Prediction of lithium response using clinical data

Exploring the genetics of lithium response in bipolar disorders

BACKGROUND

Lithium (Li) remains the treatment of choice for bipolar disorders (BP). Its mood-stabilizing effects help reduce the long-term burden of mania, depression and suicide risk in patients with BP. It also has been shown to have beneficial effects on disease-associated conditions, including sleep and cardiovascular disorders. However, the individual responses to Li treatment vary within and between diagnostic subtypes of BP (e.g. BP-I and BP-II) according to the clinical presentation. Moreover, long-term Li treatment has been linked to adverse side-effects that are a cause of concern and non-adherence, including the risk of developing chronic medical conditions such as thyroid and renal disease. In recent years, studies by the Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLiGen) have uncovered a number of genetic factors that contribute to the variability in Li treatment response in patients with BP. Here, we leveraged the ConLiGen cohort (N = 2064) to investigate the genetic basis of Li effects in BP. For this, we studied how Li response and linked genes associate with the psychiatric symptoms and polygenic load for medical comorbidities, placing particular emphasis on identifying differences between BP-I and BP-II.

RESULTS

We found that clinical response to Li treatment, measured with the Alda scale, was associated with a diminished burden of mania, depression, substance and alcohol abuse, psychosis and suicidal ideation in patients with BP-I and, in patients with BP-II, of depression only. Our genetic analyses showed that a stronger clinical response to Li was modestly related to lower polygenic load for diabetes and hypertension in BP-I but not BP-II. Moreover, our results suggested that a number of genes that have been previously linked to Li response variability in BP differentially relate to the psychiatric symptomatology, particularly to the numbers of manic and depressive episodes, and to the polygenic load for comorbid conditions, including diabetes, hypertension and hypothyroidism.

CONCLUSIONS

Taken together, our findings suggest that the effects of Li on symptomatology and comorbidity in BP are partially modulated by common genetic factors, with differential effects between BP-I and BP-II.

Phenotypic clustering of bipolar disorder supports stratification by lithium responsiveness over diagnostic subtypes

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to determine whether the clinical profiles of bipolar disorder (BD) patients could be differentiated more clearly using the existing classification by diagnostic subtype or by lithium treatment responsiveness.

METHODS

We included adult patients with BD-I or II (N = 477 across four sites) who were treated with lithium as their principal mood stabilizer for at least 1 year. Treatment responsiveness was defined using the dichotomized Alda score. We performed hierarchical clustering on phenotypes defined by 40 features, covering demographics, clinical course, family history, suicide behaviour, and comorbid conditions. We then measured the amount of information that inferred clusters carried about (A) BD subtype and (B) lithium responsiveness using adjusted mutual information (AMI) scores. Detailed phenotypic profiles across clusters were then evaluated with univariate comparisons.

RESULTS

Two clusters were identified (n = 56 and n = 421), which captured significantly more information about lithium responsiveness (AMI range: 0.033 to 0.133) than BD subtype (AMI: 0.004 to 0.011). The smaller cluster had disproportionately more lithium responders (n = 47 [83.8%]) when compared to the larger cluster (103 [24.4%]; p = 0.006).

CONCLUSIONS

Phenotypes derived from detailed clinical data may carry more information about lithium responsiveness than the current classification of diagnostic subtype. These findings support lithium responsiveness as a valid approach to stratification in clinical samples.

A pilot study examining the impact of lithium treatment and responsiveness on mnemonic discrimination in bipolar disorder

INTRODUCTION

Mnemonic discrimination (MD), the ability to discriminate new stimuli from similar memories, putatively involves dentate gyrus pattern separation. Since lithium may normalize dentate gyrus functioning in lithium-responsive bipolar disorder (BD), we hypothesized that lithium treatment would be associated with better MD in lithium-responsive BD patients.

METHODS

BD patients (N = 69; NResponders = 16 [23 %]) performed the Continuous Visual Memory Test (CVMT), which requires discriminating between novel and previously seen images. Before testing, all patients had prophylactic lithium responsiveness assessed over ≥1 year of therapy (with the Alda Score), although only thirty-eight patients were actively prescribed lithium at time of testing (55 %; 12/16 responders, 26/53 nonresponders). We then used computational modelling to extract patient-specific MD indices. Linear models were used to test how (A) lithium treatment, (B) lithium responsiveness via the continuous Alda score, and (C) their interaction, affected MD.

RESULTS

Superior MD performance was associated with lithium treatment exclusively in lithium-responsive patients (Lithium x AldaScore β = 0.257 [SE 0.078], p = 0.002). Consistent with prior literature, increased age was associated with worse MD (β = -0.03 [SE 0.01], p = 0.005).

LIMITATIONS

Secondary pilot analysis of retrospectively collected data in a cross-sectional design limits generalizability.

CONCLUSION

Our study is the first to examine MD performance in BD. Lithium is associated with better MD performance only in lithium responders, potentially due to lithium's effects on dentate gyrus granule cell excitability. Our results may influence the development of behavioural probes for dentate gyrus neuronal hyperexcitability in BD.

Longitudinal studies of bipolar patients and their families: translating findings to advance individualized risk prediction, treatment and research

BACKGROUND

Bipolar disorder is a broad diagnostic construct associated with significant phenotypic and genetic heterogeneity challenging progress in clinical practice and discovery research. Prospective studies of well-characterized patients and their family members have identified lithium responsive (LiR) and lithium non-responsive (LiNR) subtypes that hold promise for advancement.

METHOD

In this narrative review, relevant observations from published longitudinal studies of well-characterized bipolar patients and their families spanning six decades are highlighted. DSM diagnoses based on SADS-L interviews were decided in blind consensus reviews by expert clinicians. Genetic, neurobiological, and psychosocial factors were investigated in subsets of well-characterized probands and adult relatives. Systematic maintenance trials of lithium, antipsychotics, and lamotrigine were carried out. Clinical profiles that included detailed histories of the clinical course, symptom sets and disorders segregating in families were documented. Offspring of LiR and LiNR families were repeatedly assessed up to 20 years using KSADS-PL format interviews and DSM diagnoses and sub-threshold symptoms were decided by expert clinicians in blind consensus reviews using all available clinical and research data.

RESULTS

A characteristic clinical profile differentiated bipolar patients who responded to lithium stabilization from those who did not. The LiR subtype was characterized by a recurrent fully remitting course predominated by depressive episodes and a positive family history of episodic remitting mood disorders, and not schizophrenia. Response to lithium clustered in families and the characteristic clinical profile predicted lithium response, with the episodic remitting course being a strong correlate. There is accumulating evidence that genetic and neurobiological markers differ between LiR and LiNR subtypes. Further, offspring of bipolar parents subdivided by lithium response differed in developmental history, clinical antecedents and early course of mood disorders. Moreover, the nature of the emergent course bred true from parent to offspring, independent of the nature of emergent psychopathology.

