Prospective Validation of a Checklist to Predict Short-term Death in Older Patients After Emergency Department Admission in Australia and Ireland

Frailty is associated with 30-day mortality: a multicentre study of Swedish emergency departments

BACKGROUND

Older patients living with frailty have an increased risk for adverse events. The Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) is a 9-point frailty assessment instrument that has shown promise to identify frail emergency department (ED) patients at increased risk of adverse outcomes. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between CFS scores and 30-day mortality in an ED setting when assessments are made by regular ED staff.

METHOD

This was a prospective multicentre observational study carried out between May and November 2021 at three EDs in Sweden, where frailty via CFS is routinely assessed by ED staff. All patients ≥65 years of age were eligible for inclusion. Mortality at 7, 30 and 90 days, admission rate, ED and hospital length of stay (LOS) were compared between patients living with frailty (CFS≥5) and robust patients. Logistic regression was used to adjust for confounders.

RESULTS

A total of 1840 ED visits of patients aged ≥65 years with CFS assessments done during the study period were analysed, of which 606 (32.9%) were patients living with frailty. Mortality after the index visit was higher in patients living with frailty at 7 days (2.6% vs 0.2%), 30 days (7.9% vs 0.9%) and 90 days (15.5% vs 2.4%). Adjusted ORs for mortality for those with frailty compared with more robust patients were 9.9 (95% CI 2.1 to 46.5) for 7-day, 6.0 (95% CI 3.0 to 12.2) for 30-day and 5.7 (95% CI 3.6 to 9.1) 90-day mortality. Patients living with frailty had higher admission rates, 58% versus 36%, a difference of 22% (95% CI 17% to 26%), longer ED LOS, 5 hours:08 min versus 4 hours:36 min, a difference of 31 min (95% CI 14 to 50), and longer in-hospital LOS, 4.8 days versus 2.7 days, a difference of 2.2 days (95% CI 1.2 to 3.0).

CONCLUSION

Patients living with frailty, had significantly higher mortality and admission rates as well as longer ED and in-hospital LOS compared with robust patients. The results confirm the capability of the CFS to risk stratify short-term mortality in older ED patients.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04877028.

Primary data on symptom burden and quality of life among elderly patients at risk of dying during unplanned admissions to an NHS hospital: a cohort study using EuroQoL and the integrated palliative care outcome scale

BACKGROUND

Older people account heavily for palliative care needs at the population level and are growing in number as the population ages. There is relatively little high-quality data on symptom burden and quality of life, since these data are not routinely collected, and this group are under-recruited in primary research. It is unclear which measurement tools are best suited to capture burdens and experience.

METHODS

We recruited a cohort of 221 patients aged 75 + years with poor prognosis who had an unplanned admission via the emergency department in a large urban hospital in England between 2019 and 2020. Risk of dying was assessed using the CriSTAL tool. We collected primary data and combined these with routine health records. Baseline clinical data and patient reported quality of life outcomes were collected on admission and reassessed within the first 72 h of presentation using two established tools: EQ-5D-5 L, EQ-VAS and the Integrated Palliative Outcomes Scale (IPOS).

RESULTS

Completion rate was 68% (n = 151) and 33.1% were known to have died during admission or within 6 months post-discharge. The vast majority (84.8%) reported severe difficulties with at least one dimension of EQ-5D-5 L at baseline and improvements in EQ-VAS observed at reassessment in 51.7%. The baseline IPOS revealed 78.2% of patients rating seven or more items as moderate, severe or overwhelming, but a significant reduction (-3.6, p < 0.001) in overall physical symptom severity and prevalence was also apparent. No significant differences were noted in emotional symptoms or changes in communication/practical issues. IPOS total score at follow up was positively associated with age, having comorbidities (Charlson index score > = 1) and negatively associated with baseline IPOS and CriSTAL scores.

