Predictors of drug survival: A cohort study comparing anti-tumour necrosis factor agents using the Swedish inflammatory bowel disease quality register

Precision medicine: Externally validated explainable AI support tool for predicting sustainability of infliximab and vedolizumab in ulcerative colitis

OBJECTIVE

Drug sustainability (DS), a surrogate marker for drug efficacy, is important, especially when aiming for precision medicine. However, it lacks reliable prediction methods.

AIMS

To develop and externally validate a web-based artificial intelligence(AI)-derived tool for predicting DS of infliximab and vedolizumab in patients with moderate-to-severe Ulcerative Colitis (UC).

METHODS

Data from three Israeli centers included infliximab or vedolizumab patients treated for >54 weeks. Sustainability meant no corticosteroids, hospitalizations or surgeries. Machine learning techniques predicted >54-week and overall DS using baseline clinical data.

RESULTS

The model was developed using data from 246 patients from Rabin Medical Center and externally validated on 67 patients from Rambam Health Care Campus and Sheba Medical Center. No significant difference in DS was observed across the datasets. Most patients were biologic-naïve and primarily treated with vedolizumab. The model performed well, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.86, and showed good accuracy (65.5 %-76.9 %) across the test sets.

CONCLUSIONS

The study introduces a novel, AI-based tool for predicting >54-week DS of infliximab and vedolizumab in moderate-to-severe UC, using baseline parameters. This can aid clinical decision-making in the framework of precision medicine, promising to optimize disease management while maintaining physician autonomy.

Treatment of Inflammatory Bowel Disease with Biologics in Japan: A Single-Center, Retrospective Pharmacoeconomic Study

Biologics are essential for treating inflammatory bowel disease (IBD); however, only a few studies have validated cost-effective treatment options and patient factors for biologic use using real-world data from Japanese patients with IBD. Here, we aimed to provide pharmacoeconomic evidence to support clinical decisions for IBD treatment using biologics. We assessed 183 cases (127 patients) of IBD treated with biologics between November 2004 and September 2021. Data on patient background, treatment other than biologics, treatment-related medical costs, and effectiveness index (ratio of the C-reactive protein-negative period to drug survival time) were analyzed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Drug survival was determined using Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis. The outcomes were to validate a novel assessment index and elucidate the following aspects using this index: the effectiveness-cost relationship of long-term biologic use in IBD and cost-effectiveness-associated patient factors. Body mass index ≥25 kg/m2 and duration of hypoalbuminemia during drug survival correlated significantly with the therapeutic effectiveness of biologics. There were no significant differences in surgical, granulocyte apheresis, or adverse-event costs per drug survival time. Biologic costs were significantly higher in the group showing lower effectiveness than in the group showing higher effectiveness. These findings hold major pharmacoeconomic implications for not only improving therapeutic outcomes through the amelioration of low albumin levels and obesity but also potentially reducing healthcare expenditure related to the use of biotherapeutics. To our knowledge, this is the first pharmacoeconomic study based on real-world data from Japanese patients with IBD receiving long-term biologic therapy.

HLA-DQA1*05 and upstream variants of PPARGC1B are associated with infliximab persistence in Japanese Crohn's disease patients

Recently, the HLA-DQA1*05 (rs2097432) genetic variation has been reported to be linked to early infliximab (IFX) treatment failure in the Caucasian Crohn's disease (CD) population, but that evidence is scarce in the Asian population. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between rs2097432 and the cumulative discontinuation-free time of IFX (IFX persistence) in 189 Japanese biologics-naive CD patients. We also performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) to discover novel genetic predictors for IFX persistence. The C allele of rs2097432 significantly increased the risk of early discontinuation of IFX [Hazard ratio (HR) = 2.23 and P-value = 0.026]. In GWAS, one locus tagged by rs73277969, located upstream of PPARGC1B which attenuates macrophage-mediated inflammation, reached genome-wide significance (HR = 6.04 and P-value = 7.93E-9). Pathway analysis suggested association of signaling by PDGF and FCGR activation signaling with IFX persistence (P-value = 8.56E-5 and 5.80E-4, respectively).

Vedolizumab Is Associated with Longer Drug Sustainability Compared to Infliximab in Moderate-to-Severe Ulcerative Colitis: Long-Term Real-World Cohort Data

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Drug sustainability (DS) is a surrogate marker for treatment efficacy. We aimed to compare the DS of two main biologics used to treat moderate-to-severe ulcerative colitis (UC), infliximab (IFX) and vedolizumab (VDZ), in a real-world setting.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study at a tertiary medical center in Israel. We included patients treated between 1 December 2017 and 1 May 2021, who were followed for up to 300 weeks. DS was defined as corticosteroid-, surgical-, and hospitalization-free treatment.

