HINT: a novel prognostic model for patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

Alpha-fetoprotein and APRI as predictive markers for patients with Type C hepatitis B-related acute-on-chronic liver failure: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Type C hepatitis B-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF), which is based on decompensated cirrhosis, has different laboratory tests, precipitating events, organ failure and clinical outcomes. The predictors of prognosis for type C HBV-ACLF patients are different from those for other subgroups. This study aimed to construct a novel, short-term prognostic score that applied serological indicators of hepatic regeneration and noninvasive assessment of liver fibrosis to predict outcomes in patients with type C HBV-ACLF.

METHOD

Patients with type C HBV-ACLF were observed for 90 days. Demographic information, clinical examination, and laboratory test results of the enrolled patients were collected. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were performed to identify independent prognostic factors and develop a novel prognostic scoring system. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to analyse the performance of the model.

RESULTS

A total of 224 patients with type C HBV-ACLF were finally included. The overall survival rate within 90 days was 47.77%. Age, total bilirubin (TBil), international normalized ratio (INR), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), white blood cell (WBC), serum sodium (Na), and aspartate aminotransferase/platelet ratio index (APRI) were found to be independent prognostic factors. According to the results of the logistic regression analysis, a new prognostic model (named the A3Twin score) was established. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was 0.851 [95% CI (0.801-0.901)], the sensitivity was 78.8%, and the specificity was 71.8%, which were significantly higher than those of the MELD, IMELD, MELD-Na, TACIA and COSSH-ACLF II scores (all P < 0.001). Patients with lower A3Twin scores (<-9.07) survived longer.

CONCLUSIONS

A new prognostic scoring system for patients with type C HBV-ACLF based on seven routine indices was established in our study and can accurately predict short-term mortality and might be used to guide clinical management.

The value of dynamic changes in FT3 level for predicting 90-day prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients

OBJECTIVE

To explore the effect of dynamic changes in free triiodothyronine (FT3) level for predicting the 90 day prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF).

METHODS

The clinical data of 122 hospitalised patients with HBV-ACLF between September 2018 and January 2020 were collected and divided into a survival group (77 cases) and a death group (45 cases) according to the 90 day prognosis. We statistically analysed the characteristics of FT3 changes in the two groups of patients. Binary logistic regression one-way analysis was used to assess the degree of influence of each factor. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve and receiver operating characteristic curve were used to evaluate the effect of a single change in FT3 level difference (single △FT3) and the FT3 level change range (△FT3 range) in predicting the 90-day prognosis of patients.

RESULTS

There were only three types of changes in FT3 levels, which included 19 (15.6%) cases of continuous normal type, 35 (28.7%) cases of continuous decrease type and 68 (55.7%) cases of U-shaped change type. The difference in survival curves between the three types of patients was statistically significant (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The dynamic change type of FT3 is related to the disease severity and 90-day prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF. The single FT3 value and FT3 range could be used as a predictive factor for the 90-day prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF. These results have a degree of research value and are worth further exploration in the future.

ALTA: a simple nutritional prognostic score for patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

Background

Malnutrition, despite being a common complication, is often neglected in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF). The objective of this study was to develop a simplified nutritional prognostic score to accurately predict mortality in HBV-ACLF patients.

Methods

In this multicenter retrospective study, clinical data from 530 HBV-ACLF patients were used to create a new prognostic score, which was then validated in two external cohorts (n = 229 and 248).

Results

Four independent factors were significantly associated with 28-day mortality in HBV-ACLF patients, forming a novel prognostic score (ALTA score = 0.187 × age-0.849 × lymphocyte count-2.033 × total cholesterol-0.148 × albumin-0.971). Notably, the AUROC of ALTA score for 28/90-day mortality (0.950/0.967) were significantly higher than those of three other ACLF prognostic scores (COSSH-ACLF II, 0.864/0.734; MELD, 0.525/0.488; MELD-Na, 0.546/0.517; all P < 0.001), and three known nutritional scores (CONUT, 0.739/0.861; OPNI, 0.279/0.157; NRS-2002, 0.322/0.286; all P < 0.001). The prediction error rates of ALTA score for 28-day mortality were significantly lower than COSSH-ACLF II (7.3%), MELD (14.4%), MELD-Na (12.7%), CONUT (9.0%), OPNI (30.6%), and NRS2002 (34.1%) scores. Further classifying ALTA score into two strata, the hazard ratios of mortality at 28/90 days were notably increased in the high-risk groups compared to the low-risk group (15.959 and 5.740). These results were then validated in two external cohorts.

Conclusion

ALTA, as a simplified nutritional prognostic score for HBV-ACLF, demonstrates superiority over the COSSH-ACLF II and other scores in predicting short-term mortality among HBV-ACLF patients. Therefore, it may be used to guide clinical management, particularly in primary care settings.

