A scrutiny of the evidence for pressure-induced state shifts in estuarine and nearshore ecosystems

Regime shifts occur disproportionately faster in larger ecosystems

Regime shifts can abruptly affect hydrological, climatic and terrestrial systems, leading to degraded ecosystems and impoverished societies. While the frequency of regime shifts is predicted to increase, the fundamental relationships between the spatial-temporal scales of shifts and their underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. Here we analyse empirical data from terrestrial (n = 4), marine (n = 25) and freshwater (n = 13) environments and show positive sub-linear empirical relationships between the size and shift duration of systems. Each additional unit area of an ecosystem provides an increasingly smaller unit of time taken for that system to collapse, meaning that large systems tend to shift more slowly than small systems but disproportionately faster. We substantiate these findings with five computational models that reveal the importance of system structure in controlling shift duration. The findings imply that shifts in Earth ecosystems occur over 'human' timescales of years and decades, meaning the collapse of large vulnerable ecosystems, such as the Amazon rainforest and Caribbean coral reefs, may take only a few decades once triggered.

Modeling Top-Down and Bottom-Up Drivers of a Regime Shift in Invasive Aquatic Plant Stable States

The evidence for alternate stable states characterized by dominance of either floating or submerged plant dominance is well established. Inspired by an existing model and controlled experiments, we conceptually describe a dynamic that we have observed in the field using a simple model, the aim of which was to investigate key interactions of the shift between invasive floating and invasive submerged plant dominance, driven by the rapid decomposition of floating plants as a consequence of herbivory by biological control agents. This study showed that the rate of switch between floating and submerged invasive plant dominance, and the point in time at which the switch occurs, is dependent on the nutrient status of the water and the density of biological control agents on floating plant populations. Therefore, top-down invasive plant biological control efforts using natural enemies can affect systems on a wider scale than the intended agent - plant level, and can be significantly altered by bottom-up changes to the system, i.e., nutrient loading. The implications of this are essential for understanding the multiple roles invasive plants and their control have upon ecosystem dynamics. The results emphasize the importance of multi-trophic considerations for future invasive plant management and offer evidence for new pathways of invasion. The model outputs support the conclusion that, after the shift and in the absence of effective intervention, a submerged invasive stable state will persist.

Quantifying long-term plant community dynamics with movement models: implications for ecological resilience

Quantification of rates and patterns of community dynamics is central for understanding the organization and function of ecosystems. These insights may support a greater empirical understanding of ecological resilience, and the application of resilience concepts toward ecosystem management. Distinct types of dynamics in natural communities can be used to interpret and apply resilience concepts, but quantitative methods that can systematically distinguish among them are needed. We develop a quantitative method to analyze long-term records of plant community dynamics using principles of movement ecology. We analyzed dissimilarity of species composition through time with linear and nonlinear statistical models to assign community change to four classes of movement trajectories. Compositional change in each sampled plot through time was classified into four classes, stability, abrupt nonlinear change, transient reversible change, and gradual linear drift, each representing a different aspect of ecological resilience. These competing models were evaluated based on estimated coefficients, goodness of fit, and parsimony. We tested our method's accuracy and robustness through simulations, or the ability to distinguish among trajectories and classify them correctly. We simulated 16,000 trajectories of four types, of which 94-100% were correctly classified. Next, we analyzed 13 long-term vegetation records from North American grasslands (annual grasslands with warm-season and cool-season communities, shortgrass, mixedgrass, and tallgrass prairies, and sagebrush steppe), and a record of primary succession at Mt. St. Helens volcano. Collectively, we analyzed 14,647 observations from 775 plots, between 1915 and 2012. Dynamics could be reliably assigned for 705 plots (91%), and overall statistical fit was high (goodness of fit, 0.77 ± 0.15 SD). Among the perennial grasslands, stability was most common (44% of all plots), followed by gradual linear (22%), abrupt nonlinear (17%), and reversible (6%) change. Among annual grasslands, abrupt nonlinear shifts (33%) were more common in the warm-season community than in the cool-season (20%). As expected, abrupt nonlinear change was common during primary succession (51%) while reversible change was rare (3%). Generally, reversible dynamics often required 2-3 decades. Analysis of long-term community change, or trajectories, with principles of movement ecology provides a quantitative basis to compare and interpret ecological resilience within and among ecosystems.