CONCLUSIONS

Bipolar disorders are heterogeneous and response to long-term lithium is associated with a familial subtype with characteristic course, treatment response, family history and likely pathogenesis. Incorporating distinctive clinical profiles that index valid bipolar subtypes into routine practice and research will improve patient outcomes and advance the development and translation of novel treatment targets to improve prevention and early intervention.

Type of cycle, temperament and childhood trauma are associated with lithium response in patients with bipolar disorders

BACKGROUND

Lithium stands as the gold standard in treating bipolar disorders (BD). Despite numerous clinical factors being associated with a favorable response to lithium, comprehensive studies examining the collective influence of clinical variables alongside psychopathological dimensions are lacking. Our study aims to enhance comprehension of lithium response in individuals with BD by integrating clinical variables with psychopathological traits and early adverse events.

METHODS

We assessed 201 patients with BD for clinical characteristics, childhood trauma, temperament traits, impulsivity, and aggression. Lithium response was evaluated using the gold standard Alda scale, and predictors of lithium response were estimated through a multivariate model.

RESULTS

On the total sample, 61 (30.3%) patients were lithium responders according to the Alda scale. Comparatively, lithium responders, in contrast to non-responders, demonstrated a higher prevalence of the mania-depression-interval (MDI) cycle, a more frequent diagnosis of BD type I, and reported an earlier age of onset. They also exhibited less lifetime substance abuse, emotional, physical, and sexual abuse, while scoring higher on hyperthymic and irritable temperament scales. In multivariate analyses, only the MDI cycle (OR,3.47; 95%CI,1.61-7.50) hyperthymic (OR,1.20; 95%CI,1.02-1.41) and irritable temperament (OR,1.28; 95%CI,1.08-1.52) persisted as significant predictors of a positive response to lithium treatment, while emotional (OR,0.87; 95%CI,0.76-0.98) and physical abuse (OR,0.83; 95%CI,0.70-0.98) were predictors of non-response.

CONCLUSIONS

In evaluating lithium response in BD, our study highlights the importance of considering clinical variables alongside temperament and childhood adversities. The assessment of hyperthymic and irritable temperament, emotional and physical abuse together with the type of cycle is of particular importance. Furthermore, our findings underscore the significance of systematically assessing the type of cycle in patients with BD through the use of life charts.

Effectiveness of ultra-long-term lithium treatment: relevant factors and case series

BACKGROUND

The phenomenon of preventing the recurrences of mood disorders by the long-term lithium administration was discovered sixty years ago. Such a property of lithium has been unequivocally confirmed in subsequent years, and the procedure makes nowadays the gold standard for the pharmacological prophylaxis of bipolar disorder (BD). The efficacy of lithium prophylaxis surpasses other mood stabilizers, and the drug has the longest record as far as the duration of its administration is concerned. The continuation of lithium administration in case of good response could be a lifetime and last for several decades. The stability of lithium prophylactic efficacy in most patients is pretty steady. However, resuming lithium after its discontinuation may, in some patients, be less efficient.

MAIN BODY

In the article, the clinical and biological factors connected with the prophylactic efficacy of long-term lithium administration are listed. Next, the adverse and beneficial side effects of such longitudinal treatment are presented. The main problems of long-term lithium therapy, which could make an obstacle to lithium continuation, are connected with lithium's adverse effects on the kidney and, to lesser extent, on thyroid and parathyroid functions. In the paper, the management of these adversities is proposed. Finally, the case reports of three patients who have completed 50 years of lithium therapy are described.

CONCLUSIONS

The authors of the paper reckon that in the case of good response, lithium can be given indefinitely. Given the appropriate candidates for such therapy and successful management of the adverse effects, ultra-long term lithium therapy is possible and beneficial for such patients.

Exploring the genetics of lithium response in bipolar disorders

Background

Lithium (Li) remains the treatment of choice for bipolar disorders (BP). Its mood-stabilizing effects help reduce the long-term burden of mania, depression and suicide risk in patients with BP. It also has been shown to have beneficial effects on disease-associated conditions, including sleep and cardiovascular disorders. However, the individual responses to Li treatment vary within and between diagnostic subtypes of BP (e.g. BP-I and BP-II) according to the clinical presentation. Moreover, long-term Li treatment has been linked to adverse side-effects that are a cause of concern and non-adherence, including the risk of developing chronic medical conditions such as thyroid and renal disease. In recent years, studies by the Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLiGen) have uncovered a number of genetic factors that contribute to the variability in Li treatment response in patients with BP. Here, we leveraged the ConLiGen cohort (N=2,064) to investigate the genetic basis of Li effects in BP. For this, we studied how Li response and linked genes associate with the psychiatric symptoms and polygenic load for medical comorbidities, placing particular emphasis on identifying differences between BP-I and BP-II.

Results

We found that clinical response to Li treatment, measured with the Alda scale, was associated with a diminished burden of mania, depression, substance and alcohol abuse, psychosis and suicidal ideation in patients with BP-I and, in patients with BP-II, of depression only. Our genetic analyses showed that a stronger clinical response to Li was modestly related to lower polygenic load for diabetes and hypertension in BP-I but not BP-II. Moreover, our results suggested that a number of genes that have been previously linked to Li response variability in BP differentially relate to the psychiatric symptomatology, particularly to the numbers of manic and depressive episodes, and to the polygenic load for comorbid conditions, including diabetes, hypertension and hypothyroidism.

Conclusions

Taken together, our findings suggest that the effects of Li on symptomatology and comorbidity in BP are partially modulated by common genetic factors, with differential effects between BP-I and BP-II.

