Evaluating density-weighted connectivity of black bears (Ursus americanus) in Glacier National Park with spatial capture-recapture models

BACKGROUND

Improved understanding of wildlife population connectivity among protected area networks can support effective planning for the persistence of wildlife populations in the face of land use and climate change. Common approaches to estimating connectivity often rely on small samples of individuals without considering the spatial structure of populations, leading to limited understanding of how individual movement links to demography and population connectivity. Recently developed spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models provide a framework to formally connect inference about individual movement, connectivity, and population density, but few studies have applied this approach to empirical data to support connectivity planning.

METHODS

We used mark-recapture data collected from 924 genetic detections of 598 American black bears (Ursus americanus) in 2004 with SCR ecological distance models to simultaneously estimate density, landscape resistance to movement, and population connectivity in Glacier National Park northwest Montana, USA. We estimated density and movement parameters separately for males and females and used model estimates to calculate predicted density-weighted connectivity surfaces.

RESULTS

Model results indicated that landscape structure influences black bear density and space use in Glacier. The mean density estimate was 16.08 bears/100 km2 (95% CI 12.52-20.6) for females and 9.27 bears/100 km2 (95% CI 7.70-11.14) for males. Density increased with forest cover for both sexes. For male black bears, density decreased at higher grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) densities. Drainages, valley bottoms, and riparian vegetation decreased estimates of landscape resistance to movement for male and female bears. For males, forest cover also decreased estimated resistance to movement, but a transportation corridor bisecting the study area strongly increased resistance to movement presenting a barrier to connectivity.

CONCLUSIONS

Density-weighed connectivity surfaces highlighted areas important for population connectivity that were distinct from areas with high potential connectivity. For black bears in Glacier and surrounding landscapes, consideration of both vegetation and valley topography could inform the placement of underpasses along the transportation corridor in areas characterized by both high population density and potential connectivity. Our study demonstrates that the SCR ecological distance model can provide biologically realistic, spatially explicit predictions to support movement connectivity planning across large landscapes.

Roadkill risk model of black bear (Ursus americanus) in Mexico

One of the most obvious impacts of roads is roadkill, a problem that is recently being addressed in Mexico. However, there are economic and human resource limitations to monitor the entire road network, assess its impacts, and propose mitigation measures. The black bear (Ursus americanus) is a top predator and the largest terrestrial mammal distributed in Mexico, currently the only of the Ursidae family. In recent years, its presence near human settlements and incidents on roads has increased. We generated a single MaxEnt model to identify characteristics of sites with high black bear roadkill risk and to identify these areas within protected natural areas. We obtained 83 bear roadkill records between 2008 and 2022, and we used a set of 16 variables that included landscape, road variables, and human variables. The model had an area under curve value of 0.96 indicating good performance and the Jacknife analysis identified influence on the roadkill risk of the distance to water bodies, protected areas, scrubland, drainages, and speed limit. We identified 3883.25 km of roads at high roadkill risk for black bears of which, 373.10 (9.6%) km were inside protected areas. We suggest placing speed bumps and effective signage on high-risk sections as a short-term, low-cost strategy. The results help to focus conservation efforts to specific sections of the road network, as roadkill is an increasing source of mortality that has not been evaluated for black bear in Mexico. This information is applicable for mitigating the impacts of existing roads and for planning new projects that have less impact on wild black bear populations and, at the same time, increase the safety of vehicle drivers.