Diet and trophic ecology of the tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier) from South African waters

Knowledge of the diet and trophic ecology of apex predators is key for the implementation of effective ecosystem as well as species-based management initiatives. Using a combination of stomach content data and stable isotope analysis (δ15N and δ13C) the current study provides information on size-based and sex-specific variations in diet, trophic position (TP) and foraging habitat of tiger sharks (Galeocerdo cuvier) caught in the KwaZulu-Natal Sharks Board bather protection program. This study presents the longest time-series and most detailed analysis of stomach content data for G. cuvier worldwide. Prey identified from 628 non-empty stomachs revealed a size-based shift in diet. Reptiles, birds, mysticetes, and large shark species increased in dietary importance with G. cuvier size, concomitant with a decrease in smaller prey such as batoids and teleosts. Seasonal and decadal shifts in diet driven primarily by changes in the importance of elasmobranchs and mammal (cetacean) prey were recorded for medium sized (150-220 cm) G. cuvier. Both stomach content and stable isotope analysis indicated that G. cuvier is a generalist feeder at the population level. Size-based δ13C profiles indicated a movement to offshore foraging habitats by larger G. cuvier. Calculated TP varied by method ranging from 4.0 to 5.0 (TPSCA for stomach contents) and from 3.6 to 4.5 (TPscaled and TPadditive for δ15N). Large (> 220 cm) G. cuvier did not feed at discrete trophic levels, but rather throughout the food web. These data provide key information on the ecological role of G. cuvier to improve the accuracy of regional food web modelling. This will enable a better understanding of the ecological impacts related to changes in the abundance of this predator.

Evidence of a Shift in the Littoral Fish Community of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

Many estuarine and freshwater ecosystems worldwide have undergone substantial changes due to multiple anthropogenic stressors. Over the past two decades, the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) in California, USA, saw a severe decline in pelagic fishes, a shift in zooplankton community composition, and a rapid expansion of invasive aquatic vegetation. To evaluate whether major changes have also occurred in the littoral fish community, we analyzed a beach seine survey dataset collected from 1995 to 2015 from 26 sites within the Delta. We examined changes in the Delta fish community at three different ecological scales (species, community, and biomass), using clustering analyses, trend tests, and change-point analyses. We found that the annual catch per effort for many introduced species and some native species have increased since 1995, while few experienced a decline. We also observed a steady pattern of change over time in annual fish community composition, driven primarily by a steady increase in non-native Centrarchid species. Lastly, we found that littoral fish biomass has essentially doubled over the 21-year study period, with Mississippi Silverside Menidia audens and fishes in the Centrarchidae family driving most of this increase. The changes in the catch per effort, fish community composition, and biomass per volume indicate that a shift has occurred in the Delta littoral fish community and that the same factors affecting the Delta's pelagic food web may have been a key driver of change.

Critical assessment and ramifications of a purported marine trophic cascade

When identifying potential trophic cascades, it is important to clearly establish the trophic linkages between predators and prey with respect to temporal abundance, demographics, distribution, and diet. In the northwest Atlantic Ocean, the depletion of large coastal sharks was thought to trigger a trophic cascade whereby predation release resulted in increased cownose ray abundance, which then caused increased predation on and subsequent collapse of commercial bivalve stocks. These claims were used to justify the development of a predator-control fishery for cownose rays, the “Save the Bay, Eat a Ray” fishery, to reduce predation on commercial bivalves. A reexamination of data suggests declines in large coastal sharks did not coincide with purported rapid increases in cownose ray abundance. Likewise, the increase in cownose ray abundance did not coincide with declines in commercial bivalves. The lack of temporal correlations coupled with published diet data suggest the purported trophic cascade is lacking the empirical linkages required of a trophic cascade. Furthermore, the life history parameters of cownose rays suggest they have low reproductive potential and their populations are incapable of rapid increases. Hypothesized trophic cascades should be closely scrutinized as spurious conclusions may negatively influence conservation and management decisions.