Weighted thyroid-stimulating hormone disturbance in prognosis of hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

AIM

To weight the prognostic value of thyroid hormones in catastrophic acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF).

METHODS

A retrospective cohort (n = 635) and two prospective cohorts (n = 353, and 198) were enrolled in this study. The performance of a novel developed prognostic score was assessed from aspects of reliability, discrimination, and clinical net benefit.

RESULTS

Thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) was identified to have the most potential as a prognostic predictor for hepatitis B virus-related ACLF among thyroid hormones. The novel score (modified chronic liver failure-organ failure score [mCLIF-OFs]) was developed with weighted TSH and other scored organs in the CLIF-OFs using the retrospective cohort (n = 635). The predicted risk and observed probabilities of death were comparable across the deciles of mCLIF-OFs (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2  = 4.28, p = 0.83; Brier scaled = 11.9). The C-index of mCLIF-OFs (0.885 [0.883-0.887]) for 30-day mortality was significantly higher than that of the CLIF-OFs, chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment score (CLIF-SOFAs), CLIF-C ACLFs, Model of End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), and Child-Pugh (all p < 0.001). The absolute improvements of prediction error rates of the mCLIF-OFs compared to the above five scores were from 19.0% to 61.1%. After the analysis of probability density function, the mCLIF-OFs showed the least overlapping coefficients (27.9%) among the above prognostic scores. Additionally, the mCLIF-OFs showed greater net benefit than the above five prognostic scores over a wide range of risk threshold of death. Similar results were validated in two prospective ACLF cohorts with HBV and non-HBV etiologies.

CONCLUSION

Weighted TSH portended the outcome of ACLF patients, which could be treated as a "damaged organ" of the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid axis. The novel mCLIF-OFs is a reliable prognostic score with better discrimination power and clinical net benefit than CLIF-OFs, CLIF-SOFAs, CLIF-C ACLFs, MELD, and Child-Pugh.

Scoring models and test indexes for diagnosis and prognosis of hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

Hepatitis B virus-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is a common type of liver failure, which can occur in the context of chronic hepatitis B or cirrhosis compensatory period or decompensated period. HBV-ACLF progresses rapidly, is often complicated with multiple organ failure syndrome involving the liver, brain, heart, kidney, etc., and is associated with an extremely high short-term mortality rate. The American College of Gastroenterology (ACG) defines HBV-ACLF as a potentially reversible disease, and early diagnosis and standardized treatment will affect its prognosis. In recent years, the clinical application of some new scoring models and biomarkers has effectively improved the diagnosis and prognosis of HBV-ACLF. This article reviews some scoring models and test indexes recently used in the clinical treatment and explores their value in the diagnosis and prognosis of HBV-ACLF.

A novel nomogram to predict 90-day mortality in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure: a single-center retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a critical illness with high mortality. Herein, we developed and validated a new and simple prognostic nomogram to predict 90-day mortality in hepatitis B virus-related ACLF (HBV-ACLF) patients.

METHODS

This single-center retrospective study collected data from 181 HBV-ACLF patients treated between June 2018 and March 2020. The correlation between clinical data and 90-day mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF was assessed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS

Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age (p = 0.011), hepatic encephalopathy (p = 0.001), total bilirubin (p = 0.007), international normalized ratio (p = 0.006), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (p = 0.011) were independent predictors of 90-day mortality in HBV-ACLF patients. A nomogram was created to predict 90-day mortality using these risk factors. The C-index for the prognostic nomogram was calculated as 0.866, and confirmed to be 0.854 via bootstrapping verification. The area under the curve was 0.870 in the external validation cohort. The predictive value of the nomogram was similar to that of the Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B score, and exceeded the performance of other prognostic scores.

CONCLUSION

The prognostic nomogram constructed using the factors identified in multivariate regression analysis might serve as a beneficial tool to predict 90-day mortality in HBV-ACLF patients.

Prealbumin as a Predictor of Short-Term Prognosis in Patients with HBV-Related Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

Purpose

Hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is a serious medical condition with a high short-term mortality rate, making accurate prognostic assessment essential for informed clinical decision-making. In this study, we aimed to develop a simple and effective prognostic model for predicting short-term mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF.

Patients and Methods

To achieve our objective, we enrolled both a cross-sectional cohort (n = 291) and a retrospective cohort (n = 185) in this study. We collected laboratory and clinical data from these cohorts and performed univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to identify independent predictors of short-term mortality. Subsequently, we developed a novel prognostic score for HBV-ACLF, which was validated and assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to determine its performance.