External Evaluation of Population Pharmacokinetics Models of Lithium in the Bipolar Population

Lithium has been used in the treatment of bipolar disorder for several decades. Treatment optimization is recommended for this drug, due to its narrow therapeutic range and a large pharmacokinetics (PK) variability. In addition to therapeutic drug monitoring, attempts have been made to predict individual lithium doses using population pharmacokinetics (popPK) models. This study aims to assess the clinical applicability of published lithium popPK models by testing their predictive performance on two different external datasets. Available PopPK models were identified and their predictive performance was determined using a clinical dataset (46 patients/samples) and the literature dataset (89 patients/samples). The median prediction error (PE) and median absolute PE were used to assess bias and inaccuracy. The potential factors influencing model predictability were also investigated, and the results of both external evaluations compared. Only one model met the acceptability criteria for both datasets. Overall, there was a lack of predictability of models; median PE and median absolute PE, respectively, ranged from -6.6% to 111.2% and from 24.4% to 111.2% for the literature dataset, and from -4.5% to 137.6% and from 24.9% to 137.6% for the clinical dataset. Most models underpredicted the observed concentrations (7 out of 10 models presented a negative bias). Renal status was included as a covariate of lithium's clearance in only two models. To conclude, most of lithium's PopPK models had limited predictive performances related to the absence of covariates of interest included, such as renal status. A solution to this problem could be to improve the models with methodologies such as metamodeling. This could be useful in the perspective of model-informed precision dosing.

Precision medicine in complex diseases-Molecular subgrouping for improved prediction and treatment stratification

Complex diseases are caused by a combination of genetic, lifestyle, and environmental factors and comprise common noncommunicable diseases, including allergies, cardiovascular disease, and psychiatric and metabolic disorders. More than 25% of Europeans suffer from a complex disease, and together these diseases account for 70% of all deaths. The use of genomic, molecular, or imaging data to develop accurate diagnostic tools for treatment recommendations and preventive strategies, and for disease prognosis and prediction, is an important step toward precision medicine. However, for complex diseases, precision medicine is associated with several challenges. There is a significant heterogeneity between patients of a specific disease-both with regards to symptoms and underlying causal mechanisms-and the number of underlying genetic and nongenetic risk factors is often high. Here, we summarize precision medicine approaches for complex diseases and highlight the current breakthroughs as well as the challenges. We conclude that genomic-based precision medicine has been used mainly for patients with highly penetrant monogenic disease forms, such as cardiomyopathies. However, for most complex diseases-including psychiatric disorders and allergies-available polygenic risk scores are more probabilistic than deterministic and have not yet been validated for clinical utility. However, subclassifying patients of a specific disease into discrete homogenous subtypes based on molecular or phenotypic data is a promising strategy for improving diagnosis, prediction, treatment, prevention, and prognosis. The availability of high-throughput molecular technologies, together with large collections of health data and novel data-driven approaches, offers promise toward improved individual health through precision medicine.

Antidepressant-Associated Treatment Emergent Mania: A Meta-Analysis to Guide Risk Modeling Pharmacogenomic Targets of Potential Clinical Value

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to review the association between the SLC6A4 5-HTTLPR polymorphism and antidepressant (AD)-associated treatment emergent mania (TEM) in bipolar disorder alongside starting a discussion on the merits of developing risk stratification models to guide when not to provide AD treatment for bipolar depression.

METHODS

Studies that examined the association between clinical and genetic risk factors, specifically monoaminergic transporter genetic variation, and TEM were identified. A meta-analysis was performed using the odds ratio to estimate the effect size under the Der-Simonian and Laird model.

RESULTS

Seven studies, referencing the SLC6A4 5-HTTLPR polymorphism and TEM (total N = 1578; TEM+ =594, TEM- = 984), of 142 identified articles were included. The time duration between the start of the AD to emergence of TEM ranged from 4 to 12 weeks. There was a nominally significant association between the s allele of the 5-HTTLPR polymorphism and TEM (odds ratio, 1.434; 95% confidence interval, 1.001-2.055; P = 0.0493; I2 = 52%). No studies have investigated norepinephrine or dopamine transporters.

CONCLUSION

Although the serotonin transporter genetic variation is commercially available in pharmacogenomic decision support tools, greater efforts, more broadly, should focus on complete genome-wide approaches to determine genetic variants that may contribute to TEM. Moreover, these data are exemplary to the merits of developing risk stratification models, which include both clinical and biological risk factors, to guide when not to use ADs in bipolar disorder. Future studies will need to validate new risk models that best inform the development of personalized medicine best practices treating bipolar depression.

Information theory characteristics improve the prediction of lithium response in bipolar disorder patients using a support vector machine classifier

AIM

Bipolar disorder (BD) is a mood disorder with a high morbidity and death rate. Lithium (Li), a prominent mood stabilizer, is often used as a first-line treatment. However, clinical studies have shown that Li is fully effective in roughly 30% of BD patients. Our goal in this study was to use features derived from information theory to improve the prediction of the patient's response to Li as well as develop a diagnostic algorithm for the disorder.

METHODS

We have performed electrophysiological recordings in patient-derived dentate gyrus (DG) granule neurons (from a total of 9 subjects) for three groups: 3 control individuals, 3 BD patients who respond to Li treatment (LR), and 3 BD patients who do not respond to Li treatment (NR). The recordings were analyzed by the statistical tools of modern information theory. We used a Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Random forest (RF) classifiers with the basic electrophysiological features with additional information theory features.

RESULTS

Information theory features provided further knowledge about the distribution of the electrophysiological entities and the interactions between the different features, which improved classification schemes. These newly added features significantly improved our ability to distinguish the BD patients from the control individuals (an improvement from 60% to 74% accuracy) and LR from NR patients (an improvement from 81% to 99% accuracy).

CONCLUSION

The addition of Information theory-derived features provides further knowledge about the distribution of the parameters and their interactions, thus significantly improving the ability to discriminate and predict the LRs from the NRs and the patients from the controls.

Lithium use in childhood and adolescence, peripartum, and old age: an umbrella review

BACKGROUND

Lithium is one of the most consistently effective treatment for mood disorders. However, patients may show a high level of heterogeneity in treatment response across the lifespan. In particular, the benefits of lithium use may vary in special clinical conditions. The aim of this study was to test this hypothesis by conducting an umbrella review on the efficacy and safety of lithium in childhood and adolescence, peripartum and old age.

METHODS

We applied the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses criteria (PRISMA) to identify systematic reviews/meta-analyses on the efficacy and/or safety of lithium in mood disorders in special clinical conditions: (i) childhood and adolescence; (ii) peripartum (pregnancy, postpartum and lactation); (iii) old age. The Risk of Bias Assessment Tool for Systematic Reviews (ROBIS) tool was used to assess the risk of bias. Overlap in primary studies across systematic reviews was calculated through the Corrected Covered Area (CCA).

