Model-based economic evaluations in smoking cessation and their transferability to new contexts: a systematic review

A smoking cessation smartphone app that delivers real-time 'context aware' behavioural support: the Quit Sense feasibility RCT

Background

During a quit attempt, cues from a smoker's environment are a major cause of brief smoking lapses, which increase the risk of relapse. Quit Sense is a theory-guided Just-In-Time Adaptive Intervention smartphone app, providing smokers with the means to learn about their environmental smoking cues and provides 'in the moment' support to help them manage these during a quit attempt.

Objective

To undertake a feasibility randomised controlled trial to estimate key parameters to inform a definitive randomised controlled trial of Quit Sense.

Design

A parallel, two-arm randomised controlled trial with a qualitative process evaluation and a 'Study Within A Trial' evaluating incentives on attrition. The research team were blind to allocation except for the study statistician, database developers and lead researcher. Participants were not blind to allocation.

Setting

Online with recruitment, enrolment, randomisation and data collection (excluding manual telephone follow-up) automated through the study website.

Participants

Smokers (323 screened, 297 eligible, 209 enrolled) recruited via online adverts on Google search, Facebook and Instagram.

Interventions

Participants were allocated to 'usual care' arm (n = 105; text message referral to the National Health Service SmokeFree website) or 'usual care' plus Quit Sense (n = 104), via a text message invitation to install the Quit Sense app.

Main outcome measures

Follow-up at 6 weeks and 6 months post enrolment was undertaken by automated text messages with an online questionnaire link and, for non-responders, by telephone. Definitive trial progression criteria were met if a priori thresholds were included in or lower than the 95% confidence interval of the estimate. Measures included health economic and outcome data completion rates (progression criterion #1 threshold: ≥ 70%), including biochemical validation rates (progression criterion #2 threshold: ≥ 70%), recruitment costs, app installation (progression criterion #3 threshold: ≥ 70%) and engagement rates (progression criterion #4 threshold: ≥ 60%), biochemically verified 6-month abstinence and hypothesised mechanisms of action and participant views of the app (qualitative).

Results

Self-reported smoking outcome completion rates were 77% (95% confidence interval 71% to 82%) and health economic data (resource use and quality of life) 70% (95% CI 64% to 77%) at 6 months. Return rate of viable saliva samples for abstinence verification was 39% (95% CI 24% to 54%). The per-participant recruitment cost was £19.20, which included advert (£5.82) and running costs (£13.38). In the Quit Sense arm, 75% (95% CI 67% to 83%; 78/104) installed the app and, of these, 100% set a quit date within the app and 51% engaged with it for more than 1 week. The rate of 6-month biochemically verified sustained abstinence, which we anticipated would be used as a primary outcome in a future study, was 11.5% (12/104) in the Quit Sense arm and 2.9% (3/105) in the usual care arm (estimated effect size: adjusted odds ratio = 4.57, 95% CIs 1.23 to 16.94). There was no evidence of between-arm differences in hypothesised mechanisms of action. Three out of four progression criteria were met. The Study Within A Trial analysis found a £20 versus £10 incentive did not significantly increase follow-up rates though reduced the need for manual follow-up and increased response speed. The process evaluation identified several potential pathways to abstinence for Quit Sense, factors which led to disengagement with the app, and app improvement suggestions.

Limitations

Biochemical validation rates were lower than anticipated and imbalanced between arms. COVID-19-related restrictions likely limited opportunities for Quit Sense to provide location tailored support.

Conclusions

The trial design and procedures demonstrated feasibility and evidence was generated supporting the efficacy potential of Quit Sense.

Future work

Progression to a definitive trial is warranted providing improved biochemical validation rates.

Trial registration

This trial is registered as ISRCTN12326962.

Funding

This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme (NIHR award ref: 17/92/31) and is published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 12, No. 4. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Considerations for transferability of health technology assessments: a scoping review of tools, methods, and practices

Health technology assessment (HTA) is commonly used to guide evidence-informed decisions to optimize resource use, prioritize policies, and support countries to achieve universal health coverage. Producing HTAs requires time, scientific expertise, and political commitment, but these are not available in all settings - especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) where HTA processes may be less institutionalized. Transferring and adapting existing HTAs to local settings may offer a solution while reducing duplication efforts. This scoping review aims to provide an overview of tools, methods, approaches, and considerations which can aid HTA transfers. We systematically searched (from 2005 to 2020) six databases and, using predefined inclusion criteria, included twenty-two studies. Data extraction followed a structured process, while synthesis was more iterative. We identified a common approach for HTA transfers. It follows the de novo process of undertaking original HTAs, but with additional steps to assess relevance (applicability), quality, and transferability, as well as steps to adapt parameters where necessary. The EUnetHTA Adaptation Toolkit was the only tool that provided guidance for adapting multiple HTA domains. Other tools were specific to systematic reviews (n = 1) or economic evaluations (n = 12), where one provided guidance for systematic reviews of economic evaluations. Eight papers reported transferring an HTA, with only one transferring to an LMIC. Finally, we reported issues that may facilitate or hinder transferability. In conclusion, we identified fourteen transfer approaches in the form of guidance or checklists, but harmonized and pragmatic guidance for HTA transfers to suit settings with limited HTA capacity seems warranted.

