Bayesian Prediction of Multivariate Ecology from Phenotypic Data Yields New Insights into the Diets of Extant and Extinct Taxa

AbstractMorphology often reflects ecology, enabling the prediction of ecological roles for taxa that lack direct observations, such as fossils. In comparative analyses, ecological traits, like diet, are often treated as categorical, which may aid prediction and simplify analyses but ignores the multivariate nature of ecological niches. Furthermore, methods for quantifying and predicting multivariate ecology remain rare. Here, we ranked the relative importance of 13 food items for a sample of 88 extant carnivoran mammals and then used Bayesian multilevel modeling to assess whether those rankings could be predicted from dental morphology and body size. Traditional diet categories fail to capture the true multivariate nature of carnivoran diets, but Bayesian regression models derived from living taxa have good predictive accuracy for importance ranks. Using our models to predict the importance of individual food items, the multivariate dietary niche, and the nearest extant analogs for a set of data-deficient extant and extinct carnivoran species confirms long-standing ideas for some taxa but yields new insights into the fundamental dietary niches of others. Our approach provides a promising alternative to traditional dietary classifications. Importantly, this approach need not be limited to diet but serves as a general framework for predicting multivariate ecology from phenotypic traits.

Dietary preference of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) in south-eastern Kenya

The conversion of natural ecosystems due to anthropogenic activities has led to the destruction of natural habitats and to the deterioration of habitat quality. Top predators particularly respond sensitively to changes in habitat structures, including the availability of prey. The cheetah Acinonyx jubatus prefers small-medium-sized, wild ungulate prey due to the cheetah's morphological adaptations. However, the majority of the species' population is found beyond protected areas, where habitat structures, species abundances, and community composition are highly influenced by human activities. Only few studies have analyzed the diet preference of cheetahs in relation to prey availability and abundance for rangelands beyond protected areas in Eastern Africa. The study aimed to determine cheetah prey preference in the rangelands of south-eastern Kenya based on scat analyses. We compared dietary preference of cheetah with prey availability. For this purpose, we conducted standardized game counts. We analyzed 27 cheetah scat samples collected across the same study area where we also conducted game counts. We found that Grant's gazelle Gazella granti contributed the highest portion of cheetah's diet, although Thomson's gazelle Gazella thomsonii was the most abundant medium-sized ungulate prey in the study areas. We also recorded two primate species, yellow baboon Papio cynocephalus and vervet monkey Chlorocebus pygerythrus, as well as the rock hyrax Procavia capensis in the cheetah diet. These species have never been documented as cheetah prey before. Furthermore, our results document livestock as potential prey for cheetahs. These observations underline that cheetah use diverse prey in rangelands outside protected areas, and that the abundance of specific prey does not influence cheetah prey preference.

Food from faeces: Evaluating the efficacy of scat DNA metabarcoding in dietary analyses

Scat DNA metabarcoding is increasingly being used to track the feeding ecology of elusive wildlife species. This approach has greatly increased the resolution and detection success of prey items contained in scats when compared with other classical methods. However, there have been few studies that have systematically tested the applicability and reliability of this approach to study the diet of large felids species in the wild. Here we assessed the effectiveness of this approach in the cheetah Acinonyx jubatus. We tested how scat degradation, meal size, prey species consumed and feeding day (the day a particular prey was consumed) influenced prey DNA detection success in captive cheetahs. We demonstrated that it is possible to obtain diet information from 60-day old scats using genetic approaches, but the efficiency decreased over time. Probability of species-identification was highest for food items consumed one day prior to scat collection and the probability of being able to identify the species consumed increased with the proportion of the prey consumed. Detection success varied among prey species but not by individual cheetah. Identification of prey species using DNA detection methods from a single consumption event worked for samples collected between 8 and 72 hours post-feeding. Our approach confirms the utility of genetic approaches to identify prey species in scats and highlight the need to account for the systematic bias in results to control for possible scat degradation, feeding day, meal size and prey species consumed especially in the wild-collected scats.