Results

Our analysis revealed that the admission prealbumin (PAB) level was a robust independent predictor of 30-day mortality, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of 0.760. Moreover, we developed the HIAPP score, a prognostic-score model based on PAB. The HIAPP score was significantly lower in survivors compared to non-survivors (-2.80±0.21 vs 0.97±0.41, P < 0.001). The HIAPP score's AUROC value was 0.899, which was found to be superior to the MELD score (AUROC = 0.795) and the CLIF-C ACLF score (AUC =0.781) and comparable to the COSSH-ACLF II score (AUC =0.825) for predicting 30-day mortality. These findings were also validated in a separate cohort, further supporting the utility of the HIAPP score as a prognostic tool for HBV-ACLF patients.

Conclusion

Our study identifies the admission PAB level as a simple and valuable predictive index for 30-day mortality in HBV-ACLF patients. Furthermore, the HIAPP score, which incorporates PAB, PLT, INR, HE, and age, is an easy-to-use and pragmatic prognostic score in predicting short-term mortality.

Liver volume based prediction model for patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is a life-threatening disease with high short-term mortality. Early and accurate prognosis is significant for clinical decisions, in which liver volume (LV) imparts important information. However, LV has not been considered in current prognostic models for HBV-ACLF.

METHODS

Three hundred and twenty-three patients were recruited to the deriving cohort, while 163 were enrolled to validation cohort. The primary end-point was death within 28 days since admission. Estimated liver volume (ELV) was calculated by the formula based on healthy population. Logistic regression was used to develop a prediction model. Accuracy of models were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

RESULTS

The ratio of LV to ELV (LV/ELV%) was significantly lower in non-survivors, and LV/ELV% ≤82% indicated poor prognosis. LV/ELV%, Age, prothrombin time (PT), the grade of hepatic encephalopathy (HE), ln-transformed total bilirubin (lnTBil), and log-transformed HBV DNA (Log₁₀ HBV DNA) were identified as independent predictors to develop an LV-based model, LEAP-HBV. The mean area under the ROC (AUC) of LEAP-HBV was 0.906 (95% CI, 0.904-0.908), higher than other non-LV-based models.

CONCLUSION

Liver volume was an independent predictor, and LEAP-HBV, a prediction model based on LV, was developed for the short-term mortality in HBV-ACLF. This study was registered on ClinicalTrails (NCT03977857).

Development of a Widely Applicable and Simple Prognostic Score for Patients with Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) tends to progress rapidly with high short-term mortality. We aimed to create a widely applicable, simple prognostic (WASP) score for ACLF patients.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort of ACLF cases recruited from three centers in China were divided into training and validation sets to develop the new score. A prospective longitudinal cohort was recruited for further validation.

RESULTS

A total of 541 cases were included in the training set, and seven independent ACLF prognostic factors were screened to construct a new quantitative WASP-ACLF table. In the validation set of 671 cases, WASP-ACLF showed better predictive ability for 28-day and 90-day mortality than the currently used prognostic scores at baseline, day 3, week 1, and week 2. The predictive efficacy and clinical validity of the model improved over time. Patients were assigned to low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups by their WASP-ACLF scores. Compared with the other two groups, intermediate-risk patients had a more uncertain prognosis, with a 90-day mortality of 44.4-50.6%. Sequential assessments at weeks 1 and 2 found the 90-day mortality of intermediate-risk groups was <20% for patients with a ≥2 point decrease in WASP-ACLF and was up to 56% for patients with a ≥2 points increase. Similar results were observed in prospective data.

CONCLUSIONS

The new ACLF prognostic score was simple, widely applicable, and had good predictive efficacy. Continuous assessments and trend of change in WASP-ACLF need to be considered, especially for intermediate-risk patients.

Decreased vitamin D-binding protein level portends poor outcome in acute-on-chronic liver failure caused by hepatitis B virus

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a catastrophic illness. Few studies investigated the prognostic value of vitamin D-binding protein (VDBP) for hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related ACLF (HBV-ACLF) resulted in conflicting results.

METHODS

Two prospective HBV-ACLF cohorts (n=287 and n=119) were enrolled to assess and validate the prognostic performance of VDBP.

RESULTS

VDBP levels in the non-survivors were significantly lower than in the survivors (P<0.001). Multivariate Cox regression demonstrated that VDBP was an independent prognostic factor for HBV-ACLF. The VDBP level at admission gradually decreased as the number of failed organs increased (P<0.001), and it was closely related to coagulation failure. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) of the Child-Pugh-VDBP and chronic liver failuresequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA)-VDBP scores were significantly higher than those of Child-Pugh (P<0.001) and CLIF-SOFA (P=0.0013). The AUCs of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD)-VDBP were significantly higher than those of MELD (P= 0.0384) only in the case of cirrhotic HBV-ACLF patients. Similar results were validated using an external multicenter HBV-ACLF cohort. By longitudinal observation, the VDBP levels gradually increased in survivors (P=0.026) and gradually decreased in non-survivors (P<0.001). Additionally, the VDBP levels were found to be significantly decreased in the deterioration group (P=0.012) and tended to be decreased in the fluctuation group (P=0.055). In contrast, they showed a significant increase in the improvement group (P=0.036).