Economic evaluations of tobacco control interventions in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Tobacco consumption and its associated adverse outcomes remain major public health issues, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This systematic review aimed to identify and critically assess full economic evaluations for tobacco control interventions in low- and middle-income countries.

METHODS

Electronic databases, including EMBASE, MEDLINE and PsycINFO and the grey literature, were searched using terms such as 'tobacco', 'economic evaluation' and 'smoking' from 1994 to 2020. Study quality was assessed using the Consensus Health Economic Criteria and the Philips checklist. Studies were included which were full economic evaluations of tobacco control interventions in low- and middle-income settings. Reviews, commentaries, conference proceedings and abstracts were excluded. Study selection and quality assessment were conducted by two reviewers independently. A narrative synthesis was conducted to synthesize the findings of the studies.

RESULTS

This review identified 20 studies for inclusion. The studies evaluated a wide range of interventions, including tax increase, nicotine replacement therapy (nicotine patch/gum) and financial incentives. Overall, 12 interventions were reported to be cost-effective, especially tax increases for tobacco consumption and cessation counselling. There were considerable limitations regarding data sources (e.g. using cost data from other countries or assumptions due to the lack of local data) and the model structure; sensitivity analyses were inadequately described in many studies; and there were issues around the transferability of results to other settings. Additionally, the affordability of the interventions was only discussed in two studies.

CONCLUSIONS

There are few high-quality studies of the cost-effectiveness of tobacco use control interventions in low- and middle-income countries. The methodological limitations of the existing literatures could affect the generalizability of the findings.

A systematic review of economic evaluations of preoperative smoking cessation for preventing surgical complications

BACKGROUND

Whilst there is a substantial body of evidence on the costs and benefits of smoking cessation generally, the benefits of routinely providing smoking cessation for surgical populations are less well known. This review summarises the evidence on the cost-effectiveness of preoperative smoking cessation to prevent surgical complications.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A search of the Cochrane, Econlit, EMBASE, Health Technology Assessment, Medline Complete and Scopus databases was conducted from inception until 23/06/2021. Peer-reviewed, English-language articles describing economic evaluations of preoperative smoking cessation interventions to prevent surgical complications were included. Search results were independently screened for potentially eligible studies. Study characteristics, economic evaluation methods and cost-effectiveness results were extracted by one reviewer and details checked by a second. Two authors independently assessed reporting and methodological quality using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards statement (CHEERS) and the Quality of Health Economic Studies Instrument checklist (QHES) respectively.

RESULTS

After removing duplicates, twenty full text articles were screened from 1423 database records, resulting in six included economic evaluations. Studies from the United States (n = 4), France (n = 1) and Spain (n = 1) were reported between 2009 and 2020. Four evaluations were conducted from a payer perspective. Two-thirds of evaluations were well-conducted (mean score 83) and well-reported (on average, 86% items reported). All studies concluded preoperative smoking cessation is cost-effective for preventing surgical complications; results ranged from cost saving to €53,131 per quality adjusted life year gained.

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative smoking cessation is cost-effective for preventing surgical complications from a payer or provider perspective when compared to standard care. There is no evidence from outside the United States and Europe to inform healthcare providers, funders and policy-makers in other jurisdictions and more information is needed to clarify the optimal point of implementation to maximise cost-effectiveness of preoperative smoking cessation intervention.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION NUMBER

PROSPERO 2021 CRD42021257740. RESEARCH REGISTRY REGISTRATION NUMBER: reviewregistry1369.

Indirectness (transferability) is critical when considering existing economic evaluations for GRADE Clinical Practice Guidelines: A systematic review

OBJECTIVE

GRADE practice guideline developers often perform systematic reviews of potential economic evaluations to inform recommendation decision-making. We aimed to identify indirectness characteristics of economic evaluations, related to GRADE evidence-to-decision (EtD) theoretical frameworks, that influence selection of these articles.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and EconLit were systematically searched to May 2020 to identify indirectness characteristics relevant for economic evaluation transferability to GRADE evidence-to-decision (EtD) theoretical frameworks. Four reviewers screened citations to identify articles of any type that explored study characteristics most important or relevant to economic evaluation transferability, restricted to English language We generated frequencies of article features, used thematic analysis to summarize study characteristics and assessed certainty in the evidence using GRADE-CERQual.