RESULTS

We included 20 independent studies, for a total of 8209 individuals treated with lithium. Regarding paediatric age, efficacy and safety results suggested that lithium may be superior to placebo in bipolar disorders (BD) and not associated with serious adverse events. Nevertheless, primary available data are very limited. Efficacy in paediatric major depressive disorder (MDD) is not clear. During peripartum, lithium use was superior to non-lithium in preventing mood episodes and it was associated with low risk of congenital anomalies and with normal child neurodevelopment. Regarding old age, limited evidence supported lithium as an effective treatment in BD and resistant MDD; low doses should be used in this population. Systematic reviews on paediatric age showed the lowest risk of bias (80% of the studies at low risk). The CCA range of included studies was 13-47%.

CONCLUSIONS

This umbrella review supports the use of lithium across the lifespan, including special clinical condition. Nevertheless, more studies with increased methodological homogeneity are needed.

Updated perspectives on how and when lithium should be used in the treatment of mood disorders

INTRODUCTION

Lithium is one of the most important drugs for the treatment of mood disorders. The appropriate guidelines can ensure that more patients benefit from its use in a personalized way.

AREAS COVERED

This manuscript provides an update on the application of lithium in mood disorders, including prophylaxis of bipolar and unipolar mood disorder, treatment of acute manic and depressive episodes, augmentation of antidepressants in treatment-resistant depression, and use of lithium in pregnancy and the postpartum period.

EXPERT OPINION

Lithium remains the gold standard for the prevention of recurrences in bipolar mood disorder. For long-term treatment/management of bipolar mood disorder, clinicians should also consider lithium's anti-suicidal effect. Furthermore, after prophylactic treatment, lithium may also be augmented with antidepressants in treatment-resistant depression. There have also been some demonstration of lithium having some efficacy in acute episodes of mania and bipolar depression as well as in the prophylaxis of unipolar depression.

A critical evaluation of dynamical systems models of bipolar disorder

Bipolar disorder (BD) is a mood disorder involving recurring (hypo)manic and depressive episodes. The inherently temporal nature of BD has inspired its conceptualization using dynamical systems theory, which is a mathematical framework for understanding systems that evolve over time. In this paper, we provide a critical review of the dynamical systems models of BD. Owing to the heterogeneity of methodological and experimental designs in computational modeling, we designed a structured approach that parallels the appraisal of animal models by their face, predictive, and construct validity. This tool, the validity appraisal guide for computational models (VAG-CM), is not an absolute measure of validity, but rather a guide for a more objective appraisal of models in this review. We identified 26 studies published before November 18, 2021 that proposed generative dynamical systems models of time-varying signals in BD. Two raters independently applied the VAG-CM to the included studies, obtaining a mean Cohen's κ of 0.55 (95% CI [0.45, 0.64]) prior to establishing consensus ratings. Consensus VAG-CM ratings revealed three model/study clusters: data-driven models with face validity, theory-driven models with predictive validity, and theory-driven models lacking all forms of validity. We conclude that future modeling studies should employ a hybrid approach that first operationalizes BD features of interest using empirical data to achieve face validity, followed by explanations of those features using generative models with components that are homologous to physiological or psychological systems involved in BD, to achieve construct validity. Such models would be best developed alongside long-term prospective cohort studies involving a collection of multimodal time-series data. We also encourage future studies to extend, modify, and evaluate the VAG-CM approach for a wider breadth of computational modeling studies and psychiatric disorders.

Lithium response in bipolar disorder: Genetics, genomics, and beyond

Lithium is an effective mood stabilizer in bipolar disorder (BD). There is, however, high variability in treatment response to lithium and only 20-30% of individuals with BD are excellent responders. This subgroup has been shown to have specific phenotypic characteristics, and family studies have implicated genetics as an important factor. However, candidate gene studies did not find evidence for major effect genes. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have emphasized that lithium response is a polygenic trait. GWAS based on larger sample sizes and non-European ancestries are likely to shed light on the genomic architecture of this trait. Furthermore, induced pluripotent stem cells, transcriptomics, epigenetics, the integration of multiple omics data, and their combination with advanced machine learning techniques hold promise for the understanding of the complex biological underpinnings of lithium treatment response.

The potential role of stimulants in treating eating disorders

BACKGROUND

Many individuals with eating disorders remain symptomatic after a course of psychotherapy and pharmacotherapy; therefore, the development of innovative treatments is essential.

METHOD

To learn more about the current evidence for treating eating disorders with stimulants, we searched for original articles and reviews published up to April 29, 2021 in PubMed and MEDLINE using the following search terms: eating disorders, anorexia, bulimia, binge eating, stimulants, amphetamine, lisdexamfetamine, methylphenidate, and phentermine.

RESULTS

We propose that stimulant medications represent a novel avenue for future research based on the following: (a) the relationship between eating disorders and attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD); (b) a neurobiological rationale; and (c) the current (but limited) evidence for stimulants as treatments for some eating disorders. Despite the possible benefits of such medications, there are also risks to consider such as medication misuse, adverse cardiovascular events, and reduction of appetite and pathological weight loss. With those risks in mind, we propose several directions for future research including: (a) randomized controlled trials to study stimulant treatment in those with bulimia nervosa (with guidance on strategies to mitigate risk); (b) examining stimulant treatment in conjunction with psychotherapy; (c) investigating the impact of stimulants on "loss of control" eating in youth with ADHD; and (d) exploring relevant neurobiological mechanisms. We also propose specific directions for exploring mediators and moderators in future clinical trials.

DISCUSSION

Although this line of investigation may be viewed as controversial by some in the field, we believe that the topic warrants careful consideration for future research.

Using polygenic scores and clinical data for bipolar disorder patient stratification and lithium response prediction: machine learning approach

BACKGROUND

Response to lithium in patients with bipolar disorder is associated with clinical and transdiagnostic genetic factors. The predictive combination of these variables might help clinicians better predict which patients will respond to lithium treatment.

AIMS

To use a combination of transdiagnostic genetic and clinical factors to predict lithium response in patients with bipolar disorder.

METHOD

This study utilised genetic and clinical data (n = 1034) collected as part of the International Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLi+Gen) project. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) were computed for schizophrenia and major depressive disorder, and then combined with clinical variables using a cross-validated machine-learning regression approach. Unimodal, multimodal and genetically stratified models were trained and validated using ridge, elastic net and random forest regression on 692 patients with bipolar disorder from ten study sites using leave-site-out cross-validation. All models were then tested on an independent test set of 342 patients. The best performing models were then tested in a classification framework.

RESULTS

The best performing linear model explained 5.1% (P = 0.0001) of variance in lithium response and was composed of clinical variables, PRS variables and interaction terms between them. The best performing non-linear model used only clinical variables and explained 8.1% (P = 0.0001) of variance in lithium response. A priori genomic stratification improved non-linear model performance to 13.7% (P = 0.0001) and improved the binary classification of lithium response. This model stratified patients based on their meta-polygenic loadings for major depressive disorder and schizophrenia and was then trained using clinical data.