Spatially prioritizing mitigation for amphibian roadkills based on fatality estimation and landscape conversion

Roads cause biodiversity loss and the effects of wildlife-vehicle collisions may ripple from individuals and populations to ecosystem functioning. Amphibians are threatened worldwide and, despite being particularly prone to roadkill impacts, they are often neglected in assessments. Here, we develop a sampling and analytical framework for spatially prioritizing mitigation actions for anuran amphibian roadkills based on fatality estimation and landscape conversion. The framework is composed of the six following steps: (1) pre-selection of segments to survey using the wetland coverage in the surroundings and the presence of roadkills of aquatic reptiles as a proxy for wet areas; (2) spatiotemporally replicated counts with a dependent double-observer protocol, that is, each segment is sampled multiple times by two pairs of people on foot; (3) extraction of covariates hypothesized to affect spatial and temporal variation in roadkill rates and persistence; (4) hierarchical open-population N-mixture modelling to estimate population dynamics parameters, which accounts for imperfect detection and spatiotemporal heterogeneity in removal, detection, and roadkill rates, and explicitly estimates carcass entries per time interval. (5) Assessment of land cover transition to infer landscape stability; and (6) prioritization of segments based on higher fatality rates and lower landscape conversion rates. We estimated a mean of 136 (95%CrI = 130–142) anurans roadkill per km per day in the 50 sample sites selected. The initial number of carcasses had a positive relationship with the percentage occupied by wetlands and a negative association with the percentage occupied by urban areas. The number of entrant carcass per interval was higher in the presence of rainfall and had a positive association with the wetlands cover. Carcass persistence probability was higher at night and lower in sites with high traffic volume. Ten segments (~1% of road extension) were prioritized using the median as threshold for fatality estimates and landscape conversion. It is urgent to appropriately evaluate the number of amphibians roadkilled aiming to plan and implement mitigation measures specifically designed for these small animals. Our approach accounts for feasibility (focused on sites with greater relevance), robustness (considering imperfect detection), and steadiness (less prone to loss of effectiveness due to landscape dynamics).

Delineating Functional Corridors Linking Leopard Habitat in the Eastern and Western Cape, South Africa

Natural landscapes are increasingly fragmented due to human activity. This contributes to isolation and inadequate gene flow among wildlife populations. These threats intensify where populations are already low, and gene flow is compromised. Ensuring habitat connectivity despite transformed landscapes can mitigate these risks. Leopards are associated with high levels of biodiversity and are the last widely occurring, free-roaming apex predator in South Africa. Although highly adaptable, leopard survival is reduced by human-caused mortality and habitat destruction. We aimed to assess the connectivity of leopard habitat in the Eastern Cape and Western Cape, South Africa. We predicted leopard habitat by correlating GPS data from 31 leopards to environmental features that included human-associated and natural landscapes. We used circuit theory to delineate corridors linking known leopard populations. Finally, using camera traps, we tested whether five predicted corridors were used by leopards. Leopard habitat was strongly correlated to moderate slopes and areas of natural land-cover and plantations, highlighting mountainous areas as important habitat with high connectivity probability. While most habitat patches showed some level of connectivity, leopards avoided highly transformed landscapes, potentially isolating some populations. Where corridors are not functional, active conservation measures for species connectivity becomes important.

Multiscale consensus habitat modeling for landscape level conservation prioritization

Globally, wide-ranging carnivore populations are imperiled due to human-caused habitat fragmentation. Where populations are fragmented, habitat quantification is often the first step in conservation. Presence-only species distribution models can provide robust results when proper scales and data are considered. We aimed to identify habitat for a fragmented carnivore population at two scales and aid conservation prioritization by identifying potential future habitat fragmentation. We used location data and environmental variables to develop a consensus model using Maxent and Mahalanobis distance to identify black bear (Ursus americanus floridanus) habitat across Florida, USA. We compared areas of habitat to areas of predicted sea level rise, development, and protected areas. Local-scale models performed better than state-scale models. We identified 23,798 km2 of habitat at the local-scale and 45,703 km2 at the state-scale. Approximately 10% of state- and 14% of local-scale habitat may be inundated by 2100, 16% of state- and 7% of local-scale habitat may be developed, and 54% of state- and 15% of local-scale habitat is unprotected. Results suggest habitat is at risk of fragmentation. Lack of focused conservation and connectivity among bear subpopulations could further fragmentation, and ultimately threaten population stability as seen in other fragmented carnivore populations globally.