RESULTS

We included 57 articles, with a dearth of empirical literature - some may have been missed. We identified 8 general themes and 28 sub-themes most important to transferability from 41% of articles. Moderate-to-high confidence evidence suggested that GRADE EtD domains of population, intervention and comparison research question elements, resource use estimation and methodology, and provider and decision-maker acceptability are most important indirectness study characteristics that economists consider when choosing economic evaluation outcomes for use in recommendation decision-making.

CONCLUSION

We have identified factors important for guideline developers to consider when selecting economic evaluations as research evidence. An economic competency on the development team facilitates these endeavors. This supports the GRADE Working Group's tenant of transparent reporting or availability of sufficient information elsewhere to assess indirectness.

Protocol for a systematic review of economic evaluations of preoperative smoking cessation interventions for preventing surgical complications

INTRODUCTION

The short-term economic benefit of embedding best practice tobacco dependence treatment (TDT) into healthcare services prior to surgery across different populations and jurisdictions is largely unknown. The aim of this systematic review is to summarise the cost-effectiveness of preoperative smoking cessation interventions for preventing surgical complications compared with usual care. The results will provide hospital managers, clinicians, healthcare professionals and policymakers with a critical summary of the economic evidence on providing TDT routinely before surgery, aiding the development and dissemination of unified, best practice guidelines, that is, implementation of article 14 of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A comprehensive search of peer-reviewed literature will be conducted from database inception until 23 June 2021 (Cochrane, Econlit, Embase, Health Technology Assessment, Medline Complete, Scopus). Published, English-language articles describing economic evaluations of preoperative smoking cessation interventions for preventing surgical complications will be included. One researcher will complete the searches and two researchers will independently screen results for eligible studies. Any disagreement will be resolved by the third researcher. A narrative summary of included studies will be provided. Study characteristics, economic evaluation methods and cost-effectiveness results will be extracted by one reviewer and descriptive analyses will be undertaken. A second reviewer will review data extracted for accuracy from 10% of the included studies. Reporting and methodological quality of the included studies will be evaluated independently by two reviewers using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards statement and the Quality of Health Economic Studies Instrument checklist, respectively.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This research does not require ethics approval because the study is a planned systematic review of published literature. Findings will be presented at health economic, public health and tobacco control conferences, published in a peer-reviewed journal and disseminated via social media.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42021257740.

Long-Term Cost-Effectiveness of Smoking Cessation Interventions in People With Mental Disorders: A Dynamic Decision Analytical Model

OBJECTIVES

People with mental disorders are more likely to smoke than the general population. The objective of this study is to develop a decision analytical model that estimates long-term cost-effectiveness of smoking cessation interventions in this population.

METHODS

A series of Markov models were constructed to estimate average lifetime smoking-attributable inpatient cost and expected quality-adjusted life-years. The model parameters were estimated using a variety of data sources. The model incorporated uncertainty through probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulations. It also generated tables presenting incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of the proposed interventions with varying incremental costs and incremental quit rates. We used data from 2 published trials to demonstrate the model's ability to make projections beyond the observational time frame.

RESULTS

The average smoker's smoking-attributable inpatient cost was 3 times higher and health utility was 5% lower than ex-smokers. The intervention in the trial with a statistically insignificant difference in quit rate (19% vs 25%; P=.2) showed a 45% to 49% chance of being cost-effective compared with the control at willingness-to-pay thresholds of £20 000 to £30 000/quality-adjusted life-years. The second trial had a significant outcome (quit rate 35.9% vs 15.6%; P<.001), and the corresponding probability of the intervention being cost-effective was 65%.

CONCLUSIONS

This model provides a consistent platform for clinical trials to estimate the potential lifetime cost-effectiveness of smoking cessation interventions for people with mental disorders and could help commissioners direct resources to the most cost-effective programs. However, direct comparisons of results between trials must be interpreted with caution owing to their different designs and settings.

What is the likely impact on surgical site infections in Australian hospitals if smoking rates are reduced? A cost analysis

INTRODUCTION

Assisting smokers to quit before surgery reduces surgical site infection (SSI) risk. The short-term economic benefits of reducing SSIs by embedding tobacco dependence treatment in Australian hospitals are unknown. Estimated annual number of SSIs prevented, and hospital bed-days (HBD) and costs saved from reducing smoking before surgery are calculated.