CONCLUSIONS

Using PRS to first stratify patients genetically and then train machine-learning models with clinical predictors led to large improvements in lithium response prediction. When used with other PRS and biological markers in the future this approach may help inform which patients are most likely to respond to lithium treatment.

Clinical predictors of non-response to lithium treatment in the Pharmacogenomics of Bipolar Disorder (PGBD) study

BACKGROUND

Lithium is regarded as a first-line treatment for bipolar disorder (BD), but partial response and non-response commonly occurs. There exists a need to identify lithium non-responders prior to initiating treatment. The Pharmacogenomics of Bipolar Disorder (PGBD) Study was designed to identify predictors of lithium response.

METHODS

The PGBD Study was an eleven site prospective trial of lithium treatment in bipolar I disorder. Subjects were stabilized on lithium monotherapy over 4 months and gradually discontinued from all other psychotropic medications. After ensuring a sustained clinical remission (defined by a score of ≤3 on the CGI for 4 weeks) had been achieved, subjects were followed for up to 2 years to monitor clinical response. Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the relationship between clinical measures and time until failure to remit or relapse.

RESULTS

A total of 345 individuals were enrolled into the study and included in the analysis. Of these, 101 subjects failed to remit or relapsed, 88 achieved remission and continued to study completion, and 156 were terminated from the study for other reasons. Significant clinical predictors of treatment failure (p < 0.05) included baseline anxiety symptoms, functional impairments, negative life events and lifetime clinical features such as a history of migraine, suicidal ideation/attempts, and mixed episodes, as well as a chronic course of illness.

CONCLUSIONS

In this PGBD Study of lithium response, several clinical features were found to be associated with failure to respond to lithium. Future validation is needed to confirm these clinical predictors of treatment failure and their use clinically to distinguish who will do well on lithium before starting pharmacotherapy.

Association of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder and Depression Polygenic Scores with Lithium Response: A Consortium for Lithium Genetics Study

Response to lithium varies widely between individuals with bipolar disorder (BD). Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) can uncover pharmacogenomics effects and may help predict drug response. Patients (N = 2,510) with BD were assessed for long-term lithium response in the Consortium on Lithium Genetics using the Retrospective Criteria of Long-Term Treatment Response in Research Subjects with Bipolar Disorder score. PRSs for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), major depressive disorder (MDD), and schizophrenia (SCZ) were computed using lassosum and in a model including all three PRSs and other covariates, and the PRS of ADHD (β = -0.14; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.24 to -0.03; p value = 0.010) and MDD (β = -0.16; 95% CI: -0.27 to -0.04; p value = 0.005) predicted worse quantitative lithium response. A higher SCZ PRS was associated with higher rates of medication nonadherence (OR = 1.61; 95% CI: 1.34-1.93; p value = 2e-7). This study indicates that genetic risk for ADHD and depression may influence lithium treatment response. Interestingly, a higher SCZ PRS was associated with poor adherence, which can negatively impact treatment response. Incorporating genetic risk of ADHD, depression, and SCZ in combination with clinical risk may lead to better clinical care for patients with BD.

Combining schizophrenia and depression polygenic risk scores improves the genetic prediction of lithium response in bipolar disorder patients

Lithium is the gold standard therapy for Bipolar Disorder (BD) but its effectiveness differs widely between individuals. The molecular mechanisms underlying treatment response heterogeneity are not well understood, and personalized treatment in BD remains elusive. Genetic analyses of the lithium treatment response phenotype may generate novel molecular insights into lithium's therapeutic mechanisms and lead to testable hypotheses to improve BD management and outcomes. We used fixed effect meta-analysis techniques to develop meta-analytic polygenic risk scores (MET-PRS) from combinations of highly correlated psychiatric traits, namely schizophrenia (SCZ), major depression (MD) and bipolar disorder (BD). We compared the effects of cross-disorder MET-PRS and single genetic trait PRS on lithium response. For the PRS analyses, we included clinical data on lithium treatment response and genetic information for n = 2283 BD cases from the International Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLi⁺Gen; www.ConLiGen.org ). Higher SCZ and MD PRSs were associated with poorer lithium treatment response whereas BD-PRS had no association with treatment outcome. The combined MET2-PRS comprising of SCZ and MD variants (MET2-PRS) and a model using SCZ and MD-PRS sequentially improved response prediction, compared to single-disorder PRS or to a combined score using all three traits (MET3-PRS). Patients in the highest decile for MET2-PRS loading had 2.5 times higher odds of being classified as poor responders than patients with the lowest decile MET2-PRS scores. An exploratory functional pathway analysis of top MET2-PRS variants was conducted. Findings may inform the development of future testing strategies for personalized lithium prescribing in BD.

Comparison of traditional model-based statistical methods with machine learning for the prediction of suicide behaviour

BACKGROUND

Despite considerable research efforts during the last five decades, the prediction of suicidal behaviour (SB) using traditional model-based statistical has been weak. This marks the need to explore new statistical methods.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the performance of Cox regression models versus Random Survival Forest (RSF) to predict SB.

METHODS

Using a data set of more than 300 high-risk suicidal patients from a multicenter prospective cohort study, we compare Cox regression models with RSF to address predictors of time to suicide reattempt. Cross-validation was used to assess model prediction performance, including the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), precision, Integrated Brier Score (IBS), sensitivity, and specificity.

RESULTS

A variant of the RSF denominated the RSFElimin, in which irrelevant predictor variables were eliminated from the model, presented the best accuracy, sensitivity, AUC and IBS. At the same time, the sensitivity of this method was slightly lower than that obtained with the Cox regression model with all predictor variables (CoxComp).

CONCLUSION

The RSF, a machine learning model, seems more sensitive and precise than the traditional Cox regression model in predicting suicidal behaviour.