CONCLUSION

The VDBP was a promising prognostic biomarker for HBV-ACLF. Sequential measurement of circulating VDBP shows value for the monitoring of ACLF progression.

1,5-Anhydroglucitol Predicts Mortality in Patients with HBV-Related Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

1,5-Anhydroglucitol (1,5AG) activity has been reported in chronic liver disease. Hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) patients have a high mortality. We aimed to discover the relationship between serum 1,5AG and the prognosis of HBV-ACLF.

METHODS

Serum 1,5AG levels were determined in 333 patients with HBV-ACLF, 300 without diabetes were allocated to derivation (n=206) and validation cohorts (n=94), and 33 were recruited to evaluate 1,5AG in those with diabetes. Forty patients with chronic hepatitis B, 40 with liver cirrhosis, and 40 healthy people were controls in the validation cohort.

RESULTS

In the derivation and validation cohorts, serum 1,5AG levels were significantly lower in nonsurvivors than in survivors. The AUC of 1,5AG for 28-day mortality was 0.811. In patients with diabetes, serum 1,5AG levels were also significantly lower in nonsurvivors than in survivors. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, serum 1,5AG levels were independently associated with 28-day mortality. A novel predictive model (ACTIG) based on 1,5AG, age, TB, cholesterol, and INR was derived to predict mortality. In ACTIG, the AUC for 28-day mortality was 0.914, which was superior to some prognostic score models. ACTIG was also comparable to those prognostic score models in predicting 6-month mortality. In mice with D-galactosamine/lipopolysaccharide-induced liver failure, 1,5AG levels were significantly reduced in serum and significantly increased in urine and liver tissue.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum 1,5AG levels are a promising predictor of short-term mortality in HBV-ACLF patients. The 1,5AG distribution changed in mice with D-galactosamine/ lipopolysaccharide-induced liver failure.

The impact of serum thyroid-stimulation hormone levels on the outcome of hepatitis B virus related acute-on-chronic liver failure: an observational study

Background

Thyroid dysfunction has been reported in severe liver diseases. The aim of this study was to analyze the impact of serum thyroid-stimulation hormone (TSH) levels on the prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF).

Methods

This retrospective cohort study included 1,862 patients with HBV-related ACLF. Risk factors associated with 30-day and 90-day survival, hazard ratios (HRs), and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for TSH were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression. The Area Under the ROC curve (AUROC) analysis was carried out, and the cut-off values were calculated. After grouping by the cut-off value, survival was compared between the groups using the log-rank test. This study data is from the “Survival Cohort Study (SCS)”, which has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03992898).

Results

Multivariate analysis indicated that an elevated TSH level was a highly significant predictor for 30-day survival (HR = 0.743, 95% CI: 0.629–0.878, P < 0.001) and 90-day survival (HR = 0.807, 95% CI: 0.717–0.909, P < 0.001). The AUROC of TSH level for 30-day and 90-day mortality were 0.655 and 0.620, respectively, with the same best cut-off values of 0.261 µIU/mL. Log-rank test showed that the group with higher TSH level had higher 30-day (78.5%, 95% CI: 76.1%-80.9% vs. 56.9%, 95% CI: 53.4%-60.4%; P < 0.001) and 90-day survival rate (61.5%, 95% CI: 58.6%-64.4% vs. 42.8%, 95% CI: 39.3%-46.3%; P < 0.001). Similar findings were observed in subgroups analysis. After adjusting for age and other risk factors, the higher level of TSH remained associated with 30-day survival (HR = 0.602, 95% CI: 0.502–0.721, P < 0.001) and 90-day survival (HR = 0.704, 95% CI, 0.609–0.814, P < 0.001).

Conclusions

Serum TSH level significantly correlate with HBV-related ACLF patients’ survival and may be of value for predicting 30-day and 90-day survival of patients with HBV-related ACLF.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-022-02406-7.

Targeting Thyroid Hormone/Thyroid Hormone Receptor Axis: An Attractive Therapy Strategy in Liver Diseases

Thyroid hormone/thyroid hormone receptor (TH/TR) axis is characterized by TH with the assistance of plasma membrane transporters to combine with TR and mediate biological activities. Growing evidence suggests that TH/TR participates in plenty of hepatic metabolism. Thus, this review focuses on the role of the TH/TR axis in the liver diseases. To be specific, the TH/TR axis may improve metabolic-associated fatty liver disease, hepatitis, liver fibrosis, and liver injury while exacerbating the progression of acute liver failure and alcoholic liver disease. Also, the TH/TR axis has paradoxical roles in hepatocellular carcinoma. The TH/TR axis may be a prospecting target to cure hepatic diseases.