METHODS

The most recent number of surgical procedures and SSI rates for Australia were sourced. The number of smokers and non-smokers having a SSI were calculated using the UK Royal College of Physicians reported adjusted odds ratio (1.79), and the proportion of SSIs attributable to smoking calculated. The potential impact fraction was used to estimate reductions in SSIs and associated HBDs and costs from reducing the smoking rates among surgical patients from 23.9% to 10% or 5% targets. Uncertainty around the final estimates was calculated using probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

In 2016-17, approximately 40,593 (95% UI 32,543, 50,239) people having a surgical procedure in Australia experienced a SSI leading to 101,888 extra days (95% UI 49,988, 200,822) in hospital. If the smoking rate among surgical patients was reduced to 10%, 3,580 (95% UI 2,312, 5,178) SSIs would be prevented, and 8,985 (95% UI 4,094, 19,153) HBDs and $19.1M (95% UI $7.7M, $42.5M) saved in one year. If the smoking rate was reduced to 5%, 4,867 (95% UI 3,268, 6,867) SSIs would be prevented, and 12,217 (95% UI 5,614, 25,642) HBDs and $26.0M (95% UI $10.8M, $57.0M) would be saved.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest achieving smoking rate targets of 10% or 5% would provide substantial short-term health and economic benefits through reductions in SSIs. Embedding tobacco dependence treatment in Australian hospitals would provide value for money by reducing costs and improving clinical quality and safety. A more comprehensive, modelled economic evaluation synthesising the best available evidence is needed to confirm findings.

Tobacco Control Policy Simulation Models: Protocol for a Systematic Methodological Review

Background

Tobacco control models are mathematical models predicting tobacco-related outcomes in defined populations. The policy simulation model is considered as a subcategory of tobacco control models simulating the potential outcomes of tobacco control policy options. However, we could not identify any existing tool specifically designed to assess the quality of tobacco control models.

Objective

The aims of this systematic methodology review are to: (1) identify best modeling practices, (2) highlight common pitfalls, and (3) develop recommendations to assess the quality of tobacco control policy simulation models. Crucially, these recommendations can empower model users to assess the quality of current and future modeling studies, potentially leading to better tobacco policy decision-making for the public. This protocol describes the planned systematic review stages, paper inclusion and exclusion criteria, data extraction, and analysis.

Methods

Two reviewers searched five databases (Embase, EconLit, PsycINFO, PubMed, and CINAHL Plus) to identify eligible studies published between July 2013 and August 2019. We included papers projecting tobacco-related outcomes with a focus on tobacco control policies in any population and setting. Eligible papers were independently screened by two reviewers. The data extraction form was designed and piloted to extract model structure, data sources, transparency, validation, and other qualities. We will use a narrative synthesis to present the results by summarizing model trends, analyzing model approaches, and reporting data input and result quality. We will propose recommendations to assess the quality of tobacco control policy simulation models using the findings from this review and related literature.

Results

Data collection is in progress. Results are expected to be completed and submitted for publication by April 2021.

Conclusions

This systematic methodological review will summarize the best practices and pitfalls existing among tobacco control policy simulation models and present a recommendation list of a high-quality tobacco control simulation model. A more standardized and quality-assured tobacco control policy simulation model will benefit modelers, policymakers, and the public on both model building and decision making.

Trial Registration

PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews CRD42020178146; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42020178146

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/26854

A systematic review of economic evaluations of public health interventions targeting alcohol, tobacco, illicit drug use and problematic gambling: Using a case study to assess transferability

AIMS

To identify and assess the cost-effectiveness of public health interventions targeting the use of alcohol, illicit drugs and tobacco, as well as problematic gambling behavior (ANDTS), and consider whether the results from these evaluations are transferable to the Swedish setting.

METHODS

A systematic review of economic evaluations within the area of ANDTS was conducted including studies published between January 2000 and November 2018, identified through Medline, PsychINFO, Web of Science, the National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database and Health Technology Assessment. The quality of relevant studies and the possibilities of transferring results were assessed using criteria set out by the Swedish Agency for Health Technology Assessment.

RESULTS

Out of 54 relevant studies, 39 were of moderate to high quality and included in the review, however none for problematic gambling. Eighty-one out of a total of 91 interventions were cost-effective. The interventions largely focusing on taxed-based policies or screening and brief interventions. Thirteen of these studies were deemed to have high potential for transferability, with effect estimates considered relevant, and with good feasibility for implementation in Sweden.

CONCLUSIONS

Interventions targeting alcohol- and illicit-drug use and tobacco use are cost-effective approaches, and results may be transferred to the Swedish setting. Caution must be taken regarding cost estimates and the quality of the evidence which the studies are based upon.

