital at day 90 and mortality, health-related quality of life (HRQoL), and cognitive function at 1 year. We will conduct the statistical analyses according to a pre-defined statistical analysis plan, including three interim analyses. For the primary analysis, we will use logistic regression adjusted for the stratification variables comparing the two interventions in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population.

DISCUSSION

The CLASSIC trial results will provide important evidence to guide clinicians' choice regarding the IV fluid therapy in adults with septic shock.

Artificial neural networks improve and simplify intensive care mortality prognostication: a national cohort study of 217,289 first-time intensive care unit admissions

Purpose

We investigated if early intensive care unit (ICU) scoring with the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS 3) could be improved using artificial neural networks (ANNs).

Methods

All first-time adult intensive care admissions in Sweden during 2009–2017 were included. A test set was set aside for validation. We trained ANNs with two hidden layers with random hyper-parameters and retained the best ANN, determined using cross-validation. The ANNs were constructed using the same parameters as in the SAPS 3 model. The performance was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Brier score.

Results

A total of 217,289 admissions were included. The developed ANN (AUC 0.89 and Brier score 0.096) was found to be superior (p <10⁻¹⁵ for AUC and p <10⁻⁵ for Brier score) in early prediction of 30-day mortality for intensive care patients when compared with SAPS 3 (AUC 0.85 and Brier score 0.109). In addition, a simple, eight-parameter ANN model was found to perform just as well as SAPS 3, but with better calibration (AUC 0.85 and and Brier score 0.106, p <10⁻⁵). Furthermore, the ANN model was superior in correcting mortality for age.

Conclusion

ANNs can outperform the SAPS 3 model for early prediction of 30-day mortality for intensive care patients.

Prevalence and risk factors related to haloperidol use for delirium in adult intensive care patients: the multinational AID-ICU inception cohort study

PURPOSE

We assessed the prevalence and variables associated with haloperidol use for delirium in ICU patients and explored any associations of haloperidol use with 90-day mortality.

METHODS

All acutely admitted, adult ICU patients were screened during a 2-week inception period. We followed the patient throughout their ICU stay and assessed 90-day mortality. We assessed patients and their variables in the first 24 and 72 h in ICU and studied their association together with that of ICU characteristics with haloperidol use.

RESULTS

We included 1260 patients from 99 ICUs in 13 countries. Delirium occurred in 314/1260 patients [25% (95% confidence interval 23-27)] of whom 145 received haloperidol [46% (41-52)]. Other interventions for delirium were benzodiazepines in 36% (31-42), dexmedetomidine in 21% (17-26), quetiapine in 19% (14-23) and olanzapine in 9% (6-12) of the patients with delirium. In the first 24 h in the ICU, all subtypes of delirium [hyperactive, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 29.7 (12.9-74.5); mixed 10.0 (5.0-20.2); hypoactive 3.0 (1.2-6.7)] and circulatory support 2.7 (1.7-4.3) were associated with haloperidol use. At 72 h after ICU admission, circulatory support remained associated with subsequent use of haloperidol, aOR 2.6 (1.1-6.9). Haloperidol use within 0-24 h and within 0-72 h of ICU admission was not associated with 90-day mortality [aOR 1.2 (0.5-2.5); p = 0.66] and [aOR 1.9 (1.0-3.9); p = 0.07], respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In our study, haloperidol was the main pharmacological agent used for delirium in adult patients regardless of delirium subtype. Benzodiazepines, other anti-psychotics and dexmedetomidine were other frequently used agents. Haloperidol use was not statistically significantly associated with increased 90-day mortality.