CONCLUSION

Older people with poor prognosis admitted to hospital have very high symptom burden compared to population norms, though some improvement following assessment was observed on all measures. These data provide valuable descriptive information on quality of life among a priority population in practice and policy and can be used in future research to identify suitable interventions and model their effects.

Development and preliminary usability testing of an electronic conversation guide incorporating patient values and prognostic information in preparation for older people's decision-making near the end of life

Initiating end-of-life conversations can be daunting for clinicians and overwhelming for patients and families. This leads to delays in communicating prognosis and preparing for the inevitable in old age, often generating potentially harmful overtreatment and poor-quality deaths. We aimed to develop an electronic resource, called Communicating Health Alternatives Tool (CHAT) that was compatible with hospital medical records software to facilitate preparation for shared decision-making across health settings with older adults deemed to be in the last year of life. The project used mixed methods including: literature review, user-directed specifications, web-based interface development with authentication and authorization; clinician and consumer co-design, iterative consultation for user testing; and ongoing developer integration of user feedback. An internet-based conversation guide to facilitate clinician-led advance care planning was co-developed covering screening for short-term risk of death, patient values and preferences, and treatment choices for chronic kidney disease and dementia. Printed summary of such discussion could be used to begin the process in hospital or community health services. Clinicians, patients, and caregivers agreed with its ease of use and were generally accepting of its contents and format. CHAT is available to health services for implementation in effectiveness trials to determine whether the interaction and documentation leads to formal decision-making, goal-concordant care, and subsequent reduction of unwanted treatments at the end of life.

Pain Management at the End of Life in the Emergency Department: A Narrative Review of the Literature and a Practical Clinical Approach

Access to pain management is a fundamental human right for all people, including those who are at the end of life (EOL). In end-stage patients, severe and uncontrolled pain is a common cause of admission to the emergency department (ED), and its treatment is challenging due to its complex, often multifactorial genesis. The aim of this narrative review was to identify the available literature on the management of severe EOL pain in the ED. The MEDLINE, SCOPUS, EMBASE, and CENTRAL databases were searched from inception to 1 April 2023 including randomised controlled trials, observational studies, systemic or narrative reviews, case reports, and guidelines on the management of EOL pain in the ED. A total of 532 articles were identified, and 9 articles were included (5 narrative reviews, 2 retrospective studies, and 2 prospective studies). Included studies were heterogeneous on the scales used and recommended for pain assessment and the recommended treatments. No study provided evidence for a better approach for EOL patients with pain in the ED. We provide a narrative summary of the findings and a review of the management of EOL pain in clinical practice, including (i) the identification of the EOL patients and unmet palliative care needs, (ii) a multidimensional, patient-centred assessment of the type and severity of pain, (iii) a multidisciplinary approach to the management of end-of-life pain, including an overview of non-pharmacological and pharmacological techniques; and (iv) the management of special situations, including rapid acute deterioration of chronic pain, breakthrough pain, and sedative palliation.

Development and assessment of scoring model for ICU stay and mortality prediction after emergency admissions in ischemic heart disease: a retrospective study of MIMIC-IV databases

Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is the leading cause of death and emergency department (ED) admission. We aimed to develop more accurate and straightforward scoring models to optimize the triaging of IHD patients in ED. This was a retrospective study based on the MIMIC-IV database. Scoring models were established by AutoScore formwork based on machine learning algorithm. The predictive power was measured by the area under the curve in the receiver operating characteristic analysis, with the prediction of intensive care unit (ICU) stay, 3d-death, 7d-death, and 30d-death after emergency admission. A total of 8381 IHD patients were included (median patient age, 71 years, 95% CI 62-81; 3035 [36%] female), in which 5867 episodes were randomly assigned to the training set, 838 to validation set, and 1676 to testing set. In total cohort, there were 2551 (30%) patients transferred into ICU; the mortality rates were 1% at 3 days, 3% at 7 days, and 7% at 30 days. In the testing cohort, the areas under the curve of scoring models for shorter and longer term outcomes prediction were 0.7551 (95% CI 0.7297-0.7805) for ICU stay, 0.7856 (95% CI 0.7166-0.8545) for 3d-death, 0.7371 (95% CI 0.6665-0.8077) for 7d-death, and 0.7407 (95% CI 0.6972-0.7842) for 30d-death. This newly accurate and parsimonious scoring models present good discriminative performance for predicting the possibility of transferring to ICU, 3d-death, 7d-death, and 30d-death in IHD patients visiting ED.