Informing policy makers on the efficiency of population level tobacco control interventions in Asia: A systematic review of model-based economic evaluations

BACKGROUND

Economic evaluations of tobacco control interventions support decisions regarding resource allocation in public health policy. Our systematic review was aimed at identifying potential bias in decision models used to estimate the long-term costs and effects of population-based tobacco control interventions in Asia.

METHODS

We included studies conducted in Asian countries and using a modelling technique to evaluate the economic impacts of one or more population-based tobacco interventions in line with the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). We assessed the structure, input parameters, and risk of bias for each model, and performed a narrative synthesis of the included studies.

RESULTS

Nine model-based economic evaluation studies of population-based tobacco interventions were identified. About 60% of the criteria for reporting quality were met in all studies, indicating that reporting generally lacked transparency. The studies were highly heterogeneous in terms of the scope, types, and structures of their models and the quality of input parameters. One-third of the models applied in the studies scored a high risk of bias, with problems mostly falling into the following categories: model type, time horizons, and smoking transition probabilities.

CONCLUSIONS

More data are needed to provide high-quality evidence regarding the cost-effectiveness of tobacco control policies in Asia. Strong evidence at the country level hinges on the availability of accurate estimates of the effects of the interventions, the relative risks of smoking, and the price elasticity of the demand for tobacco. Simple transfers of models built in Western populations do not suffice.

PROTOCOL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD 42019141679.

Using cost-effectiveness analysis to support policy change: varenicline and nicotine replacement therapy for smoking cessation in Jordan

Background

Smoking cessation pharmacotherapies (SCPs) have been established as cost-effective for the treatment of tobacco use disorder across a variety of settings. In Jordan, a resource-constrained country where smoking rates rank at one of the highest globally, the cost-effectiveness of SCPs has not yet been quantified. The lack of information about the value of SCPs has contributed to low demand for them (from public and private payers) and consequently low availability of these medications. The aim of this study was to simulate—in a hypothetical cohort of Jordanian smokers—the clinical and economic impact of using two smoking cessation regimens and to generate cost-effectiveness values that can support policy changes to avail smoking cessation medication in a country burdened with heavy tobacco use.

Methods

We employed a similar approach to a widely used economic model, the Benefits of Smoking Cessation on Outcomes (BENESCO) model. A hypothetical cohort of Jordanian male smokers aged 30 to 70 years and making a quit attempt using either a varenicline regimen or a nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) regimen were followed over time (until reaching 70 years of age). Markov simulations were run for the cohort, and life years gained were computed for each arm (compared to no intervention). Drug costs, prevalence of smoking, and population life expectancies were based on Jordanian data. Efficacy data were obtained from the literature. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios as well as the potential budgetary impact of employing these regimens were generated. Several parameters were modified in sensitivity analyses to capture potential challenges unique to Jordan and that could impact the results.

Results

For a treatment cohort of 527,118 Jordanian male smokers who intended to quit, 103,970 life years were gained using the varenicline regimen, while 64,030 life years were gained using the NRT regimen (compared to the no-intervention arm of life years). The cost per life year gained was JD1204 ($1696 USD) and JD1342 ($1890 USD) for varenicline and NRT, respectively.

Economic evaluations of public health interventions for physical activity and healthy diet: A systematic review

Physical inactivity and unhealthy dietary habits are associated with an increased disease and economic burden. The aim of this systematic review was to identify economic evaluations of public health interventions targeting physical activity and healthy diet, and assess the quality and transferability of the findings to the Swedish context. A search of published economic evaluations was conducted through electronic databases including PubMed, Web of Science, PsycINFO, National Health Service Economic Evaluation Databases (NHS EED) and the Health Technology Assessment Database (HTA). An additional search was done using references of relevant systematic reviews and websites of relevant organizations were checked to find grey literature. Quality and transferability of the economic evaluations were appraised using a quality assessment tool developed by the Swedish Agency for Health Technology Assessment. Thirty-two economic evaluations, rated as moderate or high quality, of 178 interventions were included; thirteen studies targeting physical activity, thirteen targeting healthy diet and six targeting both. The interventions varied in terms of their content, setting, mode of delivery and target populations. A majority of the economic evaluations reported that the interventions were likely to be cost-effective; however, considerable variations in the methodological and reporting qualities were observed. Only half of the economic evaluations were rated to have a high probability of transferring to the Swedish context. Public health interventions targeting physical activity and dietary habits have a high potential to be cost-effective. However, decision makers should consider the variation in quality and transferability of the available evidence.

Simulating future public health benefits of tobacco control interventions: a systematic review of models

BACKGROUND

To prioritise tobacco control interventions, simulating their health impacts is valuable. We undertook a systematic review of tobacco intervention simulation models to assess model structure and input variations that may render model outputs non-comparable.