RESULTS

217 patients with UC were included. VDZ had a significantly longer median DS of 265.6 weeks compared to IFX's 106.5 weeks (p = 0.001) in treatment-naïve patients, even when adjusting for disease severity (HR 0.55 95 CI 0.3-0.98, p = 0.042). In treatment-experienced patients, DS was comparable between IFX and VDZ (p = 0.593).

CONCLUSIONS

VDZ showed significantly longer DS in treatment-naïve patients with UC compared to IFX, also when adjusted for disease severity. There was no difference in DS between VDZ and IFX in treatment-experienced patients and patients switching from one drug to another. VDZ may be a suitable first-line treatment for biologic-naïve patients with moderate-to-severe UC.

Prioritization in inflammatory bowel disease therapy

INTRODUCTION

Most guidelines for IBD still recommend step-by-step therapy with initially classic drugs such aminosalicylates (in ulcerative colitis) or steroids but avoid prioritizing certain biological drugs and JAK inhibitors in the complicated course. This review provides an aid to pending therapy decisions.

AREAS COVERED

In this review, we analyze the evidence for Crohn's disease as well as ulcerative colitis in order to optimize and 'personalize' the choice of therapy, especially in difficult cases. The relevant publications in Pubmed were identified in a continuous literature review with the key words 'Crohn´s disease' and 'ulcerative colitis.'

EXPERT OPINION

Based on this complex data set following standard therapies steroid-refractory Crohn´s disease should preferentially be treated with combined infliximab plus azathioprine or risankizumab, in second line after their failure with ustekinumab or 7adalimumab. In steroid-refractory ulcerative colitis infliximab plus azathioprine or upadacitinib should be preferred in first line, filgotinib, tofacitinib or ustekinumab in second line. A steroid-dependent course in both diseases requires azathioprine or vedolizumab, in second line infliximab or Janus kinase inhibitors. The conclusions drawn from these complex data may be helpful for individual decision making in daily clinical practice.

Ustekinumab Versus Anti-tumour Necrosis Factor Alpha Agents as Second-Line Biologics in Crohn's Disease

BACKGROUND

There are little data on positioning biologics in Crohn's disease (CD).

AIMS

We aimed to assess the comparative effectiveness and safety of ustekinumab vs tumour necrosis factor-alpha (anti-TNF) agents after first-line treatment with anti-TNF in CD.

METHODS

We used Swedish nationwide registers to identify patients with CD, exposed to anti-TNF who initiated second-line biologic treatment with ustekinumab or second-line anti-TNF therapy. Nearest neighbour 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) was used to balance the groups. The primary outcome was 3-year drug survival used as a proxy for effectiveness. Secondary outcomes included drug survival without hospital admission, CD-related surgery, antibiotics, hospitalization due to infection and exposure to corticosteroids.

RESULTS

Some 312 patients remained after PSM. Drug survival at 3 years was 35% (95% CI 26-44%) in ustekinumab compared to 36% (95% CI 28-44%) in anti-TNF-treated patients (p = 0.72). No statistically significant differences were observed between the groups in 3-year survival without hospital admission (72% vs 70%, p = 0.99), surgery (87% vs 92%, p = 0.17), hospital admission due to infection (92% vs 92%, p = 0.31) or prescription of antibiotics (49% vs 50%, p = 0.56). The proportion of patients continuing second-line biologic therapy did not differ by reason for ending first-line anti-TNF (lack of response vs intolerance) or by type of first-line anti-TNF (adalimumab vs infliximab).

CONCLUSION

Based on data from Swedish routine care, no clinically relevant differences in effectiveness or safety of second-line ustekinumab vs anti-TNF treatment were observed in patients with CD with prior exposure to anti-TNF.

MIF Variant rs755622 Is Associated with Severe Crohn's Disease and Better Response to Anti-TNF Adalimumab Therapy

Crohn's disease (CD), rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis and other inflammatory diseases comprise a group of chronic diseases with immune-mediated pathogenesis which share common pathological pathways, as well as treatment strategies including anti-TNF biologic therapy. However, the response rate to anti-TNF therapy among those diseases varies, and approximately one third of patients do not respond. Since pharmacogenetic studies for anti-TNF therapy have been more frequent for other related diseases and are rare in CD, the aim of our study was to further explore markers associated with anti-TNF response in other inflammatory diseases in Slovenian CD patients treated with the anti-TNF drug adalimumab (ADA). We enrolled 102 CD patients on ADA, for which the response was defined after 4, 12, 20 and 30 weeks of treatment, using an IBDQ questionnaire and blood CRP value. We genotyped 41 SNPs significantly associated with response to anti-TNF treatment in other diseases. We found novel pharmacogenetic association between SNP rs755622 in the gene MIF (macrophage migration inhibitory factor) and SNP rs3740691 in the gene ARFGAP2 in CD patients treated with ADA. The strongest and most consistent association with treatment response was found for the variant rs2275913 in gene IL17A (p = 9.73 × 10-3).