Predicting Serum Levels of Lithium-Treated Patients: A Supervised Machine Learning Approach

Routine monitoring of lithium levels is common clinical practice. This is because the lithium prediction strategies available developed by previous studies are still limited due to insufficient prediction performance. Thus, we used machine learning approaches to predict lithium concentration in a large real-world dataset. Real-world data from multicenter electronic medical records were used in different machine learning algorithms to predict: (1) whether the serum level was 0.6–1.2 mmol/L or 0.0–0.6 mmol/L (binary prediction), and (2) its concentration value (continuous prediction). We developed models from 1505 samples through 5-fold cross-validation and used 204 independent samples to test their performance by evaluating their accuracy. Moreover, we ranked the most important clinical features in different models and reconstructed three reduced models with fewer clinical features. For binary and continuous predictions, the average accuracy of these models was 0.70–0.73 and 0.68–0.75, respectively. Seven features were listed as important features related to serum lithium levels of 0.6–1.2 mmol/L or higher lithium concentration, namely older age, lower systolic blood pressure, higher daily and last doses of lithium prescription, concomitant psychotropic drugs with valproic acid and -pine drugs, and comorbid substance-related disorders. After reducing the features in the three new predictive models, the binary or continuous models still had an average accuracy of 0.67–0.74. Machine learning processes complex clinical data and provides a potential tool for predicting lithium concentration. This may help in clinical decision-making and reduce the frequency of serum level monitoring.

Ultra-long-term lithium therapy: all-important matters and a case of successful 50-year lithium treatment

This paper discusses essential issues related to long-term lithium therapy and presents a case of successful 50-year lithium treatment. Lithium is currently regarded as the drug of choice for preventing manic and depressive recurrences in bipolar disorder. In 1/3 of patients with bipolar disorder, long-term monotherapy with lithium can completely prevent recurrences of abnormal mood. Numerous clinical and psychosocial factors associated with a good response to lithium have been described. Lithium is more efficacious than other mood stabilizers, and its long-term treatment significantly exceeds them. Lithium also exerts antisuicidal, immunomodulatory, and neuroprotective effects. The main problems associated with long-term lithium treatment include kidney, thyroid, and probably cognitive issues. In this paper, a case of successful continuous lithium treatment for 50 years in a 79-year-old female patient is presented. In this patient, apart from maintaining a euthymic state, long-term lithium treatment also exerted a favorable effect on general health, especially the elimination of viral and other respiratory infections. It is concluded that ultra-long term lithium therapy can enable good professional and psychosocial functioning for many patients, and the possible somatic side effects are manageable.

The costs and benefits of intensive day treatment programs and outpatient treatments for eating disorders: An idea worth researching

Outpatient care (e.g., individual, group, or self-help therapies) and day treatment programs (DTPs) are common and effective treatments for adults with eating disorders. Compared to outpatient care, DTPs have additional expenses and could have unintended iatrogenic effects (e.g., may create an overly protective environment that undermines self-efficacy). However, these potential downsides may be offset if DTPs are shown to have advantages over outpatient care. To explore this question, our team conducted a scoping review that aimed to synthesize the existing body of adult eating disorder literature (a) comparing outcomes for DTPs to outpatient care, and (b) examining the use of DTPs as a higher level of care in a stepped care model. Only four studies met the predefined search criteria. The limited results suggest that the treatments have similar effects and that outpatient care is more cost-effective. Furthermore, no studies explored the use of DTPs as a higher level of care in a stepped care model (despite international guidelines recommending this approach). Given the clear dearth of literature on this clinically relevant topic, we have provided specific avenues for further research.

DSM-5 and ICD-11 criteria for bipolar disorder: Implications for the prevalence of bipolar disorder and validity of the diagnosis - A narrative review from the ECNP bipolar disorders network

This narrative review summarizes and discusses the implications of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM)-5 and the upcoming International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11 classification systems on the prevalence of bipolar disorder and on the validity of the DSM-5 diagnosis of bipolar disorder according to the Robin and Guze criteria of diagnostic validity. Here we review and discuss current data on the prevalence of bipolar disorder diagnosed according to DSM-5 versus DSM-IV, and data on characteristics of bipolar disorder in the two diagnostic systems in relation to extended Robin and Guze criteria: 1) clinical presentation, 2) associations with para-clinical data such as brain imaging and blood-based biomarkers, 3) delimitation from other disorders, 4) associations with family history / genetics, 5) prognosis and long-term follow-up, and 6) treatment effects. The review highlights that few studies have investigated consequences for the prevalence of the diagnosis of bipolar disorder and for the validity of the diagnosis. Findings from these studies suggest a substantial decrease in the point prevalence of a diagnosis of bipolar with DSM-5 compared with DSM-IV, ranging from 30-50%, but a smaller decrease in the prevalence during lifetime, corresponding to a 6% reduction. It is concluded that it is likely that the use of DSM-5 and ICD-11 will result in diagnostic delay and delayed early intervention in bipolar disorder. Finally, we recommend areas for future research.

The promise of machine learning in predicting treatment outcomes in psychiatry

For many years, psychiatrists have tried to understand factors involved in response to medications or psychotherapies, in order to personalize their treatment choices. There is now a broad and growing interest in the idea that we can develop models to personalize treatment decisions using new statistical approaches from the field of machine learning and applying them to larger volumes of data. In this pursuit, there has been a paradigm shift away from experimental studies to confirm or refute specific hypotheses towards a focus on the overall explanatory power of a predictive model when tested on new, unseen datasets. In this paper, we review key studies using machine learning to predict treatment outcomes in psychiatry, ranging from medications and psychotherapies to digital interventions and neurobiological treatments. Next, we focus on some new sources of data that are being used for the development of predictive models based on machine learning, such as electronic health records, smartphone and social media data, and on the potential utility of data from genetics, electrophysiology, neuroimaging and cognitive testing. Finally, we discuss how far the field has come towards implementing prediction tools in real-world clinical practice. Relatively few retrospective studies to-date include appropriate external validation procedures, and there are even fewer prospective studies testing the clinical feasibility and effectiveness of predictive models. Applications of machine learning in psychiatry face some of the same ethical challenges posed by these techniques in other areas of medicine or computer science, which we discuss here. In short, machine learning is a nascent but important approach to improve the effectiveness of mental health care, and several prospective clinical studies suggest that it may be working already.

Posttranslational modifications & lithium's therapeutic effect-Potential biomarkers for clinical responses in psychiatric & neurodegenerative disorders

Several neurodegenerative diseases and neuropsychiatric disorders display aberrant posttranslational modifications (PTMs) of one, or many, proteins. Lithium treatment has been used for mood stabilization for many decades, and is highly effective for large subsets of patients with diverse neurological conditions. However, the differential effectiveness and mode of action are not fully understood. In recent years, studies have shown that lithium alters several protein PTMs, altering their function, and consequently neuronal physiology. The impetus for this review is to outline the links between lithium's therapeutic mode of action and PTM homeostasis. We first provide an overview of the principal PTMs affected by lithium. We then describe several neuropsychiatric disorders in which PTMs have been implicated as pathogenic. For each of these conditions, we discuss lithium's clinical use and explore the putative mechanism of how it restores PTM homeostasis, and thereby cellular physiology. Evidence suggests that determining specific PTM patterns could be a promising strategy to develop biomarkers for disease and lithium responsiveness.