Triggering palliative care referrals through the identification of poor prognosis in older patients presented to emergency departments in rural Australia

Background: Without objective screening for risk of death, the palliative care needs of older patients near the end of life may be unrecognised and unmet. Aim: This study aimed to estimate the usefulness of the Criteria for Screening and Triaging to Appropriate aLternative care (CriSTAL) tool in determining older patients' risk of death within 3-months after initial hospital admission. Methods: A prospective cohort study of 235 patients aged 70+ years, who presented to two rural emergency departments in two adjacent Australian states, was utilised. The 'risk of death' of each patient was screened with the CriSTAL prognostic tool. Their 3-month follow-up outcomes were assessed through telephone interviews and a clinical record review. Findings: A CriSTAL cut-off score of more than 7 yielded a sensitivity of 80.7% and specificity of 70.81% for a 3-month risk of death. Palliative care services were only used by 31% of the deceased in their last trimester of life. Conclusion: Prognostic tools provide a viable means of identifying individuals with a poor prognosis. Identification can trigger an earlier referral to palliative care, which will benefit the patient's wellbeing and quality of life.

Frailty assessment in emergency medicine using the Clinical Frailty Scale: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Frailty is a common condition present in older Emergency Department (ED) patients that is associated with poor health outcomes. The Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) is a tool that measures frailty on a scale from 1 (very fit) to 9 (terminally ill). The goal of this scoping review was to describe current use of the CFS in emergency medicine and to identify gaps in research.

METHODS

We performed a systemic literature search to identify original research that used the CFS in emergency medicine. Several databases were searched from January 2005 to July 2021. Two independent reviewers completed screening, full text review and data abstraction, with a focus on study characteristics, CFS assessment (evaluators, timing and purpose), study outcomes and statistical methods.

RESULTS

A total of 4818 unique citations were identified; 34 studies were included in the final analysis. Among them, 76% were published after 2018, mainly in Europe or North America (79%). Only two assessed CFS in the pre-hospital setting. The nine-point scale was used in 74% of the studies, and patient consent was required in 69% of them. The main reason to use CFS was as a main exposure (44%), a potential predictor (15%) or an outcome (15%). The most frequently studied outcomes were mortality and hospital admission.

CONCLUSION

The use of CFS in emergency medicine research is drastically increasing. However, the reporting is not optimal and should be more standardized. Studies evaluating the impact of frailty assessment in the ED are needed.

REGISTRATION

https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/W2F8N.

Mortality in hospitalised older patients: the WHALES short-term predictive score

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate the WHALES screening tool predicting short-term mortality (3 months) in older patients hospitalised in an acute geriatric unit.

METHODS

Older patients transferred to an acute geriatric ward from June 2017 to December 2018 were included. The cohort was divided into two groups: derivation (n=664) and validation (n=332) cohorts. Cause for admission in emergency room, hospitalisation history within the previous year, ongoing medical conditions, cognitive impairment, frailty status, living conditions, presence of proteinuria on a urine strip or urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio and abnormalities on an ECG were collected at baseline. Multiple logistic regressions were performed to identify independent variables associated with mortality at 3 months in the derivation cohort. The prediction score was then validated in the validation cohort.