Development of a FT3-related prognostic model for patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

This study aimed to develop a prediction model for the prognosis of patients with Hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF). 122 patients were divided into survival group and death group according to 90-day prognosis after diagnosis. Risk factors affecting the prognosis were identified by the logistic regression analysis and then were used to establish an FT3-related prediction model. Age, proportion of liver cirrhosis, AST, TBil, INR, Cr, Na, WBC, and several scores (CTP, MELD, MELD-Na, CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-OF, and AARC scores) of the death group were significantly higher than that of the survival group on admission. FT3 and Na were protective factors for the prognosis of patients; Age, TBil, INR, HE grading, and Cr were risk factors. FT3 levels were (2.79 ± 0.34) (95%CI 2.73-2.87) pmol/L for the survival group and (2.20 ± 0.20) (95%CI 2.11-2.29) pmol/L for the death group. The level of FT3 in survival group was significantly higher than that of the death group in patients regardless of gender, initial liver disease, and liver failure stages (P < 0.05). The ROC curve for FT3-related prognostic model score was 0.923 (95%CI 0.809-0.947), significantly higher than that of the CTP, MELD, MELD-Na, CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C OF, and AARC scores (P < 0.001). The FT3-related prediction model has good predictive value for 90-day prognosis.

aMAP Score as a Predictor for Long-Term Outcomes in Patients with HBV-Related Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

Background and Aim

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Critical Updates on Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection in 2021

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a global healthcare burden in the form of chronic liver disease, cirrhosis, liver failure and liver cancer. There is no definite cure for the virus and even though extensive vaccination programs have reduced the burden of liver disease in the future population, treatment options to eradicate the virus from the host are still lacking. In this review, we discuss in detail current updates on the structure and applied biology of the virus in the host, examine updates to current treatment and explore novel and state-of-the-art therapeutics in the pipeline for management of chronic HBV. Furthermore, we also specifically review clinical updates on HBV-related acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF). Current treatments for chronic HBV infection have seen important updates in the form of considerations for treating patients in the immune tolerant phase and some clarity on end points for treatment and decisions on finite therapy with nucleos(t)ide inhibitors. Ongoing cutting-edge research on HBV biology has helped us identify novel target areas in the life cycle of the virus for application of new therapeutics. Due to improvements in the area of genomics, the hope for therapeutic vaccines, vector-based treatments and focused management aimed at targeting host integration of the virus and thereby a total cure could become a reality in the near future. Newer clinical prognostic tools have improved our understanding of timing of specific treatment options for the catastrophic syndrome of ACLF secondary to reactivation of HBV. In this review, we discuss in detail pertinent updates regarding virus biology and novel therapeutic targets with special focus on the appraisal of prognostic scores and treatment options in HBV-related ACLF.

Development and validation of a new prognostic score for hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Early determination of the prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is important to guide clinical management and decrease mortality. The aim of this study was to develop a new simplified prognostic score to accurately predict outcomes in patients with HBV-ACLF.

METHODS

Prospective clinical data from 2,409 hospitalized patients with acute deterioration of HBV-related chronic liver disease were used to develop a new prognostic score that was validated in an external group.

RESULTS

A total of 954 enrolled patients with HBV-ACLF were diagnosed based on the Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B-ACLF (COSSH-ACLF) criteria. Six predictive factors were significantly related to 28-day mortality and constituted a new prognostic score (=1.649×ln(international normalized ratio)+0.457×hepatic encephalopathy score+0.425×ln(neutrophil)+0.396×ln(total bilirubin)+0.576×ln(serum urea)+0.033×age). The C-indices of the new score for 28-/90-day mortality (0.826/0.809) were significantly higher than those of 4 other scores (COSSH-ACLF, 0.793/0.784; CLIF-C ACLF, 0.792/0.770; MELD, 0.731/0.727; MELD-Na, 0.730/0.726; all p <0.05). The prediction error rates of the new score for 28-day mortality were significantly lower than those of the 4 other scores: COSSH-ACLF (15.9%), CLIF-C ACLF (16.3%), MELD (35.3%) and MELD-Na (35.6%). The probability density function evaluation and risk stratification of the new score also showed the highest predictive values for mortality. These results were then validated in an external cohort.

CONCLUSION

A new prognostic score based on 6 predictors, without an assessment of organ failure, can accurately predict short-term mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF and might be used to guide clinical management.

LAY SUMMARY

Hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is a complex syndrome that is associated with a high short-term mortality rate. We developed a simplified prognostic score for patients suffering from this condition based on a prospective multicentre cohort. This new score had better predictive ability than 4 other commonly used scores.

Low Growth Hormone Levels Predict Poor Outcome of Hepatitis B Virus-Related Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

Background and Aims: Hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) remains a serious entity with high mortality. Growth hormone (GH) is related to the liver metabolism and regeneration. The present study aimed to explore the changes and prognostic efficacy of GH on the outcome of HBV-ACLF.