Prediction of lithium response using genomic data

Predicting lithium response prior to treatment could both expedite therapy and avoid exposure to side effects. Since lithium responsiveness may be heritable, its predictability based on genomic data is of interest. We thus evaluate the degree to which lithium response can be predicted with a machine learning (ML) approach using genomic data. Using the largest existing genomic dataset in the lithium response literature (n = 2210 across 14 international sites; 29% responders), we evaluated the degree to which lithium response could be predicted based on 47,465 genotyped single nucleotide polymorphisms using a supervised ML approach. Under appropriate cross-validation procedures, lithium response could be predicted to above-chance levels in two constituent sites (Halifax, Cohen’s kappa 0.15, 95% confidence interval, CI [0.07, 0.24]; and Würzburg, kappa 0.2 [0.1, 0.3]). Variants with shared importance in these models showed over-representation of postsynaptic membrane related genes. Lithium response was not predictable in the pooled dataset (kappa 0.02 [− 0.01, 0.04]), although non-trivial performance was achieved within a restricted dataset including only those patients followed prospectively (kappa 0.09 [0.04, 0.14]). Genomic classification of lithium response remains a promising but difficult task. Classification performance could potentially be improved by further harmonization of data collection procedures.

Exemplar scoring identifies genetically separable phenotypes of lithium responsive bipolar disorder

Predicting lithium response (LiR) in bipolar disorder (BD) may inform treatment planning, but phenotypic heterogeneity complicates discovery of genomic markers. We hypothesized that patients with "exemplary phenotypes"-those whose clinical features are reliably associated with LiR and non-response (LiNR)-are more genetically separable than those with less exemplary phenotypes. Using clinical data collected from people with BD (n = 1266 across 7 centers; 34.7% responders), we computed a "clinical exemplar score," which measures the degree to which a subject's clinical phenotype is reliably predictive of LiR/LiNR. For patients whose genotypes were available (n = 321), we evaluated whether a subgroup of responders/non-responders with the top 25% of clinical exemplar scores (the "best clinical exemplars") were more accurately classified based on genetic data, compared to a subgroup with the lowest 25% of clinical exemplar scores (the "poor clinical exemplars"). On average, the best clinical exemplars of LiR had a later illness onset, completely episodic clinical course, absence of rapid cycling and psychosis, and few psychiatric comorbidities. The best clinical exemplars of LiR and LiNR were genetically separable with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.88 (IQR [0.83, 0.98]), compared to 0.66 [0.61, 0.80] (p = 0.0032) among poor clinical exemplars. Variants in the Alzheimer's amyloid-secretase pathway, along with G-protein-coupled receptor, muscarinic acetylcholine, and histamine H1R signaling pathways were informative predictors. This study must be replicated on larger samples and extended to predict response to other mood stabilizers.

Socio-demographic and clinical predictors of outcome to long-term treatment with lithium in bipolar disorders: a systematic review of the contemporary literature and recommendations from the ISBD/IGSLI Task Force on treatment with lithium

Objective

To identify possible socio-demographic and clinical factors associated with Good Outcome (GO) as compared with Poor Outcome (PO) in adult patients diagnosed with Bipolar Disorder (BD) who received long-term treatment with lithium.

Methods

A comprehensive search of major electronic databases was performed to identify relevant studies that included adults patients (18 years or older) with a diagnosis of BD and reported sociodemographic and/or clinical variables associated with treatment response and/or with illness outcome during long-term treatment to lithium (> = 6 months). The quality of the studies was scored using the Quality Assessment Tool for Observational Cohort and Cross-Sectional Studies from the National Institute of Health.

Results

Following review, 34 publications (from 31 independent datasets) were eligible for inclusion in this review. Most of them (n = 25) used a retrospective design. Only 11 studies were graded as good or borderline good quality. Forty-three potential predictors of outcome to lithium were identified. Four factors were associated with PO to lithium: alcohol use disorder; personality disorders; higher lifetime number of hospital admissions and rapid cycling pattern. Two factors were associated with GO in patients treated with lithium: good social support and episodic evolution of BD. However, when the synthesis of findings was limited to the highest (good or borderline good) quality studies (11 studies), only higher lifetime number of hospitalization admissions remained associated with PO to lithium and no associations remained for GO to lithium.

Conclusion

Despite decades of research on lithium and its clinical use, besides lifetime number of hospital admissions, no factor being consistently associated with GO or PO to lithium was identified. Hence, there remains a substantial gap in our understanding of predictors of outcome of lithium treatment indicating there is a need of high quality research on large representative samples.

The definition and measurement of heterogeneity

Heterogeneity is an important concept in psychiatric research and science more broadly. It negatively impacts effect size estimates under case-control paradigms, and it exposes important flaws in our existing categorical nosology. Yet, our field has no precise definition of heterogeneity proper. We tend to quantify heterogeneity by measuring associated correlates such as entropy or variance: practices which are akin to accepting the radius of a sphere as a measure of its volume. Under a definition of heterogeneity as the degree to which a system deviates from perfect conformity, this paper argues that its proper measure roughly corresponds to the size of a system's event/sample space, and has units known as numbers equivalent. We arrive at this conclusion through focused review of more than 100 years of (re)discoveries of indices by ecologists, economists, statistical physicists, and others. In parallel, we review psychiatric approaches for quantifying heterogeneity, including but not limited to studies of symptom heterogeneity, microbiome biodiversity, cluster-counting, and time-series analyses. We argue that using numbers equivalent heterogeneity measures could improve the interpretability and synthesis of psychiatric research on heterogeneity. However, significant limitations must be overcome for these measures-largely developed for economic and ecological research-to be useful in modern translational psychiatric science.

Translating big data to better treatment in bipolar disorder - a manifesto for coordinated action

Bipolar disorder (BD) is a major healthcare and socio-economic challenge. Despite its substantial burden on society, the research activity in BD is much smaller than its economic impact appears to demand. There is a consensus that the accurate identification of the underlying pathophysiology for BD is fundamental to realize major health benefits through better treatment and preventive regimens. However, to achieve these goals requires coordinated action and innovative approaches to boost the discovery of the neurobiological underpinnings of BD, and rapid translation of research findings into development and testing of better and more specific treatments. To this end, we here propose that only a large-scale coordinated action can be successful in integrating international big-data approaches with real-world clinical interventions. This could be achieved through the creation of a Global Bipolar Disorder Foundation, which could bring government, industry and philanthropy together in common cause. A global initiative for BD research would come at a highly opportune time given the seminal advances promised for our understanding of the genetic and brain basis of the disease and the obvious areas of unmet clinical need. Such an endeavour would embrace the principles of open science and see the strong involvement of user groups and integration of dissemination and public involvement with the research programs. We believe the time is right for a step change in our approach to understanding, treating and even preventing BD effectively.