RESULTS

Five independent variables available from medical history and clinical data were strongly predictive of short-term mortality in older adults including age, sex, living in a nursing home, unintentional weight loss and self-reported exhaustion. The screening tool was discriminative (C-statistic=0.74 (95% CI: 0.67 to 0.82)) and had a good fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test (X2 (3)=0.55, p=0.908)). The area under the curve value for the final model was 0.74 (95% CI: 0.67 to 0.82).

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

The WHALES screening tool is a short and rapid tool predicting 3-month mortality among hospitalised older patients. Early identification of end of life may help appropriate timing and implementation of palliative care.

Development and Assessment of an Interpretable Machine Learning Triage Tool for Estimating Mortality After Emergency Admissions

IMPORTANCE

Triage in the emergency department (ED) is a complex clinical judgment based on the tacit understanding of the patient's likelihood of survival, availability of medical resources, and local practices. Although a scoring tool could be valuable in risk stratification, currently available scores have demonstrated limitations.

OBJECTIVES

To develop an interpretable machine learning tool based on a parsimonious list of variables available at ED triage; provide a simple, early, and accurate estimate of patients' risk of death; and evaluate the tool's predictive accuracy compared with several established clinical scores.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This single-site, retrospective cohort study assessed all ED patients between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2016, who were subsequently admitted to a tertiary hospital in Singapore. The Score for Emergency Risk Prediction (SERP) tool was derived using a machine learning framework. To estimate mortality outcomes after emergency admissions, SERP was compared with several triage systems, including Patient Acuity Category Scale, Modified Early Warning Score, National Early Warning Score, Cardiac Arrest Risk Triage, Rapid Acute Physiology Score, and Rapid Emergency Medicine Score. The initial analyses were completed in October 2020, and additional analyses were conducted in May 2021.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Three SERP scores, namely SERP-2d, SERP-7d, and SERP-30d, were developed using the primary outcomes of interest of 2-, 7-, and 30-day mortality, respectively. Secondary outcomes included 3-day mortality and inpatient mortality. The SERP's predictive power was measured using the area under the curve in the receiver operating characteristic analysis.

RESULTS

The study included 224 666 ED episodes in the model training cohort (mean [SD] patient age, 63.60 [16.90] years; 113 426 [50.5%] female), 56 167 episodes in the validation cohort (mean [SD] patient age, 63.58 [16.87] years; 28 427 [50.6%] female), and 42 676 episodes in the testing cohort (mean [SD] patient age, 64.85 [16.80] years; 21 556 [50.5%] female). The mortality rates in the training cohort were 0.8% at 2 days, 2.2% at 7 days, and 5.9% at 30 days. In the testing cohort, the areas under the curve of SERP-30d were 0.821 (95% CI, 0.796-0.847) for 2-day mortality, 0.826 (95% CI, 0.811-0.841) for 7-day mortality, and 0.823 (95% CI, 0.814-0.832) for 30-day mortality and outperformed several benchmark scores.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this retrospective cohort study, SERP had better prediction performance than existing triage scores while maintaining easy implementation and ease of ascertainment in the ED. It has the potential to be widely applied and validated in different circumstances and health care settings.

Systematic geriatric assessment for older patients with frailty in the emergency department: a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Comprehensive geriatric assessment provided in hospital wards in frail patients admitted to hospital has been shown to reduce mortality and increase the likelihood of living at home later. Systematic geriatric assessment provided in emergency departments (ED) may be effective for reducing days in hospital and unnecessary hospital admissions, but this has not yet been proven in randomised trials.

METHODS

We conducted a single-centre, randomised controlled trial with a parallel-group, superiority design in an academic hospital ED. ED patients aged ≥ 75 years who were frail, or at risk of frailty, as defined by the Clinical Frailty Scale, were included in the trial. Patients were recruited during the period between December 11, 2018 and June 7, 2019, and followed up for 365 days. For the intervention group, systematic geriatric assessment was added to their standard care in the ED, whereas the control group received standard care only. The primary outcome was cumulative hospital stay during 365-day follow-up. The secondary outcomes included: admission rate from the index visit, total hospital admissions, ED-readmissions, proportion of patients living at home at 365 days, 365-day mortality, and fall-related ED-visits.