METHODS

We applied a Medline search with keywords intersecting modelling and tobacco. Papers were limited to those modelling health outputs (eg, mortality, health-adjusted life years), and at least two of cancer, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Data were extracted for each simulation model with ≥3 arising papers, including: model type, untimed or with time steps and trends in business-as-usual (BAU) tobacco prevalence and epidemiology.

RESULTS

Of 1911 papers, 186 met the inclusion criteria, including 13 eligible simulation models. The SimSmoke model had the largest number of publications (n=46), followed by Benefits of Smoking Cessation on Outcomes (n=12) and Tobacco Policy Model (n=10). Two of 13 models only estimated deaths averted, 1 had no time steps, 5 had no future trends in BAU tobacco prevalence, 9 had no future trends in BAU disease epidemiology and 7 had no time lags from quitting tobacco to reversal of health harm.

CONCLUSIONS

Considerable heterogeneity exists in simulation models, making outputs substantively non-comparable between models. Ranking of interventions by one model may be valid. However, this may not be true if, for example, interventions that differentially affect age groups (eg, a tobacco-free generation policy vs increased cessation among adults) do not account for plausible future trends. Greater standardisation of model structures and outputs will allow comparison across models and countries, and for comparisons of the impact of tobacco control interventions with other preventive interventions.

Alcohol consumption's attributable disease burden and cost-effectiveness of targeted public health interventions: a systematic review of mathematical models

Background

Around 6% of total deaths are related to alcohol consumption worldwide. Mathematical models are important tools to estimate disease burden and to assess the cost-effectiveness of interventions to address this burden.

Methods

We carried out a systematic review on models, searching main health literature databases up to July 2017. Pairs of reviewers independently selected, extracted data and assessed the quality of the included studies. Discrepancies were resolved by consensus. We selected those models exploring: a) disease burden (main metrics being attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life years, quality-adjusted life years) or b) economic evaluations of health interventions or policies, based on models including the aforementioned outcomes. We grouped models into broad families according to their common central methodological approach.

Results

Out of 4295 reports identified, 63 met our inclusion criteria and were categorized in three main model families that were described in detail: 1) State transition -i.e Markov- models, 2) Life Table-based models and 3) Attributable fraction-based models. Most studies pertained to the latter one (n = 29, 48.3%). A few miscellaneous models could not be framed into these families.

Conclusions

Our findings can be useful for future researchers and decision makers planning to undertake alcohol-related disease burden or cost-effectiveness studies. We found several different families of models. Countries interested in adopting relevant public health measures may choose or adapt the one deemed most convenient, based on the availability of existing data at the local level, burden of work, and public health and economic outcomes of interest.

Cost-effectiveness of a high-intensity versus a low-intensity smoking cessation intervention in a dental setting: long-term follow-up

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of a high-intensity and a low-intensity smoking cessation treatment programme (HIT and LIT) using long-term follow-up effectiveness data and to validate the cost-effectiveness results based on short-term follow-up.

DESIGN AND OUTCOME MEASURES

Intervention effectiveness was estimated in a randomised controlled trial as numbers of abstinent participants after 1 and 5-8 years of follow-up. The economic evaluation was performed from a societal perspective using a Markov model by estimating future disease-related costs (in Euro (€) 2018) and health effects (in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)). Programmes were explicitly compared in an incremental analysis, and the results were presented as an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.

SETTING

The study was conducted in dental clinics in Sweden.

PARTICIPANTS

294 smokers aged 19-71 years were included in the study.

INTERVENTIONS

Behaviour therapy, coaching and pharmacological advice (HIT) was compared with one counselling session introducing a conventional self-help programme (LIT).

RESULTS

The more costly HIT led to higher number of 6-month continuous abstinent participants after 1 year and higher number of sustained abstinent participants after 5-8 years, which translates into larger societal costs avoided and health gains than LIT. The incremental cost/QALY of HIT compared with LIT amounted to €918 and €3786 using short-term and long-term effectiveness, respectively, which is considered very cost-effective in Sweden.

CONCLUSION

CEA favours the more costly HIT if decision makers are willing to spend at least €4000/QALY for tobacco cessation treatment.

Smoking Cessation: A Comparison of Two Model Structures

BACKGROUND

Most economic evaluations of smoking cessation interventions have used cohort state-transition models. Discrete event simulations (DESs) have been proposed as a superior approach.

OBJECTIVE

We developed a state-transition model and a DES using the discretely integrated condition event (DICE) framework and compared the cost-effectiveness results. We performed scenario analysis using the DES to explore the impact of alternative assumptions.