Methods: A prospective cohort of 124 patients and a cross-sectional cohort of 142 subjects were enrolled. GH and insulin-like growth factor-1(IGF-1) were detected by ELISA. Thirty-day survival was collected and the association between GH and the 30-day mortality of HBV-ACLF was analyzed.

Results: The mean age of the whole prospective cohort was 46.61 ± 12.71 years, and 19 (15.3%) patients were female. The median (IQR) of GH levels in non-survivors were 1106.55 (674.25, 1922.4) pg/ml, which were significantly lower than in survivors (p < 0.001). In the cross-sectional cohort, GH level was significantly higher in liver cirrhosis - acute decompensation (LC-AD) group than liver cirrhosis (LC) group (p < 0.001) while IGF-1 decreased significantly in LC, LC-AD, ACLF groups than health control (HC) and chronic Hepatitis B (CHB) groups (p < 0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of GH for predicting 30-day mortality was 0.793. We built a new prognostic model, namely MELD-GH, which showed better predictive efficacy than Child-Pugh, MELD, CLIF-SOFA, and CLIF-C ACLF scores.

Conclusions: Low GH predicted the poor outcome of HBV-ACLF patients. GH and IGF-1 levels were differently distributed among HC, CHB, LC, LC-AD, and ACLF patients. MELD-GH had better predictive accuracy when compared to Child-Pugh, MELD, CLIF-SOFA, and CLIF-C ACLF scores.

Individual mortality risk predictive system of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure based on a random survival forest model

Background:

The basis of individualized treatment should be individualized mortality risk predictive information. The present study aimed to develop an online individual mortality risk predictive tool for acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) patients based on a random survival forest (RSF) algorithm.

Methods:

The current study retrospectively enrolled ACLF patients from the Department of Infectious Diseases of The First People's Hospital of Foshan, Shunde Hospital of Southern Medical University, and Jiangmen Central Hospital. Two hundred seventy-six consecutive ACLF patients were included in the present study as a model cohort (n = 276). Then the current study constructed a validation cohort by drawing patients from the model dataset based on the resampling method (n = 276). The RSF algorithm was used to develop an individual prognostic model for ACLF patients. The Brier score was used to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of prognostic models. The weighted mean rank estimation method was used to compare the differences between the areas under the time-dependent ROC curves (AUROCs) of prognostic models.

Results:

Multivariate Cox regression identified hepatic encephalopathy (HE), age, serum sodium level, acute kidney injury (AKI), red cell distribution width (RDW), and international normalization index (INR) as independent risk factors for ACLF patients. A simplified RSF model was developed based on these previous risk factors. The AUROCs for predicting 3-, 6-, and 12-month mortality were 0.916, 0.916, and 0.905 for the RSF model and 0.872, 0.866, and 0.848 for the Cox model in the model cohort, respectively. The Brier scores were 0.119, 0.119, and 0.128 for the RSF model and 0.138, 0.146, and 0.156 for the Cox model, respectively. The nonparametric comparison suggested that the RSF model was superior to the Cox model for predicting the prognosis of ACLF patients.

Conclusions:

The current study developed a novel online individual mortality risk predictive tool that could predict individual mortality risk predictive curves for individual patients. Additionally, the current online individual mortality risk predictive tool could further provide predicted mortality percentages and 95% confidence intervals at user-defined time points.

A dynamic prediction model for prognosis of acute-on-chronic liver failure based on the trend of clinical indicators

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a dynamic syndrome, and sequential assessments can reflect its prognosis more accurately. Our aim was to build and validate a new scoring system to predict short-term prognosis using baseline and dynamic data in ACLF. We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of patients with ACLF from three different hospitals in China. To construct the model, we analyzed a training set of 541 patients from two hospitals. The model’s performance was evaluated in a validation set of 130 patients from another center. In the training set, multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that age, WGO type, basic etiology, total bilirubin, creatinine, prothrombin activity, and hepatic encephalopathy stage were all independent prognostic factors in ACLF. We designed a dynamic trend score table based on the changing trends of these indicators. Furthermore, a logistic prediction model (DP-ACLF) was constructed by combining the sum of dynamic trend scores and baseline prognostic parameters. All prognostic scores were calculated based on the clinical data of patients at the third day, first week, and second week after admission, respectively, and were correlated with the 90-day prognosis by ROC analysis. Comparative analysis showed that the AUC value for DP-ACLF was higher than for other prognostic scores, including Child–Turcotte–Pugh, MELD, MELD-Na, CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C ACLF, and COSSH-ACLF. The new scoring model, which combined baseline characteristics and dynamic changes in clinical indicators to predict the course of ACLF, showed a better prognostic ability than current scoring systems. Prospective studies are needed to validate these results.