RESULTS

A total of 432 patients, 63 % female, with median age of 85 years, formed the analytic sample of 213 patients in the intervention group and 219 patients in the control group. Cumulative hospital stay during one-year follow-up as rate per 100 person-years for the intervention and control groups were: 3470 and 3149 days, respectively, with rate ratio of 1.10 (95 % confidence interval, 0.55-2.19, P = .78). Admission rates to hospital wards from the index ED visit for the intervention and control groups were: 62 and 70 %, respectively (P = .10). No significant differences were observed between the groups for any outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Systematic geriatric assessment for older adults with frailty in the ED did not reduce hospital stay during one-year follow-up. No statistically significant difference was observed for any secondary outcomes. More coordinated, continuous interventions should be tested for potential benefits in long-term outcomes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The trial was registered in the ClinicalTrials.gov (registration number and date NCT03751319 23/11/2018).

Advance care planning in older hospitalised patients following an emergency admission: A mixed methods study

INTRODUCTION

Although advance care planning may be beneficial for older adults in the last year of life, its relevance following an emergency hospitalisation requires further investigation. This study quantifies the one-year mortality outcomes of all emergency admissions for patients aged 70+ years and explores patient views on the value of advance care planning following acute hospitalisation.

METHOD

This mixed methods study used a two-stage approach: firstly, a quantitative longitudinal cohort study exploring the one-year mortality of patients aged 70+ admitted as an emergency to a large multi-centre hospital cohort; secondly, a qualitative semi-structured interview study gathering information on patient views of advance care planning.

RESULTS

There were 14,260 emergency admissions for 70+-year olds over a 12-month period. One-year mortality for admissions across all conditions was 22.6%. The majority of these deaths (59.3%) were within 3 months of admission. Binary logistic regression analysis indicated higher one-year mortality with increasing age and male sex. Interviews with 20 patients resulted in one superordinate theme, "Planning for health and wellbeing in the spectrum of illness". Sub-themes entitled (1) Advance care planning benefitting healthcare for physical and psycho-social health, (2) Contemplation of physical deterioration death and dying and 3) Collaborating with healthcare professionals to undertake advance care planning, suggest that views of advance care planning are shaped by experiences of acute hospitalisation.

CONCLUSION

Since approximately 1 in 5 patients aged 70+ admitted to hospital as an emergency are in the last year of life, acute hospitalisation can act as a trigger for tailored ACP. Older hospitalised patients believe that advance care planning can benefit physical and psychosocial health and that discussions should consider a spectrum of possibilities, from future health to the potential of chronic illness, disability and death. In this context, patients may look for expertise from healthcare professionals for planning their future care.

Were the hospital bed reductions proposed by English Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) in the sustainability and transformation plans (STPs) achievable? Insights from a new model to compare international bed numbers

A new model for hospital bed numbers which adjusts for end-of-life care and age structure is used to demonstrate that England has 20% fewer occupied beds than the other countries in the United Kingdom. It also shows that occupied beds in English Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) lie parallel to a line of equivalence with New Zealand and Singapore. This is despite New Zealand and Singapore having invested many years into developing integrated care, while England has not. In addition, England has around half the number of nursing home beds per death available in these two countries. Large bed reductions proposed in the sustainability and transformation plans were likely to have been manipulated to meet financial cost-saving targets rather than a result of genuine modelling of demand. The ways in which bed demand models can be manipulated to give whatever answer is required are discussed. Trends in occupied acute medical beds in England over the past 20 years show no real reduction, despite a large reduction in available beds. This has resulted in daytime occupancy for adult beds being close to 100% and with resulting queues to admission. The ways to improve the small-area application of the model including the use of deprivation or social groups are discussed.