METHODS

The models estimated the costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for the intervention and comparator from the perspective of the UK National Health Service and Personal Social Services over a lifetime horizon. The models considered five comorbidities: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease, stroke and lung cancer. The state-transition model used prevalence data, and the DES used incidence. The costs and utility inputs were the same between two models and consistent with those used in previous analyses for the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence.

RESULTS

In the state-transition model, the intervention produced an additional 0.16 QALYs at a cost of £540, leading to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £3438. The comparable DES scenario produced an ICER of £5577. The ICER for the DES increased to £18,354 when long-term relapse was included.

CONCLUSIONS

The model structures themselves did not influence smoking cessation cost-effectiveness results, but long-term assumptions did. When there is variation in long-term predictions between interventions, economic models need a structure that can reflect this.

Estimates of costs for modelling return on investment from smoking cessation interventions

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Modelling return on investment (ROI) from smoking cessation interventions requires estimates of their costs and benefits. This paper describes a standardized method developed to source both economic costs of tobacco smoking and costs of implementing cessation interventions for a Europe-wide ROI model [European study on Quantifying Utility of Investment in Protection from Tobacco model (EQUIPTMOD)].

DESIGN

Focused search of administrative and published data. A standardized checklist was developed in order to ensure consistency in methods of data collection.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Adult population (15+ years) in Hungary, Netherlands, Germany, Spain and England. For passive smoking-related costs, child population (0-15 years) was also included.

MEASUREMENTS

Costs of treating smoking-attributable diseases; productivity losses due to smoking-attributable absenteeism; and costs of implementing smoking cessation interventions.

FINDINGS

Annual costs (per case) of treating smoking attributable lung cancer were between €5074 (Hungary) and €52 106 (Germany); coronary heart disease between €1521 (Spain) and €3955 (Netherlands); chronic obstructive pulmonary disease between €1280 (England) and €4199 (Spain); stroke between €1829 (Hungary) and €14 880 (Netherlands). Costs (per recipient) of smoking cessation medications were estimated to be: for standard duration of varenicline between €225 (England) and €465 (Hungary); for bupropion between €25 (Hungary) and €220 (Germany). Costs (per recipient) of providing behavioural support were also wide-ranging: one-to-one behavioural support between €34 (Hungary) and €474 (Netherlands); and group-based behavioural support between €12 (Hungary) and €257 (Germany). The costs (per recipient) of delivering brief physician advice were: €24 (England); €9 (Germany); €4 (Hungary); €33 (Netherlands); and €27 (Spain).

CONCLUSIONS

Costs of treating smoking-attributable diseases as well as the costs of implementing smoking cessation interventions vary substantially across Hungary, Netherlands, Germany, Spain and England. Estimates for the costs of these diseases and interventions can contribute to return on investment estimates in support of national or regional policy decisions.

Estimates of effectiveness and reach for 'return on investment' modelling of smoking cessation interventions using data from England

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Estimating 'return on investment' (ROI) from smoking cessation interventions requires reach and effectiveness parameters for interventions for use in economic models such as the EQUIPT ROI tool (http://roi.equipt.eu). This paper describes the derivation of these parameter estimates for England that can be adapted to create ROI models for use by other countries.

METHODS

Estimates were derived for interventions in terms of their reach and effectiveness in: (1) promoting quit attempts and (2) improving the success of quit attempts (abstinence for at least 12 months). The sources were systematic reviews of efficacy supplemented by individual effectiveness evaluations and national surveys.

FINDINGS

Quit attempt rates were estimated to be increased by the following percentages (with reach in parentheses): 20% by tax increases raising the cost of smoking 5% above the cost of living index (100%); 10% by enforced comprehensive indoor public smoking bans (100%); 3% by mass media campaigns achieving 400 gross rating points (100%); 40% by brief opportunistic physician advice (21%); and 110% by use of a licensed nicotine product to reduce cigarette consumption (12%). Quit success rates were estimated to be increased by the following ratios: 60% by single-form nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) (5%); 114% by NRT patch plus a faster-acting NRT (2%);124% by prescribed varenicline (5%); 60% by bupropion (1%); 100% by nortriptyline (0%), 10) 298% by cytisine (0%); 40% by individual face-to-face behavioural support (2%); 37% by telephone support (0.5%); 88% by group behavioural support (1%); 63% by text messaging (0.5%); and 19% by printed self-help materials (1%). There was insufficient evidence to obtain reliable, country-specific estimates for interventions such as websites, smartphone applications and e-cigarettes.

CONCLUSIONS

Tax increases, indoor smoking bans, brief opportunistic physician advice and use of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) for smoking reduction can all increase population quit attempt rates. Quit success rates can be increased by provision of NRT, varenicline, bupropion, nortriptyline, cytisine and behavioural support delivered through a variety of modalities. Parameter estimates for the effectiveness and reach of these interventions can contribute to return on investment estimates in support of national or regional policy decisions.

