Long-term colorectal cancer incidence and mortality after adenoma removal in women and men

Chemokine- and chemokine receptor-based signature predicts immunotherapy response in female colorectal adenocarcinoma patients

The clinical significance and comprehensive characteristics of chemokines and chemokine receptors in female patients with advanced colorectal adenocarcinoma have not ever been reported. Our study explored the expression profiles of chemokines and chemokine receptors and constructed a chemokine- and chemokine receptor-based signature in female patients with advanced colorectal adenocarcinoma. Four independent cohorts containing 1335 patients were enrolled in our study. Univariate Cox regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) analyses were performed to construct the signature. CIBERSORT was used to evaluate the landscape of immune cell infiltration. Thirty-two pairs of tissue specimens of female advanced colorectal cancer (CRC) patients and two CRC cell lines were used to validate the signature in vitro. Quantitative real-time PCR and western blotting were performed to validate the mRNA and protein expression levels of signature genes. EdU and colony formation assays were performed to examine proliferative ability. Transwell and wound healing assays were used to evaluate cell invasion and migration capacity. During the signature construction and validation process, we found that the signature was more applicable to female patients with advanced colorectal adenocarcinoma. Hence, the subsequent study mainly focused on the particular subgroup. Enrichment analyses revealed that the signature was closely related to immunity. The landscape of immune cell infiltration presented that the signature was significantly associated with T cells CD8 and neutrophils. Gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) confirmed that the high-risk group was chiefly enriched in the tumor-promoting related pathways and biological processes, whereas the low-risk group was mainly enriched in anti-tumor immune response pathways and biological processes. The signature was closely correlated with CTLA4, PDL1, PDL2, TMB, MSI, and TIDE, indicating that our signature could serve as a robust biomarker for immunotherapy and chemotherapy response. ROC curves verified that our signature had more robust prognostic power than all immune checkpoints and immunotherapy-related biomarkers. Finally, we used 32 pairs of tissue specimens and 2 CRC cell lines to validate our signature in vitro. We first provided a robust prognostic chemokine- and chemokine receptor-based signature, which could serve as a novel biomarker for immunotherapy and chemotherapy response to guide individualized treatment for female patients with advanced colorectal adenocarcinoma.

Risk Prediction of Metachronous Colorectal Cancer from Molecular Features of Adenomas: A Nested Case-Control Study

Current morphologic features defining advanced adenomas (size ≥10 mm, high-grade dysplasia or ≥25% villous component) cannot optimally distinguish individuals at high risk or low risk of metachronous colorectal cancer (me-CRC), which may result in suboptimal surveillance. Certain DNA copy-number alterations (CNAs) are associated with adenoma-to-carcinoma progression. We aimed to evaluate whether these molecular features can better predict an individual's risk of me-CRC than the morphologic advanced adenoma features.In this nested case-control study, 529 individuals with a single adenoma at first colonoscopy were selected from a Norwegian adenoma cohort. DNA copy-number profiles were determined, by low-coverage whole-genome sequencing. Prevalence of CNAs in advanced and non-advanced adenomas and its association (OR) with me-CRC was assessed. For the latter, cases (with me-CRC) were matched to controls (without me-CRC) on follow-up, age and sex.CNAs associated with adenoma-to-carcinoma progression were observed in 85/267 (32%) of advanced adenomas and in 27/262 (10%) of non-advanced adenomas. me-CRC was statistically significantly associated, also after adjustment for other variables, with age at baseline [OR, 1.14; 95% confidence interval CI), 1.03-1.26; P = 0.012], advanced adenomas (OR, 2.46; 95% CI, 1.50-4.01; P < 0.001) and with the presence of ≥3 DNA copy-number losses (OR, 1.90; 95% CI. 1.02-3.54; P = 0.043).Molecularly-defined high-risk adenomas were associated with me-CRC, but the association of advanced adenoma with me-CRC was stronger.

SIGNIFICANCE

Identifying new biomarkers may improve prediction of me-CRC for individuals with adenomas and optimize surveillance intervals to reduce risk of colorectal cancer and reduce oversurveillance of patients with low risk of colorectal cancer. Use of DNA CNAs alone does not improve prediction of me-CRC. Further research to improve risk classification is required.

A Comparison of Risk Classification Systems of Colorectal Adenomas: A Case-Cohort Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Because post-polypectomy surveillance uses a growing proportion of colonoscopy capacity, more targeted surveillance is warranted. We therefore compared surveillance burden and cancer detection using 3 different adenoma classification systems.

METHODS

In a case-cohort study among individuals who had adenomas removed between 1993 and 2007, we included 675 individuals with colorectal cancer (cases) diagnosed a median of 5.6 years after adenoma removal and 906 randomly selected individuals (subcohort). We compared colorectal cancer incidence among high- and low-risk individuals defined according to the traditional (high-risk: diameter ≥10 mm, high-grade dysplasia, villous growth pattern, or 3 or more adenomas), European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE) 2020 (high-risk: diameter ≥10 mm, high-grade dysplasia, or 5 or more adenomas), and novel (high-risk: diameter ≥20 mm or high-grade dysplasia) classification systems. For the different classification systems, we calculated the number of individuals recommended frequent surveillance colonoscopy and estimated number of delayed cancer diagnoses.