Transdisciplinary synthesis for ecosystem science, policy and management: The Australian experience

Mitigating the environmental effects of global population growth, climatic change and increasing socio-ecological complexity is a daunting challenge. To tackle this requires synthesis: the integration of disparate information to generate novel insights from heterogeneous, complex situations where there are diverse perspectives. Since 1995, a structured approach to inter-, multi- and trans-disciplinary(1) collaboration around big science questions has been supported through synthesis centres around the world. These centres are finding an expanding role due to ever-accumulating data and the need for more and better opportunities to develop transdisciplinary and holistic approaches to solve real-world problems. The Australian Centre for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (ACEAS <http://www.aceas.org.au>) has been the pioneering ecosystem science synthesis centre in the Southern Hemisphere. Such centres provide analysis and synthesis opportunities for time-pressed scientists, policy-makers and managers. They provide the scientific and organisational environs for virtual and face-to-face engagement, impetus for integration, data and methodological support, and innovative ways to deliver synthesis products. We detail the contribution, role and value of synthesis using ACEAS to exemplify the capacity for synthesis centres to facilitate trans-organisational, transdisciplinary synthesis. We compare ACEAS to other international synthesis centres, and describe how it facilitated project teams and its objective of linking natural resource science to policy to management. Scientists and managers were brought together to actively collaborate in multi-institutional, cross-sectoral and transdisciplinary research on contemporary ecological problems. The teams analysed, integrated and synthesised existing data to co-develop solution-oriented publications and management recommendations that might otherwise not have been produced. We identify key outcomes of some ACEAS working groups which used synthesis to tackle important ecosystem challenges. We also examine the barriers and enablers to synthesis, so that risks can be minimised and successful outcomes maximised. We argue that synthesis centres have a crucial role in developing, communicating and using synthetic transdisciplinary research.

Regime shifts, thresholds and multiple stable states in freshwater ecosystems; a critical appraisal of the evidence

The concepts of ecosystem regime shifts, thresholds and alternative or multiple stable states are used extensively in the ecological and environmental management literature. When applied to aquatic ecosystems, these terms are used inconsistently reflecting differing levels of supporting evidence among ecosystem types. Although many aquatic ecosystems around the world have become degraded, the magnitude and causes of changes, relative to the range of historical variability, are poorly known. A working group supported by the Australian Centre for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (ACEAS) reviewed 135 papers on freshwater ecosystems to assess the evidence for pressure-induced non-linear changes in freshwater ecosystems; these papers used terms indicating sudden and non-linear change in their titles and key words, and so was a positively biased sample. We scrutinized papers for study context and methods, ecosystem characteristics and focus, types of pressures and ecological responses considered, and the type of change reported (i.e., gradual, non-linear, hysteretic or irreversible change). There was little empirical evidence for regime shifts and changes between multiple or alternative stable states in these studies although some shifts between turbid phytoplankton-dominated states and clear-water, macrophyte-dominated states were reported in shallow lakes in temperate climates. We found limited understanding of the subtleties of the relevant theoretical concepts and encountered few mechanistic studies that investigated or identified cause-and-effect relationships between ecological responses and nominal pressures. Our results mirror those of reviews for estuarine, nearshore and marine aquatic ecosystems, demonstrating that although the concepts of regime shifts and alternative stable states have become prominent in the scientific and management literature, their empirical underpinning is weak outside of a specific environmental setting. The application of these concepts in future research and management applications should include evidence on the mechanistic links between pressures and consequent ecological change. Explicit consideration should also be given to whether observed temporal dynamics represent variation along a continuum rather than categorically different states.