Testosterone and Estradiol as Novel Prognostic Indicators for HBV-Related Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

Background: HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) has a high short-term mortality and urgently needs an early warning system with simplicity and high accuracy. Previous studies show that sex hormones play potential roles in the progression of HBV-related liver diseases. Aims: To explore the effect of testosterone and estradiol on the occurrence and prognosis of HBV-ACLF. Methods: A prospective cohort of 300 chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients was enrolled among which 108 were diagnosed with HBV-ACLF at admission and 20 developed to HBV-ACLF during hospitalization. We compared the level of serum testosterone and estradiol of patients with varied ACLF background, disease severity and cirrhosis conditions and analyzed the predictive ability of short-term prognosis. A novel prognostic model involving testosterone was developed and further validated in the HBV-ACLF group. Results: The baseline estradiol level of HBV-ACLF group was significantly higher while testosterone was lower than that of non-ACLF group. The estradiol level increased while the testosterone level decreased as the number of organ failures increased. Testosterone had high accuracy in predicting the short-term mortality in HBV-ACLF (AUROC = 0.726) and estradiol did better in predicting the occurrence of ACLF during hospitalization (AUROC = 0.695). The novel prognostic model involving testosterone (TATIM model) was proved to have considerable prediction efficiency in HBV-ACLF cohort with or without cirrhosis. Conclusion: Testosterone could be utilized as short-term prognostic indicator for HBV-related ACLF and estradiol can help to predict its occurrence. TATIM model is a novel prognostic model for HBV-related ACLF with simplicity and good performance irrespectively of liver cirrhosis. Clinical Trial Registration Number: This study was based on a sub-cohort from the prospective multicenter cohort (NCT02457637).

Plasminogen as a prognostic biomarker for HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUNDHBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is hallmarked by high short-term mortality rates, calling for accurate prognostic biomarkers for initial risk stratification.METHODSThree tandem mass tag-labeled (TMT-labeled) quantitative proteomic studies were performed on 10 patients with HBV-related acute hepatic decompensation and on 20 patients with HBV-ACLF. Candidate biomarkers were preliminarily verified in a cross-sectional cohort (n = 144) and further confirmed in 2 prospective cohorts (n = 207 and n = 148).RESULTSPlasminogen, a potential prognostic biomarker for HBV-ACLF, was identified by TMT quantitative proteomics and preliminarily verified in the cross-sectional cohort. Further validation with a prospective cohort (n = 207) showed that plasminogen levels at admission were significantly lower (P < 0.001) in HBV-ACLF nonsurvivors than in survivors. The cumulative survival duration of patients with high plasminogen levels was significantly longer (P < 0.001) than that of patients with low plasminogen levels. During hospitalization, plasminogen levels significantly decreased (P = 0.008) in the deterioration group but significantly increased (P < 0.001) in the improvement group. Additionally, plasminogen levels gradually increased in survivors but gradually decreased in nonsurvivors. The P5 score, a prognostic panel incorporating plasminogen levels, hepatic encephalopathy occurrence, age, international normalized ratio (INR), and total bilirubin, was significantly superior to the Child-Pugh, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), Chronic Liver Failure Consortium ACLF (CLIF-C ACLF), Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B (COSSH), and HINT (a prognostic score based on hepatic encephalopathy occurrence, INR, neutrophil count, and thyroid-stimulating hormone) scores (all P < 0.05). The performances of the plasminogen level and P5 score were validated in a second multicenter, prospective cohort (n = 148).CONCLUSIONSPlasminogen is a promising prognostic biomarker for HBV-ACLF, and sequential plasminogen measurements could profile the clinical course of HBV-ACLF. P5 is a high-performance prognostic score for HBV-ACLF.FUNDINGThe National Key Research and Development Program (2017YFC1200204); the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81400589, 81600497); the Foundation for Innovative Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81121002); the Chinese High-Tech Research and Development Programs (2012AA020204); the National S&T Major Project (2012ZX10002004); and the Zhejiang Provincial Medicine and Health Science and Technology Project (2016147735).

Plasma perfusion combined with plasma exchange in chronic hepatitis B-related acute-on-chronic liver failure patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Artificial liver support systems (ALSS) have been shown to significantly reduce mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). However, the characteristics of patients who would benefit most from ALSS treatment are poorly understood. This study aimed to delineate the indicators for ALSS and evaluate the effectiveness of plasma perfusion combined with plasma exchange (PP + PE) in patients with hepatitis B virus-related ACLF (HBV-ACLF).

METHODS

A total of 898 patients with HBV-ACLF in a single center were enrolled retrospectively. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used in case-paired analysis. Hepatic or extra-hepatic organ failures were defined by Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (CLIF-SOFA) criteria. Complications included ascites, infection, hepatopulmonary syndrome, hepatorenal syndrome, hepatic encephalopathy and upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Numbers of organ failures or complications were used for risk stratification.