Feasibility of Using a Risk Assessment Tool to Predict Hospital Transfers or Death for Older People in Australian Residential Aged Care. A Retrospective Cohort Study

Residents of Aged Care Facilities (RACF) experience burdensome hospital transfers in the last year of life, which may lead to aggressive and potentially inappropriate hospital treatments. Anticipating these transfers by identifying risk factors could encourage end-of-life discussions that may change decisions to transfer. The aim was to examine the feasibility of identifying an end-of-life risk profile among RACF residents using a predictive tool to better anticipate predictors of hospital transfers, death or poor composite outcome of hospitalisation and/or death after initial assessment. A retrospective cohort study of 373 permanent residents aged 65+ years was conducted using objective clinical factors from records in nine RACFs in metropolitan Sydney, Australia. In total, 26.8% died and 34.3% experienced a composite outcome. Cox proportional hazard regression models confirmed the feasibility of estimating the level of risk for death or a poor composite outcome. Knowing this should provide opportunities to initiate advance care planning in RACFs, facilitating decision making near the end of life. We conclude that the current structure of electronic RACF databases could be enhanced to enable comprehensive assessment of the risk of hospital re-attendance without admission. Automation tools to facilitate the risk score calculation may encourage the adoption of prediction checklists and evaluation of their association with hospital transfers.

A stepped-wedge randomised-controlled trial assessing the implementation, impact and costs of a prospective feedback loop to promote appropriate care and treatment for older patients in acute hospitals at the end of life: study protocol

BACKGROUND

Hospitalisation rates for the older population have been increasing with end-of-life care becoming a more medicalised and costly experience. There is evidence that some of these patients received non-beneficial treatment during their final hospitalisation with a third of the non-beneficial treatment duration spent in intensive care units. This study aims to increase appropriate care and treatment decisions and pathways for older patients at the end of life in Australia. This study will implement and evaluate a prospective feedback loop and tailored clinical response intervention at three hospitals in Queensland, Australia.

METHODS

A stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial will be conducted with up to 21 clinical teams in three acute hospitals over 70 weeks. The study involves clinical teams providing care to patients aged 75 years or older, who are prospectively identified to be at risk of non-beneficial treatment using two validated tools for detecting death and deterioration risks. The intervention's feedback loop will provide the teams with a summary of these patients' risk profiles as a stimulus for a tailored clinical response in the intervention phase. The Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research will be used to inform the intervention's implementation and process evaluation. The study will determine the impact of the intervention on patient outcomes related to appropriate care and treatment at the end of life in hospitals, as well as the associated healthcare resource use and costs. The primary outcome is the proportion of patients who are admitted to intensive care units. A process evaluation will be carried out to assess the implementation, mechanisms of impact, and contextual barriers and enablers of the intervention.

DISCUSSION

This intervention is expected to have a positive impact on the care of older patients near the end of life, specifically to improve clinical decision-making about treatment pathways and what constitutes appropriate care for these patients. These will reduce the incidence of non-beneficial treatment, and improve the efficiency of hospital resources and quality of care. The process evaluation results will be useful to inform subsequent intervention implementation at other hospitals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Australia New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry (ANZCTR), ACTRN12619000675123p (approved 6 May 2019).

A simple prognostic score predicts one-year mortality of alert and calm emergency department patients: A prospective two-center observational study

STUDY OBJECTIVE

To derive and validate a prognostic score to predict 1-year mortality using vital signs, mobility and other variables that are readily available at the bedside at no additional cost.

METHODS

Post hoc analysis of two independent prospective observational studies in two emergency departments, one in Denmark and the other in Switzerland.

PARTICIPANTS

Alert and calm emergency department patients.

MEASUREMENTS

The prediction of mortality from presentation to 365 days by vital signs, mobility and other variables that are readily available at the bedside at no additional cost.