German EstSmoke: estimating adult smoking-related costs and consequences of smoking cessation for Germany

AIMS

We compared predicted life-time health-care costs for current, never and ex-smokers in Germany under the current set of tobacco control polices. We compared these economic consequences of the current situation with an alternative in which Germany were to implement more comprehensive tobacco control policies consistent with the World Health Organization (WHO) Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC) guidelines.

DESIGN

German EstSmoke, an adapted version of the UK EstSmoke simulation model, applies the Markov modelling approach. Transition probabilities for (re-)currence of smoking-related diseases were calculated from large German disease-specific registries and the German Health Update (GEDA 2010). Estimations of both health-care costs and effect sizes of smoking cessation policies were taken from recent German studies and discounted at 3.5%/year.

SETTING

Germany.

PARTICIPANTS

German population of prevalent current, never and ex-smokers in 2009.

MEASUREMENT

Life-time cost and outcomes in current, never and ex-smokers.

FINDINGS

If tobacco control policies are not strengthened, the German smoking population will incur €41.56 billion life-time excess costs compared with never smokers. Implementing tobacco control policies consistent with WHO FCTC guidelines would reduce the difference of life-time costs between current smokers and ex-smokers by at least €1.7 billion.

CONCLUSIONS

Modelling suggests that the life-time healthcare costs of people in Germany who smoke are substantially greater than those of people who have never smoked. However, more comprehensive tobacco control policies could reduce health-care expenditures for current smokers by at least 4%.

Model-based economic evaluations in smoking cessation and their transferability to new contexts: a systematic review

AIMS

To identify different types of models used in economic evaluations of smoking cessation, analyse the quality of the included models examining their attributes and ascertain their transferability to a new context.

METHODS

A systematic review of the literature on the economic evaluation of smoking cessation interventions published between 1996 and April 2015, identified via Medline, EMBASE, National Health Service (NHS) Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), Health Technology Assessment (HTA). The checklist-based quality of the included studies and transferability scores was based on the European Network of Health Economic Evaluation Databases (EURONHEED) criteria. Studies that were not in smoking cessation, not original research, not a model-based economic evaluation, that did not consider adult population and not from a high-income country were excluded.

FINDINGS

Among the 64 economic evaluations included in the review, the state-transition Markov model was the most frequently used method (n = 30/64), with quality adjusted life years (QALY) being the most frequently used outcome measure in a life-time horizon. A small number of the included studies (13 of 64) were eligible for EURONHEED transferability checklist. The overall transferability scores ranged from 0.50 to 0.97, with an average score of 0.75. The average score per section was 0.69 (range = 0.35-0.92). The relative transferability of the studies could not be established due to a limitation present in the EURONHEED method.

CONCLUSION

All existing economic evaluations in smoking cessation lack in one or more key study attributes necessary to be fully transferable to a new context.

OP11 Structural Uncertainty In Economic Modelling For Smoking Cessation

INTRODUCTION:

Guidance for developing economic models recommend that model structure is carefully considered, and assumptions varied in sensitivity analysis (1). Models in smoking cessation have typically used cohort-level approaches, although recently discrete event simulations (DESs) have been developed (2). DESs allow additional flexibility such as modelling changing risk over time, and recurrent events. Our aim was to explore the impact of varying model structure and assumptions on the cost-effectiveness of smoking cessation programs.

METHODS:

We built a cohort state-transition model which related mortality to smoking status and considered the prevalence (based on smoking status) of five comorbidities associated with smoking, each of which has an associated cost and quality of life decrement. We additionally built a patient-level DES, using the Discretely Integrated Condition Event framework (3). The DES used the same data as the cohort model, except considering incidence for comorbidities rather than prevalence. We considered a population of smokers aged 16 years old and an intervention costing GBP827 on which 27 percent of people quit, compared with no treatment. We produced results using the two models for comparable scenarios, and ran additional scenarios considering different assumptions.

RESULTS:

In the cohort model, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for intervention versus no treatment was GBP4,000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY). In the DES, modelling mortality linked to smoker status produced an ICER of GBP1,000/QALY and modelling mortality linked to comorbidities produced an ICER of GBP6,000/QALY. In the DES with mortality linked to comorbidities, varying the relative risk of comorbidities with time since quitting gave an ICER of GBP3,000/QALY. Including relapse increased the ICER to GBP21,000/QALY.

CONCLUSIONS:

The ICER for the smoking cessation program changes when model assumptions are varied, although the choice of DES versus cohort model appears to make a relatively small difference. Inclusion of relapse substantially changes the ICER, demonstrating the importance of long-term effects in economic models.