RESULTS

Among all patients, 418 patients received standard medical therapy (SMT) and 480 received PP + PE plus SMT. After one-to-one paired PSM within the two groups without risk stratification, 293 pairs were enrolled. The PP + PE group displayed significantly lower mortality risk in both 28- and 90-day observation durations. When stratified, patients with two or more organ failures or complications from the PP + PE group showed greater decrease in mortality risk. Moreover, PP + PE treatment significantly increased the resolution of organ failures and complications and ameliorated the development of new organ failures and complications.

CONCLUSIONS

PP + PE treatment significantly reversed organ failures and ameliorated the development of new organ failures and complications, thus reducing mortality risk of patients with HBV-ACLF.

Predictive value of the Chinese group on the study of severe hepatitis B-acute-on-chronic liver failure score in the short-term prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

Background:

As a large, prospective, multicenter study-based prognostic score for hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF), the Chinese group on the study of severe hepatitis B-acute-on-chronic liver failure score (COSSH-ACLFs), has been approved by some foreign scholars; however, its predictive value needs to be verified. This study investigated the predictive value of COSSH-ACLFs for short-term prognosis in Chinese patients with HBV-ACLF.

Methods:

This retrospective cohort study included 751 patients with HBV-ACLF admitted to the Fifth Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital between January 2011 and December 2014. Spearman method was used to assess the correlation of COSSH-ACLFs with classical scores. Different COX multivariate regression models were used to confirm the relationship between COSSH-ACLFs and short-term prognosis in patients with HBV-ACLF, and stratified analysis was used to further verify the stability of this relationship. We compared the predictive powers of COSSH-ACLFs and other classical scores using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and Z-test.

Results:

A total of 975 patients with HBV-ACLF were screened, and 751 were analyzed (623 male and 128 female). COSSH-ACLFs was the highest in patients with end-stage ACLF, followed by those with middle- and early-stage ACLF (H = 211.8, P < 0.001). In the fully adjusted model, COX multivariate regression analysis revealed that COSSH-ACLFs (as a continuous variable) was independently and positively correlated with mortality risk in patients with HBV-ACLF at 28 days (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.37 [1.22, 1.53], P < 0.001) and 90 days (HR: 1.43 [1.29, 1.58], P < 0.001). The same trend could be observed in the crude model and minimally adjusted model. The AUROCs of COSSH-ACLFs for 28-day and 90-day prognoses in patients with HBV-ACLF were 0.807 and 0.792, respectively, indicating a stronger predictive accuracy than those of classic models.

Conclusions:

COSSH-ACLFs, with a superior predictive accuracy compared with other classical scores, can strongly predict short-term prognosis in Chinese patients with HBV-ACLF.

Circulating proteomic panels for diagnosis and risk stratification of acute-on-chronic liver failure in patients with viral hepatitis B

Chronic HBV infection (CHB) can lead to acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) characterized by high mortality. This study aimed to reveal ACLF-related proteomic alterations, from which protein based diagnostic and prognostic scores for HBV-ACLF were developed. Methods: Ten healthy controls, 16 CHB, and 19 HBV-ACLF according to COSSH (Chinese group on the study of severe hepatitis B) criteria were enrolled to obtain the comprehensive proteomic portrait related to HBV-ACLF initiation and progression. Potential markers of HBV-ACLF were further selected based on organ specificity and functionality. An additional cohort included 77 healthy controls, 92 CHB and 71 HBV-ACLF was used to validate the proteomic signatures via targeted proteomic assays. Results: Significant losses of plasma proteins related to multiple functional clusters, including fatty acid metabolism/transport, immuno-response, complement and coagulation systems, were observed in ACLF patients. In the validation study, 28 proteins were confirmed able to separate ACLF, CHB patients. A diagnostic classifier P4 (APOC3, HRG, TF, KLKB1) was built to differentiate ACLF from CHB with high accuracy (auROC = 0.956). A prognostic model P8 (GC, HRG, HPR, SERPINA6, age, NEU, INR and total protein) was built to distinguish survivors from non-survivors in 28 and 90-days follow-up (auROC = 0.882, 0.871), and to stratify ACLF patients into risk subgroups showing significant difference in 28 and 90-days mortality (HR=7.77, 7.45, both P<0.0001). In addition, P8 score correlated with ACLF grades and numbers of extra-hepatic organ failures in ACLF patients, and was able to predict ACLF-associated coagulation and brain failure within 90 days (auROC = 0.815, 0.842). Conclusions: Proteomic signatures developed in this study reflected the deficiency of key hematological functions in HBV-ACLF patients, and show potential for HBV-ACLF diagnosis and risk prediction in complementary to current clinical based parameters.