RESULTS

One thousand six hundred and eighteen alert and calm patients were in the Danish cohort and 1331 in the Swiss cohort. Logistic regression identified age >68 years, abnormal vital signs, impaired mobility and the decision to admit as significant predictors of 365-day mortality. A simple prognostic score awarded one point to each of these predictors. Less than two of these predictors were present in 45.6% of patients, and only 0.4% of these patients died within a year. If two or more of these predictors were present, 365-day mortality increased exponentially.

CONCLUSION

Age >68 years, the decision for hospital admission, any vital sign abnormality at presentation and impaired mobility at presentation are equally powerful predictors of 1-year mortality in alert and calm emergency department patients. If validated by others these predictors could be used to discharge patients with confidence since nearly half of these patients had less than two predictors and none of them died within 30 days. However, when two or more predictors were present 365-day mortality increased exponentially.

[Frailty syndrome. What physicians and cardiologists need to know?]

The review presents the data and evidences from recent clinical studies on the frailty syndrome - one of the most relevant clinical syndromes, though not studied well yet. The latest data on the prevalence of frailty and various factors contributing to its onset are reported. The presence of frailty is considered as an independent predictor of poor prognosis and high mortality rate. The role of frailty in the development of cardiovascular diseases, their progression and complicated course has been analyzed using the latest studies. In addition, the tendency towards higher incidence of frailty among the population of different countries and the poor prognosis of frail patients requires a series of clinical studies aimed at developing measures for primary and secondary prevention, as well as effective treatment strategies for frailty. The PubMed was used for a literature review.

Prospective Validation of a Checklist to Predict Short-term Death in Older Patients After Emergency Department Admission in Australia and Ireland

BACKGROUND

Emergency departments (EDs) are pressured environment where patients with supportive and palliative care needs may not be identified. We aimed to test the predictive ability of the CriSTAL (Criteria for Screening and Triaging to Appropriate aLternative care) checklist to flag patients at risk of death within 3 months who may benefit from timely end-of-life discussions.

METHODS

Prospective cohorts of >65-year-old patients admitted for at least one night via EDs in five Australian hospitals and one Irish hospital. Purpose-trained nurses and medical students screened for frailty using two instruments concurrently and completed the other risk factors on the CriSTAL tool at admission. Postdischarge telephone follow-up was used to determine survival status. Logistic regression and bootstrapping techniques were used to test the predictive accuracy of CriSTAL for death within 90 days of admission as primary outcome. Predictability of in-hospital death was the secondary outcome.

RESULTS

A total of 1,182 patients, with median age 76 to 80 years (IRE-AUS), were included. The deceased had significantly higher mean CriSTAL with Australian mean of 8.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 7.7-8.6) versus 5.7 (95% CI = 5.1-6.2) and Irish mean of 7.7 (95% CI = 6.9-8.5) versus 5.7 (95% CI = 5.1-6.2). The model with Fried frailty score was optimal for the derivation (Australian) cohort but prediction with the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) was also good (areas under the receiver-operating characteristic [AUROC] = 0.825 and 0.81, respectively). Values for the validation (Irish) cohort were AUROC = 0.70 with Fried and 0.77 using CFS. A minimum of five of 29 variables were sufficient for accurate prediction, and a cut point of 7+ or 6+ depending on the cohort was strongly indicative of risk of death. The most significant independent predictor of short-term death in both cohorts was frailty, carrying a twofold risk of death. CriSTAL's accuracy for in-hospital death prediction was also good (AUROC = 0.795 and 0.81 in Australia and Ireland, respectively), with high specificity and negative predictive values.

CONCLUSIONS

The modified CriSTAL tool (with CFS instead of Fried's frailty instrument) had good discriminant power to improve certainty of short-term mortality prediction in both health systems. The predictive ability of models is anticipated to help clinicians gain confidence in initiating earlier end-of-life discussions. The practicalities of embedding screening for risk of death in routine practice warrant further investigation.