'Heed not the oracle': risk assessment has no role in preventing suicide in schizophrenia

Utilization of psychiatric services prior to suicide- a retrospective comparison of users with and without previous suicide attempts

INTRODUCTION

The aim was to investigate psychiatric health care utilization two years before death by suicide among individuals with previous suicide attempts (PSA) compared with those without (NSA).

METHOD

A retrospective population-based cohort study was conducted including 484 individuals who died by suicide in Sweden in 2015 and were in contact with psychiatric services within the two years preceding death, identified through the Cause of Death register. Data on psychiatric health care two years before death, including suicide attempts according to notes in the medical record was used. Associations between having at least one PSA vs. NSA and health care utilization were estimated as odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) by logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS

Of the 484 individuals included, 51% had PSA. Those with PSA were more likely than NSA to have received a psychiatric diagnosis [OR 1.96 (CI 95% 1.17-3.30)], to have ongoing psychotropic medication [OR 1.96 (CI 95% 1.15-3.36)] and to have been absent from appointments during the last three months [1.97 (1.25-3.13)]. In addition, elevated suicide risk was more often noted in the psychiatric case records of those with a PSA than those without [OR 2.17 (CI 95% 1.24-3.79)].

CONCLUSION

The results underline the importance of improved suicide risk assessment as well as thorough diagnostic assessment and when indicated, psychiatric treatment as suicide preventive interventions regardless of PSA. Furthermore, the larger proportion of absence from appointments in individuals with PSA may indicate a need of improved alliance between psychiatric care providers and individuals with PSA.HIGHLIGHTSBeing assessed with elevated suicide risk was more common among those with previous attempt/s (PSA).One-fifth of all with no previous attempt (NSA) had no psychiatric diagnosis, compared to one in ten in those with PSA.Receiving psychotropic medication was more common among those with PSA.

Suicide and all-cause mortality in a high-risk cohort: A latent class approach

OBJECTIVE

To use latent class analysis to group patients consulted to an emergency psychiatry consultation service and assess occurrence of suicide attempts and all-cause mortality across groups.

METHOD

Latent class analysis was used to classify individuals assessed by psychiatry in the emergency department of the two teaching hospitals in Winnipeg, Canada. A second latent class analysis was done on individuals presenting with a suicide attempt. Indicators variables included a variety of clinically assessed factors, such as presentation suicidality and occurrence of anxiety/depression/psychosis, and prior medical treatment. Two post-treatment indicators were used; suicide attempt hospitalizations and all-cause mortality within 12 months of assessment.

RESULTS

Latent class analysis identified 8 classes for all presentations (n = 5292) and 3 classes for the attempter subgroup (n = 730). Although there is considerable overlap in indicators among the classes certain indicators differentiated between the groups: suicide attempt presentation, prior psychiatric treatment, psychotropic medication polypharmacy, childhood abuse, and addictions. Although the presence of deaths and future attempts varied between the identified groups, there were no groups with a >10% proportion of individuals with either of these outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Potential exists for latent class-based assessments, but additional samples with better indicators are needed.

Predicting Future Suicide: Clinician Opinion versus a Standardized Assessment Tool

OBJECTIVE

To compare the effectiveness of clinician prediction of risk to a standardized assessment of presentation status.

METHODS

All adult psychiatry emergency department consults in the two main hospitals in Winnipeg, Canada, were assessed using a standardized form (n = 5,376). This form includes two risk scales for a gestalt physician assessment of risk (Suicide Likelihood scale, suicide Attempt Likelihood scale) and the Columbia Classification Algorithm of Suicide Assessment (C-CASA). Regression determined whether assessments predicted future suicide attempts and deaths. The area under the curve (AUC) determined the prediction accuracy of these methods.

RESULTS

Although the regression results were significant, the AUCs were either moderate or poor. Clinician assessment was not effective at predicting deaths (AUC = .546, .36-.73), but moderately accurate at predicting future attempts (AUC = .728, .66-.79). C-CASA assessment was moderately accurate at predicting both attempts and deaths (AUC = .666 and .678).

CONCLUSIONS

Clinician assessment does not significantly outperform a simple assessment of the occurrence of suicidal thoughts and behaviors during presentation to the emergency department. Behavior-based standardized assessments should be further researched in this field. Assessment of suicidality at presentation using C-CASA or similar assessment should be standard for psychiatric patients assessed in the emergency department.

Risk assessment and suicide by patients with schizophrenia in secondary mental healthcare: a case-control study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the role of risk assessment in predicting suicide in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSDs) receiving secondary mental healthcare. We postulated that risk assessment plays a limited role in predicting suicide in these patients.

DESIGN

Retrospective case-control study.

SETTING

Anonymised electronic mental health record data from the South London and Maudsley National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust (SLaM) (London, UK) linked with national mortality data.

PARTICIPANTS

In 242 227 SLaM service users up to 31 December 2013, 635 suicides were identified. 96 (15.1%) had a SSD diagnosis. Those who died before 1 January 2007 (n=25) were removed from the analyses. Thus, 71 participants with SSD who died from suicide over the study period (cases) were compared with 355 controls.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Risk of suicide in relation to risk assessment ratings.

RESULTS

Cases were younger at first contact with services (mean±SD 34.5±12.6 vs 39.2±15.2) and with a higher preponderance of males (OR=2.07, 95% CI 1.18 to 3.65, p=0.01) than controls. Also, suicide occurred within 10 days after last contact with services in half of cases, with the most common suicide methods being hanging (14) and jumping (13). Cases were more likely to have the following 'risk assessment' items previously recorded: suicidal history (OR=4.42, 95% CI 2.01 to 9.65, p<0.001), use of violent method (OR=3.37, 95% CI 1.47 to 7.74, p=0.01), suicidal ideation (OR=3.57, 95% CI 1.40 to 9.07, p=0.01) and recent hospital discharge (OR=2.71, 95% CI 1.17 to 6.28, p=0.04). Multiple regression models predicted only 21.5% of the suicide outcome variance.

CONCLUSIONS

Predicting suicide in schizophrenia is highly challenging due to the high prevalence of risk factors within this diagnostic group irrespective of outcome, including suicide. Nevertheless, older age at first contact with mental health services and lack of suicidal history and suicidal ideation are useful protective markers indicative of those less likely to end their own lives.