Depression Preceding Diagnosis of Bipolar Disorder

This paper focuses on depression that precedes an onset of manifest bipolar disorder as early stage bipolar disorder. First, we review how to pragmatically identify the clinical characteristics of patients presenting with an episode of depression who subsequently go on to develop episodes of mania or hypomania. The existing literature shows a strong consensus: accurate identification of depression with early onset and recurrent course with multiple episodes, subthreshold hypomanic and/or mixed symptoms, and family history of bipolar disorder or completed suicide have been shown by multiple authors as signs pointing to bipolar diagnosis. This contrasts with relatively limited information available to guide management of such "pre-bipolar" (pre-declared bipolar) patients, especially those in the adult age range. Default assumption of unipolar depression at this stage carries significant risk. Antidepressants are still the most common pharmacological treatment used, but clinicians need to be aware of their potential harm. In some patients with unrecognized bipolar depression, antidepressants can not only produce switch to (hypo)mania, but also mixed symptoms, or worsening of depression with an increased risk of suicide. We review pragmatic management strategies in the literature beyond clinical guidelines that can be considered for this at-risk group encompassing the more recent child and adolescent literature. In the future, genetic research could make the early identification of bipolar depression easier by generating informative markers and polygenic risk scores.

Challenges and Future Prospects of Precision Medicine in Psychiatry

Precision medicine is increasingly recognized as a promising approach to improve disease treatment, taking into consideration the individual clinical and biological characteristics shared by specific subgroups of patients. In specific fields such as oncology and hematology, precision medicine has already started to be implemented in the clinical setting and molecular testing is routinely used to select treatments with higher efficacy and reduced adverse effects. The application of precision medicine in psychiatry is still in its early phases. However, there are already examples of predictive models based on clinical data or combinations of clinical, neuroimaging and biological data. While the power of single clinical predictors would remain inadequate if analyzed only with traditional statistical approaches, these predictors are now increasingly used to impute machine learning models that can have adequate accuracy even in the presence of relatively small sample size. These models have started to be applied to disentangle relevant clinical questions that could lead to a more effective management of psychiatric disorders, such as prediction of response to the mood stabilizer lithium, resistance to antidepressants in major depressive disorder or stratification of the risk and outcome prediction in schizophrenia. In this narrative review, we summarized the most important findings in precision medicine in psychiatry based on studies that constructed machine learning models using clinical, neuroimaging and/or biological data. Limitations and barriers to the implementation of precision psychiatry in the clinical setting, as well as possible solutions and future perspectives, will be presented.

Lithium treatment in the era of personalized medicine

In 1949, an Australian psychiatrist, John Cade, reported on the antimanic efficacy of lithium carbonate, which is regarded as an introduction of lithium into contemporary psychiatry. Since the 1960s, lithium has been a precursor of mood stabilizers and has become first-choice drug for the prevention of affective episodes in mood disorders. For nearly four decades, lithium has also been used for the augmentation of antidepressant drugs in treatment-resistant depression. The knowledge of clinical and biological factors connected with the capability of long-term lithium treatment to prevent manic and depressive recurrences makes an important element of the personalized medicine of mood disorders. Excellent prophylactic lithium responders can be characterized by distinct mood episodes, with full remissions between them, the absence of other psychiatric morbidity, and the family history of bipolar illness. In recent years, many other clinical and biological factors connected with such a response have been identified, helping to select the best candidates for lithium prophylaxis. The antisuicidal effect of lithium during its long-term administration has been demonstrated and should also be taken into account as the element of personalized medicine for the pharmacological prophylaxis of patients with mood disorders. Several studies pertaining to personalized medicine were also dedicated to lithium treatment of acute mood episodes. Lithium still has a value in the treatment of mania and bipolar depression. However, it seems that the more important indication would be the augmentation of antidepressant drugs in treatment-resistant depression. The factors connected with the efficacy of lithium in these conditions are reviewed.

Precision Psychiatry Applications with Pharmacogenomics: Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Approaches

A growing body of evidence now suggests that precision psychiatry, an interdisciplinary field of psychiatry, precision medicine, and pharmacogenomics, serves as an indispensable foundation of medical practices by offering the accurate medication with the accurate dose at the accurate time to patients with psychiatric disorders. In light of the latest advancements in artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques, numerous biomarkers and genetic loci associated with psychiatric diseases and relevant treatments are being discovered in precision psychiatry research by employing neuroimaging and multi-omics. In this review, we focus on the latest developments for precision psychiatry research using artificial intelligence and machine learning approaches, such as deep learning and neural network algorithms, together with multi-omics and neuroimaging data. Firstly, we review precision psychiatry and pharmacogenomics studies that leverage various artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques to assess treatment prediction, prognosis prediction, diagnosis prediction, and the detection of potential biomarkers. In addition, we describe potential biomarkers and genetic loci that have been discovered to be associated with psychiatric diseases and relevant treatments. Moreover, we outline the limitations in regard to the previous precision psychiatry and pharmacogenomics studies. Finally, we present a discussion of directions and challenges for future research.

Asymmetrical reliability of the Alda score favours a dichotomous representation of lithium responsiveness

The Alda score is commonly used to quantify lithium responsiveness in bipolar disorder. Most often, this score is dichotomized into “responder” and “non-responder” categories, respectively. This practice is often criticized as inappropriate, since continuous variables are thought to invariably be “more informative” than their dichotomizations. We therefore investigated the degree of informativeness across raw and dichotomized versions of the Alda score, using data from a published study of the scale’s inter-rater reliability (n = 59 raters of 12 standardized vignettes each). After learning a generative model for the relationship between observed and ground truth scores (the latter defined by a consensus rating of the 12 vignettes), we show that the dichotomized scale is more robust to inter-rater disagreement than the raw 0-10 scale. Further theoretical analysis shows that when a measure’s reliability is stronger at one extreme of the continuum—a scenario which has received little-to-no statistical attention, but which likely occurs for the Alda score ≥ 7—dichotomization of a continuous variable may be more informative concerning its ground truth value, particularly in the presence of noise. Our study suggests that research employing the Alda score of lithium responsiveness should continue using the dichotomous definition, particularly when data are sampled across multiple raters.