RESULTS

Four hundred and thirty individuals with adenomas (52.7%) were high risk based on the traditional classification, 369 (45.2%) were high risk based on the ESGE 2020 classification, and 220 (27.0%) were high risk based on the novel classification. Using the traditional, ESGE 2020, and novel classifications, the colorectal cancer incidences per 100,000 person-years were 479, 552, and 690 among high-risk individuals, and 123, 124, and 179 among low-risk individuals, respectively. Compared with the traditional classification, the number of individuals who needed frequent surveillance was reduced by 13.9% and 44.2%, respectively, and 1 (3.4%) and 7 (24.1%) cancer diagnoses were delayed using the ESGE 2020 and novel classifications.

CONCLUSIONS

Using the ESGE 2020 and novel risk classifications will substantially reduce resources needed for colonoscopy surveillance after adenoma removal.

Risk factor analysis of malignant adenomas detected during colonoscopy

Background

Several studies have shown that colorectal adenomas are the most important precancerous lesions. The colonoscopic identification of groups with the high risk of malignant colorectal adenomas remains a controversial issue for clinicians.

Aims

To evaluate the basic characteristics of colorectal adenomas with malignancy risk using high-grade dysplasia (HGD) as an alternative marker for malignant transformation.

Methods

Data from Shanghai General Hospital between January 2017 and December 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. The primary outcome was the incidence of HGD in adenomas, which was used as a surrogate marker for the risk of malignancy. Odds ratios (ORs) for the HGD rate in adenomas were analyzed in relation to adenoma-related factors.

Results

A total of 9,646 patients identified with polyps during 57,445 screening colonoscopies were included in the study. Patients with flat polyps, sessile polyps, and pedunculated polyps represented 27.3% (N = 2,638), 42.7% (N = 4,114), and 30.0% (N = 2,894) of the total number, respectively. HGD was found in 2.41% (N = 97), 0.92% (N = 24), and 3.51% (N = 98) of sessile adenomas, flat adenomas, and pedunculated adenomas, respectively (P < 0.001). Multivariable logistic regression showed that polyp size (P < 0.001) but not shape (P > 0.8), was an independent predictor of HGD. Contrast to the diameter ≤1 cm, the OR value for diameters 1-2, 2-3, and >3 cm was 13.9, 49.3, and 161.6, respectively. The HGD incidence also increased in multiple adenomas (>3 vs. >1, ORs 1.582) and distal adenomas (distal vs. proximal adenomas, OR 2.252). Adenoma morphology (pedunculated vs. flat) was statistically significant in univariate analysis but not when size was included in the multivariate analysis. Besides, the incidence of HGD was also significantly higher in older patients (>64 vs. <50 years old, OR = 2.129). Sex (P = 0.681) was not statistically significant. All these associations were statistically significant (P < 0.05).

Conclusion

The malignant potential of polyps is mostly affected by their size but not by their shape. In addition, distal location, multiple adenomas, and advanced age were also correlated with malignant transformation.

Coupé VM. A progressive three-state model to estimate time to cancer: a likelihood-based approach

Background

To optimize colorectal cancer (CRC) screening and surveillance, information regarding the time-dependent risk of advanced adenomas (AA) to develop into CRC is crucial. However, since AA are removed after diagnosis, the time from AA to CRC cannot be observed in an ethically acceptable manner. We propose a statistical method to indirectly infer this time in a progressive three-state disease model using surveillance data.

Methods

Sixteen models were specified, with and without covariates. Parameters of the parametric time-to-event distributions from the adenoma-free state (AF) to AA and from AA to CRC were estimated simultaneously, by maximizing the likelihood function. Model performance was assessed via simulation. The methodology was applied to a random sample of 878 individuals from a Norwegian adenoma cohort.

Results

Estimates of the parameters of the time distributions are consistent and the 95% confidence intervals (CIs) have good coverage. For the Norwegian sample (AF: 78%, AA: 20%, CRC: 2%), a Weibull model for both transition times was selected as the final model based on information criteria. The mean time among those who have made the transition to CRC since AA onset within 50 years was estimated to be 4.80 years (95% CI: 0; 7.61). The 5-year and 10-year cumulative incidence of CRC from AA was 13.8% (95% CI: 7.8%;23.8%) and 15.4% (95% CI: 8.2%;34.0%), respectively.

Conclusions

The time-dependent risk from AA to CRC is crucial to explain differences in the outcomes of microsimulation models used for the optimization of CRC prevention. Our method allows for improving models by the inclusion of data-driven time distributions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at (10.1186/s12874-022-01645-2).